Open 840 - Guardians of the Fortress Saboteur PT

[imaginality]

Ooh. Asking me to put percentages on how likely I think it is you, Ari and Pav flip scum could be good, actually. Doesn't directly argue with her or require you to change your read on me but helps defend me indirectly.

[imaginality]

Like I'd say something like: I think chance of Ari flipping scum is 5%, chance of you flipping scum is 15%, chance of Pav flipping scum is 80%.

[Lukewarm]

Honestly though, it's a bad point she's making so I hope others see that.
She's taking me considering the possibility of Pav flipping town to mean I'm saying he WILL flip town (which is the reason why she thinks it's scummy I'm not hard scum reading you) and that's just not true.

I think that my honest read of the back and forth of that, if I was town, would be scum caught for the wrong reasons.

Her original point was okay, not great. You could have just as easily have been considering all of the options.

Green Ari looks bad for him for their 1v1, green pav looks bad for him for what ever reason you said before. And ONE of those must be true, so you thought flipping the keep would help make it clear he was scum no matter what.

However, your approach to that 1v1 feels a bit bad from my pov Maybe it is me conf biasing myself, but it looked like cornered scum to me. Which I get it, it was unexpected and a perfect solve.


But that is kind of why I want to see how others react? To see if it looks bad to them?

[Lukewarm]

Currently doing some voice to text while driving, so forgive me if this is garbled at all.

I do not like the percentages. They feel forced in response to what she said I think? And also having have be that high almost proves her point about it being weird that you were actively and loudly considering him flipping tail. Even if you do go with the percentage option, I don't think it should be 80%.

I think that our path to victory at this point is for me to play chicken with path. I think I need to come in and say that Ari's cases on both of you at the gate has been very persuasive so much so that I don't think that she's ever partnered with either one. And something along the lines of me having held off on voting her to this point because there was a small worry that she could be partnered with you. But last night she demolished that worry LOL

And so at this point I don't think she's ever partnered with baltar after the way they butt heads, and I don't think she's ever partnered with you after the way you genuinely felt so surprised by the angle that you came at her. So from my point of view she's never partnered with either people that I know must contain a scum.

So explain that, and then say that at this point I think that I am ready to just say I'm going to vote for her and I'm going to start making my if x then y post. Say I plan on getting that done by the end of the day, and voting for her, unless Tanner strongly objects for whatever reason or somebody has a strong case for Ari being partnered with either one of you guys cuz I just don't see it.

Only way we win at this point I think, it's for me to play that game of chicken, and pad vote for me. I think Ari absolutely needs to be out of the game so we have to force the key to go first. I think so far as to say that I might even do exactly what Ari jokingly said before, and if Pat hasn't voted me by the end of the day, I vote Ari and hope that that's the final thing that pushes him to vote me. Because I think there are number one goal it's the knockary out. If I can do that and also eat out the win at the keep great, but if not, I think she's got to go.

[Lukewarm]

To be clear, I don't feel confident that that makes us win. But it feels like not doing that just loses. At this point I think if any of the games solve on their own, whichever game goes first, we lose. Tanner was already leaning you as the scum at the gate before Ari just did this case. And rh9 I think is the default of them elimination at the wall. And now that Ari has presented the correct solve, I don't think that either of y'all flips puts me in a better position to win..

[Lukewarm]

You just need to figure out why scum Luke plus baltar would make that boat. The answer I think would be something along the lines that I think I'm leaving both other games where they are going to be one. So that would probably implicate implosion. Because I thought that that was going to win. And then also I didn't want Ari to have time to reverse her reads all over again. That one's a bit of a long shot, but I'm not sure what other path to victory we have right now.

If you got something better hit me with it.

[Lukewarm]

"Luke knew that flipping right after Ari made that case linking us, always kills me"

Borrible play if we are partnered, but is him betting the game on the wall

[Lukewarm]

I think Toog getting sick really hurt us this game. We really needed the keep to resolve like 24 hours ago, but it was hard to push for it when we had a slot being replaced. Would have been bad with a townie getting replaced, but even worse with a baddie, because we were down a person to push for a flip. And even when we got rh here, it is hard for a newly repped in player to push for it.

Basically him getting sick delayed the first game resolving, which is pretty sad face

[Lukewarm]

And Tanner with the steel chair!

[Lukewarm]

On a re-read, I actually think you look better then I thought on my original read in the middle of the night.

[imaginality]

Let's hope Pav is around and reacts how you want before you get called on your bluff!
I do like how you've left room for the possibility that scum me and Ari are tanking me because we think the Wall is won and she can win Keep

[imaginality]

On a re-read, I actually think you look better then I thought on my original read in the middle of the night.

I think if there'd been other conversations going on at the time it would've seemed better. The fact it's just me and Ari didn't do me any favours, I think.

[RH9]

Baltar thinks that you two are paired.

[RH9]

Tanner claims to be about to hammer imaginality.

[Lukewarm]

The bad day and migraine are both true btw. I considered not mentioning them in the thread, but I am sure that I sound incredilbly flat right now compared to normal. A bad irl day = a flat sounding luke, even in my prior town games.

Figured having that out there could not hurt

[imaginality]

RH9, isn't 1430 basically a scum claim on your part?
Why would I want to distance from associatives with you if you're town?

[imaginality]

That sucks, Luke. I get cluster headaches sometimes (migraine intensity but one side of head only), I know it's hard to function at your best. Sorry also to hear about the bad day.

Whatever happens this game I don't think you could have played it any better, you've been superb.

Keeping my fingers crossed though. Tanner did recently mention a me-Pav-numberQ solve, so there's hope!

[RH9]

RH9, isn't 1430 basically a scum claim on your part?
Why would I want to distance from associatives with you if you're town?

Oops. I really need everybody to realise that I have a super weak scumgame.

[RH9]

I guess that would keep on trying to make me look like a scumbuddy if I was Town.

[imaginality]

@Luke, I'm colourblind to the extent I can't tell whether you put me or VP as red or green. Bright red and bright green are easier but the more muted hues are basically impossible to tell apart.

Not that it matters in any way, just thought I'd mention.

[RH9]

Hey, just realised that lendunistus modded my first scumgame as well as Micro 1016 where Lukewarm was scum. That's a nice coincidence, especially since my first scumgame was Micro 1036, twenty games after Micro 1016.

[Lukewarm]

I am trying my best to paranoia Tanner into having me be voted. I put several things to be worried about Ari in my if x then y, but then didn't call them out persay. Hoping to paranoia Tanner and/pav here into doing something.

Tanner and baltar both seem to have picked up one it

This is a dangerous path to tread, just because they might question why I did not start scum reading Ari for those very things. Best answer I have is being thoroughly pocketed

[Lukewarm]

@Luke, I'm colourblind to the extent I can't tell whether you put me or VP as red or green. Bright red and bright green are easier but the more muted hues are basically impossible to tell apart.

Not that it matters in any way, just thought I'd mention.

If Ari flips red, you are green, town 100%. Baltar is red

If pav flips red, you orange, Lean scum. Baltar is yellow.

Sorry, probably should have labeled and colored lol

[Lukewarm]

Tanner has joined the ranks of people I have pocketed this game.

I just need him to pull the trigger, and tell pav to vote me x.x

[Lukewarm]

Like, that puts us back in this

Ari exiting the game is probably more important then us winning the keep, but if I can win it on my way out, that could be neat