In post 1547, Andante wrote: In post 1544, catboi wrote:I can explain the math to you if you really want (I assume most people in this game aren't big enough nerds to care) but it is significantly more likely that there are 0-1 scum in the gentlemen from my POV than 4 scum from your POV. 0 is unlikely but still possible.
Yes I want the math. I love math. Like, why isn't it more likely just 1-2 on both? like, I can see why the gentleman statistically would not be more than 2 (still could be) but, I'd say 1-2 there, and then that makes it 2-3 for ladies. Or it's just 2 and 2 and they're gonna pair with each other and call it a day
Okay. I like probability and statistics, will try to make this simple but I don't want to spend too much time explaining how this is calculated. The way you go about calculating possible scumteams is using
combinations, since the order of players in a scumteam doesn't matter for determining the number of possibilities - a team of me/you/fire/mala would be the same as a team of fire/mala/me/you, for instance.
So, looking at it this way, from the POV of someone who is not Taly, there are 15 slots they do not know the alignment of (they know that they're town and taly is town). This means the total number of possible scumteams calculates as follows:
C(15,4) = 15!/(4!*(15-4)!) = 1365
Now, we can find the probability of any particular grouping of scum among the Gents/Ladies by calculating the number of possible teams that have that composition.
From your point of view in the game, there are 7 unconfirmed Gentlemen and 8 unconfirmed ladies. The number of possible 4-scum teams among those 7 gents is:
C(7,4) = 7!/(4!*(7-4)!) = 35
Now, 35/1365 = 0.0256, which is a pretty small probability.
From my point of view, though, there are only 6 unconfirmed Gentlemen and 9 unconfirmed Ladies, because I know I'm town and I don't know if any of you are town. The number of scumteams where there are 4 ladies from my POV is:
C(9,4) = 9!/(4!*(9-4)!) = 126
126/1365 = 0.0923
This is still unlikely, but it's over 3 times as likely as there being 4 scum in the Gents from your POV, and a 9% chance isn't really insignificant.
The possibility of only 1 scum among the gents is where the number of possibilities gets to be very big, because you end up having to multiply the number of possible scumteams among the ladies with each possible gentleman they can be teamed with.
6*C(9,3) = 6* 9!/(3!*(9-3)!) = 6*84 = 504
That give a probability of
504/1365 = 0.3692
Which is pretty big! If you add together the probabilities for 0 and 1 scum in the gents from my POV, it's 0.4615, which as I said earlier, is nearly a coinflip.
And based on how I'm reading the game, it
feels
right. None of the gents have been that scummy to me. And in a distribution where scum is concentrated more significantly among the ladies, it makes sense for the scum to try to directly push the town among the ladies to reduce the amount of possible town/town pairs. I get a sense of that happening.
In post 1736, Titus wrote:
Presuming this means catboi. Catboi gives enough detail to where you know where he stands and what he thinks, especially at the start. I'm a bit worried he'll get drowned out because of the pace (my bad). While he's not the best scumhunter (but still decent), he's a great person to bounce ideas off of. If he's town and you're town, I think it would be a happy pairing.
I can keep up with the pace perfectly fine, I just choose not to contribute to the noise level at this point in time, especially when I find it largely uninteresting.
1/10
I demand 
