Functionally, I think that my prior idea that the scumteam has been mostly posturing throughout the game is correct. I'm fully expecting that the scumteam are planning or at least is not averse to creating one SvS pair (which in a game like this with four scum instead of three, is significantly more powerful than four TvS pairs). I personally think the scumteam aren't really planning around making a SvS pair, or they already would have probably done so. I strongly suspect that the scumteam are instead attempting to create poisoned pairings with players that otherwise would be threats towards the scumteam reaching endgame in the second dance.
It's particularly interesting to me because the first real indicator that I saw towards scum making any serious moves was that initial push by several people towards being partnered with LLD, almost to the point that it was more popular to do so rather than not. This in particular is a huge red flag to me because LLD is a player that is good at channeling confidence and pressure onto other slots and is a player I definitely wouldn't say is lying about being willing to leave the dance if she suspects she has a scum partner. I have particular thoughts I will get into a bit later about her scuffle with GuiltyLion, but what I strongly suspect is happening is that the scumteam are attempting to take advantage of this likely incorrect read to either pocket her and use her as an avenue to get their own agenda across (effectively poisoning her contribution to the game) or even to just get her to remove herself entirely from the game. I've been noticing that a lot of these same slots doing this are also saying they would also pair with me, which is making me wonder if I'm also another target for this. This somewhat insinuates that the scumteam has a member that both sees me as a threat and has some knowledge on how to play around me, but that doesn't necessarily incriminate any particular person in this playerlist even if it does happen to be correct.
But, it does tell me that the scumteam are very likely focusing on dividing town up and poisoning the well. I don't think the scumteam are making any particularly aggressive moves, which means they are probably looking to play the slow game and avoid town getting too much from any one particular flip than anything else. They're playing safer than that.
But what this does mean is that there are some reads that are more likely correct, namely that this likely means Cabd was indeed scum that was too brazen in enacting this. This means GuiltyLion is likely town (technically it's
possible
that this can indicate Cabd as town and GuiltyLion as scum, but that's a tinfoil theory that's not all that likely to be true compared to the much simpler explanation). I don't think this means that LLD-slot is necessarily scum or that Prism-slot is necessarily town. I think the LLD slot is actually more likely to be town still, but it makes me significantly less comfortable keeping that slot past the intermission stage of the game. While Titus is one of the strongest enabler players as town in this playerlist, I don't think that overshadows the worth that knowing the alignment of that slot gives. Regardless of who Titus winds up pairing with, I don't think that pairing should ever reach intermission.
I think that likely one of marcistar and RH9 is scum, considering that the two of them are the ones I most distinctly remember doing this potential posturing. I don't find it super likely that both are scum, but it is possible.
I don't think that both marcistar and angielily are scum, but I find it likely that one is.
I do still believe that Firebringer+Andante are TvT
I'm going to pretend that Ydrasse doesn't exist in a read sense since her alignment is effectively irrelevant until post-intermission assuming that pairing survives intermission.
I think that Catboi is likely town from this, but I'm not entirely sure since I could see a world where Catboi could have pivoted towards attempting to pocket me using the Cabd thing as a springboard. I admit I'm also really not sure how to take the trajectory towards looking to pair with me in the first place.
I still think Datisi is town. Galron I want to say is town, but I don't know enough about him to be able to assess how likely I am to read him accurately. Save the Dragons and Malakittens I have no true read on, but shot in the dark logic is that Malakittens is town.
