Open 840 - Guardians of the Fortress [Game Over]

[Lukewarm]

@Ari, it sounds from this like you think Pav should have the voting power in Keep rather than you or Luke, is that right?

I don't think of the Keep that way.

If I get to 100% sure of the solution I will not hesitate to vote.

oh. I guess my last point was wrong.

Ari, you probably should not be the voter. (See implos 178 when I suggested being the voter).

[Aristeia]

I think Baltar is a much stronger 1v1er than Imaginality, it feels like a bit of a mismatch to put him at Gate, I think you/implo would have much better odds of winning the 1v1 there.

how does the fact that luke self-assigned at the keep immediately play into this?

I would imagine the scum team decided to split up assignments pregame.

I don't think imaginality volunteers for Gate unless there's no stronger options to throw at it, his scum game isn't as confrontational or 1v1'y as Baltar's.

[Aristeia]

Ari, you probably should not be the voter. (See implos 178 when I suggested being the voter).

Is this a mechanical argument or are you expressing a town-read?

[Tanner]

something feels incorrect about that argument, but i'm not sure how to express it. like, if we assume you/luke are town, and you two jumped at the keep early. from there on we decided to assign the last person at the keep collectively. wouldn't it make more sense for scum!imaginality (who's allegedly a weaker scum player, or at least less confrontational) to go to the gate rather than wall?

actually, depends on how scum are attempting to balance the games, huh.

[Lukewarm]

If a townie in the keep decides that they are voting, that makes the keep a 50/50 based on that townies reads.

If we pick out the scummiest and make them vote, that is a 33% chance to win on the spot if we are right. and then that person gets to vote, getting a 50/50 to win if we are wrong.

-----

So a town read townie deciding they are the voter makes this game a 50% chance to win.

Making this game a two step solving process makes this game a 66% chance to win.

[Tanner]

ari, if you were scum, would you tell your buddies to make me the ic?

[Lukewarm]

Ari, you probably should not be the voter. (See implos 178 when I suggested being the voter).

Is this a mechanical argument or are you expressing a town-read?

Both.

I walked into the day with you as town, and Pav swapping in hasn't changed that.

You offering to vote is also a good look

[Lukewarm]

don't worry, you're not rushing my vote. i am... notorious for dragging out the yelo decisions until the last second, so.

If this is the case, we should probably set "Deadlines" to flip our first and second game, to make sure that we are not pushing the first flip out so far that the last game does not have time to course correct / read adjust from the other flips

[Lukewarm]

My assumption for The (edit: Wall) was that we were the unsorted and most likely to have 2 scum. I didn't like numberQ yesterday they kept making pushes as me scum early, and then again at day start today. I don't recall implosion's play yesterday, but I do recall them being mostly town read.

I'm currently leaning scum were already 1/1/1 in the games, and Darby was probably moved to The Keep for chaos purposes.

Why did you shift from your 2-1-0 view to your 1-1-1 view?

This is a good question for Toog. What makes you think that were 1-1-1 over 2-1-0?

[numberQ]

I asked them the same thing. The more I let it simmer the more I think the scumteam is Pav/Toog/? (I'm a little less tuned into the Gate). Putting out a 1/1/1 lean without an explanation strikes me as scum trying to make us think there couldn't have been 2 scum in one location pre-swap.

I'll give some benefit of the doubt considering Toog's fever though, and would like to hear their response when they're feeling better.

[numberQ]

don't worry, you're not rushing my vote. i am... notorious for dragging out the yelo decisions until the last second, so.

If this is the case, we should probably set "Deadlines" to flip our first and second game, to make sure that we are not pushing the first flip out so far that the last game does not have time to course correct / read adjust from the other flips

Day deadline is 10 days out. Should we aim for 3-4 days from now for our first game?

[Aristeia]

ari, if you were scum, would you tell your buddies to make me the ic?

Of course dear.

There's nobody townier than you in my eyes <3

[Aristeia]

but I also wouldn't go to keep and ask you to come with me.

I think if I'm scum I probably just go to gate for the 1v1.

I'm much better/more comfortable at 1v1ing than "looking town"

[Aristeia]

Both.

I walked into the day with you as town, and Pav swapping in hasn't changed that.

You offering to vote is also a good look

I feel somewhat guilty I can't get there with you currently but if you're mafia you're doing a masterful job <3

[imaginality]

I think Baltar is a much stronger 1v1er than Imaginality, it feels like a bit of a mismatch to put him at Gate, I think you/implo would have much better odds of winning the 1v1 there.

how does the fact that luke self-assigned at the keep immediately play into this?

I would imagine the scum team decided to split up assignments pregame.

I don't think imaginality volunteers for Gate unless there's no stronger options to throw at it, his scum game isn't as confrontational or 1v1'y as Baltar's.

Nah, after being on Pooky's scum team in Pokemon Mafia and watching him win a 1v1 against Milobird that went on for over a thousand posts, my scum side feels inspired and whenever I'm next scum I'll channel Pooky's spirit to win any 1v1 I'm in. Bring on the 1v1s!

[Aristeia]

That's so cheeky if you're mafia >.>

[implosion]

First off, irrespective of anything else, thoughts on the swap knowing that I'm town.

If Pav is scum, then the scum had exactly 6 legal swaps: they had to swap one of Pav/the other wall scum with one of me/ari/luke. I think if this is the case it's obviously viable that they'd make this swap; their options are just so limited. In my mind the keep was the likeliest place to have 3 town and the wall was the likeliest place to have 2 scum, and this is because... well wall is where we put the lurky/scummy players and I think everyone (except maybe ari but I never really pinned down a good individual read on her) at Keep was towny. Scum would be

forced

to swap a towny town with a scummy scum in this situation. The problem with this is that, of course, it's just assuming that our "collective reads" pre-swap were like, really good. Or at least that mine were. Like Ari said it's just very arrogant. But of course it can still be true.

If Pav is town, then it was 1-1-1 and the world is scum's oyster for options. I can certainly think of reasons they'd want to do this. The obvious one is that they felt keep was unwinnable with me there, which I think would be foolish if they did think that, but that's neither here nor there. The simplest explanation is if scum thought I was going to be townread no matter what, then swapping me to wall turns a situation they can't win and a situation they can win into two situations they can win.

Regardless of all of this, one thing I am interested in is that VP Baltar was the first one to suggest me as the third person in Keep. I think that's fairly + town for him if it turns out that Keep was all-town pre-swap. Which is another reason to resolve Gate later.

Back to reading.

[implosion]

One other thought I had: if you don't have a clear view on whether the scum in our game is VP or me, it might be useful to see where VP and I differ in our reads on other games and resolve those game(s) first to help you decide between us.

Hard line here (not certain if this is what you were saying but it's important to mention either way): we should

not

trust people more because their reads on other games are more accurate. Scum have absolutely every incentive to bus their buddies in this setup - after all, they have absolutely no power to vote for each other, so they might as well distance to all heck if they think it'll work.

We should give either exactly 0 credit or a very tiny amount of credit to someone for being town because they had a correct read in this setup at this point. The only disincentive to bus is that you might accidentally convince someone who actually has power to vote for your scumbuddy. To be clear it's fine to resolve other games first and then use those to help read imaginality and VP but those reads should not be based simply on how right each of their reads were.

This said: it'd be pretty wild if imaginality-scum gave this line, and then gave completely inaccurate reads. So if imaginality is scum it's likely that his "reads" here are at least somewhat accurate (and well, he's calling me town so etc, but).

[implosion]

Another thing I'm remembering from the first run of the game, looking at NumberQ's analysis, is that we felt pretty defeatist in that game when we were deciding the swap. I think me and Something_Smart both thought we were entering unwinnable games, to a degree. Or like, each of us thought we were making our own game unwinnable in order to make the other two better. It's entirely possible that scum would do that with the swap if they thought the DArby slot was unredeemable (which, again, i think they'd be making a mistake by thinking that way but etc).

1) Toog is scum, Pav is not. Splitting them up makes little sense, because it's putting implo (who was fairly TRed D1) into the Wall (which would have had myself, Toog, and Pav, 3 slots who were not very TRed). Why not keep the three of us in the Keep so it's that much harder for town to win?

You're missing something simple here which is that if me and Pav are both town, and scum think I'm more widely townread, the result of the swap isn't just that Wall becomes harder for scum to win, it's also that Keep becomes easier for scum to win.

[implosion]

I think we're more or less getting to the end of the ultimately very small rope that contains all the advantage we can get by analyzing setup info and we should be figuring things out more traditionally at this point, based primarily on D2 content if possible.

One sort of small thing that I've noticed: I, for one, absolutely forgot like half of my opinions overnight. I did not think about this game almost at all during the break and I kind of imagine scum would have been thinking about it more than town, for a couple reasons. One is that they have to pick what assignments to make, another is that since they know what the locations will look like they'll have a higher degree of anticipation. With this in mind:

Long night made me forget a lot of the game state lol

Was Pav moved because they're scum and it was obvious that slot would be voted out at the Wall? I could see both Luke and Ari being town tbh in light of this swap.

I have to look back at Toog and implo to remind myself what I thought of them.

I actually think this is +town for nQ for these reasons. I kind of don't see scum as being as likely to come into today with the attitude of "I kind of forgot where I was at during night".

Compare to Toog's opening post today:

I think The Wall should resolve right away. I think both imaginality and Baltar have given at least a few stances that serve as associatives to do the Gate and the Keep.

Tanner becoming an IC is good, and better than various scenarios I was thinking of happening.

I kept my reads close because I was certain Luke was buddying me early on with their encouragements to join the Keep and town reading me. Almost half the players in the game are scum and I didn't want to give them anything to work with.

Going into today, I didn't have much in the way of scum reads, I was playing as I usually do and trying to figure out town reads first. Tanner and imaginality we're early town reads, I think. I can't remember the game state since last week. I think I also liked Baltar, but no one got swapped there, so I'm wrong somewhere. I thought the Wall was going to have a swap.

My assumption for The Gate was that we were the unsorted and most likely to have 2 scum. I didn't like numberQ yesterday they kept making pushes as me scum early, and then again at day start today. I don't recall implosion's play yesterday, but I do recall them being mostly town read.

I'm currently leaning scum were already 1/1/1 in the games, and Darby was probably moved to The Keep for chaos purposes.

I think The Wall should resolve first, and we go from there.

He says he can't remember the gamestate much since last week but he also gives quite a few specific reads. The post feels a lot more prepared than numberQ's, whereas numberQ's posting today gives me a kind of genuine sense of being caught off guard.

I'm also inclined to townread nQ's swap discussion. There's nuance to it and this line feels genuine to me:

This scares me because swap analysis points me to a totally different conclusion than pure play analysis did. I sure would like others to weigh in on this theory because I don't like it lol, but I can't roll it around in my head to a shape that I do like.

I'm curious what Tanner thinks because I feel like I'm sort of starting to tunnel mentally on a gamestate where the scumteam is Toog/imaginality/??. Obviously I'm not locking into that or anything and I want to hear more from Toog. I'm mostly just trying to catch myself before committing more strongly to opinions than they have merit.

[Tanner]

there are still some things i want to see happen on their own first before i give my full thoughts. why do you think imaginality is the scum between him and baltar?

[implosion]

Tbh, tunneling on the dumbtell a bit.

[Aristeia]

Implosion,

if the game is at 1-1-1 preswap,

why do you think you get flipped to wall instead of gate?

[Toogeloo]

Why did you shift from your 2-1-0 view to your 1-1-1 view?

My original assumption was it was all town at your location. The fact that no one shifted from there LEDs me to the more likely scenario of 1/1/1

[Lukewarm]

One sort of small thing that I've noticed: I, for one, absolutely forgot like half of my opinions overnight. I did not think about this game almost at all during the break and I kind of imagine scum would have been thinking about it more than town

I feel like this might also be a personality thing - I for one get mildly obsessive with my games, like lay in bed at night thinking about them. But, from what I have seen from Toog, I don't think that he is that way. So, your point about Toog seems good.

I feel like people keep making good points, or they make posts that ping me, and I keep flip flopping on numberQ/Toog and imaginality/Baltar. I need to nail down my reads on these 4 :/