Open 840 - Guardians of the Fortress [Game Over]

[Lukewarm]

Lukewarm, do you think you being in the Keep increases the town's probability of winning? Or is it simply something you want?

If the former why, if the latter then why should we take you at your word here?

Bit of both.

Last game, I was in the Wall. I both did not enjoy it and I lost it, so that was a double no for me.

So that just leaves the Keep or the Gate.

The gate would not have been the end of the world, but the keep still has more going for it.

If I get widely town read, then I win. If the scum in the keep gets scum read, I win. If I get scum read, and given vote power in the Keep, then I functionally become the IC vote at the Gate, but then there is the Real IC that I know that I can trust to talk my decision out with.

There are multiple win states for me, and even in the worst position, it doesn't look bad, and I am happy to work with the IC on who to chose at that point. I like having other people out there that I feel like I can trust to work on things together, and if I were at the Gate then that is not guaranteed the way it is at the Keep

[Tanner]

You're right, by the way - I dug back into my wiki and looks like we were both in One Flew Over a Cuckoo's Nest (you as scum, me as town) which got abandoned. Back in 2009!

so last game, baltar didn't remember me being scum in a game that happened some... 9? months ago, but remembered playing with imaginality in a game back in

2009

? damn.

[VP Baltar]

You're right, by the way - I dug back into my wiki and looks like we were both in One Flew Over a Cuckoo's Nest (you as scum, me as town) which got abandoned. Back in 2009!

Abandoned! Boo.

[VP Baltar]

You're right, by the way - I dug back into my wiki and looks like we were both in One Flew Over a Cuckoo's Nest (you as scum, me as town) which got abandoned. Back in 2009!

so last game, baltar didn't remember me being scum in a game that happened some... 9? months ago, but remembered playing with imaginality in a game back in

2009

? damn.

Lol well I knew we had played together, just not specifics of the game. It helps imaginality is like me and rarely changes his avi

[implosion]

Lukewarm, do you think you being in the Keep increases the town's probability of winning? Or is it simply something you want?

If the former why, if the latter then why should we take you at your word here?

Bit of both.

-snip-

I guess what I mean is, what makes you special here? Sure you lost at the wall last game. The wall is the hardest thing for town to win, so that's not surprising. It'll be hard for

whoever

winds up there, and two townies will wind up there (unless we win d1).

If

anyone

gets widely townread at Keep, they win. If the sum in the keep gets scum read,

anyone

will win keep. It seems like your priority is "i win my minigame" rather than "town wins at least 2/3 minigames". Like, no duh you're most likely to win your game if you join the easiest game.

[VP Baltar]

I've generally been of the mind that

first movers are +town

because being a first mover is very conspicuous.

I think it's hard to clearly read in isolation.

In the game I played scum moved 2nd

and 6th (and then the last 3 people including the third scum were locked to the last location).

[implosion]

And to be clear I don't know if this is scum-motivated. Just trying to discern.

[Tanner]

You're right, by the way - I dug back into my wiki and looks like we were both in One Flew Over a Cuckoo's Nest (you as scum, me as town) which got abandoned. Back in 2009!

so last game, baltar didn't remember me being scum in a game that happened some... 9? months ago, but remembered playing with imaginality in a game back in

2009

? damn.

and that game had ~15 pages over more than two weeks. holy shit, old ms sounds like a different time.

[implosion]

I've generally been of the mind that

first movers are +town

because being a first mover is very conspicuous.

I think it's hard to clearly read in isolation.

In the game I played scum moved 2nd

and 6th (and then the last 3 people including the third scum were locked to the last location).

I guess I did say "first movers" but I sort of meant literally first movers, with the plural meaning across multiple runs of the setup. But really the main point was that there are counterbalancing forces, and that a broad statement tying alignment to when-someone-moves is not robust without context of why they moved, with whom, their personality (i.e. whether they're the kind of person who'd tend to move early as town), etc.

[Tanner]

only after hitting submit i realized just how utterly stupid that sentence sounds because *of course* it was a different time. should go to bed soon.

[implosion]

(and also... keep in mind that in that game scum moved 2nd yes, but the rest of the first 5 people to move were town)

[implosion]

ooh. just noticed that game was open 820 and this one is open 840. satisfying.

[Lukewarm]

Lukewarm, do you think you being in the Keep increases the town's probability of winning? Or is it simply something you want?

If the former why, if the latter then why should we take you at your word here?

Bit of both.

-snip-

I guess what I mean is, what makes you special here? Sure you lost at the wall last game. The wall is the hardest thing for town to win, so that's not surprising. It'll be hard for

whoever

winds up there, and two townies will wind up there (unless we win d1).

If

anyone

gets widely townread at Keep, they win. If the sum in the keep gets scum read,

anyone

will win keep. It seems like your priority is "i win my minigame" rather than "town wins at least 2/3 minigames". Like, no duh you're most likely to win your game if you join the easiest game.

Maybe I am not special here, but winning one game seems likely to help us get to two wins.

I am also not super confident in my Elo ability in general. I don't think I have ever voted correctly in Elo in any agme yet? I know I have voted in correctly in Elo 3 times.so I might be being selfish putting myself in the easier game, but putting myself in the easier game feels like the right play to make

[VP Baltar]

(and also... keep in mind that in that game scum moved 2nd yes, but the rest of the first 5 people to move were town)

My point is there is more likely to be a scum among the first movers due to the desire to prevent a lockout.

I agree first first mover is probably slightly +town.

Of course, now that we have talked about it, it feels like it all means nothing, so...

[VP Baltar]

and that game had ~15 pages over more than two weeks. holy shit, old ms sounds like a different time.

The act of only playing from a computer definitely made the game much more contemplative and very slow. Not sure I would go back to that, but I remember when people would lose their minds about spamming if a game reached page 50.

[Lukewarm]

I voted correctly in melo one game, because we had two players cross vote, clearing me and and another person, and working together we solved it. Which is the worst case scenario for the Keep (working with the IC to solve it).

You might be right tho - I just don't want to be the reason we lose, so I put myself in the game where I was least likely to be the reason for that

[Tanner]

i'm starting to wonder why did i even /in into this game, considering i utterly hate lylos as town and have never won one when i was the deciding vote. i think i might really be a masochist.

[VP Baltar]

i'm starting to wonder why did i even /in into this game, considering i utterly hate lylos as town and have never won one when i was the deciding vote. i think i might really be a masochist.

Going to the gate means you don't have to do that

[Tanner]

any scumteam with more than two collective braincells will conftown me if i end up at the gate.

[Aristeia]

you are adoorbs Tanner

[Tanner]

(⁄ ⁄•⁄ω⁄•⁄ ⁄)

[Aristeia]

*swoons*

[VP Baltar]

you are adoorbs Tanner

Who is pocketing who here?

[Aristeia]

shhh

[DArby]

here's the old game.
here's the old scum PT.

Here is the one I was in
and the scum chat for it

This game was a scum sweep. The won the keep and then won the wall.

Scum locked in pretty early this game, all three scum were in the first 4 vote ins

which is why i think your early lock in was quite scummy

Agreed.