Open 840 - Guardians of the Fortress [Game Over]

[Pavowski]

Scum!Ari grabbing slot #2 on the keep ensures scum doesn't lose immediately on d1, and if I accept Luke's argument about quick-snagging the first slot, this could make perfect sense.

mhmm

Do you think Luke is out of his scum~range?

Absolutely not

[Aristeia]

Why does scum!Luke bring you into the Keep?

[Pavowski]

Why does scum!Luke bring you into the Keep?

I am often scumread at least a bit just as a baseline (except maybe for Luke himself, lol). Here I'm repping in without early game shenanigans to win me any points, and more than that, I'm repping into a slot generally scumread. I figure he figures I'm less likely to win a vote from you. (If he's scum.)

[Aristeia]

ok but Luke's already fairly strongly townread and I don't think he'd have problems winning keep against someone else either?

Why not just leave you to be easy pickings at the Wall instead?

If anything you are more familiar with Luke's play than anyone else here and you are less likely to be fooled by him into voting for him....

[Pavowski]

ok but Luke's already fairly strongly townread and I don't think he'd have problems winning keep against someone else either?

Why not just leave you to be easy pickings at the Wall instead?

If anything you are more familiar with Luke's play than anyone else here and you are less likely to be fooled by him into voting for him....

There is also the possibility that Implo is scum, and I (or you) *had* to be moved.

[Pavowski]

ok but Luke's already fairly strongly townread and I don't think he'd have problems winning keep against someone else either?

Why not just leave you to be easy pickings at the Wall instead?

If anything you are more familiar with Luke's play than anyone else here and you are less likely to be fooled by him into voting for him....

There is also the possibility that Implo is scum, and I (or you) *had* to be moved.

I haven't explored this in the depth it deserves yet, I do need to examine that mini closer

[Aristeia]

Ok but even if Implosion is scum, why would Luke switch Implosion out for you instead of Tooges or NumberQ?

Don't you think it's much easier for Luke to convince either Tooges/NumberQ to vote for Luke rather than you just from how much familiarity you two have with each other?

As a bonus it would leave your own limbaity slot in Wall where you are more likely to be mis-limmed...

[Lukewarm]

Actually, in that scenario, I could have swapped myself with Pav. left implo to try and win the wall, and then I would have been in a pretty good spot win in a luke v numberq v toog Wall minigame

[Lukewarm]

I proposed Toogeloo as the third in post 275 and then argued against DArby and for Tanner being the third in post 314. On the other hand VP initially proposed DArby as the third and only said 'maybe swap DArby for Tanner' so it's not like Tanner was his first pick for the third slot.

how is 314 arguing against darby being the third in you/vp?

There is an interesting distinction between the two.

Baltar was okay with having you or Darby with him at either location.

Imaginaliy seemed to want you at the gate and Darby at the wall, and didn't care which him and baltar were at.

Thought on this, and I think it is +town for imaginality

Why would scum imaginality's opinion on who the third person in his minigame was change depending on if it was the wall vs the gate here - but I can totally see the town motivation behind not wanting the DArby slot made into the IC, but being okay with Tanner being made into the IC.

[Pavowski]

Ok but even if Implosion is scum, why would Luke switch Implosion out for you instead of Tooges or NumberQ?

Don't you think it's much easier for Luke to convince either Tooges/NumberQ to vote for Luke rather than you just from how much familiarity you two have with each other?

As a bonus it would leave your own limbaity slot in Wall where you are more likely to be mis-limmed...

I wouldn't agree, necessarily. I can be convinced to townread Luke. (As a corollary I'm sure he can be convinced to townread me, though maybe not in this game, lol.)

[Lukewarm]

So...

I have severe sinusitis and mild pneumonia. I have a couple medications to take for both.

I'm officially requesting replacement in all my commitments.

Aww, feel better man

[Pavowski]

Actually, in that scenario, I could have swapped myself with Pav. left implo to try and win the wall, and then I would have been in a pretty good spot win in a luke v numberq v toog Wall minigame

This is actually a good point. Luke and I have history, but he knows I be posting and talking for better or worse

[VP Baltar]

i think gate should resolve either second or last

if implo or lukewarm flip scum it makes it much less likely imo that imaginality is scum here

What made you say this Ari?

I definitely don't agree with resolving the keep (lowest odds of winning) earlier when the other two games clearly have better odds of town winning.

[VP Baltar]

is this dumb tell too stupid to be a real dumb tell

then again it is vp baltar

lol

[Lukewarm]

i think gate should resolve either second or last

if implo or lukewarm flip scum it makes it much less likely imo that imaginality is scum here

What made you say this Ari?

I definitely don't agree with resolving the keep (lowest odds of winning) earlier when the other two games clearly have better odds of town winning.

What? At base

Keep is a 66% win
Gate is a 50% win
Wall is a 33% win

Did you mean to say that the wall should not go first? Or are you saying that you think we are gonna lose the keep?

[VP Baltar]

i think gate should resolve either second or last

if implo or lukewarm flip scum it makes it much less likely imo that imaginality is scum here

Can you explain this to me?

I think Baltar is a much stronger 1v1er than Imaginality

, it feels like a bit of a mismatch to put him at Gate, I think you/implo would have much better odds of winning the 1v1 there.

Have we played together before?

[VP Baltar]

Did you mean to say that the wall should not go first? Or are you saying that you think we are gonna lose the keep?

Yes, I'm saying the wall should probably be the last thing we resolve so we have the most information. Ari was suggesting it should go earlier and the gate should go last...which does not make sense.

[VP Baltar]

There's so much pointless mech talk in this game.. fucking kill me.

[Lukewarm]

Ah. You said keep, not wall in that post. Which confused me

[Lukewarm]

So you think we should go keep -> gate -> wall

[VP Baltar]

Regardless of all of this, one thing I am interested in is that VP Baltar was the first one to suggest me as the third person in Keep. I think that's fairly + town for him if it turns out that Keep was all-town pre-swap. Which is another reason to resolve Gate later.

While this makes sense from your perspective, I'm not quite sure how this is supposed to make sense for everyone else.

[VP Baltar]

So you think we should go keep -> gate -> wall

Unless Tanner feels like he has a strong read, that makes sense on sheer stats.

Personally, I think Tanner should be able to town read me easily this game, in which case we could knock out our game first. But that's going to be Tanner's call after we chat I suppose.

[Pavowski]

On the final game, I reviewed the ISOs.

I've seen Q be more involved and more vocal, but their interactions seem generally genuine and their willingness to re-evaluate reads gives me slight townvibes. (Earlier scumread was based on skimming and meta comparing the amount of posts, before Luke jumps all up on my junk)
Implo has a couple of posts that give me the creeps regarding Luke early (giving some decent Luke/Implo equity) but sounds reasonably earnest and open, and I think I have to keep leaning towny there
Then there's Toog who .... sounds like Toog.

Toog's not a bad guess for scum there, but it feels too easy. I just don't have a great reason to townread the slot (though I don't have powerful reasons to scumread there, either). But Toog's doing something that nobody else seems to be doing (or at least isn't doing loudly): scumreading Ari at the keep. That seems a bit out there when I'm an easy target for a scumread. Doesn't seem the sort of thing scum's going to go out on a limb to do.
Still, gth, I'd probably vote Toog here absent any other flips.

tl;dr, I have no clue what to make of the wall and basically nothing would surprise me in this one.

There, I think I've done my civic duty and voiced thoughts on all three games.

[Pavowski]

There's so much pointless mech talk in this game.. fucking kill me.

seconded

[Pavowski]

@Luke thoughts on 819?