Open 840 - Guardians of the Fortress Saboteur PT

[imaginality]

Okay so for now (we can change it before deadline if we decide to):

swap DArby and imposion
Reveal Tanner as Town

[Prism]

Acknowledged.

In the event submitted actions ever conflict, I will work backwards from the most recently submitted valid action to create a valid combination.

[Toogeloo]

Fwiw, I think those moves lose us the game, though maybe I'm just paranoid. If implosion is as town read as you guys suggest, we turn each game into a 50/50, but by making Tanner the IC, who has already shown some suspicion on both imaginality and myself (and maybe Luke as well), that might seal the game.

Baltar probably makes a better IC, I think.

[Lukewarm]

What moves do you suggest?

[Lukewarm]

I think that pav is a decent choice for me to convince I am town btw. I have played several games with him

[Lukewarm]

And I actually think he will be suspicious of Ari's style if he has not encountered her before

[imaginality]

I'm okay with making Baltar IC, Toogeloo.
I felt the wifom factor would be enough to make Tanner and others wonder about his existing reads. But happy to go with VP if you prefer.

That's good to hear about Pavowski, Luke. You two aren't buddies to the extent it would look like you're deliberately moving him into your minigame?

[Lukewarm]

No, we have just been friendly.

And I think he is inclined to town read me on effort. So I think I am gonna do a reread over the night phase, and have notes on everyone, and I think that plus offering to vote for Ari could do it

[Toogeloo]

I continue to think you two make the actions the best you see fit. I just get a bad gut vibe from the current night actions. You know, those Han Solo moments ("I got a bad feeling about this.")

[imaginality]

I have thought about the alternatives again but they still seem flawed. The biggest risk with this one is town give a lot of weight to Tanner's current reads when he's ICed but a lot of that in my view gets cancelled by the "why did scum IC Tanner?" wifom.

I think with everyone town reading implosion the swap brings limited new info to town whether Wall flips before Keep or vice versa. Quite a few of the other swap options have more risk if the minigames don't resolve in the ideal order.

I think implosion being widely townread is the big limiting factor in what options are workable. Possibly we could try to change that (eg argue the townreads are more based on mech posts than scum hunting), and I think that could still be a useful angle with implo swapped to the Gate as per our current plan, at least if Keep flips first showing Pavowski to be town.

Of other options, a numberQ/Pav swap with VP is okay, if we think we can discredit implo enough. If Keep flips last then the fact the swap was T/T might help raise 'why didn't scum swap implo' questions. Before that, it probably strengthens Tanner's scumread on me since he thinks VP and/or I are scum. So making numberQ/Pavowski IC could let us paint a VP-Tanner scum team as having planned the swap in advance.

[Lukewarm]

Hello. This is probably too late, but my re-read got delayed because of the holiday.

in my iso notes, I found a good angle to press Tanner I think, so I am posting it tomorrow regardless as part of my "night time notes" - This can either be used as a "why would luke case tanner so hard if he knew tanner was getting the ic" to help me, or it couldbe used to miselim tanner.

If either of you are on, I am here to talk about it. But I think it works to help us win a game either way!

[imaginality]

I'm here if you still are?

[imaginality]

Both of those plans fail if you flip before Tanner does though.
We could take a chance on that if we IC VP Baltar, or swap Tanner and NumberQ/Pavowski, but if we want to guarantee we can use either plan we'd have to swap Tanner with implosion or Ari. Would bringing Tanner into Keep affect your case?

[imaginality]

Oh sorry, the 'why case him if you knew he'd be IC' one would still work.

[imaginality]

Does your case involve any interactions/partner spec?

[imaginality]

I know Toogeloo has doubts about our current choice. I'd rather have us all on board. So I'm wondering about VP Baltar - Pavowksi swap and make Pav IC.

Logic being:
-implo is townread so if he's town scum would want to swap him out of Keep if they could
Therefore either he's scum or the swap is a forced T/S swap

If read as T/T it could also look like Tanner shifting VP away due to wanting the 1 on 1 with me and might get suspicion on implo.
If read as T/S it might get Pav and/or VP mislimmed.


Having Pav as IC hopefully would mean his favourable view of Luke or suspicion of Ari might influence town, if Luke's right about that.

[Lukewarm]

Tanner

Maybe I am just getting conf biased here, but looking back over his iso, I am leaning even more towards him being scum. His plan for the keep does nothing for me reading it back, because that plan wins it for town tanner and for scum tanner, so he could very much want that plan either way.

21 feels

off

to me. like the "I want you to be town, bit it's obviously too early to tell" feels... idk if performative is the right word, maybe forced?

I also don't like his interaction with Ari 72 and 74 72 feels like a lot of words to say nothing, but then to drop his town lean on Ari for some reason.

I am trying to see the town motivation behind

why would your read of me even matter if I am going to be voting for you?

those are words that aren't yet actions, and i'm still not sure if i will be calling that bluff.

His response here does not make sense to me. Her "bluff" is that she is going to vote for him, which if she is telling the truth wins the game for him regardless of his alignment. If she is "bluffing" what is the concern for town Tanner? IF she is scum bluffing, then she you give her voting power, and town tanner wins. IF she is town bluffing, then she is giving voting power, and tanner is in a 1v1 with the other person in the keep - which is where he later says that he wants to be, the person in the 1v1, not the person making the vote

depends on whether i'm the person 1v1'ing or if i'm the person deciding the vote. if i'm the one 1v1'ing, i've never lost. if i'm deciding, i've never decided correctly. which is why i wanted to go to keep and why i want to avoid the gate at all costs. and why i'll probably end up there.

So this worry about "calling her bluff" feels more like scum tanner, worried that if he acceprts her offer, she will scum read him for it and then vote the other person.

-Also, all the things I brought up day one about his game choice
-Also, also, his attempt to force the implo, baltar, imafin game felt contrived
-Also, also, also - him jumping to the gate, after I said that I did not think that town tanner would want the all bothers me.[/area


Here is what I typed up for tanner in my iso notes

[Lukewarm]

Tanner

Maybe I am just getting conf biased here, but looking back over his iso, I am leaning even more towards him being scum. His plan for the keep does nothing for me reading it back, because that plan wins it for town tanner and for scum tanner, so he could very much want that plan either way.

21 feels

off

to me. like the "I want you to be town, bit it's obviously too early to tell" feels... idk if performative is the right word, maybe forced?

I also don't like his interaction with Ari 72 and 74 72 feels like a lot of words to say nothing, but then to drop his town lean on Ari for some reason.

I am trying to see the town motivation behind

why would your read of me even matter if I am going to be voting for you?

those are words that aren't yet actions, and i'm still not sure if i will be calling that bluff.

His response here does not make sense to me. Her "bluff" is that she is going to vote for him, which if she is telling the truth wins the game for him regardless of his alignment. If she is "bluffing" what is the concern for town Tanner? IF she is scum bluffing, then she you give her voting power, and town tanner wins. IF she is town bluffing, then she is giving voting power, and tanner is in a 1v1 with the other person in the keep - which is where he later says that he wants to be, the person in the 1v1, not the person making the vote

depends on whether i'm the person 1v1'ing or if i'm the person deciding the vote. if i'm the one 1v1'ing, i've never lost. if i'm deciding, i've never decided correctly. which is why i wanted to go to keep and why i want to avoid the gate at all costs. and why i'll probably end up there.

So this worry about "calling her bluff" feels more like scum tanner, worried that if he acceprts her offer, she will scum read him for it and then vote the other person.

-Also, all the things I brought up day one about his game choice
-Also, also, his attempt to force the implo, baltar, imafin game felt contrived
-Also, also, also - him jumping to the gate, after I said that I did not think that town tanner would want the all bothers me.

Here is what I typed up for tanner in my iso notes

[Lukewarm]

Also, sorry. I checked back like 30 mins after my first post, and assumed you were both not here. Just barely missed you

[Lukewarm]

I think that my iso notes are gonna be the same regardless of the swaps / ic choice.

But once I typed up the "bluff" part of the iso notes, I realized that it was actually decent.

[Lukewarm]

I think that me having a case on Tanner, and then him promptly being IC'd is decent towards me winning the keep.

I lean hard into Ari being town in my iso notes, and I think that Pav is always the voter. I think it can sway Pav.

But I might could do that with who ever the IC is, as long as Pav is swapped for Ari.

I am much less confident in my game if I dont get pav, but we dont have to win all three, so if you think you can both win another way, then doing something different is not the worst thing

[imaginality]

But I might could do that with who ever the IC is, as long as Pav is swapped for Ari.

Did you mean swapped for implo?

[Lukewarm]

Yes, I did.

[Lukewarm]

My brain said Keep: me, Pav, Ari -- and plugged in the names even though it did not make sense lol

[imaginality]

Tanner pushing for me-VP-implo is good for us if we do the VP-Pav swap and paint it as VP and Tanner both scum. Though.. Would scum make Pav IC, given the suspicions on DArby, rather than make me IC? So, maybe swap numberQ and VP and make numberQ IC?

I think Tanner saying he'd like the 1v1 in Keep might also help the case against him if he's 1v1 against me in Gate.

Your point about Pav being the likely voter if he goes to Keep is important though. I don't think there's another player that would be as likely to be the case.

Let me go reread why I thought Tanner should be IC.