Open 840 - Guardians of the Fortress [Game Over]

[VP Baltar]

Starting my read over coffee now. Probably will take me a good part of the day since I'd like to fully read everything on D2 so far. I'll try to keep responses to a reasonable amount so I'm not spamming the thread.

I think it is kind of crazy people are even considering I'm scum since I drove D1 to arrange D2 partially around Tanner's scum reads. Feel like the town motivation for me to be in the same game as Tanner would also be low since he almost always suspects me. Maybe it would have happened anyhow, but seems like I would not seek that situation out as scum.

I think Tanner also had a question along these lines? I need to go fetch it.

[Pavowski]

@pav - I was not mad and you don't need to apologize for hurting my feelings or something. We're cool.

Also, I had just finished a white knuckled drive for 8 hours on an icy interstate, so I was definitely short tempered about what I thought was opportunistic shading. I apologize too.

Ouch. As the guy who does 95% of the driving on road trips with the fam, you have my sympathies.

[Tanner]

oh yeah, one more thing. for like... almost a week now, i've been coming up with a ted talk regarding the three of us that are at the gate. i wanted to post it after baltar and imaginality give their thoughts on their ~opponent~ and who is most likely scum with them and etc. but also i would like to post it at the time that both of them are online and reading, since i would like some sorta real-time reactions. so, yeah, uh, hopefully that happens soon and i won't have to stay up until like 4am for it.

[VP Baltar]

baltar, do you remember why you wanted me/you/imaginality at the wall originally?

I think I was just being considerate of the fact you said you hated xylos and the gate seemed the most like that straightforward? I didn't really have a strong feeling about game placement when compared to thinking about who was in what game.

[VP Baltar]

baltar, if you're scum who needs to ic one of me/imaginality and 1v1 the other one, who do you pick for what and why?

I guess I would probably IC you because you have played with me too much and are more convincing/likeable than me. I don't know that I could win a 1v1 with you. That is also exactly why I would avoid being with you at the gate though, so...

[VP Baltar]

oh yeah, one more thing. for like... almost a week now, i've been coming up with a ted talk regarding the three of us that are at the gate. i wanted to post it after baltar and imaginality give their thoughts on their ~opponent~ and who is most likely scum with them and etc. but also i would like to post it at the time that both of them are online and reading, since i would like some sorta real-time reactions. so, yeah, uh, hopefully that happens soon and i won't have to stay up until like 4am for it.

I'm semi-around. I do think I'd like to catch up before I real time with you though because it will be more productive for you if I'm not semi lost. I could probably real time with you a bit tomorrow

[Lukewarm]

I feel like I'm sliding towards a Baltar - Pavo - Toogeloo solve and it feels too easy almost.

The feeling of complacency is hard to shake.

Have you talked about reasonings for Baltar and Toog before this?

I just made a +town for numberQ post and a +scum for Baltar post and have been pushing Pav, and not gonna lie, seeing you present that solve immediately after caused a pit in the stomach sensation.

do I really need to? the difference in their depth of thought is somewhat self evident no?

Okay, having time to look back a bit more, I think I have worked my way out of that moment of worry, and figured out why it did worry me in the first place lol

I started out thinking that Toog was the townie in the original wall trio, and my read on him vs numberq has been shifting through out the day. So you presenting that solve, with out any mention of Toog this day felt strange felt strange, because I did not see that read develop to be in your solve. But, we actually started from different places, and you had toog as scummy day 1.

[VP Baltar]

Now bedridden and covered in burns,

Lol just reading the flavor now. Fortunately, I got you some skin balm for Christmas, Tanner!

[Tanner]

lol, thanks. my first thought upon reading the flavour was "god, i wish that fire had fucking killed me" though.

real time for tomorrow sounds good, i don't wanna ~influence~ your catching up.

[Lukewarm]

{snip}

I liked points 2 and 3 in imaginality's wall. Both of those are things that stood out to me as well.

4 is okay.

1, 3, 5, and 6 are kinda meh though.

I do want to see his associatives on Baltar though.

I think VP actually hoped he and I would be at Wall together so he could use my town-read on him to his benefit, but wasn't opposed to Gate when it came up since he reckoned Tanner's main D1 doubts about him were based on the theory he and I are partners, and he believed Tanner would see me as scummier individually than him once that was proven impossible.

This is probably the most interesting thing I saw though. Note to self to look back at Tanner's Day 1 read on Baltar

[Lukewarm]

Baltar - Can you tell me why you were against a you, imaginality, implosion mini game trio?

i unironically want imaginality and baltar at the same location.

That seems fine by me. I don't trust you to call an entire location, but if you want to test your theory in a 2/3, I don't think there is a lot of harm in that.

[Tanner]

was that a bit too dark? i dunno. anyway, i'm starting to think my "who would you ic if you were scum" is actually a pointless exercise because i feel like things like that are rarely decided by one person.

i'm gonna get a cup of coffee myself too, then i'll go through baltar/tanner/imaginality triple iso to finally check something that i've been meaning to check.

i'm not yet thinking about the order of the games, but for some reason i feel like i want to get the wall out of the way. the issue is that the wall overall feels the least... like, the people on the wall overall feel like they've given the least. which is annoying.

anyway, i'm gonna go for a walk, then some coffee, then i'm back.

[Lukewarm]

Oh you replaced Darby. Lol.

This is going to be easy mode

this is more the approach that i think that the scum team would be taking towards pav / compared to numberQ (again, even if I am wrong)

Can you explain your thoughts here a little more?

I kinda did just before this when I commented on NumberQ.

But basically, if you are scum, then the scum team decided to send you here accepting that you were going to lose. So there is no reason for them to go out on a limb for you and hurt their own chances. They are playing to win their own minigames, not to help you. But coming at you with that bravado confidence that you are scum feels in line with a scum who has already accepted that you are losing the keep, and wants to look good on your flip.

If I am wrong, and Ari is the scum, then they should also be pushing you as scum, because you getting the vote and voting for ari is a solid win con for them. Calling you town (like numberQ did just before) increases the odds that Ari ends up being the one who has to vote, and as long as you are out here calling me your number one suspect, that is a risk with no reward.

The extra bravado here makes more sense in scenario one, then scenario two. So probably ++scum on a scum!Pav flip but probably does not mean a whole lot on a scum!ari flip - but numberQ's +town points looks about the same regardless

[Tanner]

currently out on a walk, but i just had an idea. so note for myself and anyone else who wants - how did baltar go from "yeah ok me/implo/imag can go to the same location if you want" to "i don't trust you to call a location, but 2/3 is fine"?

[VP Baltar]

Baltar - Can you tell me why you were against a you, imaginality, implosion mini game trio?

i unironically want imaginality and baltar at the same location.

That seems fine by me. I don't trust you to call an entire location, but if you want to test your theory in a 2/3, I don't think there is a lot of harm in that.

Few reasons. I didn't think Tanner should be straight calling a location since he is a good player and if he was scum, I wasn't going to hand it to him like that. Also served as a bit of a reaction test to see how Tanner responded. Him being amenable to a slightly different version was protown

[Lukewarm]

I would think that the talk about leashing votes would be something scum would want to steer away from in most cases.

Why? There are definitely scenarios where this helps the scum team.

If Ari and I are both town, and he can get a scum partner in that last slot, us both agreeing to vote the partner, is a scum win.

If we are scum/town, then using this to force a second town into the keep helps them achieve the 1v1v1, and the new person swapping in is more likely to be the one who has to vote (see our current situation lol), and ups the scum win con in this game for a 33% to a 50% -- And from your pov, you should be thinking of it knowing that we are s/t, no?

[Lukewarm]

currently out on a walk, but i just had an idea. so note for myself and anyone else who wants - how did baltar go from "yeah ok me/implo/imag can go to the same location if you want" to "i don't trust you to call a location, but 2/3 is fine"?

I have only been asking him about this since it first happened lol (286, 451, 710)

[Lukewarm]

Few reasons. I didn't think Tanner should be straight calling a location since he is a good player and if he was scum, I wasn't going to hand it to him like that. Also served as a bit of a reaction test to see how Tanner responded. Him being amenable to a slightly different version was protown

So you thought scum!tanner might be making a suggestion that was 1 scum, 2 town to help achieve a 1-1-1 split?

[Lukewarm]

I think it is kind of crazy people are even considering I'm scum since I drove D1 to arrange D2 partially around Tanner's scum reads

Can you expound on this?

[Tanner]

Ari was actively trying to say I was scum for voting first, and he agreed with Ari (at the time only me and ari had voted in, so I doubt he thought ari was calling herself scum) - But immediately 180'ed to say that my vote was +town once he got push back on it. Which feels like one or both of those those thoughts were not genuine, and it does not feel like he was actually trying to sort me because he was not applying these thoughts to me, the actual first voter, he seemed to be talking about it in the abstract. Do not like.

this is something that i should be probably asking imaginality, since he made the same point, but there may be more value in asking luke - where's the pushback baltar got for it? i went back to reread the section, and it didn't seem to me that anyone was like, especially pressuring baltar for saying it.

[Lukewarm]

i'm not yet thinking about the order of the games, but for some reason i feel like i want to get the wall out of the way. the issue is that the wall overall feels the least... like, the people on the wall overall feel like they've given the least. which is annoying.

If I did not flip at the same time they did, I would want Ari and Pav to flip first. I think that it is the keep is the game that we are most likely to win, and would give us the most reads shake up if we are wrong.

But selfishly, I kind of like the idea of not going first, because I get flips to look at before my game resolves, and their flips can never help me lol

So, if I was anywhere other then the keep, I would want the keep to flip I think. Why are you leaning towards the wall first?

[VP Baltar]

Few reasons. I didn't think Tanner should be straight calling a location since he is a good player and if he was scum, I wasn't going to hand it to him like that. Also served as a bit of a reaction test to see how Tanner responded. Him being amenable to a slightly different version was protown

So you thought scum!tanner might be making a suggestion that was 1 scum, 2 town to help achieve a 1-1-1 split?

I don't know that I was thinking about it that hard. More just like, if Tanner is scum, they have a reason for that suggestion, so let me make a suggested change to the plan and see how he reacts. I also meant what I said early in the game that I can actually read Tanner reasonably well, so I didn't see harm for myself in being in the same game with him.

[VP Baltar]

I think it is kind of crazy people are even considering I'm scum since I drove D1 to arrange D2 partially around Tanner's scum reads

Can you expound on this?

Tanner wanted me and imaginality in the same game based on his scum reads, so that was the first building block I put in place when I suggested the sort.

[Tanner]

Why are you leaning towards the wall first?

bold of you to fucking assume i have thoughts behind the things i'm saying

maybe the fact that that game overall feels the scummiest? or maybe it's because it's the one with the lowest winrate, which i kinda want to get out of the way. i feel like i want either keep or wall out first, because i have this thought that baltar and imaginality trying to solve the games with each other's scumflip in mind, and then us resolving some of those games will somehow help me read them?

[Lukewarm]

Ari was actively trying to say I was scum for voting first, and he agreed with Ari (at the time only me and ari had voted in, so I doubt he thought ari was calling herself scum) - But immediately 180'ed to say that my vote was +town once he got push back on it. Which feels like one or both of those those thoughts were not genuine, and it does not feel like he was actually trying to sort me because he was not applying these thoughts to me, the actual first voter, he seemed to be talking about it in the abstract. Do not like.

this is something that i should be probably asking imaginality, since he made the same point, but there may be more value in asking luke - where's the pushback baltar got for it? i went back to reread the section, and it didn't seem to me that anyone was like, especially pressuring baltar for saying it.

Less push back, like pressure, and more like someone came back and told him he was wrong, and he promptly 180'd his stance. Which felt like he just didnt want to argue the point with implo.

But if he genuinely believed the first post he made, I don't see why he hard 180'd on it the way that he did. So, the next logical jump for me was that maybe he was just trying to be agreeable with ari/find a way to shade me in his first post - but did not want to commit to backing it up when someone presented the exact opposite argument.