Holiday Dance Party ---- Game Over

[Alyssa The Lamb]

I've seen Fire endgame as town before

[Save The Dragons]

that doesn't mean he doesn't yolo leave dance games

fire can you flesh out your andante read?

[Harley Quinn]

why does town fire who suspects his partner not leave

in squid game fire said he yolo leaves often in dance games, but the way the pairings worked out, he was scum paired with another scum so he couldn't yolo leave.

plus i don't think anything he's said is outside his scum range. i'm not confident it's kind of one of those town reads you get paranoid about, but i've got reasons to tr most every one else in the game.

An incredibly protown reason

Fire

doesn't leave.

He is listening to me and wants me to post first.

That's not something everybody seems interested in.

Yeah you’re probably right.

[Taly]

Summary:

The + system refers to how I rank the players as most effective later game AGAINST my personal read. It's how I'm quantifying the pairs by how they've interacted with the thread, what their dynamic with their partner is, and how confident I am in a read on them. Higher + players in this ranking are townreads that I feel comfortable lasting longer in this game. The clearest drawback to this is that I townread at least one person in every single pair with moderate strength. This perpetuates TvT environment which is why I suggested townhunting earlier because I don't think the most active players in disagreement are scum

{HQ, Fire, Datisi, Titus}

, and my strongest townreads have someone that is half their + value. This ranking is also relative because I don't actually start to lose confidence and townreads until the (+1)-(+5) player range, because everybody is ranked versus each other and there are only 3 scum left in this game. So my error rate with this list is 1:4 to 1:5 players (~2-3 misreads.)

~

(+11.5) Titus *TIE*

This is partially a meta read because I've had the most extensive history with

Titus

out of everyone on this list, and she is 1 of 3 people in this game that I have actually hydra'd with. This biases me, but my read accuracy with her is strong regardless of her alignment. Even then, she has been the most communicative and guiding player in this entire game toward an IC slot. Just like with

Something_Smart

and

Alyssa

, I could quote an entire wall of posts that I feel have actively helped me that I do not detect any clear malicious intent from. I thought about doing links here but people can just ask for them...

The only point I can think of versus this slot is the idea that

LLD

could've had an ulterior motive with arranging my pair. Also because

Titus

might be taking an active approach to steer me in a certain direction, but with the context of

Nancy V Titus

, this seems to have a protown agenda even if playstyles conflict.

Oh, and unless

HQ/Titus

are S/S and this game is a nightmare - which I really think is almost never the case here,

Titus

is candidly town with her more nurturing approach to her slot. It's just... under extremely unfavorable scum conditions

Titus

can kill her partners faster than bug spray kills flies, I'm sure she's town atp. 3 T/S pairs seems more combative a gamestate to town than scum.

~

(+11.5) Alyssa the Lamb *TIE*

Another player I'm biased via history and a pretty expansive hydra past. She also has engaged a lot with an IC on a level I don't think Mafia are willing to. She's actively hurting herself as scum by positing herself as never endgame material. Like, unless

SS/Galron/Titus/StD

contain 2 of her partners to compose a team, which, fuck, I don't see

Alyssa

being scum. I honestly do not have any points to suggest she is scum. If she is scum and I'm deeply pocketed, this has been completely accidental on her end, and that contributes greatly to her + value.

Anything else I can discuss about her will best be addressed to

GL

.

~

(+10) Datisi

I think the drain

Datisi

has experienced this game is to a level of townbinning. They seem genuinely frustrated and strong in their convictions and I think that's a merging tactic with their partner, which I think is very much a behavior likelier to come from town. Whether I agree with this slot's approach to the proposition of 1v1ing and my reservation with their partner is why they are not higher than

Titus

or

Alyssa

. My initial reason for being comfortable with

Dat's

pair with

GL

was that he could best tell a more controversial slot's alignment. I don't see a lot of progression with how

Datisi

has viewed

GL

throughout this game and that is something I want to hear from in a very concise post.

I think this read may come as pretty hard to hear for this slot so I sympathize.

~

(+9) Something_Smart

I'll be truthful, I spent even more time debating

Harley/Fire/SS

+ value than I did

Titus/Alyssa

. This came down to my lack of comprehension of how and why

SS

-scum has the end-of-Predance ISO that they do. Even if I lowered

SS

, it would not change their and

Fire/Harley's

overall pair placement. Their spat with

Harley

feels town of them since he acknowledges a playstyle clash.

There's still that thought in the back of my mind that this pair being last contains scum, but I also think that's an easy narrative for scum to pivot on T/T and another reason for my reservation to push First Dance.

Also

SS

has done a lot of

"IC help"

like

Titus/Alyssa

so. 1312 3435 3440 3555 3610 3641 and more...

~

(+8) Firebringer

Fire doge. Memes a lot. Feels much good. So town.

That's the premise behind every game I don't want to eliminate

Fire

quickly in. I don't know if spending more time thinking on this slot is very necessary. I think they're willingness to take down their partner is a trait that town-

Fire

has expressed in previous games, and the fact that they're heeding my word before pulling any trigger is extremely protown because scum do NOT want me to give legacy thoughts even if my thoughts had a higher than normal error rate because what IS correct about my reads will be heavily factored against any mid-to-late-game narrative they want to pull.

Like, they're this low because of similar reasons

HQ

is low, thread wants them or their partner to perish and this stage is the most sound time to take this as a valid reasoning to eliminate. I think

Fire

himself should give legacy thoughts.

~

(+7) Harley Quinn

This is the soul of town!

Harley

. I just think as scum being pushed, they'd have more compromising input and emotional injection into the thread. I think they are stern in their beliefs but they don't seem informed because the reads are not a kneejerk reaction to the pressure. What keeps this slot in the midway of + value is the consistent talking about

Ydrasse

despite repeated discouragement of that, and a very incohesive disposition towards a lot of the playerlist. This isn't at all singling her out and I do enjoy playing with her, but I don't think town is likely to keep her late game even without

Shiro's

influence.

Very, very similar feelings to what I said with

Datisi

. I think their partner is very likely T/S and I've yet to see convincing evidence that points me away from this. I think their reactions to the thread have been understandable and I wish I could do more to ease this slot than just say

"this is my vote, it's not on you, sorry."

Harley

, like

Fire

, should give legacy thoughts in the unfortunate event they are eliminated.

~

(+6) Galron

I can't digress my hydra experience with this slot for oog reasons but I have seen this man on different users and I have quite a bit of recent experience that affects my perspective here.

Lots of their posts right now are just tests, this doesn't feel like baiting though, I can see the intention to solve either a partner or assess the temperature about a

Fire/Andante

elimination. 3291 5522 It's like they're taking this thread less seriously because they're confident in their reads and/or confident in the process and do not feel pressured at all. This is a very good sign for a slot that has situationally been given a lot of suspicion. I just don't think they pretend to leave their partner or even as scum trying to punk a townie in their own PT.

Ultimately, while I don't have a roadmap on their scumgame, I think they've made actions in this game that would otherwise be to their sole detriment as scum. This slot would probably be higher if I had more time to sort, I can't tailor a scum mentality here. I could towncase this tbh, and that speaks volumes for how I read players

(+7)-(+12)

. Their ISO is just a mindmeld is retrospect to me and upon looking at them more, I could just swap

S_S/Galron

spots.

~

(+5) Save the Dragons

Another player that I feel has just honestly vibed with me more than not, there is just very little that suggests their alignment either way. I think what I initially enjoyed about this slot is more so a playstyle in finding fun as often as scum because they're capable of actively quote-by-quote walling players and they've since just reinforced popular beliefs in the thread. I want to trust

Titus'

perception of this slot and out of all the pairs, I feel more comfortable with this pairing being able to discern what is scum, I just don't have as good a reason to townread this slot as I do with the majority of the playerlist.

~

(+4) RH9

I have the least defined thoughts about this slot because they are 100% inoffensive even when they're asserting a stance. This suggests scum equity if my understanding of the gamestate is correct because they do not want to be the source of attention in any form, something I think scum would thrive in if there are no S/S pairs. Conversely, their desire for townhunting may come from a newer town player who has found many conflicting narratives within the game thread and is challenged by finding the most accurate one. I also think they've demonstrated a lack of WIM through their interaction with

GL

and I also think the holiday may play a role in their complacency. This could also be a source of playstyle clashing with a partner like

Alyssa

, who seems to build unique solves constantly in a game that don't have any upfront reasoning attached.

This slot is town in some realities, but it's not apparent because they're very subtle and thus their motives can align with almost any scumteam right now. They're either hidden scum or a reason to mislim a T/T pair, and I think people focusing to pursue this right now are suspect for pushing the latter possibility.

~

(+3) GuiltyLion

I feel like I should build a whole new wall atp in the next ~12-20 hr about

GL

because this man is the densest player of them all and it's not an easy task to sort how they come to their conclusions because they seem like strong reads being asserted and yet, they constantly change. I want to say this cracks the game open like an egg, but in the lesser likely scenario this is town that's stuck in the PoE, this is anti-town reason to eliminate alone.

Probably the most difficult slot attach a + value to. Ironically, this lowers the value a lot. If there were any scum pressing an active agenda, which does not seem likely but might be, this is the only answer I'd have confidence in. Otherwise, their convictions are a bit of a rare find from scum. I do think they've tried to soothe people they have 1v1'd like

Titus

in a manner I see from scum at times. I also just feel their

Alyssa

push came out of left field.

I have to say, I need help from

GL

to understand him because I need context on his reads around

Titus/Alyssa

. Kind of biased because they told me I'm pocketed without addressing my reasons for townreading

Alyssa

. They've originally asserted that I was being pushed into scum-

LLD

agenda, and the next part is stating that I am pocketed, or addressing

Ydrasse

alongside

HQ

. I also don't think

Norwe

rejected my dance offer and just wanted to read the thread, so their push on

Norwe

felt easy for scum, but

Marci

would be an S/S interaction in this reality.... Still, this does not feel constructive from another townie, and so, scum seems a possibility here.

This + value can change a lot off of very little tbh... would be in the range of (+2)-(+7), so y'all shouldn't hold your breath. Here's my reply to them:

No I don't want

Aly

limmed

respectfully sir I think you have been pocket'd

Then tell me why. Tell me why Aly pairs with her partner or why she is scum to begin with.

well, she stalled out any possibility of pairing with catboi. if scum!Alyssa is afraid of him being good at reading her I can see why she wouldn't want to pair with him.

My counter is that by the time she wanted to have paired,

catboi

had replaced. Plus, why would scum stall in the first place if

catboi

was not an IC or a heavily suspected slot? It seemed like

Aly

used the proposals as a way to solve.

She didn't have many options left after catboi repped out, it was either RH9, catboi replacement, or Galron

Were any of those bad options? Especially when I prompted for her to pair ASAP when

Datisi/GL

-

Shiro/HQ

-

marci/Norwe

had already paired?

I don't think it's really correct to frame this as a conscious decision to pair with her partner, it was kinda randomly impulsively done like I said after Datisi and I paired. and I could see Alyssa being confident enough in her scum game to try to carry RH9 though endgame, it also means she doesn't have to trick any townies in a PT, that's a ton less effort

But for her to carry

RH9

to endgame is the complete opposite mentality she's mentioned by never being an endgame pair this game... Are you saying most of her posting about how we should think about pairing is conducive to scum or benefits her exclusively?

she's scum by POE largely because I have solid townreads on all of Fire, Datisi, Titus, STD, Galron, S_S, and she started flipping out and OMGUSing once I was casing RH9 and pushing him. not hard to see it, really. she still hasn't once given a good reason to townread RH9

RH9

was not the first person I initially suspected after

Marci/Norwe's

flip, I guess this is relatively trivial, but I don't have reason to think

Alyssa

is protecting

RH9

. I can understand your scumread of

RH9

but factoring my above assessment of that slot, I can't tell if you're doing this to grow the elimination pool. I think this might be an unfair assessment from me especially if we just disagree, but while I see your POV of

Aly

-scum, there's plenty, plenty more I can bring up about a townread on them since they have used their understanding of my mind to help orient me to this game. Plus, your points other than this one are a pretty different interpretation of

Alyssa

than mine and in a game full of townreading and town shitting on each other, it's these nuances in narrative building that give me pause.

~

(+1.5) Andante *TIE*

If there's anyone that I think has tried to speak for me this game, it is this slot earlier Pre-Dance and that impression has stuck to them 1511 and 1540, I'll also note that there wasn't an issue with my townreading of

SS

for doing the same that

Titus

did here. This slot has the lesser degree of my vex with

Shiro

, there seems to be no consistent drive to solving the game because they pop in and out with new thoughts and little follow-through with what you'd think is a free-flowing town perspective. It's like there is a rhythm to a town mindset and a lot of their posts feel to be placeholders for noise. I don't remember why they think the things they do or even their votes.

I will inquiry on this slot, does this look S/S to anyone?

*I mean, "I don't want you to hate me" cause I'm telling Taly I didn't jump for joy when I saw Taly the IC? Taly was definitely giving off the "I want everyone to say good things about me!" vibes lol

how did he give those vibes..? i dont really see it tbh

I mean, have you read anything he has said this game? it's definitely how I interpreted a lot of it, look, I don't care to discuss my taly thoughts here, taly is literally confirmed town, I was laughing at how taly's focus has basically been "talk about me"

~

(+1.5) Shiro *TIE*

The sum of their reply to the suspicion on them has been

"why"

and I stand by my stance that they seemed to know

Marci

would flip scum instead of

Norwe

at a time that they were going to be flipped anyway. It is easier to understand this slot's perspective if it was informed. I have no metric of their meta and nobody has spoken to me directly with evidence that this is town indicative of them. If so, I have missed it.

HQ

, speak to me about this ASAP - everybody in this game should be noise to you until you do.

~

The Verdict-

Titus/Save the Dragons: +16.5
Alyssa the Lamb/RH9: +15.5
Something_Smart/Galron: +15
Datisi/GuiltyLion: +13
Fire/Andante: +9.5
Harley Quinn/Shiro: +8.5

Lower + pairs are ones I am more willing to eliminate at this stage, even if I confidently townread a player in them.

If

(+6)-(+12)

players identify some level of towncore, then

SS/Galron

are a solid later game pair, tbh.

I actually think

Datisi/GL

being T/T means I was or am pocketed somewhere, probably 1 person maximum in the top 3 pairings. This is a Second Dance discussion, and I don't think my input helps much more here unless I'm prodded to bring hypotheticals which I think increases WIFOM around my slot.

[Taly]

one of the longest shits i have taken onto a game in 7.5 years omg

[Taly]

ngl I made the point value mostly before i did majority of the wall

so

GL/Galron

are consistently a higher + but like.

to what - of another player, holistically speaking.

[Alyssa The Lamb]

Taly what did you think of the 1v1 I had with Andante a couple nights ago?

I can scumcase that if you really want me to

[Andante]

1v1? I wouldn't really call it that but ok lol

[Shiro]

Where is solving shiro

To be fair, I am a mechanics solver most of the time or I PoE.

I still stand by my assessment on how people jumped on me being scummy. Scum tend to think I am an easy person to push and jump on me for being fluffy or just derping around.

And that is precisely what happened here. The game had been going in circles and they found it easy, especially Ydras and Tally blessing on it was icing on the cake for scum.

I bet everything on 2 scum being on there.

What I am truly worried here is actually starting to be Harley. Like I fully townread her hence why I treat our pt like a hydra pt but she is mischaracterizing my latest stuff which made me pause. From one side why would scum her even do that? Which led me to think it most likely is that she misunderstood me but still the fact she said she convinced me not to leave was eeeeeeeh weird.

For the record I was never really pissed as she said just simple annoyed and thought of proving a point by leaving in hopes town will follow what I said about those voting me but then was like, hey that is just dumb. Town never follows dead people.

[Firebringer]

This is my heads up Andante. I am leaving the dance in 24 hours. Pls get out everything you want to get out before then.
If anyone has questions for me/andante now is the time.

Taly posted his wall, and I am done with the stalemate.

[Firebringer]

that doesn't mean he doesn't yolo leave dance games

fire can you flesh out your andante read?

ive talked about it a bit. Especially 2 days ago with alyssa and andante talking. Do i need to go back and quote mine myself

[Andante]

This is my heads up Andante. I am leaving the dance in 24 hours. Pls get out everything you want to get out before then.
If anyone has questions for me/andante now is the time.

Taly posted his wall, and I am done with the stalemate.

awww sadness

[Firebringer]

its okay andante, we can shit post in dead pt after this is over.

[Andante]

Like, do people not realize, like SR me ok. if I were scum, there's still 2 others outside me. everyone is just acting like I'm the only 1.. I'd hate to break the news that I'm town, and you're about to be clueless when you see us leave as T/T

[Titus]

Then give us a clue Adante?

[Shiro]

Fire you can help me Lynch Datisi and GL

*puppy eyes*

[Andante]

its okay andante, we can shit post in dead pt after this is over.

lol sounds good to me! probably gonna be more fun that this... we ignore me when I am here, then go "ANDANTE SCUM FOR DOING NOTHING!!!" like ok.. yall chose to say nothing to me when I was here, so like, not my fault I didn't do much, and by now it's like near impossible for me to form a solve so mehh I'm just ready to chill in dead PT and look at this game like "lol we gonna lose, and it's not my fault!"

[Shiro]

Titus you two. Join me!

[Firebringer]

Fire you can help me Lynch Datisi and GL

*puppy eyes*

Shiro this is my biggest townread pair.
I am in fact most worried when i leave. Yall are just gonna yeet them and then we lose the game.
This is one of biggest reasons I haven't left yet, some yall just want them dead and I couldn't disagree more.

[Titus]

Fire you can help me Lynch Datisi and GL

*puppy eyes*

We're not supposed to use that word anymore

[Andante]

who wants my vote? it's free for the taking as long as I'm here. I will vote anyone but Datisi

[Shiro]

Fire you can help me Lynch Datisi and GL

*puppy eyes*

We're not supposed to use that word anymore

Yea I know I slipped, force of habit :/

[Titus]

Titus you two. Join me!

After Adante flips scum.

[Firebringer]

I still want SS and RH9 to be voting and not sidelining here.

[Andante]

Fire you can help me Lynch Datisi and GL

*puppy eyes*

Shiro this is my biggest townread pair.
I am in fact most worried when i leave. Yall are just gonna yeet them and then we lose the game.
This is one of biggest reasons I haven't left yet, some yall just want them dead and I couldn't disagree more.

Titus you two. Join me!

After Adante flips scum.

Lol fire, you called it. Dats/GL are about to get speed limmed