Open 840 - Guardians of the Fortress [Game Over]

[implosion]

Also if Lukewarm is scum, Implosion switching out of Keep makes very little sense with how much Implosion was townreading Lukewarm.

I think I kept the strength of my Luke townread at least somewhat close to my chest.

[implosion]

Like it's not just one of his beliefs that has to be wrong for him to react negatively to my offer,

I wasn't reacting to the possibility of the offer happening. You have no power to make it happen and I don't think I'd be "afraid" of it if I were scum. I was reacting to seeming faulty logic behind it.

he has to be wrong on both his strongest townread AND his strongest scumread in the keep for it to blow up in his face and with how confidently he stated his reads in pushing for Luke over me I just don't see how he is suddenly backpedaling and making excuses.

One, I don't see how anything I'm doing can accurately be described as either backpedaling or making excuses.
Two, "both his strongest townread and his strongest scumread" there are only three possible states the Keep can be in. Being wrong about who the scum is is not being wrong about two different things, it's being wrong about one thing. I don't even know why this matters. Like I have very much lost the thread of the conversation here.

[implosion]

Like, I don't understand why you think I should think you saying "I'll vote Luke if Tanner tells me to" should mean anything. It's vapid, of course it's vapid, this is literally a game about lying :\. this is not you "making a promise" that you would then get to have your preferred choice of what happens in the other locations if it goes wrong, it's you saying "i will do the thing that i am obligated to do if i'm town if i'm told that i have to do it" like. duh???????

[Aristeia]

Also if Lukewarm is scum, Implosion switching out of Keep makes very little sense with how much Implosion was townreading Lukewarm.

I think I kept the strength of my Luke townread at least somewhat close to my chest.

again this does not matter unless Luke flips scum so there is no motivation for you to argue this point with me.

[implosion]

Also if Lukewarm is scum, Implosion switching out of Keep makes very little sense with how much Implosion was townreading Lukewarm.

I think I kept the strength of my Luke townread at least somewhat close to my chest.

again this does not matter unless Luke flips scum so there is no motivation for you to argue this point with me.

there is motivation because you said a thing that is false and i wanted to point that out

[Aristeia]

Like, I don't understand why you think I should think you saying "I'll vote Luke if Tanner tells me to" should mean anything. It's vapid, of course it's vapid, this is literally a game about lying :\. this is not you "making a promise" that you would then get to have your preferred choice of what happens in the other locations if it goes wrong, it's you saying "i will do the thing that i am obligated to do if i'm town if i'm told that i have to do it" like. duh???????

It creates a memory between me and him that he will think about if Luke flips red and it will give him the strength to kill the people I want him to kill in that scenario.

[Aristeia]

there is motivation because you said a thing that is false and i wanted to point that out

It only applies if Luke flips red which shouldn't really be something you are worried about.

[Aristeia]

I did not "fire back" with this in the way you're describing. Scum having reason to bus, and your alignment, were two completely different parts of the discussion. Don't conflate them.

fire back, respond, say, it doesn't really matter.

[Aristeia]

You saying "I want implo to die if Luke flips scum" in that context, to me, read as you saying that if Luke flips scum it would be reason to think I'm scum based on pushing him to be voted when I think that simply isn't how this setup works, especially given that Tanner's current preference was to resolve wall before keep. Correlating us in that way mathematically implies that you'd think Luke would be more likely to be scum (at least a little bit) if I flipped scum, so... you see the problem here, hopefully, given that Wall is probably being voted first.

I don't understand why you react so strongly if you think Luke is definitely green and I'm definitely red.

[implosion]

there is motivation because you said a thing that is false and i wanted to point that out

It only applies if Luke flips red which shouldn't really be something you are worried about.

you: "if lukewarm flips scum, then my reads will change in ways x y and z, and also ducks are mammals"
me: "ducks are birds"
you: "i said that was contingent on luke being scum, why do you care about that"

:X

[implosion]

this is just, so, incredibly, vapid. this whole page.

[Aristeia]

And regarding your stated willingness to vote Luke: words are not actions. And it's not like you have any recourse if you're scum and Tanner tells you to vote Luke.

What's even your point here?

If you're right and I'm scum you have nothing to worry about.

[implosion]

i feel like i've traveled to some alternate dimension where this is supposed to matter in literally any meaningful way.

What are your reasons for imag town over VP?

[Aristeia]

this is just, so, incredibly, vapid. this whole page.

Yea I agree.

It would've been townier if you just said "sure" instead of reacting the way you have but *shrug*

[Aristeia]

i feel like i've traveled to some alternate dimension where this is supposed to matter in literally any meaningful way.

What are your reasons for imag town over VP?

Why do you even care if you think I'm mafia?

[implosion]

I'm going to not answer any other questions on this thread we've been going down for the past page unless anyone else explicitly says they want to hear my answers.

i feel like i've traveled to some alternate dimension where this is supposed to matter in literally any meaningful way.

What are your reasons for imag town over VP?

Why do you even care if you think I'm mafia?

contrary to popular belief, you actually are still allowed to be made a listmod if you've gotten any reads wrong before in any mafia games! I know, it's not common knowledge.

[implosion]

And also, I care because I'm really unsure about Gate and want to hear reasons in favor of the other side.

[Aristeia]

there is motivation because you said a thing that is false and i wanted to point that out

It only applies if Luke flips red which shouldn't really be something you are worried about.

you: "if lukewarm flips scum, then my reads will change in ways x y and z, and also ducks are mammals"
me: "ducks are birds"
you: "i said that was contingent on luke being scum, why do you care about that"

:X

this is just absurd

[Aristeia]

contrary to popular belief, you actually are still allowed to be made a listmod if you've gotten any reads wrong before in any mafia games! I know, it's not common knowledge.

this is also absurd.

[implosion]

Care to answer the question? Why imag town over VP?

[implosion]

And just for unambiguity on that last one: I might be wrong on you. It's happened before, it'll happen again. And I'm more confident on Luke being town than I am on you being scum. It's something like you have 55% scum equity, Pav has 40%, Luke has 5%. Those numbers are nowhere near exact but you get the idea (probably if I was betting money on these I'd put Luke's odds of scum at much higher than 5% just because I don't really trust my ability to read people accurately in mafia games in general nearly that highly)

[Aristeia]

In the context of Luke/Implo flipping scum:

The things you are townreading him for seem trivially easy to fake.

Imag is a weaker 1v1 player than VPB

VPB loves 1v1s.

I don't think Imag-Scum goes to 1v1 if Luke/Implo are scum with him because Luke/Implo are both stronger 1v1 players than Imag, I think Imag ends up on the Wall instead.

In the context of Luke being scum:

Luke said something earlier in the day about Imag only being confirmed town to VPBaltar, Tanner noted it as a skip and Luke laughed it off. If Luke does flip scum this does feel like more likely to be a slip.

In the context of no flips:

Imag's play is more transparent than VPB in that his posts do not need further explanation.

Imag not hesitating to vote skews townie to me, VPB "forgetting" to do it feels like scum who is awkward and unsure of the "right" time to do something.

Imag's scum game is somewhat lacking, I've read his scum play and it feels kind of stiff? I think he is somewhat out of scumrange here.

As for VPB I don't like the way he answered questions and he's demanding to be townread for things that don't make sense to me and he's not explaining further.

He has the time to pop in and take potshots at me but not the time to answer questions directed towards him.

[Aristeia]

And just for unambiguity on that last one: I might be wrong on you. It's happened before, it'll happen again. And I'm more confident on Luke being town than I am on you being scum. It's something like you have 55% scum equity, Pav has 40%, Luke has 5%. Those numbers are nowhere near exact but you get the idea (probably if I was betting money on these I'd put Luke's odds of scum at much higher than 5% just because I don't really trust my ability to read people accurately in mafia games in general nearly that highly)

It's not just that you are wrong on me that makes me think you are scum.

I don't like how you said I ask questions that are "leading" and that do not help me figure out the game.

I think my questions are quite clear in exactly what I am trying to figure out.

When I ask you which of my questions are "leading" you don't seem to have a response.

[implosion]

And just for unambiguity on that last one: I might be wrong on you. It's happened before, it'll happen again. And I'm more confident on Luke being town than I am on you being scum. It's something like you have 55% scum equity, Pav has 40%, Luke has 5%. Those numbers are nowhere near exact but you get the idea (probably if I was betting money on these I'd put Luke's odds of scum at much higher than 5% just because I don't really trust my ability to read people accurately in mafia games in general nearly that highly)

It's not just that you are wrong on me that makes me think you are scum.

I don't like how you said I ask questions that are "leading" and that do not help me figure out the game.

I think my questions are quite clear in exactly what I am trying to figure out.

When I ask you which of my questions are "leading" you don't seem to have a response.

I never saw you ask, if you did and I missed it then apologies. The reason I called them leading was that you've asked so, so many of them, but never really seemed to follow up or give original analysis based on answers as far as I could tell. Looking loosely backward through your ISO

869 858 831 826 823 790

these are all in the past 12 hours and it's not even all of them in the past 12 hours, you just ask so many questions that it gives me a vibe of you wanting to look like you're thinking about things, rather than actually having a real set of reads that you're working on creating or verifying. It's frankly very tough to determine the degree to which you're actually following through on all of them and to assess whether your view of the gamestate is being swayed by answers to them (as it should be if you're town, that's the point of asking questions) since you have such a high ratio of asking questions to stating opinions.

[implosion]

Imag's play is more transparent than VPB in that his posts do not need further explanation.

Imag not hesitating to vote skews townie to me, VPB "forgetting" to do it feels like scum who is awkward and unsure of the "right" time to do something.

Imag's scum game is somewhat lacking, I've read his scum play and it feels kind of stiff? I think he is somewhat out of scumrange here.

As for VPB I don't like the way he answered questions and he's demanding to be townread for things that don't make sense to me and he's not explaining further.

He has the time to pop in and take potshots at me but not the time to answer questions directed towards him.

The first two lines here I don't really buy as being alignment indicative rather than playstyle.

The third of these is probably the one that I'd potentially find convincing. I do think if imag is a bad scum player then that would lend credence to him being town here bc he isn't playing badly by any means. I just have a hard time gleaning much meaningful from his play.

The fourth thing here I actually view as kind of townish for VP. I think his sort of bravado has felt authentic or at least not inauthentic.