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Post Post #6525 (ISO) » Tue Nov 30, 2021 10:32 pm

Post by mastina »

So the eight possibilities I found for Pooky's suggested shot on Gypyx going through accidentally are:

1:
Pooky didn't read who his scumbuddies were
.
This might seem impossible--after all, if scumbuddies are in the role PM, how can Pooky miss who his scumbuddies are?
Well that's the thing.
"if" scumbuddies are in the role PM is just that--an IF.
A lot of mods don't include scumbuddies in the actual role PM. (It's a security risk because it makes it easier to fuck up and post the entire scumteam accidentally. Or at least I assume that's their logic? That or they're just more lazy. I always put the full scumteam in the role PMs, but only ~33-40% of mods do, and the other 60-66% don't.)

It's quite possible for Pooky to have legitimately not known Gypyx was his scumbuddy when he suggested the Gypyx shot.

He could of course have learned this after the suggestion.

2:
Pooky could have misread or misremember who his scumbuddies were
.
Now admittedly--during the night, this is less likely, but it could happen if Pooky wasn't actively checking the scum PT. If he read who his scumbuddies were wrong or misremembered, he could have thought Gypyx wasn't scum.

3:
Pooky misspoke to SirCakez
(yes, this is the "basically a typo" one, Pooky).
Pooky could have said Gypyx while intending to have said a different name, accidentally suggesting the shot on a scumbuddy when intending to have not done so.

4:
Pooky's scumteam misread their role PMs
.
As an example of how this works, it'd be fully possible for them to have accidentally thought Dwlee was the roleblocker and imaginality the rolestopper, rather than vice-versa. It's an easy mistake to make, and has a certain logic to it, if they roleblocked accidentally Gypyx intending for it to be a rolestop and rolestopped me accidentally intending for it to be a roleblock.

Pooky would like to point out that he wouldn't let a mistake like that slide--but he was a
replacement
, meaning he had 48 hours
at most
to talk with his team, and he might not have had full access to his scumbuddies' role PMs to know what they were. (Many mods do not post the entirety of the scumteams' role PMs to the scum PT. I'm one of the few who does, but this is another 33-40% thing.) If he didn't have access to their role PMs, how would he be able to correct his scumbuddies' mistakes? Especially in the limited timeframe?

5:
Gypyx attempted to steal Pooky's role, but it failed due to being not solely his
.
This actually fits
remarkably
well as a Big Brain type play that seems 5head which backfires horribly by the scum not actually being able to do what they thought they were going to do.

Basically, Gypyx had the power to steal a scumbuddy's role for a night.

Pooky suggested a vig of Gypyx.

If Gypyx tried to steal Pooky's role, the theory behind that I think you can figure out: the vig shot on Gypyx would fail, and instead, Gypyx would have a vig shot of his own to use, granting the scum a double-kill and causing the vig to fail to kill scum.

Depending on whether the vig would be used N1 or N2, this could feed into Gypyx making a fakeclaim, like "I eat the first action to target me and use it the next night" (similar, but not identical, to my role, and actually a real role which has been used in a game before!), or claim redirector, deflector, some sort of action-redirection, or Gypyx could even feign ignorance and say that someone must have redirected the shot off of him.

If this interaction is something scum thought of, the theory behind it is actually
brilliant
--but with the, in hindsight, flaw of not being able to actually steal the vig away and prevent the kill.

Pooky would probably again argue: "I would catch that glaring flaw with the plan and prevent it".
But I would like to say: a
maximum
of 48 hours. MAXIMUM. In a THREE-WAY conversation.
There's a conversation with SirCakez.
There's a conversation with scumbuddies.
There's a conversation with the mod.

And there's delays between them.

As an example, if SirCakez asked Pooky who he wanted to vig 8 hours into the night, suddenly, that 48 hour window? Has shrunk from 48 hours down to 40. If SirCakez asked 12 hours into the night, suddenly, that 48 hour window? Has shrunk down from 48 hours down to 36. When SirCakez asked Pooky who to vig plays a huge part in how much time scum would have to coordinate a plan and think it through.

Then we get to, mechanics players are not omnipotent and are not going to think of everything and necessarily ask the right questions to the mod. Thinking of the plan is easy enough; thinking of the glaring flaw in the plan is not guaranteed. Even IF Pooky thought about the flaw (which is not guaranteed), it depends on the questions he'd then ask to the mod. He could have gotten an answer back from the mod that made him THINK the plan would work, but due to bad wording, it didn't. Or maybe there was too much of a delay between asking and receiving a response.

If Pooky asked a question of the mod at 18 hours before deadline for instance, the mod might not answer until 4 hours before the deadline--meaning that the flaw in the plan might not show up...until too late to change it.

6:
The scumteam could have tried the 'submit from scum PT' trick
.
What's the trick?

Well basically.

In the vig PT, there would be a submit of vigging Gypyx.
After this was submitted, the scum could have then attempted to, in the scum PT, submit,
"
Pooky vigs *player who isn't Gypyx*
", with the intention of overriding the vig PT action.

If this worked, it would have the effect of making SirCakez
think
that
their
kill failed, but that somehow, a second kill went through, leaving him with the (false) impression that there were three killing sources rather than two. And to be fair, this approach is something that, for some mods, would in fact work! If Pooky is a scum vig then submitting his scum vig through the scum PT would normally be an acceptable method...but, because it's a joint vig, obviously, that would present more of a problem.

The scumteam may not have realized this problem until it was too late.

7:
The scumteam lacked coordination
.
This is rather simple. Pooky would tell the scumteam about the plan to vig Gypyx, and the scumteam would try to plan their actions, but they changed their submitted night actions multiple times. In one version, the scum would have protected Gypyx, but due to poor coordination, in the
final
version that the mod accepted, Gypyx was not protected and thus, died.

This could easily happen from the scumteam wanting, for instance, to have Pooky change the vig so that they could use their other roles, but it didn't come together.

8:
The scumteam used a roleblock to try and protect Gypyx
.
This one's not as likely because Titus's N1 failure is unexplained, but it's possible the scumteam tried to roleblock SirCakez, but the vig went through due to it being a joint action.

9:
The scumteam just missed the deadline for submitting the appropriate Gypyx-surviving actions
.
Maybe the scumteam DID have a plan to save Gypyx...but they didn't get the actions in before the deadline, so the mod had to use the actions submitted at deadline which didn't protect Gypyx.

Again, I'd like to point out--Pooky only had 48 hours if he is scum to get in synch with his scumteam, WHILE ALSO mutitasking via engaging with SirCakez. Pooky only had 48 hours to coordinate everything. That's not a lot of time. So maybe the scumteam had a huge big brain strategy they wanted to enact. And then they just...didn't get it in on time. Which can and does happen.

Now, most of these are actually not entirely mutually exclusive, either.

Pooky could have initially not seen who his scumbuddy was, then later needed to course correct with a plan intended to keep the vig on Gypyx without backtracking but make it fail, as an example.

The scumteam could have misread their role PMs, then corrected them, but not had the time to change their actions before the end of N1, as an example.

The scumteam could have come up with the plan for #5, asked the mod, wasted 12 hours on it, have the mod tell them it wouldn't work, switch to #6, waste another 12 hours on it, have the mod tell them it wouldn't work, and scramble in the last 24 hours and fail to get in the Gypyx protection strategy.

You get the idea, but like.

There's quite a lot of ways for Pooky to have accidentally led to Gypyx's death, a lot of them not necessarily contradicting each other as it's possible like 2-4 of them happened in the scum PT N1.
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Post Post #6526 (ISO) » Tue Nov 30, 2021 10:33 pm

Post by mastina »

In post 6524, mastina wrote:(prolly not doing the Pooky-lean but I'm about to pagetop the why-Pooky-could-accidentally-vig-Gypyx)
(that is to say, not tonight--it'll probably be tomorrow night. Which will be at deadline, but. I'll get it in.)
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Post Post #6527 (ISO) » Wed Dec 01, 2021 2:56 am

Post by PookyTheMagicalBear »

wow I went from cunning scum mastermind to bumbling buffoon p fast

mastina so mean >.<
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That evil teddy bear has got everyone twirling by his thumb.
It's like witnessing an slow but unavoidable train crash you can't stop."

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Post Post #6528 (ISO) » Wed Dec 01, 2021 3:56 am

Post by SirCakez »

here now I have two hours free
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Post Post #6529 (ISO) » Wed Dec 01, 2021 3:58 am

Post by SirCakez »

In post 6478, Milobird wrote:You realize part of pookys case is I helped bell graduate from being bad scum lol

My point was- Pooky is convinced we are scum, yet spent most of the day saying he wanted to no elim purely off of what you guys had talked about earlier. Isn’t that strange that he just outright agreed? Like he outright agreed there, despite his unwavering conviction that last scum is bell and I
i'm not seeing whatever you're pointing out here
ig I can see the argument for no lim here but I think it's dumb
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Post Post #6530 (ISO) » Wed Dec 01, 2021 3:59 am

Post by SirCakez »

In post 6479, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:Yes because it makes so much sense for scum!me to want no elim.

so I can watch cakes who is undecided die at night and then mastina who is leaning towards voting me gets to make the decision

that is certainly an excellent point. *clap clap*
except what if mastina just gets NKed here and we get into a huge mess of WIFOM
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Post Post #6531 (ISO) » Wed Dec 01, 2021 4:01 am

Post by SirCakez »

In post 6491, mastina wrote:(Yes, said Vig was Pooky, but I have my concerns about clearing him for this.)
can you elaborate on this?
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Post Post #6532 (ISO) » Wed Dec 01, 2021 4:01 am

Post by SirCakez »

In post 6498, mastina wrote:
In post 6492, mastina wrote:WAIT I JUST HAD A BREAKTHROUGH WITH THE VIG ON GYPYX.

I THINK that IT COULD be a CASE of SCUM FU CKING UP A GAMBIT.

will explain latero.
Basically.
We've been assuming the whole time that Pooky intentionally said to Vig Gypyx and that the death of Gypyx was an intentional gambit, if Pooky is scum.

…But I can think of no less than FIVE different ways that it could be ACCIDENTAL.

Pooky is right that him vigging Gypyx goes against standards.

But if it was an accident, the Pooky scum narrative changes from,
"Pooky vigged a partner deliberately, going against meta", to:
Pooky was in his meta, scum just made a mistake, with Pooky as conftown being damage control".

Which is more plausible to me.
?????????????
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Post Post #6533 (ISO) » Wed Dec 01, 2021 4:06 am

Post by SirCakez »

ig nolim is the best plan here just to get more time
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Post Post #6534 (ISO) » Wed Dec 01, 2021 4:08 am

Post by Milobird »

I personally subscribe to the Gyphx asked pooky to shoot him hypothesis.
But it would be funny if they big brain goofed.

-Bell
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Post Post #6535 (ISO) » Wed Dec 01, 2021 4:09 am

Post by SirCakez »

the night one convo with pooky was literally this

cakez - hi pooky i can talk to you now
I don't really know what's going on but we got scum woolax
do you want to vig now?
we should use it bc if someone dies we can't use it anymore
chow and imaginality look scummy

pooky - i haven't read you pick target
ralts looks scummy (LMFAO)

cakez - lol
look at imaginality, KTT, chow
i think Milo is scummy but too scared to shoot them
Goat was shootable but Titus took over the slot
this night is really long
gypyx might be a good target too his iso sucks
i want to shoot imaginality or gypyx

pooky - "shoots Gypyx"
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Post Post #6536 (ISO) » Wed Dec 01, 2021 4:10 am

Post by SirCakez »

I forgot that I made a post saying I wanted to shoot imaginality or Gypyx
obv Gypyx is the better one to shoot there if you're scum
but Pooky didn't even try to push for chow or Goat slot or KTT who were all town options
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Post Post #6537 (ISO) » Wed Dec 01, 2021 4:11 am

Post by SirCakez »

a lot of the PT was just us raging out every night after Koba led us to mislim after mislim and swearing we would lim them the next day and then we finally did it yesterday lol
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Post Post #6538 (ISO) » Wed Dec 01, 2021 4:13 am

Post by SirCakez »

man I just reread the PT and I get townvibes from Pooky all over the place :/
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Post Post #6539 (ISO) » Wed Dec 01, 2021 4:13 am

Post by SirCakez »

would Pooky really accidentally say to vig the prior person in his slot as scum?? I feel like he'd be more aware than that as scum
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Post Post #6540 (ISO) » Wed Dec 01, 2021 4:14 am

Post by SirCakez »

i'm gonna reread Milo now
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Post Post #6541 (ISO) » Wed Dec 01, 2021 4:14 am

Post by SirCakez »

fucking hell they have 1000 posts
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Post Post #6542 (ISO) » Wed Dec 01, 2021 4:15 am

Post by Milobird »

He was giving you a hint bro.
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Post Post #6543 (ISO) » Wed Dec 01, 2021 4:16 am

Post by SirCakez »

how so?
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Post Post #6544 (ISO) » Wed Dec 01, 2021 4:16 am

Post by Milobird »

Just town bin us. Cabd says i can’t make more than 50 posts per day phase as scum, he’s wrong I can totally do 51, but he has a point.
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Post Post #6545 (ISO) » Wed Dec 01, 2021 4:18 am

Post by SirCakez »

pretty much everything today is not really readable because everyone is turned up to eleven right now
that's why I've been wanting to do this reread for so long
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Post Post #6546 (ISO) » Wed Dec 01, 2021 4:19 am

Post by Milobird »

In post 6543, SirCakez wrote:how so?
Even I think what I just said was dumb. So never mind. :/
I don’t really think the observation that ralt’s is scummy absolves him.
There was a tell called the Amish tell which was basically that scum tend to read their own predecessor’s posts because they need to know their own standing while town don’t really care.
It wasn’t very accurate.
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Post Post #6547 (ISO) » Wed Dec 01, 2021 4:21 am

Post by Milobird »

In post 6545, SirCakez wrote:pretty much everything today is not really readable because everyone is turned up to eleven right now
that's why I've been wanting to do this reread for so long
This is extremely wrong headed. Plenty of people spew town at the end when before they were barely readable.
Titus I think even makes a habit of fake panicking as scum in elo to capture that feeling.
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Post Post #6548 (ISO) » Wed Dec 01, 2021 4:23 am

Post by SirCakez »

In post 6547, Milobird wrote:
In post 6545, SirCakez wrote:pretty much everything today is not really readable because everyone is turned up to eleven right now
that's why I've been wanting to do this reread for so long
This is extremely wrong headed. Plenty of people spew town at the end when before they were barely readable.
Titus I think even makes a habit of fake panicking as scum in elo to capture that feeling.
ok but I feel like both Pooky and you have been townspewing like crazy today and obviously one of you is not legit here so I need to go to where I can find something useful
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Post Post #6549 (ISO) » Wed Dec 01, 2021 4:24 am

Post by Milobird »

Like, if you wanna read our shit posts go ahead, but my most recent posts I would argue are actually the most revealing.
It would be interesting to see a player reread my iso though, I’ve never had a player really do that. So I won’t really discourage it beyond saying what I said.

Just know it’s in pooky’s interest for you to do what you just said as his argument this day phase is basically “plz ignore Town Bell becoming town plasma, it’s a trick”
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