Open 840 - Guardians of the Fortress [Game Over]

[imaginality]

(Eight including Prism who is not only modding but is also part of a hydra with Pooky, the hydra being VP Baltar (this bastard game has been planned for decades))

[imaginality]

Oh shit those posts were supposed to go in the scum thread.

[Aristeia]

It's ok you should share the fun with us instead!

Townies need laughs too!

[imaginality]

For avoidance of doubt, the above posts are jokes and I'm not in a scum Private Thread with VP, numberQ, RH9, implosion, Lukewarm and Pavowski.

We're using Discord instead.

[imaginality]

Okay I'm bored of pretending to be scum. It makes me feel like I'm VP Baltar.

Ari are you also bored of pretending I'm scum or is your switcheroo on me serious?
If it's serious is it because:
A. you think your town flip will help scum me?
B. you think my interactions post is junk?
C. I'm not flirting with you?
D. Xyzzy?
E. Other?

If it's A, your town flip helps town me. Fair enough for not town reading me for wanting you to flip but it's something I'd be pushing for as scum as much as I am as town. I know for sure you and VP aren't T/T and I think getting you proven to be Town helps others see VP is scum because they place more weight on your side of your arguments with him.

If it's B, I think you're not giving that post enough credit as it not only helped me clear two players as town in my eyes (explained in the post) but also strengthened my later case that RH9 is scum.

If it's C, sorry, I don't want to make Tanner jealous at least not til after he's voted. I'll come flirt with you when we're in the dead thread and he's stuck out here with the Wallees.

If it's D, fair enough, can't argue with that.

If it's E, please explain?

[imaginality]

Think I realized who Ari is. I'll reread tomorrow with that in mind.

Gosh, VP, I'm on tenterhooks wondering what your conclusion about Ari will be after your re-read!

[Aristeia]

VP Baltar just sounded really earnest about wanting to be flipped and that made me feel like he actually is town here.

Let's say VPB is scum,

He flips red, wins gate.

This more or less makes it that I am a shoo-in at Keep, I win keep.

Then he still needs the Wall player to win, which doesn't really seem like good odds for him if it's RH9.


Meanwhile you wanted to pre-flip the Keep but instead of just using my pre-flip, you wanted to use two different pre-flips to nail VPB and that's quite a stretch.

For example this post:

I think we should flip the gate first maybe since it is the most discussed and my reads will bear fruit when my alignment is public

Interesting to see this post just a few posts after I remind Tanner that flipping the Keep first would show if DArby/Pav is town which would paint VP in considerably worse light.

You're kind of relying on two different pre-flips at the Keep to bury VPB, you want Pav and me to both flip town - that would imply you strongly believe Lukewarm to be scum in the Keep.

However you don't express a scumread of Lukewarm -> which kind of makes no sense - in your analysis you had the Keep sequence as Ari>Luke>Pavo

It feels significantly like you are TMIing the keep pre-flips will bolster your case against VpB by pre-flipping me and pavo both as town.

I think you set up the associatives very well to win the 1v1 at Gate post Keep Flip but it's not really useful if Keep doesn't flip first. Hence when Tanner starts saying he wants to vote for you, you kind of get desperate and want to bring this information out into the light to bury VpB with. Meanwhile VpB apparently is too oblivious to even realize you're tmiing a double flip at keep without updating your scum-read to being one of Luke, he's still trying to "figure out my alignment" or whatever he's doing in his world up there.

[imaginality]

1131 wasn't a strong point, as I said earlier it's just interesting timing.

I actually doubt Pav will flip town but, as I said, IF he does it's an additional point against VP (because of how it makes the D1 location set up a more obvious play compared to a sneakier pre-planned swap).

You're taking it to mean I'm saying Pav will flip town but that's not what I said.

As for VP I think you're confusing 'earnest about being flipped before Keep' with 'not wanting to be flipped after Keep'.

[Aristeia]

it kind of sounds like you think Pavo will flip town and this will be another bullet you can use vs VPB along with me flipping town.

I'm not really sure how else you read what you wrote.

[Aristeia]

Which I guess really just makes Luke's scum performance even more stellar if he fake-slipped a TMI post of slipping you as "conftown" like

wow

Truly great play Luke <3

[imaginality]

Tanner's been leaning to voting me to varying degrees most of this game. It's another reason I want Keep to flip first because I feel like I'm doing my best to convince him I'm town but he's tunnelled and not really going to be persuaded by me alone. So a Keep flip introduces an outside element that can help to shift that.

[imaginality]

I think we should flip the gate first maybe since it is the most discussed and my reads will bear fruit when my alignment is public

Interesting to see this post just a few posts after I remind Tanner that flipping the Keep first would show

if

DArby/Pav is town which would paint VP in considerably worse light.

This post is absolutely not saying "I expect Pav to flip town". It's a conditional.

[Aristeia]

So a Keep flip introduces an outside element that can help to shift that.

Right that's reasonable

but the outside element you are counting on is for me/pavo to both flip town.

But you're not really saying the missing part, which is that makes Lukewarm scum.

So you're asking for a Keep flip without the right mindset behind the ask.

It's more about turning over our town cards to save your 1v1 rather than making sure Lukewarm-scum doesn't win the keep.

[Aristeia]

I think we should flip the gate first maybe since it is the most discussed and my reads will bear fruit when my alignment is public

Interesting to see this post just a few posts after I remind Tanner that flipping the Keep first would show

if

DArby/Pav is town which would paint VP in considerably worse light.

This post is absolutely not saying "I expect Pav to flip town". It's a conditional.

It's a conditional that you expect to happen...

You're saying the motivation behind VPB trying to flip first is to cover up the Keep results which will show that he's a baddie, which means you expect those results to be bad for him.

[imaginality]

Let's say VPB is scum,

He flips red, wins gate.

This more or less makes it that I am a shoo-in at Keep, I win keep.

Then he still needs the Wall player to win, which doesn't really seem like good odds for him if it's RH9

They planned in N1 when it was still Toogeloo. I think their odds at Wall have worsened with the replacement but not like they could change the plan at this point.

[imaginality]

I think we should flip the gate first maybe since it is the most discussed and my reads will bear fruit when my alignment is public

Interesting to see this post just a few posts after I remind Tanner that flipping the Keep first would show

if

DArby/Pav is town which would paint VP in considerably worse light.

This post is absolutely not saying "I expect Pav to flip town". It's a conditional.

It's a conditional that you expect to happen...

You're saying the motivation behind VPB trying to flip first is to cover up the Keep results which will show that he's a baddie, which means you expect those results to be bad for him.

It's not one I expect to happen. It's one that went from not expected at all (before VP's post) to 'hmm interesting, is that connected?' which is the vein of my post.

I am definitely relying on you flipping town to help convince Tanner VP is scum. (Sidenote, if you and VP are scum buddies you have me completely fooled!)

You leapt to assuming I also expect Pav to flip town but I don't, and even with the 'hmm interesting' I still don't think it's the likely outcome.

Now I actually hope Pav definitely flips scum because if he flips town, the help that gives to my VP case is gonna be outweighed by the suspicion you're throwing up about my post.

[imaginality]

In 1027, the earlier post that 1131 referred to:

I'd also note here that VP first proposed me+him+DArby/Pav, Tanner was just listed as an alternative. And from a scum!VP perspective DArby/Pav is very much mislim bait if town. So if DArby/Pav is town, VP's first option was what he himself says is a 'way easier scenario' and his backup option was a player who he knows will town read him for being at the same location. Flipping Keep first will confirm if DArby/Pav is town or not.

Again, this isn't saying "Pav will flip town." it's saying, flipping Pav will reveal if he is or isn't. And if he is, well, that's bad for VP. It's just an additional chance for some input that could help Tanner vote correctly.

[imaginality]

The main point of that earlier post was that VP was misrepping himself as proposing to go with Tanner from the start, rather than starting with DArby and shifting to Tanner.

[imaginality]

I feel surest about Ari being town and Luke has said he thinks Ari's town so if it's entirely my call I'd get Luke to vote Ari.
If we do the 'get the scummiest player to choose who to vote' thing I'd get Pav to choose between the other two.

Here's proof your interpretation is wrong: this came after 1027 and I'm saying I see Pav as scummiest. So even though I raised the possibility he might flip town in 1027, it was only as a possibility. It didn't change me saying he's scummiest, or recommending you get voted for in Keep.

[Aristeia]

I think you're wasting your efforts to argue with me,

I don't actually have any influence on what happens in your mini-game

Tanner doesn't really listen to me very often, if at all, even when I am flipped town.

You should focus more on trying to show that VpB is mafia

[imaginality]

I think you're wasting your efforts to argue with me,

I don't actually have any influence on what happens in your mini-game

Tanner doesn't really listen to me very often, if at all, even when I am flipped town.

You should focus more on trying to show that VpB is mafia

Yeah that's why I want Keep flipped first but someone started saying I had scum motive for that soooo....

[implosion]

Right now I'm not entirely sure why we should drastically adjust reads in other games based on how earlier games flip anyhow - again having accurate reads in game X while playing in game Y does not really make one more likely to be town.

The one kind of analysis I do think is directly valid in this way is the analysis around whether the game was 1-1-1 or 2-1-0. That is to say, if we flip wall and keep before gate, and it turns out it was 2-1-0 before the swap, then suddenly any argument around imaginality not wanting to 1v1 VP becomes much less valid, because imaginality would have been forced to 1v1 either VP or Tanner. If it turns out it was 1-1-1 before the swap, then suddenly those arguments gain additional credence because we'd then have to account for why exactly scum chose to swap this pair of people.

[implosion]

Would scum!Baltar really want to place himself at the gate with him + imaginality + miselim bait, and be foreced to IC either imaginality or miselim bait over Tanner?

Yeah, that scenario sounds way easier. I would just IC imaginality and then get the easier player tossed. How is that not a way easier scenario than going into a situation with someone who regularly grills me in games where I am town?

I'd also note here that VP first proposed me+him+DArby/Pav, Tanner was just listed as an alternative. And from a scum!VP perspective DArby/Pav is very much mislim bait if town. So if DArby/Pav is town, VP's first option was what he himself says is a 'way easier scenario' and his backup option was a player who he knows will town read him for being at the same location. Flipping Keep first will confirm if DArby/Pav is town or not.

I guess analysis like this is also an exception actually. Though I also think the reasoning here is putting the cart before the horse by arguing that if VP is scum then this play makes sense for him to do as scum, without any reason he wouldn't have done the same thing as town.

[implosion]

As previously noted in 1086, 1060 feels like Pavowski is trying to do something which is something that I don't think that scum would do. This is because volunteering himself for a vote would appear LAMIST. I agree with a couple of his posts. Examples include 463, 467, 611, 614. Why is Pavowski the only one to get it?Why did my predecessor think so highly of Lukewarm? I agree with 50 149, and 150 from DArby. There is no way that Pavowski is scum.

This is kind of buck-wild.

First of all, Pavowski is hardly "volunteering" himself for a vote. Tanner instigated the interaction by saying he had been considering telling people to vote for Pavowski. How would scum react differently there?? By saying "nah, don't vote me"??

Second, agreeability is almost never a towntell. Especially when the person he's calling scum that you agree with is one of two people that he is literally obligated to call one of scum.

Third, "there is no way that pavowski is scum" is just such an extreme statement. Really? You gave me a "have you considered that you might be wrong on Lukewarm", but you're so confident as to proclaim that there's no way that you're possibly wrong?

I'm not entirely sure if the things I'm complaining about here are all that scum-indicative tbh. But I think the sort of left-field take on Pav's slot in particular is a perfectly viable tact to take if RH9 is replacing in as scum here. Certainly if he's scum he has to do something to shake things up, given me and nQ have both indicated preferences of voting his slot out. I guess I think there's a good chance town just would never come to this conclusion so strongly - I think it's certainly possible for town to come to the conclusion that Pav is town and Luke is scum but I feel like there's a sort of unearned confidence that doesn't really match the tone of the rest of his posting so far.

[implosion]

Okay the more I read RH9's read post the more I feel like I'm reading a different game from him.

1032 felt off to me due to his astounding confidence on his reads.

"Astounding confidence"??

I'm not even super interested in making a giant case about him because it's kind of pointless. This is why I'm saying people need to look at actual actions in the game and who is trying to effectively solve. Motive is the guiding light here.

You have both presented scum and town cases across games. Like I mentioned to tanner, I kinda planned on doing a hard sort of the two of you once the wall flipped. Or, if at any point we started leaning towards the keep flipping first sitting down to do an if x then y post based on how the keep flipped. (but he asked me for my thoughts right now)

Pre flips I am leaning you>imaginality but it is not a hard read. You are looking pretty unpartnered with Ari here, so my if x then y post would probably say that an ari scum flip = town baltar. Don't think that a Pav scum flip would sway my reads in the Gate tho

"I am leaning"

"not a hard read"

"would probably say"

In what world is this astounding confidence? If you're town, are you sure

you

haven't locked yourself into a narrative of Luke-scum and you're reading everything you're seeing through that lens?