Open 840 - Guardians of the Fortress [Game Over]

[Tanner]

Ari and imaginality are kind of both poking around me and trying to suggest strats for the Keep that put Ari in a position of power.

can you give an example of what you mean by this?

[Tanner]

but if Luke is scum I want Implosion/VPB to die.

was this ever explained *why* you thought so?

[VP Baltar]

Ari and imaginality are kind of both poking around me and trying to suggest strats for the Keep that put Ari in a position of power.

can you give an example of what you mean by this?

Yes. When I get to a computer today, I will expound on this.

[Lukewarm]

Then when I say "hey I'll vote Lukewarm right now if Tanner says yes but I want assurances that he/vpb die if Lukewarm flips scum"

He fires back with an excuse about how scum want to bus and how he is willing to resolve first.

I just don't see why that would be his reaction if he actually believes that I'm mafia here or if he actually believes Lukewarm is town.

From my pov, this is a moot issue, obviously, but do you realize that from Town!Implo's pov you are asking if he is willing to bet the entire game on his read of me? Because that is what your bargain means.

"If implo's read on Luke is wrong (and scum win the keep), then I want it agreed that Implo is the vote in the Wall (which would give scum a second win from town implo's pov)"

I remember in the FGO game I played in [not sure if anyone is familiar with these games, but day 1 town votes for someone to be made into an IC, bulletproof, and given another PR, but if it hit scum the entire scum team got buffed] I was very vocal on who I thought was the person we should make "town leader," and someone else asked if I was willing to agree that if I was wrong, that I would promptly eliminated Day 2. And they thought it was weird that I refused that bargain. Like, why would I agree to make the town lose even more if I am wrong on my read, and town already started losing. Luckily, my suggestion on who to make town leader was correct, so that did not turn into an issue day 2.

Anyways, Implo's reaction to this feels about the same as my own reaction in that scenario.

[Lukewarm]

Then when I say "hey I'll vote Lukewarm right now if Tanner says yes but I want assurances that he/vpb die if Lukewarm flips scum"

He fires back with an excuse about how scum want to bus and how he is willing to resolve first.

I just don't see why that would be his reaction if he actually believes that I'm mafia here or if he actually believes Lukewarm is town.

From my pov, this is a moot issue, obviously, but do you realize that from Town!Implo's pov you are asking if he is willing to bet the entire game on his read of me? Because that is what your bargain means.

"If implo's read on Luke is wrong (and scum win the keep), then I want it agreed that Implo is the vote in the Wall (which would give scum a second win from town implo's pov)"

I remember in the FGO game I played in [not sure if anyone is familiar with these games, but day 1 town votes for someone to be made into an IC, bulletproof, and given another PR, but if it hit scum the entire scum team got buffed] I was very vocal on who I thought was the person we should make "town leader," and someone else asked if I was willing to agree that if I was wrong, that I would promptly eliminated Day 2. And they thought it was weird that I refused that bargain. Like, why would I agree to make the town lose even more if I am wrong on my read, and town already started losing. Luckily, my suggestion on who to make town leader was correct, so that did not turn into an issue day 2.

Anyways, Implo's reaction to this feels about the same as my own reaction in that scenario.

[Lukewarm]

Uh, Ari's and implo's 1v1 went on for a while. I am not sure that I really saw much convincing from either side to sway my read on the other, so my gut reaction is a TvT fight.

Implo seems to be scum reading ari for what looks like style clashes imo. And Ari openly says that she scum reads Toog more then implo.

[Tanner]

I am not sure if it's been said in thread but I think there is scum equity between VP/Ari. I'm not done reading the VP iso but I feel much more murky on it than I did on imaginality's.

what made you think vp/ari have scum equity?

[Lukewarm]

I do agree with Ari that asking Baltar questions is frustrating.

I was asking him questions and not getting responses, and when I do get responses they don't make a ton of sense to me, and when I asked follow up questions I was told that he just did not think about it that hard....

Which, is frustrating. If he is town, that certainly does not help me. If he is scum, that kinda shuts down the line of questioning.

I keep thinking I should meta read him to see if that is something I see in his other games, but also then talk myself out of doing meta reading

[Lukewarm]

Tanner, do you have any questions for me? I'll be around for the next little bit

[Tanner]

I was asking him questions and not getting responses, and when I do get responses they don't make a ton of sense to me, and when I asked follow up questions I was told that he just did not think about it that hard....

can you link me examples of this happening, especially the latter?

and i'm thinking. who are you currently leaning on being scum on your location?

[Lukewarm]

see Luke calling me his top townread in that other newbie game we were both in, where I don't think I played particularly well at all

That very well may have been because I was so incredibly tunneled on Val that game lmao

[Lukewarm]

can you link me examples of this happening, especially the latter?

and i'm thinking. who are you currently leaning on being scum on your location?

Yeah, let me find em

--

Pav

[Lukewarm]

can you link me examples of this happening, especially the latter?

I asked him about him agreeing to your baltar+imaginality+1 sort in 286. Brought it up again in 451 because it had not been answered. Asked again in 710 because it had not been answered. -- Finally got an answer in 714

I did not understand it, so I started following up with 717, he responded in 721 with "I don't know that I was thinking about it that hard..." -

There was more, not just that, but I still was not all that satisfied with his answer, but digging more felt pointless since "he wasnt thinking about it that hard"

----

He started calling him self obv town for following your reads day 1, and I asked him about it in 718 - Ari kinda picked up this torch, and I have just been watching to see if she can get answers from him. And every question she has asked him seems about what I would want to ask, and he has been really obtuse with his answers there. Second hand frustration on this one.

----

I had a question directed to him in 884, yet to get a response.

[Lukewarm]

do you remember what the idea was behind this post?

I actually don't? It doesn't seem to make sense since they are all xlos?

And, I was not the one asking this question, but...

[Tanner]

what do you think about baltar and imaginality's cases on who the other's partners are? and in general what they've posted against each other today?

[Lukewarm]

@Ari - here is the short of it: I incorporated the desires of a now confirmed town player as the fundamental building block of how I sorted. Additionally, Tanner has a tendency to scum read me in almost every game we play, at least for a little while. Yet, I added Tanner to my own game, knowing that would be the case. There is no legitimate reason I would do any of that as scum...and I'd actually call that poor play on my part if I was scum. It's so obvtown from my perspective, that I think it is incredibly annoying I'm having to repeat it again.

Baltar, even if you think that this is obvtown from your perspective (lol). It is not obvtown from mine.

Tanner suggested you+imaginality, and you didn't fight it.
Why would that be an obvtown move to make? It is now mechanically confirmed that that suggestion is one scum + one townie. Why would a scum player fight against it, and possibly end up in the same game as their buddy?

Tanner scum read you, but he also scum read imaginality harder imo. -- Why would a scum player fight against this arrangement?

Who do you think that scum!Baltar would want in the Gate with him and imaginality over Tanner? The other options would have been Darby, toog, numberq, and implosion. 1-2 of these names are mechanically proven to be scum. Other then implosion, all three of these are miselim bait if they are town.

Would scum!Baltar really want to place himself at the gate with him + imaginality + miselim bait, and be foreced to IC either imaginality or miselim bait over Tanner?

-----

Most of this all applies to imaginality as well, so this is not even a point for or against you. He was also amiable to the baltar+imaginality+tanner at the gate suggestion.

But, you keep repeating that this makes you obvtown, and I just don't see it.

[Lukewarm]

what do you think about baltar and imaginality's cases on who the other's partners are? and in general what they've posted against each other today?

It is hard to take either case against the other to seriously, because of the mech situation this game. They are either scum making a fake case or town who will see every single thing the other does as scummy because they are confirmed scum

Imaginality seems to fit the later a bit better imo, because he does seem to be calling baltar scum for every single thing that baltar does, even things that I look at and does not seem alignment indicative at all.

If I had to vote right this second in the Gate, I would probably vote Baltar? But I don't know how confident I am on the gate. Because you said that you did not want the gate to go first, I have kinda had it in my head that that is a game that gets to be properly solved after flips.

[Tanner]

i was hoping you'd focus more on the first part of the question. namely, 859 and 971.

[VP Baltar]

he responded in 721 with "I don't know that I was thinking about it that hard..." -

There's significantly more to that response than "I didn't think that hard ".

And what I'm saying is that you're way overthinking in your proposed explanation.

[VP Baltar]

Would scum!Baltar really want to place himself at the gate with him + imaginality + miselim bait, and be foreced to IC either imaginality or miselim bait over Tanner?

Yeah, that scenario sounds way easier. I would just IC imaginality and then get the easier player tossed. How is that not a way easier scenario than going into a situation with someone who regularly grills me in games where I am town?

[Pavowski]

I am not sure if it's been said in thread but I think there is scum equity between VP/Ari. I'm not done reading the VP iso but I feel much more murky on it than I did on imaginality's.

what made you think vp/ari have scum equity?

I think maybe I could go to Keep with you, it would be a fun date <3

Where would you like me to go?

if we're playing seriously - i'd want you to go to gate if you're town. i want you to be town, but it's obviously too early to tell.

gosh you can't tell I am town already?

Performative

There were one or two interactions that felt a little off, but specifically it was this call-out, a one-word post from VP that felt out of character to me.

I would say that their back-and-forth last night throws some cold water on that theory. I wouldn't at this point say s/s.

[Lukewarm]

he responded in 721 with "I don't know that I was thinking about it that hard..." -

There's significantly more to that response than "I didn't think that hard ".

And what I'm saying is that you're way overthinking in your proposed explanation.

My very next line was that there was more to that in your answer, but that part is what made me feel like it was pointless to continue the line of questioning even though I still was not satisfied with you answer

[VP Baltar]

Imaginality seems to fit the later a bit better imo, because he does seem to be calling baltar scum for every single thing that baltar does, even things that I look at and does not seem alignment indicative at all.

This should be a huge alarm bell for you then. The points I'm making are not reaching and trying to pull together any little thing to mud sling at him.

I'm not even super interested in making a giant case about him because it's kind of pointless. This is why I'm saying people need to look at actual actions in the game and who is trying to effectively solve. Motive is the guiding light here.

Imaginality is piles of words that go nowhere, while I'm over here trying to present what I think is a very coherent theory of the game while pointing to my actions as clearly town.

[VP Baltar]

Tanner, I thought you wanted to jam on some stuff? I'm still around

[Lukewarm]

i was hoping you'd focus more on the first part of the question. namely, 859 and 971.

I guess I am not sure if you are talking about their points on each other, or their assosiatives then?

Like I said, I take their cases against each other with a grain of salt.
859 case against imaginality feels forced, but again it has that feel of "is this bad because its forced, or because he is mech confirmed in his eyes"

Obviously he has to disagree on imaginality's take on the gate. He then says that the the analysis of the others is weak, even though imaginality lead in saying that he had not looked at the other games as closely yet.


971 does not have a VP case in it, it is an assosiative post - But I did really like imaginality's associative points in here. I found myself nodding along to all of it, and the final conclusion matched about my own reads. Ari town, pav scum in the keep. Implo town at the wall.

One thing that I did just noticed looking at them side by side is that Baltar's cases in the keep and the gate are not associative based. More "here is a case on this person individually"