Open 840 - Guardians of the Fortress [Game Over]

[Aristeia]

I think over focus on one minigame to the detriment of others might be minus town EV

I think every player should be trying to play and win their own minigame concurrently while also giving opinions on the other games.

I think we should have fairly strict deadlines for resolving each minigame to allow for time to use the flips/stances to solve other minigames.

I am unsure which minigame should be resolved first. I think maybe let Tanner decide on this? Whenever he feels the most certain about a certain game I believe.

I'll have more time this evening to put more thoughts down on paper.

[Lukewarm]

Yeah, true. It mainly just worked out that all three of us were here right now.

At some point today, I plan on looking back at baltar and imaginality. I think they are the two people that the tanner reveal could help with the most

[Tanner]

right, i can't be just shitposting here, fine.

i think the first step here is having everyone give their introduction thoughts. at least on their own game, preferably on the others too. then it will be easier to decide the order, when we figure out what flips give info for where. i'll poke around that, but i think i first wanna see what you all come up with. i'll reread the game in the meantime, it's been a while.

i am kind of annoyed that there was talk about meta and "how good at yelo are you", because if i had been ic'ed without that conversation, it would give more info than now. but it is what it is. maybe it's my fault for actually answering.

[Pavowski]

Yeah getting swapped threw me. Ok.

Did you put much thought into your original game. You, numberq, toog at the wall

I was leaning Q there for scum.

Luke does seem very earnest and honest though

Luke always sounds that way. It's his curse.

[Pavowski]

I'll honor this if it's how the group wants to play it

Do you think there is something wrong with playing it this way? If yes, what?

I have no problem with playing it this way, although I was all prepared to come in and make a bold read and rack a town win in nothing flat.

Of course in 50% of scenarios I screw town over with that move so, yeah, caution is maybe the smarter play, if not as much fun

[Tanner]

i'm just gonna ramble about objective mechanics a bit, so that i can get corrected if i'm wrong.

so there is exactly one scum in vp baltar/imaginality. rip my tinfoil.

original keep was luke/ari/implo, original wall was toog/number/pav. implo and pav were swapped.

if there was 1 scum in each - implo and pav are the same alignment.
if there was 2 scum in either - then they're opposite alignments.

i don't think this really gets us anywhere... there may be merit in resolving keep and wall first in order to see whether there was 1 scum in each location at the end of d1, or if scum was forced to correct the groups. i say "may" because i still need to reread d1 and see if that would actually give any information about vp and imaginality. if it wouldn't, then there's no point.

[Tanner]

Luke always sounds that way. It's his curse.

can i get a rundown of your experience with luke, please?

[Lukewarm]

Just thinking abut the game, and I realized that Baltar and imaginality's are in a better position then anyone else to make reads across the games. Who ever is the town in that pair basically have a scum flip to work with. They can actually make associative reads and partner hunt against the other person.

[Tanner]

Just thinking abut the game, and I realized that Baltar and imaginality's are in a better position then anyone else to make reads across the games. Who ever is the town in that pair basically have a scum flip to work with. They can actually make associative reads and partner hunt against the other person.

oh, good shit. yeah, the two of them should be doing that.

[Lukewarm]

Luke always sounds that way. It's his curse.

can i get a rundown of your experience with luke, please?

Dug through my past games

Newbie 2065 - Pav repped in EoD 1, I was already uber town read. Both town, we won Day 2

Newbie 2067 - My first scum game on site. Pav thought I was town, but I died day 2 anyways because of a guilty on me

Newbie 2072 - I was town, Pav was scum. I thought he was town. Like, my top town read Town won anyways because the tracker had better reads then me lol

Open 822 - Popcorn mafia, I was scum. Pav scum read me by the end. Town won (also, side note popcorn is not a fun set up for scum :/)

Open 829 - Nightless exploder game. Both town, but he died before I ever made it to the thread lol

Shakespere uPick - We were both town, but I scum read him. town loss in the end

[Pavowski]

Luke always sounds that way. It's his curse.

can i get a rundown of your experience with luke, please?

Lord.

How much time do you have?

This is like, game #6 or something for us (Luke can tell you because he's the type to track things like that and I'm, uh, not). Of those we've been on opposing teams more often than not, which is statistically interesting if nothing else.

Basically Luke sounds the same as either alignment. Analytical and thorough and he terrifies me as scum because of this.

And also because of this, I never, ever trust him fully until he flips.

If you want more detail I can try but them's my Luke thoughts in a nutshell.

[Lukewarm]

LUKE

IS THIS THE GAME

In answering Tanner's question, I realized that we have already had the game in shakespere lol

[Lukewarm]

This is like, game #6 or something for us (Luke can tell you because he's the type to track things like that and I'm, uh, not)

This is #7 lol

[Aristeia]

Thinking about the swap and which scenarios make sense:

Implosion - Town, Pavowski Town.

Motive: Lukewarm thinks he can't out-town Implosion and decides to switch him out to lessen the competition.

Lukewarm also believes he can pocket Pavo and get him to vote for Lukewarm because of their history together.


Counterpoint:

Lukewarm feels so earnest in his solving post flip that he feels very much like town Lukewarm.

Is Lukewarm trying to convince one of us to vote for him by making it look like he is definitely wanting to vote for me? I am somewhat pocketed here despite my initial reservations on Luke. He just feels so warm and honest.

I don't think this world is impossible but I do feel it's somewhat unlikely.

Implosion Scum, Pavowski Town

Motive: Distort the game state and make Implosion look even townier than he already looks.

Counterpoint: It feels like overkill and I'm not certain Implo/Lukewarm come up with this play. I guess if the scum team is that well set up they don't actually

need

their swap for anything else and they can go for it? Does Lukewarm winning the keep do anything to help Implo at the Wall? Mmm I guess I can see it but we are kind of screwed if this is the actual play they make. I don't see how we ever get to implo scum on the wall.

I feel more worried about this than I should be.

Implosion Town, Pavowski Scum

Motive: Keep is lost for scum team already with three fairly vocal town players locked in and they decide to throw the recently replaced Pavo in there because his prospects are quite bad already. He's here for a good time not a long time.

Counterpoint: Why flip out Implosion out of the three of us if keep is TTT? Implosion is arguably the most townread out of the keep players pre-d2 so does it really make sense to flip him out of the keep? Is the hope that Ari/Luke refuse to trust each other? But Luke has already said multiple times he trusts me so what's even the objective here? Why would scum not just walk into keep regularly if Luke/Ari is T/T instead of wasting the switch?

I have issues with this worldview, I'm not sure if I'm being overly paranoid but I struggle to see which scum team decides this is a good move.

Implosion Scum, Pavowski Scum

Motive: I honestly can't come up with a motive for this one, why would a scum team put a stronger scum player in keep and then flip him out for a weaker scum player? Are they worried Pavo will be limbait on the wall so they decided to flip implo in there to salvage Wall while Pavo gets sacrificed on the Keep ? What's even the point of this move?


I guess the simplest explanation for what went on is that Luke/Me is T/T and nobody on scum team wanted to come to keep with us with 1 scum player inactive.

Pavo then switched in because he was a replacement and decided to take the fall for his team at that point.

However this is a bit arrogant and I am wary of making the same mistake the town made on the first run of this game.

Luke is hitting all the right tonal/thought markers to make me townread and trust him and I'm somewhat worried I'm overly hasty in my judgement.

[Pavowski]

This is like, game #6 or something for us (Luke can tell you because he's the type to track things like that and I'm, uh, not)

This is #7 lol

See what I mean?

[Pavowski]

LUKE

IS THIS THE GAME

In answering Tanner's question, I realized that we have already had the game in shakespere lol

Okay, the NEW game will be which of us gets to NK the other first.

Won't be this game, but still!

[Aristeia]

gosh it would really be quite cheeky of Luke to steal Tanner's spot in the keep and then pocket me and get me to vote for him.

mmmmhmm

[Aristeia]

I don't think I'm going to vote unless Tanner tells me it's ok to trust that person

[Aristeia]

Tanner you will keep me safe right?

I am quite bad at making decisions about strange men

[Pavowski]

He's here for a good time not a long time.

I'm gonna read the rest of the post in more depth but this made me laugh

[Toogeloo]

I think The Wall should resolve right away. I think both imaginality and Baltar have given at least a few stances that serve as associatives to do the Gate and the Keep.

Tanner becoming an IC is good, and better than various scenarios I was thinking of happening.

I kept my reads close because I was certain Luke was buddying me early on with their encouragements to join the Keep and town reading me. Almost half the players in the game are scum and I didn't want to give them anything to work with.

Going into today, I didn't have much in the way of scum reads, I was playing as I usually do and trying to figure out town reads first. Tanner and imaginality we're early town reads, I think. I can't remember the game state since last week. I think I also liked Baltar, but no one got swapped there, so I'm wrong somewhere. I thought the Wall was going to have a swap.

My assumption for The Gate was that we were the unsorted and most likely to have 2 scum. I didn't like numberQ yesterday they kept making pushes as me scum early, and then again at day start today. I don't recall implosion's play yesterday, but I do recall them being mostly town read.

I'm currently leaning scum were already 1/1/1 in the games, and Darby was probably moved to The Keep for chaos purposes.

I think The Wall should resolve first, and we go from there.

[Toogeloo]

Currently nursing a 100.7 low grade fever. I've felt like crap all week. It ain't Covid though, so small blessings.

[Tanner]

you mixed up the wall and the gate or am i misreading?

[Toogeloo]

I don't know. I'm not really following the names of the games.

[VP Baltar]

Tanner, I am only skimming. Are we certain to have a scum at the gate? If yes, resolving that first makes sense. We can yeet imaginality into the sun.