Open 840 - Guardians of the Fortress [Game Over]

[Aristeia]

well of course we will read everyone else b4 we leave

we can resolve our game first if you would like that?

[Tanner]

you know i don't like rushing decisions.

[implosion]

hello!

I think this setup is 100% fated to have approximately two people who go somewhere early and then a bunch of people being annoyed at them.

[Lukewarm]

i said i want to go to the keep specifically so i can get voted - i'm unsure why you're showing this compassion considering that?

Because getting locked out of your top pick is a bit annoyng, and that is what happened to me last game. I am not sure why you wanting to get voted should make me less inclined to letting you into the keep. Am I missing something?

I believe that the best strat for the Keep is to collectively, meaning everyone not just the people in the keep, to chose who we think is most likely to be scum, and then give that player the choice of who they are going to vote between the other two.

So, this mini games will play out one of a few ways:

The scum is given vote power, and we always win.
I am given vote power, and I am trying to read the other two (functionally the same as being the IC in the gate)
The other townie in the keep is given vote power, and I have to town it up. I am at least somewhat confident in my ability to do that.

You being in there with me versus someone else does not drastically change any of those I don't think?

[implosion]

hm. my hope was to bring two scummiest people to the keep with me. if we're right on them both being scum, scum will be forced to move one of them, which would greatly help us. of course, wifom is a thing, and this whole operation rests on the assumption that people will collectively townread me, so we'll see.

This kind of logic that centers oneself is, I think, not the most useful in this setup.

The prima facie "right thing" in this setup imo is to collectively sort all 9 players from town->scum and then put the 3 towniest, 3 middle, and 3 scummiest in the same place. If you are town and think you will be very obviously town, it's a bad idea to put yourself with two very scummy people; better to put those two scummy people with a third scummy person. This way even if we're wrong about one of those three being scum, we'd need to be wrong about

two

of them in order to be wrong about the person that moved out of that area having to be scum. There's even the off-chance we get a day one win, though it shouldn't be counted on. If you think you will be super town, and join two scummy people, if we're wrong about just one of those two people then it's easy for scum to swap them out and muck with us.

I am quite excited to be able to actually talk about the setup productively (since the other time I played this setup I drew scum).

[implosion]

I don't think that people should be locking in right away

VOTE: keep

So probably don't do that lol

This is mildly towny.

Scum would want to make sure they end up in different places, so "I'll go where ever is left" seems townie I think.

I'm pretty sure I talked like that as scum when I played the setup. I think this is more personality-based than alignment-based. But jumps themselves can absolutely be indicative. Actions speak louder than words in this setup.

[Lukewarm]

since the other time I played this setup I drew scum

I did not realize that there was another old running of this game - might look at that at some point, but that is not a thing that will happen today lol

[Lukewarm]

(on that note, lukewarm, we played together in the mini normal that tris modded.)

Oh, your dats lol.

That same game is my only experience with Ari as well.

[Tanner]

@lukewarm, i'm trying to brute-force my own vote through. more specifically, my idea was me + two scummiest people. the fact that you jumped into the keep yourself meant that either you're volunteering yourself to be one of the scummy people (unlikely) or that you have no interest in me making that plan a reality. if the latter is the case, that means i have no reason to volunteer to the keep anymore because my strategy is gone. so the "tanner won't be able to go to the keep then" is completely misplaced; i

already

don't want to go to the keep. and the fact you didn't connect that feels kiiiind of like scum more worried about keeping up appearances than a townie critically thinking about what i'm saying.

@implosion, the main point about my strategy was the fact that it would give us an easy win in one game, and allow us some breathing room to win another one more easily. i never intended to treat the swap as an investigation tool. especially not in a 3v6 game where there are a lot of people i don't have good ways of reading, i'm flat out assuming that any poe or collective readslist we come up with on day one won't be very good.

[implosion]

A brief summary of the other run of this setup and lessons learned from it from a scum perspective, at the risk of muddying the waters:

1) as I said, actions speak louder than words. I saw an opportunity to justify a jump that forced all three locations to have 2 town 1 scum in that game and I took it, and I got a lot of flak for it, correctly so.
2) I still won my minigame because it was the Gate and the cleared townie was more or less too far into wifom to listen to the soft majority of the rest of the town who I think would have preferred to lim me.
3) We were set up to win the keep too, but we ultimately lost it as well as the wall because the info from me flipping and from backward speculation about what scum would have done was extremely powerful.

Basically the main thing to keep in mind is, as this game goes forward, it's more important than most setups to be willing to change your reads. If you're willing to change your reads in response to new information it makes the scumteam's lives

drastically

more complicated.

[VP Baltar]

Can I get a link to the scum PT the other time this ran? I'd like to read the thought process there.

[Aristeia]

i like implos strategy

also if we r throwing the three scummiest into the same spot, it doesnt actually matter which spot we throw them into.

[imaginality]

Hi all.

I'm slightly suspicious of Aristeia because second vote in a location is convenient for scum to ensure they're split (if the first vote is town). Making a big deal about planning to vote Tanner makes less sense from scum though as it more or less locks them into swapping one of them.

hm. my hope was to bring two scummiest people to the keep with me. if we're right on them both being scum, scum will be forced to move one of them, which would greatly help us.

That seems like a strategy that would work for any location, not keep-specific?

I'll go where I'm told to go. The game looked like an interesting exercise in ways to play out MeLo. I have absolutely zero preference in where I end up.

Not caring where you go is good but 'where I'm told to go' seems a little passive, letting others direct rather than aiming to influence the discussion. Are you typically passive as town?

I highly doubt both Luke and Ari are scum both going Keep this early. Either T/T or T/S. Two scum going to the same location right away doesn't make any sense to me.

Agreed, it seems like it would limit scum's options a lot to lock two scum in so soon.

I would not be opposed to Toog coming to the keep with me an Ari. They are the only two people on this player list I have ever played with, so might help us read each other ?

I like this, though remember we share the same game thread so people can weigh in on the other minigames.
I think being willing to have a player who knows you at the same location as you is towny though since they will have power to vote or not vote you.

hm. i would say aristeia is still >rand town. scum!aristeia is basically forced to either flat-out lose one minigame, or use the night swap on me. and the second might not always be possible. it feels like limiting options for scum for... zero gain.

She could use the night swap on her to appear towny in whatever minigame she's swapped into. That seems like a reasonable play as scum? And also could just be hoping Tanner doesn't actually end up in Keep anyhow.

Have I played with anyone here before? I recognize a few names but I can't remember if those were games I modded or played in. Though maybe it's a moot point since idk if I'd be able to read them well even if I did have player experience with someone here.

So all that said, I'm fine not picking where I go. I have no real preference for which location I'm in.

I'm slightly suspicious of this very 'nothing' initial post.
@numberQ, any early reads?

-
Reminder to myself to figure out why post 72 seems interesting to me for some reason.
-

VP Baltar, what game were we in together?

P-edit: implosion's thoughts re how we divide ourselves up make sense. We can sort of still do that even with two players committed. The problem of course is getting consensus about who is most/least town!

Would it be useful if we agreed that the remaining players go somewhere another player nominates them to go? Might help with solving the final minigames once some of the nominating players have flipped?

[VP Baltar]

If you're willing to change your reads in response to new information it makes the scumteam's lives drastically more complicated.

Good news! I never know what the fuck I'm doing and everyone looks like scum in my paranoid brain!

[implosion]

here's the old game.
here's the old scum PT.

[Aristeia]

actually it kind of does matter

i am wrong about that

but it is still nice to try

[VP Baltar]

VP Baltar, what game were we in together?

Feel like we definitely played together many years ago. I couldn't tell you the game though. Definitely not saying I can read you, was just listing people I am pretty sure I've played with before.

[VP Baltar]

here's the old game.
here's the old scum PT.

Thank ya

[Tanner]

implo's openness about the setup *feels* townie. have any of the players here also played in that run? if not, then i think there's no reason for implo to do this.

[Tanner]

That seems like a strategy that would work for any location, not keep-specific?

[snip]

She could use the night swap on her to appear towny in whatever minigame she's swapped into. That seems like a reasonable play as scum? And also could just be hoping Tanner doesn't actually end up in Keep anyhow.

sure, the "if two scum are here, they have to swap one of them" could work on any location. but my main point, again, is that keep is the only minigame where we need to find only one town to win. even if we're wrong on one of those scummy-looking people being scum, we don't have to spend energy sorting them out.

not if scum is forced to use their swap between the other two minigames.

[imaginality]

Okay I see the added value of that strategy if it's on the Keep. Though it might be moot as Lukewarm and Ari have limited our options to apply it unless we strongly scumread either or both of them.

[Toogeloo]

i like implos strategy

also if we r throwing the three scummiest into the same spot, it doesnt actually matter which spot we throw them into.

Do you think Luke is town?

[Toogeloo]

Are you typically passive as town?

I'm not a leader, but I am impulsive.

[Lukewarm]

@lukewarm, i'm trying to brute-force my own vote through. more specifically, my idea was me + two scummiest people. the fact that you jumped into the keep yourself meant that either you're volunteering yourself to be one of the scummy people (unlikely) or that you have no interest in me making that plan a reality. if the latter is the case, that means i have no reason to volunteer to the keep anymore because my strategy is gone. so the "tanner won't be able to go to the keep then" is completely misplaced; i already don't want to go to the keep. and the fact you didn't connect that feels kiiiind of like scum more worried about keeping up appearances than a townie critically thinking about what i'm saying.

I kinda locked into the keep before I read any of the posts made in game at that point.

I see your suggested plan, but I did not realize that you wanting to go to the keep was contingent on us all agreeing to go with it. I guess since the keep is my top choice, I kinda assumed you might still have it as your top choice sans-plan

If you don't want the keep anymore, then I will take back my take back in 47

[implosion]

That seems like a strategy that would work for any location, not keep-specific?

[snip]

She could use the night swap on her to appear towny in whatever minigame she's swapped into. That seems like a reasonable play as scum? And also could just be hoping Tanner doesn't actually end up in Keep anyhow.

sure, the "if two scum are here, they have to swap one of them" could work on any location. but my main point, again, is that keep is the only minigame where we need to find only one town to win. even if we're wrong on one of those scummy-looking people being scum, we don't have to spend energy sorting them out.

not if scum is forced to use their swap between the other two minigames.

The flip side is that doing this means the remaining two locations are the ones that are harder for town to win.

I think there's almost no strategies that strictly increase town's EV from a random-choices perspective. I think there's mostly just strategies that are better or worse at leveraging different kinds of correct reads.

I want to call VP and Tanner town atm.