Open 840 - Guardians of the Fortress [Game Over]

[VP Baltar]

If Tanner is town, then I want to follow his instincts because they are much better than my own in early game.

How did you decide that town!Tanner's instincts are much better than your own instincts in early game?

Haha, well the game we just finished had Datisi going after scum Ico and me getting chained to them so much D1 that it cost town the game. Plus Datisi gets killed as town on N1 in many games I'm in. I think that speaks for itself

[imaginality]

I proposed Toogeloo as the third in post 275 and then argued against DArby and for Tanner being the third in post 314. On the other hand VP initially proposed DArby as the third and only said 'maybe swap DArby for Tanner' so it's not like Tanner was his first pick for the third slot.

how is 314 arguing against darby being the third in you/vp?

This bit:

"That said, I kind of like the idea of you going to Gate with us because I think if you are town and get IC'ed you'd be a useful voice. And I think the same of VP and me, whereas DArby if town seems less useful if IC'ed."

[Aristeia]

Spoiler: super sekrit tanner read

you always make me so happy. wish you could be in the keep with me <3

[Aristeia]

Haha, well the game we just finished had Datisi going after scum Ico and me getting chained to them so much D1 that it cost town the game. Plus Datisi gets killed as town on N1 in many games I'm in. I think that speaks for itself

How does Datisi being able to read Ico very well translate to the rest of the players in this game?

[imaginality]

Since he knew we were S/T rather than S/S this really doesn't earn town points for him. It's not like he was obviously more likely to be voted out than me if he gets paired with me. If we were S/S then agreeing to have Tanner's scum reads in one slot is riskier knowing we'd have to swap one out but that's obviously not the case here.

What in the world are you even talking about. How is me agreeing to incorporate Tanner's idea an indication that I would know people's alignments? That makes no sense.

If you are scum (I know you are but this is me talking to the others who don't), you know we're S/T not S/S. So agreeing with Tanner's request (which was based on his view we were S/S) for us to go to the same location together doesn't deserve any town cred because there's no risk to you as scum agreeing to it. Whereas you painted it as "how can you even

think

I'm scum after I agreed to go where Tanner wanted D1?"

[Aristeia]

yea actually if anything it's kind of worse no?

wouldn't you rather 1v1 with someone that Tanner scumreads rather than someone that Tanner townreads? ~.~

Or do you just mean you wouldn't go anywhere near tanner if you were mafia?

[VP Baltar]

Haha, well the game we just finished had Datisi going after scum Ico and me getting chained to them so much D1 that it cost town the game. Plus Datisi gets killed as town on N1 in many games I'm in. I think that speaks for itself

How does Datisi being able to read Ico very well translate to the rest of the players in this game?

I'm saying datisi is better at scumhunting D1 than me and I am frequently wrong. It's not particular to Ico (though of course they have their own reputation).

[Tanner]

If Tanner is town, then I want to follow his instincts because they are much better than my own in early game.

wait

this is in relation that i wanted you and imaginality at the same place because i thought you two were scumbuddies, no?

why would you go "i was gonna follow tanner there bc his early game reads are better than mine" when my early game read was that you're scum with imaginality?

[VP Baltar]

Or do you just mean you wouldn't go anywhere near tanner if you were mafia?

Tanner scum reads me often, even though I think I've only ever been scum with them once before (maybe twice, cant remember)? Most times, Tanner comes around to read me properly, but not always. If I'm scum, that seems like a bad gamble for me. Even as town, it is risky, but I do think I have consistently been able to read Datisi town in games we have had together, so that's the upside for me. If I feel like I can consistently get an accurate town read on datisi and they end up being town this game, that's an easier sub game for me.

[VP Baltar]

why would you go "i was gonna follow tanner there bc his early game reads are better than mine" when my early game read was that you're scum with imaginality?

Well I know I'm not scum, but that doesn't mean you're not right about imaginality. Much to Ari's disappointment, I don't see you as perfect. Just better than me.

[Tanner]

mmm
okay, i'll think about that tomorrow

how far are you in catching up?

[VP Baltar]

mmm
okay, i'll think about that tomorrow

how far are you in catching up?

Not far yet, but I will get it done today. At the grocery store at the moment. But after lunch I'll have time to just read.

[implosion]

a decent amount of what's happening in this game is starting to make my eyes glaze over.

I'm okay doing wall first if Tanner wants it first.

The point on VP/imaginality both talking about them + DArby is interesting. Where I'm at I definitely would call Ari scum before Luke though. I definitely don't think it's out of the question that Pav is town, certainly. Luke scum would just surprise me a lot. Ari and Pav scum would both surprise me very little.

[Aristeia]

what do you want to do on the wall?

[Tanner]

implo, off the top of my head i cannot remember any of your reads or reasoning you gave for them. maybe i'm distracted, maybe i'm bad at this game. but like, it's not a point in your favour.

[Aristeia]

I'm curious what Tanner thinks because I feel like I'm sort of starting to tunnel mentally on a gamestate where the scumteam is Toog/imaginality/??. Obviously I'm not locking into that or anything and I want to hear more from Toog. I'm mostly just trying to catch myself before committing more strongly to opinions than they have merit.

I think this is where he's currently at with a preference for Luke being voted at Keep.

Correct me if I'm wrong.

[Aristeia]

His reason for VPB was the "dumbtell"

His reason for Luke is because Luke is playing a fantastic game.

He made some vague snipey comments at Toogeloo about shading NQ.

[Aristeia]

Actually think it might make sense to resolve Wall first; I don't think implo is expecting to distance or cares about distancing if he's scum here.

[Toogeloo]

So...

I have severe sinusitis and mild pneumonia. I have a couple medications to take for both.

I'm officially requesting replacement in all my commitments.

[Pavowski]

Okay, got my laptop.

So, I see what you are saying, but it is hard to accept just based on my own reads. Scum Ari would have to be the most suicidal scum player ever, offering to vote you, then offering to vote me, then saying they wanted the vote, and then urging you to tell her who to vote. That last one is probably the strongest reason to think that she is town because you can argue that all the others are just talk. But if you, at any point, tell her that she should vote, that is a hard one to walk back from, so urging you to do that is wild.

So, just being up front, I am approaching this idea looking for the counter argument. Devil's advocate if you will.

-----

So lets play the game of, if darby were scum, would the scum of baltar/imaginiality suggest darby come to the same location as them.

Keep is locked in me+Ari, both others are open.

So, the options are:
-suggest Darby goes to the keep
-suggest Darby goes to the same location as them
-suggest Darby goes to the opposite location as them.

I don't know that there was ever a good argument to send Darby to the keep at the time, so I kinda want to throw that option away.

Having Scum!Darby go to the same location as them forces a 2-1-0 split. Sending Scum!Darby to the opposite location also forces a 2-1-0 split, unless they think that they can get their other partner into the keep.

So, could Scum!Toog or Scum!numberQ get into the keep, and would they want to? I don't think that scum!numberQ could have gotten themselves into the keep. Scum!Toog probably could have. So, if scum were prioritizing a 1-1-1 split in this scenario, then maybe this points to scum!numberQ.

But I also don't see Toog or numberQ winning the keep. So even if they get one of them there, then I think they end up swappng them out for Darby anyways?

If on the other hand, scum had already accepted a 2-1-0 split, then I don't think they care where DArby goes at that point? He goes to the wall, they swap him with implo to decide the wall, if he goes to the gate, they swap him with implo and make implo the IC.

-----

So, I think that your point is valid, if the scum team was prioritizing a 1-1-1 split, but falls apart if they had accepted a 2-1-0 split.

It does however even further clear implo I think? If implo is scum, then I think that they must have achieved a 1-1-1 split. I don't think that they would have accidentally achieved that, and if they were aiming for that, then I don't think they would have been out making suggestions that would have taken it away.

So, my conclusion is that them both suggesting DArby could go to either place implies that they accepted a 2-1-0 split and that implo is town.

The problem with this (and I know, you prefaced it with "if DArby scum") is that Darby/I are not scum, and scum locked in the keep early. Since I know this, I go back and look at:

I do want to think about the order people went in for a bit..


Luke[K] -> Ari[K] -> VPB[G] -> Tooge[W] -> NQ[W] -> Imag[G] -> Implo[K] -> Tanner[G] -> Pavo[W]

Scum!Ari grabbing slot #2 on the keep ensures scum doesn't lose immediately on d1, and if I accept Luke's argument about quick-snagging the first slot, this could make perfect sense.

[Pavowski]

So...

I have severe sinusitis and mild pneumonia. I have a couple medications to take for both.

I'm officially requesting replacement in all my commitments.

Ouch. Feel better, panda.

[Prism]

Toogeloo will be replaced. I will adjust the deadline after finding a replacement.

[Aristeia]

I hope you feel better soon Tooges ~!

[Aristeia]

Scum!Ari grabbing slot #2 on the keep ensures scum doesn't lose immediately on d1, and if I accept Luke's argument about quick-snagging the first slot, this could make perfect sense.

mhmm

Do you think Luke is out of his scum~range?

[implosion]

I've been pretty clear with my reads, I think, Tanner. And I've given reasoning for the ones at Wall. I'm happy to justify why I think Luke is so town if you want, and am happy to wax about VP and imaginality but I honestly doubt I can really reasonably read the two of them better than 50/50.