Open 840 - Guardians of the Fortress [Game Over]

[Lukewarm]

Well me and Ari both openly said we are bad at Elo, so we don't go to the gate lol

I know the irony here

[VP Baltar]

So, 3 scummiest goes to the Gate, one becomes an IC, and then that player is left to sort the two scummiest players in the game. So, would be a hard choice.

But if you essentially treat all the group input as the decision, seems like it is actually easy to solve, plus you potentially get the scum to clear a scummy player for you. At least those are the benefits I see. I think in a 50/50, I believe town can figure it out

[implosion]

Was reading the game implosion linked, and it looked quite easy for scummy to get 1-1-1, so idk how effective strategizing will end up being. Like I said, feels like the best plan is to optimize minigame outcomes.

This is partially true but partially misleading; note the reaction from skitter and Penguin (both town) when I hammered. It was probably not going to be 1-1-1 without me making that play that made me stick my neck out somewhat.

I have no preference for where I end up and no strong feelings about how good I am in Elo.

[implosion]

I also do want to make one Keep strategy note in response to Lukewarm saying he'll just vote for someone else: if you are town in keep, be *VERY* slow to vote for someone other than yourself. Don't just accept that you're going to be the one to hammer between the other two. If a townie willingly gives up their ability to be the one selected, then suddenly the keep is 50/50 instead of being in our favor.

We should run the keep in such a way that we use majority "vote" (probably just for the 3 people within the keep) for who they think is scummiest. Then force that person to vote for one of the other two and they selfhammer. If they refuse to vote, assume they're scum and the other two players just arbitrarily vote for one of them.

[implosion]

consensus assignments are either done or they are not done

there is no middle ground

I flatly disagree. There's an obvious middleground of consensus assigning all players who have not yet been assigned.

[VP Baltar]

Implosion, you think there is an optimal order to the games?

[Toogeloo]

Y'all are trying too hard maybe with this, especially in light of two people already being locked in.

[Lukewarm]

Y'all are trying too hard maybe with this, especially in light of two people already being locked in.

I mean, we have to figure out who goes where Somehow. If not like this, what do you suggest?

[Toogeloo]

I don't think you really have any room to say that when you locked in before discussion. Or were you meaning, the royal we?

[Lukewarm]

1 - yes, I meant the royal we

2 - I still plan on weighing in on where people go, despite my early vot int

[implosion]

Implosion, you think there is an optimal order to the games?

I don't think there is. I'm theoretically open to arguments about it. There's an argument for doing gate early because the IC doesn't get locked out of discussion, but also an argument for doing it later because it reveals the fewest people's alignments.

In practice the optimal order I think is to pick whichever location would give the most surprising information if scum were to win it (or optimize for something like that) and resolve it first.

[VP Baltar]

would give the most surprising information if scum were to win it

What do you mean?

[implosion]

Something like the area we're most certain about our reads collectively, because if we're horribly wrong about things we were very confident in, it's good to know that sooner than later, and if we're right then we'll be winning the area anyway.

[Aristeia]

I probably shouldn't be reading so much into implosion's mech analysis but it's so confident and hawt :<

[Aristeia]

btw who are we liking for the 3 scummiest thrown into Gate?

I think rn my too early list is:

1. numberQ
4. imaginality
6. Toogeloo

[Toogeloo]

Looks like a who's who of lowest post counts.

[Toogeloo]

Those experienced with this setup, how often do scum usually try to lead the town and get people grouped together?

[Toogeloo]

Im actually coming to the opinion that the best course of action is to keep my reads close to my chest until I see who I'm paired with.

[imaginality]

Looks like a who's who of lowest post counts.

Interesting also that two of her scumreads are you and I who have both expressed mild suspicion of her:

i like implos strategy

also if we r throwing the three scummiest into the same spot, it doesnt actually matter which spot we throw them into.

Do you think Luke is town?

nope

So then, your comment makes no sense.

Hi all.

I'm slightly suspicious of Aristeia because second vote in a location is convenient for scum to ensure they're split (if the first vote is town).

hm. i would say aristeia is still >rand town. scum!aristeia is basically forced to either flat-out lose one minigame, or use the night swap on me. and the second might not always be possible. it feels like limiting options for scum for... zero gain.

She could use the night swap on her to appear towny in whatever minigame she's swapped into. That seems like a reasonable play as scum? And also could just be hoping Tanner doesn't actually end up in Keep anyhow.

[Aristeia]

What's your list so far?

[imaginality]

I considered whether sharing reads is good in this game. I think it is. Because I think smart town play draws on wider views in the minigames so I think scum are limited in how much they can use their knowledge of people's reads. And I think the discussion it generates can help progress others' reads also.

So (with the caveat it's still early and some of the below sounds more black and white than it is), here's how I see things so far:

Lean town:

implosion
- good mech thoughts shared proactively
- asking useful questions eg of Luke and Ari
- my sense is he's more focused on the game than on how others are reading him

Toogeloo
- in my head I thought they were lurking but they've posted more than I remembered, probably a town point as my scumdar pings louder than my towndar
- some good questioning of Ari
- I'm doubtful of his idea that it's better not to give reads yet but doesn't seem like a stance scum would take

Lukewarm
- the vote explanation feels genuine to me
- my sense is he wouldn't want to be the centre of attention as scum in the way casting the first vote made him

VP Baltar
- more focused on strategy chat than forming reads but I do agree with the townread he's formed on implosion
- #151 is the sort of filler post I'd make as scum, and strategy posts seem to wander here and there
- maybe trying a bit deliberately to be likeable?
- that said I suspect I'm being paranoid and by later game my town read would firm up on him

A specific recent point I disagree on:

So, 3 scummiest goes to the Gate, one becomes an IC, and then that player is left to sort the two scummiest players in the game. So, would be a hard choice.

But if you essentially treat all the group input as the decision, seems like it is actually easy to solve, plus you potentially get the scum to clear a scummy player for you. At least those are the benefits I see. I think in a 50/50, I believe town can figure it out

I'd rather force scum to clear someone who is good at scum hunting as IC, than have scum clear a lurker/bad player. So I'd rather put the strong and towny players in Gate, resolve that early, and then get the players in Wall to listen to those in Gate.
I recognise though that strong and town aren't synonymous, so it's not as simple as this, but I do think if we put someone bad in Gate scum will just IC them and I'd rather scum have to make a harder choice.

Tanner
- #59 seems too superficial
-but #74 and questioning VP's townread on him in #103 seems town

Lean scum:

numberQ
- only two posts, so not much to go on
-but I find this switch jarring, from #42"I was really hoping we'd talk about assignments more" to #64 "I'm fine not picking where I go. I have no real preference for which location I'm in."

Aristeia
- 2nd vote on a location
- her readlist feels omgussy
- her Tanner buddying could fit as both S/T and S/S
- would town Ari promise to vote unknown-alignment Tanner?

DArby
-rejected a couple of suggestions but no apparent intent to figure out if they came from wrong town or scum
-don't feel like he's trying to scum hunt
-don't feel like he's trying to help town progress

[imaginality]

Oh also on implosion #178 doesn't feel to me like one scum would make.

[Tanner]

@Everyone, how good would you rate yourself in Elo?

assuming this is asking as town - solely depends on whether i'm the person 1v1'ing or if i'm the person deciding the vote. if i'm the one 1v1'ing, i've never lost. if i'm deciding, i've never decided correctly. which is why i wanted to go to keep and why i want to avoid the gate at all costs. and why i'll probably end up there. maybe saying it out loud is the mistake here, but /shrug.

Actually maybe 3 scummiest at the gate?

i would support this.

also, i'm not sure if i see the point in discussing which minigames we want to resolve first right now, since that feels pretty dependent on how our reads shake out and the night swap.

- her Tanner buddying could fit as both S/T and S/S

i was going to complain about you calling my 59 superficial, but then i realized just why it might seem like it to someone not familiar with ari, and why i'm maybe being a bit hasty in that read, so, fine. my questions then are (1) why are you townleaning baltar? the points you wrote about him seem overwhelmingly negative, (2) what's the logic behind ari/tanner being s/s?

[Tanner]

like, i was reading along, and i started thinking how baltar's posting mostly mech discussion and not many reads, which struck me as somewhat +scum (citation needed maybe, i'll check at some point). then i came to your post, and i thought how it's nice we're mindmelding, and then boom, you're actually townreading him because ???.

[VP Baltar]

I'd rather force scum to clear someone who is good at scum hunting as IC, than have scum clear a lurker/bad player. So I'd rather put the strong and towny players in Gate, resolve that early, and then get the players in Wall to listen to those in Gate.

I suppose that's a good point that is the inverse of what I suggested. I think the outcome is similar in that you're getting a read on someone we are more likely to be reading incorrectly.