Open 840 - Guardians of the Fortress [Game Over]

[VP Baltar]

DArby
-rejected a couple of suggestions but no apparent intent to figure out if they came from wrong town or scum
-don't feel like he's trying to scum hunt
-don't feel like he's trying to help town progress

This scum read on Darby may be accurate, but feels made up at that point in the game perhaps. Darby wasn't hardly even in the game, but imaginality had him at the bottom of the list for not helping town progress and not scum hunting.

Seems overly aggressive read when few people were truly scumhunting D1

[VP Baltar]

Those are hip reads, but probably where I'll put my first focus tomorrow to see if my instincts read true with some deeper diving.

[VP Baltar]

Reminder to myself to check if imaginality gave his reads list before or after I suggested the sort

[implosion]

I’m getting on a plane shortly. Will maybe or maybe not have energy to comment tonight. The one thing I want to say before looking more is that lukewarm is probably the best vote at keep now, I was thinking he’s quite town d1.

[implosion]

Read up but not closely.
Vp is, alas, +town for that dumbtell.

I have a weak initial inclination toward toog scum at wall.

Less confident on keep; I need to think about the implications of the swap if darby was scum, given some of aris logic.

No strong feelings on resolution order atm

Will have much more later.

[numberQ]

[snip]

I didn't like numberQ yesterday they kept making pushes as me scum early, and then again at day start today.

[snip]

Pushing a scumread isn't scummy, what?

I'm currently leaning scum were already 1/1/1 in the games, and Darby was probably moved to The Keep for chaos purposes.

Very interested in hearing this reasoning, because I'm currently going back and forth on it myself.

---

By play, I think Toog is much scummier than implo. But I'm struggling to reconcile the swap if that's true.

1) If Toog is scum and and Pav is not, I don't think it makes any sense to split them up and then pull implo, who was a fairly widely TR slot, into a location that previously had 3 very much less widely read slots.

2) If Toog is scum and Pav is as well, this makes even less sense. You get the same problem as point 1), but then you also send Pav's slot into what is probably the hardest game for scum to win. DArby was very strongly SRed before his replacement, and Pav had 0 interaction with the game before the swap decision had to be made. I don't see scum putting a slot like that at the Keep.

3) If they're BOTH town, this swap actually

does

kind of make sense, for the exact same reasons I outlined above. It means implo is scum with a good town mask, so of course they'd want him here so Toog and I fight. It means Pav is town who's unlikely to be town-voted for extenuating reasons, so of course they'd want him at the Keep so the scum there has one less slot to worry about looking townier than.

This scares me because swap analysis points me to a totally different conclusion than pure play analysis did. I sure would like others to weigh in on this theory because I don't like it lol, but I can't roll it around in my head to a shape that I do like.

[numberQ]

Ah you know what, I think my theorizing isn't considering the fact that scum HAD to swap. That might make scenario 2 more valid? Because then they definitely have to send either Toog or Pav to the Keep. Does it make sense for them to send Pav? I did lightly SR Toog D1. Though I don't think I gave off an indication it was a strong read at all. Just bad vibes mostly. Whereas I was pretty happy with my DArby SR. And it doesn't look like implo talked about either, so that'd be null in the scumteam's decision. IMO it would have made more sense for Toog to go to the Keep in a {Pav, Toog, ?} situation.

[Aristeia]

NumberQ can you rewrite your thoughts for me please? I am having issues understanding your wall.

[imaginality]

Huh, well for starters obviously [v] VP Baltar [/v] - by no means do I want Tanner to rush his vote but since I know VP is confscum I might as well do this now.

Okay now for a bit of a wall post or two, catching up with other stuff from today:

[quote="In [url=https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p13185034]post 442[/url], numberQ"]Long night made me forget a lot of the game state lol

Was Pav moved because they're scum and it was obvious that slot would be voted out at the Wall? I could see both Luke and Ari being town tbh in light of this swap.
[/quote]

So basically you think it could be a scum-scum swap scenario?
If implo is scum then scum had a more or less guaranteed win with implo at Keep, given he was the most townread of the three, so I'm not sure there'd be benefit for them in this swap unless their read on the gamestate is significantly different to mine.

[quote="In [url=https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p13185040]post 444[/url], numberQ"]Oh wait, if Pav is scum and they were swapped then either A) implo is ALSO scum and we managed to put one scum in each location by accident, or B) Toog is lockscum.
[/quote]

From your POV yes, I'm a bit wary of how you state this without that qualifier though. Since for the rest of us it only means either Toog OR you are scum.

[quote="In [url=https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p13185127]post 468[/url], Aristeia"][quote="In [url=https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p13185118]post 463[/url], Pavowski"]We don't have to get scum here, we just have to find town. This is easy and makes me think even more that Luke is scum, because I know he thinks (knows) he can look townier than me.[/quote]

?

If you think Luke is scum why wouldn't you just vote for me?

Do you think Luke is bluffing about voting for me to convince you to vote for him?[/quote]

@Ari, it sounds from this like you think Pav should have the voting power in Keep rather than you or Luke, is that right?

[quote="In [url=https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p13185137]post 475[/url], Aristeia"]I think over focus on one minigame to the detriment of others might be minus town EV

I think every player should be trying to play and win their own minigame concurrently while also giving opinions on the other games.[/quote]

100% agree with this. Though I think rather than resolve minigames in order of certainty, resolve them in order of how useful the flips will be for solving the remaining games.

[quote="In [url=https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p13185144]post 477[/url], Tanner"]
i think the first step here is having everyone give their introduction thoughts. at least on their own game, preferably on the others too. then it will be easier to decide the order, when we figure out what flips give info for where. [/quote]

For me, off the cuff (I haven't reread D1 in depth yet cos Christmas etc.):

- Gate: Well my read is obviously VP is scum. I am happy to go dig through his iso but from your POV I might be scum trying to bias your reads so I'll stick to fairly objective points. And obviously happy to answer any questions/requests.

I'm a bit surprised this game didn't get changed cos I think the choice of you as IC points to VP, so that makes me see the Darby - implosion swap as either a necessary S/T one, or as scum thinking it is a more useful swap than disrupting the Gate.

One other thought I had: if you don't have a clear view on whether the scum in our game is VP or me, it might be useful to see where VP and I differ in our reads on other games and resolve those game(s) first to help you decide between us.

- Wall: I want to re-read before commenting as I didn't have a strong read on either Toogeloo or numberQ D1. I think implosion is town because wouldn't scum implosion just stay put at Keep? So for me, the only scenario implosion is scum is if one of Luke/Ari is also scum.

- Keep: if either of Ari or Luke is scum, by play alone my hunch is still on Ari scum. If either of them is scum they likely brought in Pav mainly to swap out implosion, which implies the scum among them thinks Pav was a better choice to swap in than me/Tanner/numberQ/Toogeloo. The Luke - Pav history might be a point against Luke here?

The alternative scenario of Luke-Ari town and scum dumping the DArby/Pav slot into Keep is also very possible. Weighing against that somewhat: I don't recall anyone trying to angle against implo joining Keep? Rereading that part of the D1 discussion is high on my to do list.

[imaginality]

Huh, well for starters obviously VOTE: VP Baltar - by no means do I want Tanner to rush his vote but since I know VP is confscum I might as well do this now.

Okay now for a bit of a wall post or two, catching up with other stuff from today:

Long night made me forget a lot of the game state lol

Was Pav moved because they're scum and it was obvious that slot would be voted out at the Wall? I could see both Luke and Ari being town tbh in light of this swap.

So basically you think it could be a scum-scum swap scenario?
If implo is scum then scum had a more or less guaranteed win with implo at Keep, given he was the most townread of the three, so I'm not sure there'd be benefit for them in this swap unless their read on the gamestate is significantly different to mine.

Oh wait, if Pav is scum and they were swapped then either A) implo is ALSO scum and we managed to put one scum in each location by accident, or B) Toog is lockscum.

From your POV yes, I'm a bit wary of how you state this without that qualifier though. Since for the rest of us it only means either Toog OR you are scum.

We don't have to get scum here, we just have to find town. This is easy and makes me think even more that Luke is scum, because I know he thinks (knows) he can look townier than me.

?

If you think Luke is scum why wouldn't you just vote for me?

Do you think Luke is bluffing about voting for me to convince you to vote for him?

@Ari, it sounds from this like you think Pav should have the voting power in Keep rather than you or Luke, is that right?

I think over focus on one minigame to the detriment of others might be minus town EV

I think every player should be trying to play and win their own minigame concurrently while also giving opinions on the other games.

100% agree with this. Though I think rather than resolve minigames in order of certainty, resolve them in order of how useful the flips will be for solving the remaining games.

i think the first step here is having everyone give their introduction thoughts. at least on their own game, preferably on the others too. then it will be easier to decide the order, when we figure out what flips give info for where.

For me, off the cuff (I haven't reread D1 in depth yet cos Christmas etc.):

- Gate: Well my read is obviously VP is scum. I am happy to go dig through his iso but from your POV I might be scum trying to bias your reads so I'll stick to fairly objective points. And obviously happy to answer any questions/requests.

I'm a bit surprised this game didn't get changed cos I think the choice of you as IC points to VP, so that makes me see the Darby - implosion swap as either a necessary S/T one, or as scum thinking it is a more useful swap than disrupting the Gate.

One other thought I had: if you don't have a clear view on whether the scum in our game is VP or me, it might be useful to see where VP and I differ in our reads on other games and resolve those game(s) first to help you decide between us.

- Wall: I want to re-read before commenting as I didn't have a strong read on either Toogeloo or numberQ D1. I think implosion is town because wouldn't scum implosion just stay put at Keep? So for me, the only scenario implosion is scum is if one of Luke/Ari is also scum.

- Keep: if either of Ari or Luke is scum, by play alone my hunch is still on Ari scum. If either of them is scum they likely brought in Pav mainly to swap out implosion, which implies the scum among them thinks Pav was a better choice to swap in than me/Tanner/numberQ/Toogeloo. The Luke - Pav history might be a point against Luke here?

The alternative scenario of Luke-Ari town and scum dumping the DArby/Pav slot into Keep is also very possible. Weighing against that somewhat: I don't recall anyone trying to angle against implo joining Keep? Rereading that part of the D1 discussion is high on my to do list.

[Aristeia]

@Ari, it sounds from this like you think Pav should have the voting power in Keep rather than you or Luke, is that right?

I don't think of the Keep that way.

If I get to 100% sure of the solution I will not hesitate to vote.

[Aristeia]

Imaginality how prepared would you say you were for this 1v1?

[Tanner]

- Gate: Well my read is obviously VP is scum. I am happy to go dig through his iso but from your POV I might be scum trying to bias your reads so I'll stick to fairly objective points. And obviously happy to answer any questions/requests.

I'm a bit surprised this game didn't get changed cos I think the choice of you as IC points to VP, so that makes me see the Darby - implosion swap as either a necessary S/T one, or as scum thinking it is a more useful swap than disrupting the Gate.

don't worry, you're not rushing my vote. i am... notorious for dragging out the yelo decisions until the last second, so.

i would like to know what "objective" points you believe you have against baltar. how does me being ic'ed point to him being scum? and why were you thinking our game was going to get changed?

[Tanner]

oh yeah, so i don't forget, question for baltar: could you compare your townread of implosion in this game to your townread of bingle in the pick your poison game? and i'd like everyone else to ignore this.

[imaginality]

Just thinking abut the game, and I realized that Baltar and imaginality's are in a better position then anyone else to make reads across the games. Who ever is the town in that pair basically have a scum flip to work with. They can actually make associative reads and partner hunt against the other person.

Agreed, though it's not so black and white as others can also partner hunt they just have to do it for two players in their games. So twice the effort but also useful.

Thinking about the swap and which scenarios make sense:

Implosion Town, Pavowski Scum

Counterpoint: Why flip out Implosion out of the three of us if keep is TTT? Implosion is arguably the most townread out of the keep players pre-d2 so does it really make sense to flip him out of the keep? Is the hope that Ari/Luke refuse to trust each other? But Luke has already said multiple times he trusts me so what's even the objective here? Why would scum not just walk into keep regularly if Luke/Ari is T/T instead of wasting the switch?

I have issues with this worldview, I'm not sure if I'm being overly paranoid but I struggle to see which scum team decides this is a good move.

I agree with your analysis of the first two scenarios, but this one - if scum swap in wouldn't they want to swap in for the most townread to give them the best chance of winning Keep? And walking into the third slot after you two had voted would have drawn suspicion on them, I think. So I think this scenario is more likely than you see it. Although you do seem to arrive at the same conclusion later:

I guess the simplest explanation for what went on is that Luke/Me is T/T and nobody on scum team wanted to come to keep with us with 1 scum player inactive.

Pavo then switched in because he was a replacement and decided to take the fall for his team at that point.

I don't think I'm going to vote unless Tanner tells me it's ok to trust that person

Seems sensible. @Luke and @Pav will you commit to taking the same approach?

My assumption for The (edit: Wall) was that we were the unsorted and most likely to have 2 scum. I didn't like numberQ yesterday they kept making pushes as me scum early, and then again at day start today. I don't recall implosion's play yesterday, but I do recall them being mostly town read.

I'm currently leaning scum were already 1/1/1 in the games, and Darby was probably moved to The Keep for chaos purposes.

Why did you shift from your 2-1-0 view to your 1-1-1 view?

Tanner, I am only skimming. Are we certain to have a scum at the gate? If yes, resolving that first makes sense. We can yeet imaginality into the sun.

I have no idea why others are taking this at face value especially given:

i was gonna say "surely scum!him doesn't fake *this*, right?"

but i still remember my first game with him, where scum!him deadass went "guys, does scum have daytalk?" and like, yes he does.

Also would VP really be that clueless as town? Considering also there was plenty of mech discussion some of which he was involved in on D1.

i think gate should resolve either second or last

if implo or lukewarm flip scum it makes it much less likely imo that imaginality is scum here

Would flipping imaginality provide an inverse associative...if so, doesn't it make significantly more sense to flip the gate first since that's a 50/50?

Keep is a 67% chance for town so why does flipping the 50/50 Gate first make more sense odds wise?

Tanner although we are worlds apart may I still flirt with you? the two lads in the keep seem more interested in each other :/

This is two times tonight you've made me laugh, and that might be worth a vote

Please don't just side with the funniest players. Or I would win every game

I am trying to pick your brain to see what information that gives you about the rest of the game and why it might be so.

Right. Me getting your thoughts also is helpful though. Two way street and all. I'm merely asking you to comment on the gate. I understand wanting me to talk first on the other games.

This discussion felt like VP was holding back on giving reads on other games until Ari had given reads on the Gate? I'm wondering what his angle was here.

Toogeloo
- in my head I thought they were lurking but they've posted more than I remembered, probably a town point as my scumdar pings louder than my towndar
- some good questioning of Ari
- I'm doubtful of his idea that it's better not to give reads yet but doesn't seem like a stance scum would take

Looking at imaginality's wall post right now because snow and ice has canceled my dinner plans...

This read looks very fake reasons to me. Other than "some good questioning of Ari", imaginality is hand waving here by stating 'these things might be scummy, but ill actually town read Toog for them'. Which is unfortunate because I had kind of had gut town pings on Toog.

Okay this is a clear misrep. Handily VP has quoted my post. I didn't say any of those things might be scummy.

DArby
-rejected a couple of suggestions but no apparent intent to figure out if they came from wrong town or scum
-don't feel like he's trying to scum hunt
-don't feel like he's trying to help town progress

This scum read on Darby may be accurate, but feels made up at that point in the game perhaps. Darby wasn't hardly even in the game, but imaginality had him at the bottom of the list for not helping town progress and not scum hunting.

Seems overly aggressive read when few people were truly scumhunting D1

It was early, most firm reads at that point could be called overly aggressive (or at least overly confident which is what I assume you mean; for me I use 'aggressive' more for in your face playstyle).

It would move the game discussion less if I caveated all my reads with "of course it's early days so this is all pretty speculative blah blah."

Also DArby being hardly in the game was kinda part of why I said he wasn't helping town, so..?

[Tanner]

thank you for the music last night ari, it was lovely, and i did sleep really well.

I don't think I'm going to vote unless Tanner tells me it's ok to trust that person

If I get to 100% sure of the solution I will not hesitate to vote.

could you tell me the difference between these two?

[imaginality]

@Ari, it sounds from this like you think Pav should have the voting power in Keep rather than you or Luke, is that right?

I don't think of the Keep that way.

If I get to 100% sure of the solution I will not hesitate to vote.

Okay, fair.
I just thought there was agreement D1 on how it would be played, or was it just that someone (Luke?) suggested it and everyone else ignored it so it went undiscussed?

Imaginality how prepared would you say you were for this 1v1?

Not prepared in that the last week of work was crazy and then there was Christmas shenanigans. So I didn't do any in depth rereads or the like despite the long night.

i would like to know what "objective" points you believe you have against baltar. how does me being ic'ed point to him being scum? and why were you thinking our game was going to get changed?

I'll give you more on VP post re-read.

Re. the IC choice: for what it's worth (precisely nothing since I'd say the same as scum), if I were scum I'd prefer to 1v1 Tanner and try to get VP to side with me.
You/others you can and should decide for yourselves who would prefer which match-up, don't take my word on it.

In my head I was expecting the Gate would get swapped because by the end of D1 I felt like there was a decent chance it was T/T/T.

[Tanner]

Re. the IC choice: for what it's worth (precisely nothing since I'd say the same as scum), if I were scum I'd prefer to 1v1 Tanner and try to get VP to side with me.

really? scum!you isn't the type to say "yeah, i totally would have picked you as the ic, the fuck you gonna do, vote me?"

still, why do you think baltar is more likely to want to 1v1 you than he is to 1v1 me?

[Pavowski]

Seems sensible. @Luke and @Pav will you commit to taking the same approach?

I have already stated that if consensus is we should do it this way, I am happy to let town direct my vote here (though that's slightly different from what Aristeia is suggesting, which is letting Tanner decide)

I would much rather be able to blame you guys than have to live with the shame myself if you make me vote wrong.

[imaginality]

Re. the IC choice: for what it's worth (precisely nothing since I'd say the same as scum), if I were scum I'd prefer to 1v1 Tanner and try to get VP to side with me.

really? scum!you isn't the type to say "yeah, i totally would have picked you as the ic, the fuck you gonna do, vote me?"

still, why do you think baltar is more likely to want to 1v1 you than he is to 1v1 me?

I'm not so in-your-face as either town or scum. And if I was the type and was scum here... Wouldn't I have said that already?

Like I say though, I don't think my views on my own play matter, I'm just sharing them as part of my thought process here.

I think VP Baltar would prefer you because of your D1 suspicions of me and because of his friendliness towards me D1. I don't think it's a clear cut decision - and in addition, presumably, he would be weighing up our reads on his scum buddies since whoever is IC has a lot of influence over the other minigames.

(On which point, maybe there's value in contrasting your stated D1 reads vs mine to see what the differences are; I'll also do that on my reread.)

But in isolation I think scum VP is more likely to pick you as IC than scum me.

Again, to be clear, I am not saying "you being IC is clear evidence VP's the villain." It's a marginal thing. Probably of bigger interest, certainly once I flip town, is why VP picked you over me.

[imaginality]

I think VP Baltar would prefer you because of your D1 suspicions of me and because of his friendliness towards me D1

Clarifying this: the friendliness gives him cover for "wouldn't he want imaginality as IC" wifom but the fact you had actual suspicions of me is more likely to influence your decision of voting him vs me than his being friendly to me is to influence mine of voting him vs you.

[Pavowski]

Please don't just side with the funniest players. Or I would win every game

This is nothing you have to worry about, I am the only funny player on site so I would only ever side with myself

[VP Baltar]

oh yeah, so i don't forget, question for baltar: could you compare your townread of implosion in this game to your townread of bingle in the pick your poison game? and i'd like everyone else to ignore this.

Ouch haha.

To your point, I do have a weakness for townreading people who I find charming/enjoyable to play with...at least at first. I try to play this game for fun, so that is appealing to me. I can't recall specifically what was townpinging me on Bingle D1but I believe it was because he felt like he was in active engagement with the game. I felt early on that game like scum were sitting back since there were obv townies doing that too. It gave them cover.

I think the difference here with implosion is that I got my strongest town ping on him because he revealed his optimal town strategy in thread here BEFORE I asked him to post the scum PT from the last game, where he stated that strategy to his scum buddies. I suspect scum wouldn't be offering what they thought was legitimate good advice to town early on in the game. Could have all been a well thought out plan by implo knowing someone would look at that scum PT, but that's a lot of forethought.

Because I feel the need to defend my honor since the implication of this question is I'm a big dummy who aligns with scum D1 (not wrong entirely!)...I was among the first to shift my bingle read in that game and was questioning him as scum, but pooky was so obsessed with me by that point I couldn't overcome the noise. (I also had enchant as the most likely bingle partner, so maybe it doesn't mean much!)

If you want more specifics on why I townread bingle that game, I can go fetch them. I'm just not at a computer until later today and that sounds like too much work to skim for on my phone.

[Tanner]

Because I feel the need to defend my honor since the implication of this question is I'm a big dummy who aligns with scum D1

no, not at all. if you're a dummy, i am too, i died townreading bingle that game.

my question is moreso that i'm seeing certain other parallels between you townreading bingle that game and you townreading implosion this game. mainly, townreading them *for* doing mechanical analysis (and i guess sounding kinda genuine while they're doing it). and i find it kind of strange that you would townread implo for that right after you got burned townreading bingle for it.

I suspect scum wouldn't be offering what they thought was legitimate good advice to town early on in the game.

specifically this part. this is exactly what bingle does when he's scum. i'm not sure if it was touched on in that game that bingle's analysis is always pro-town regardless of his alignment, but in hindsight it is *weird* that this behaviour earned a townread for implo.

[VP Baltar]

my question is moreso that i'm seeing certain other parallels between you townreading bingle that game and you townreading implosion this game. mainly, townreading them *for* doing mechanical analysis (and i guess sounding kinda genuine while they're doing it). and i find it kind of strange that you would townread implo for that right after you got burned townreading bingle for it.

See dummy part.

But I guess I just think on net, implo is more likely to be town here since there us a correlated piece of evidence (the scum PT) to show he is posting in earnest. To your point, it's not a free pass for implo and I'll still objectively analyze his play in the game. He's not locktown for that one thing.