Open 840 - Guardians of the Fortress [Game Over]

[Aristeia]

There's zero point in me reading a bunch of scum BS.

He's trying to kill you with pre-flips from Keep and you don't think that's relevant what type of pre-flips he's predicting to come?

[Aristeia]

the arrogance is unbelievably you

[Aristeia]

I think we should flip the gate first maybe since it is the most discussed and my reads will bear fruit when my alignment is public

Interesting to see this post just a few posts after I remind Tanner that flipping the Keep first would show if DArby/Pav is town which would paint VP in considerably worse light.

He's relying on Darby/Pav flipping town to paint you in a worse light.

And me flipping scum would make you look really good.

So if he wants Keep to flip first, he's banking on Me/Pavo both being town in Keep.

[imaginality]

I might not always be as concise as I could be but if you look at my posts about VP I've:

- pointed out where he's overstated his case for him being town (the 'I'm obvtown because I did what Tanner wanted with my groupings' stuff)
- pointed out contradictions in his argument that others overlooked (where he said having a low content player with us rather than Tanner would have been way easier as scum, when a low content player was actually exactly who he first suggested to bring with us)
- pointed out where his interactions with him are revealing (Ari town, implo town)
- pointed out anti-town actions he's pushed for (rushing the Gate vote at the start of the day would be anti-town even if he were town)
- pointed out that his reads this game haven't been as loose as he claims he is as town
- pointed out that flipping Keep will help if people (Tanner) wants more data before deciding

Sure, to him it's all BS, because we're 1v1 and that's what he'd say as town. But I think the above points and others are coming together to make a coherent case.

And as I've said, if I had a coherent case on him at the start of today, he wouldn't have chosen to 1v1 me.

So yeah, it took a few posts for me to make sense of it all. But I feel like at this point, if I were in Tanner's shoes reading me vs VP, the case against VP is stronger.

If people (Tanner) still aren't convinced, I'm not sure what I can do to convince you. I feel like all the pieces are there now, if you look at them clearly.

[imaginality]

I think we should flip the gate first maybe since it is the most discussed and my reads will bear fruit when my alignment is public

Interesting to see this post just a few posts after I remind Tanner that flipping the Keep first would show if DArby/Pav is town which would paint VP in considerably worse light.

He's relying on Darby/Pav flipping town to paint you in a worse light.

And me flipping scum would make you look really good.

So if he wants Keep to flip first, he's banking on Me/Pavo both being town in Keep.

I'm less sure about Pav because VP was angling for us to go to the Wall, and Pav could be scum with VP intending for one of them to swap out of Wall if it had ended up as me-him-Pav. I definitely think you'll flip town though.

[VP Baltar]

VP is trying to steamroller over me today.

Now we are on to AtE. Which step of grieving is that?

Seriously though, your theorizing is consistently incoherent and reaching for any desperate angle to call me scum. You've stated I've done so many things that are galaxy brain moves, it makes no sense. Why would I spend my time reading and responding to such nonsense when I know it is all fake?

[RH9]

Notice

Spoiler: Important

I skipped Tanner because he is confirmed Town.

Spoiler: Table

My Observations and Reads
Players		Analysis
Original	Replacement	Notes	Verdict
numberQ		288 can be made from a Town trying to give advice or scum hiding a warning as Galron once did here in Mini 2250. I agree with 335, though this is NAI because scum can be agreeable too. I agree with his opinion of my predecessor in 530. However, I disagree with 531. I don't think that Pavowski is scum. However, the clarification in 551 makes me feel better. 687 seems like a good question but both Town and scum have the motivation to ask that.	Null
implosion		79, 84, 178 could come from both scum and Town for similar reasons on why numberQ's advice in 288 is NAI. I agree with 129, especially the last sentence. 131 confuses me. I agree with 591, in that scum likely moved implosion because he was getting TRed a lot and scum moved him in order to let themselves win. This points to scum!Lukewarm because he was notably desperate in winning as seen in 125. I agree with 593. 594 feels like Town because he is trying to sort the people that are in his minigame. I think that it is a bit odd that implosion doesn't feel like Lukewarm is scum, though. 674 is so true. I vehemently disagree with 901 for making Lukewarm look like he has almost completely no chance of being scum. 904 is annoying me to pieces because why do you not consider that Lukewarm is scum who has Aristeia pocketed? 908 is so true, though. If I was scum, I would definitely considering bussing. Most of posts afterwards seems to be a meaningless argument with Aristeia. 1203 is a decent comeback.	Null
imaginality		195 seems odd as though he's trying to please people and it feels fake. However, I have done that as Town before, making it NAI. 260 could be a clarification of a genuine mistake or a deliberate one intended as a reaction test. This is NAI. I find that for similar reasons on why numberQ's and implosion's advice is NAI, it applies to imaginality's 283 too. Most other posts seem NAI too. 691, 971, and 1248 feels like single-minded attack on VP Baltar. 1230 feels like he somehow changed his mind and thus he realises that he's looking like we are scum together.	Null
Lukewarm		1032 felt off to me due to his astounding confidence on his reads. Seeing that implosion got moved and how much Lukewarm exhibited a desire to win in 125, it is obvious that Lukewarm is scum. He seems strangely into meta and theory. Examples of this include 29, 32, 34, 78, 101, 324, 484, 554 and 896.	Scum
DArby	Pavowski	As previously noted in 1086, 1060 feels like Pavowski is trying to do something which is something that I don't think that scum would do. This is because volunteering himself for a vote would appear LAMIST. I agree with a couple of his posts. Examples include 463, 467, 611, 614. Why is Pavowski the only one to get it?Why did my predecessor think so highly of Lukewarm? I agree with 50 149, and 150 from DArby. There is no way that Pavowski is scum.	Town
Aristeia		I like a lot of her posts. Examples include 100, 102 and 107. 108 makes me want to scream at my predecessor for placing Lukewarm on a pedestal instead of noticing the wisdom of Aristeia. 110 is so correct. 153 is a good idea. 290 is so sweet. 488. makes sense. 920 is so true. Anybody who disagrees is scum. 922 almost makes me think that I'm wrong on Lukewarm. Also, Aristeia, you remind me of marcistar and Morning Tweet.	Townlean
VP Baltar		Seems to ask questions a couple of times. Examples include 9, 147, 151, 161, 180, 186, 207, 221 and 387. 205 feels defensive. I don't get 217 and 395. I agree with 771. I like response to imaginality in 856. Scumreads in 859 makes sense. 864 shows good solving intent. 918 seems like he is wanting answers. 975 seems like he's gone and actually done research. Interactions with Aristeia, which include 979 and 981, feels like he is trying to work with her. 1209 seems like Town wanting to know things. I feel like 1243 and 1244 makes sense.	Townlean

[RH9]

By the way, Tanner, don't get upset over me not including you because you are confirmed Town and thus obviously, everything you say has Town motivation.

[Aristeia]

Thanks RH9 you are very sweet <3

[implosion]

I think part of the reason I've been getting so hung up on Aristeia is that her being scum is like, the easiest way for this game to make sense without feeling arrogant. Or more, calling Pav scum just feels too arrogant. But I don't really have any particularly good reason for him to not be scum.

Could you explain more what you mean by this - how scum!Ari simplifies the game?

Or more, calling Pav scum just feels too arrogant

Arrogant? Not sure what you mean.

What I basically mean to respond to both of these is that if Pav is scum then our Collective Reads tm on d1 were just really good. And (a) like I had mentioned on d1 I want to be flexible now and (2) no one was really complaining about the plans that we came up with on d1; they were universally accepted with no fuss at all. It just feels kind of ehhh to accept that that was the case if it was 0 scum at keep initially.

[implosion]

RH9 you'd better work to get a not-null read on either me or numberQ given those are the only two reads of yours that actually matter x_x

[imaginality]

VP is trying to steamroller over me today.

Now we are on to AtE. Which step of grieving is that?

The step where you go on to prove me right?

Seriously though, your theorizing is consistently incoherent and reaching for any desperate angle to call me scum. You've stated I've done so many things that are galaxy brain moves, it makes no sense. Why would I spend my time reading and responding to such nonsense when I know it is all fake?

[VP Baltar]

Think I realized who Ari is. I'll reread tomorrow with that in mind.

[VP Baltar]

What I basically mean to respond to both of these is that if Pav is scum then our Collective Reads tm on d1 were just really good. And (a) like I had mentioned on d1 I want to be flexible now and (2) no one was really complaining about the plans that we came up with on d1; they were universally accepted with no fuss at all. It just feels kind of ehhh to accept that that was the case if it was 0 scum at keep initially.

Ok, that makes sense

[Aristeia]

Think I realized who Ari is. I'll reread tomorrow with that in mind.

your opponent has already preflipped me as town and you are still confused about my alignment

it's absolutely maddening

[imaginality]

Think I realized who Ari is. I'll reread tomorrow with that in mind.

your opponent has already preflipped me as town and you are still confused about my alignment

it's absolutely maddening

You'll feel less stressed when you realise its because he's scum and doesn't want to consider you clear town because then they won't win the Keep.

On which note, I do agree with your earlier point in post 1214: if I were deciding, the Keep vote should be for you. I said as much pretty soon after #971, in post 1040.

As for your other question in #1214 about why I still analysed Luke vs Pav after I already town read you: figuring which of those two is scum is important because it informs us about one side of the swap, so it helps us narrow down what the plan was with that.

[Aristeia]

I think you don't understand my relationship with Tanner if you think he would ever trust me enough to ask me to be flipped.

[Aristeia]

You'll feel less stressed when you realise its because he's scum and doesn't want to consider you clear town because then they won't win the Keep.

I think it's more likely he's just a big dumb-dumb, I've read quite a few of his games hehe.

[RH9]

I remember that last time I saw Baltar around, he was Town and got eliminated in the endgame when the scum coordinated a hammer on him.

[RH9]

I remember that last time I saw Baltar around, he was Town and got eliminated in the endgame when the scum coordinated a hammer on him.

He was right on one of the scum.

[Aristeia]

RH9 have you figured out who is scum in the Wall yet?

[RH9]

RH9 have you figured out who is scum in the Wall yet?

Not really, but out of implosion and numberQ, I would be inclined to say numberQ. This is because implosion has continued to pour his effort into this game while numberQ remains as he was. However, this might just be due to numberQ being busy IRL which hindered his ability to play in this game.

[RH9]

RH9 have you figured out who is scum in the Wall yet?

Not really, but out of implosion and numberQ, I would be inclined to say numberQ. This is because implosion has continued to pour his effort into this game while numberQ remains as he was. However, this might just be due to numberQ being busy IRL which hindered his ability to play in this game.

I mean that if I had to vote somebody, I would vote numberQ because I know that one of the two is scum.

[Aristeia]

mmm

how tilted is lukewarm at imaginality in the scum pt rn?

[imaginality]

Remember not to tell Tanner and Ari this is a secret bastard game and town has a secret win condition that they only win if the two town players correctly figure out all eight other players are scum before page 60.