Open 840 - Guardians of the Fortress [Game Over]

[imaginality]

So in today's news: I'm a genius.

@Tanner: Luke traded what was maybe a 50% chance of winning Keep if he'd waited (maybe Ari's still selected but maybe Ari or Pav vote him) for a 10% chance of winning by voting early (only win is if Pav comes online, and reacts by voting Luke, before Ari who was already online sees Luke's vote and hammers). These are just example numbers but my point is, it clearly reduced Luke's chance of winning Keep, right?

So. There are three options for why Luke makes that vote:
1. Luke's made a terrible call, like maybe he thought Ari wouldn't insta hammer
2. Luke is scum who gave up and threw the game
3. Luke is smart and has a plan

Luke's smart and motivated so I think it's clear it's not 1 or 2.
And I think I can see what the plan is.

But I want to hear your thoughts first, because I don't want VP calling it scum BS and he can't do that if you see it this way too.

So, start with these questions:

- what can Luke

guarantee

will happen by making that vote, that he couldn't guarantee if he didn't?
- how does that help his scum team enough to be worth slashing his odds of winning Keep?

[implosion]

Do you want exclusively Tanner to answer those?

[imaginality]

At first, yes.

[Tanner]

- what can Luke guarantee will happen by making that vote, that he couldn't guarantee if he didn't?
- how does that help his scum team enough to be worth slashing his odds of winning Keep?

he can guarantee that his game is the one flipped first, which would help his scumteam if his associates are such in a way that would lead us down the wrong path. is that what you were aiming for?

[imaginality]

That's half of it. As you say, it only makes sense as a move if Luke felt that scum are very likely to win both the other games. To me, if you accept that, it points to VP (objectively; obviously I already know it's him) and to implosion at the Wall. I don't think either numberQ or RH9 could say with confidence they're likely not to be the lim there, but implosion can say that.

The additional thing Luke achieved is, he guaranteed his game wouldn't just flip first but would flip

immediately, right there and then

, which meant Ari and Pav wouldn't have any more time to change their reads at all.

I think that's significant with Ari in particular who'd just shifted from scum reading VP to scum reading me based primarily on a misinterpretation. Luke didn't want to risk her switching back at VP.

Also Pav had been fairly undeclared about our game, but I think Ari is the main factor here. They flipped the Keep right at the moment where it is best for VP. They didn't flip it earlier when Ari scum read VP, and they couldn't control what would have happened if they'd waited longer. It could have ended up with Luke still losing Keep to Ari but the trail pointing back to VP.

[imaginality]

Also happy new year from NZ!

[Tanner]

I think that's significant with Ari in particular who'd just shifted from scum reading VP to scum reading me based primarily on a misinterpretation.

i was under the impression that she shifted to scumreading you mostly based on the fact she started townreading vp?

and that analysis is... fine, i guess, my only issue with it is that vp/implo team doesn't make sense based on d1. when i first proposed that vp/imaginality/implo go to the same location, vp first agreed, then said that he actually wants someone else to be the third, then proposed implo go to the keep instead? if i'm assuming that scum isn't purposefully putting the minigame numbers as 2-1-0, then those two don't really make sense.

i'll definitely do some rereading today anyway. that scumflip is a huge egg on my face, i don't trust myself to be making any calls now, at least not yet.

[Tanner]

I don't really have strong feelings about where I go. Now that you brought this up, I'm half considering going where you go because I feel fairly confident I can actually town read you at this point (of course, haven't seen your scum game in awhile, so who knows)

i was skimming earlier, and i thought this is actually fairly +town in the same way that aristeia's "come to the keep with me so i can vote you" is +town. right after i said i want to go to the keep, baltar is proposing (1) that we go to the same location together and (2) that he is confident in being able to townread me. if we were to end up at the keep, he either has to correctly townread me (lose the keep) or bullshit something why this is my scumgame, which would make me scumread him and vote the third person (lose the keep).

granted, don't know how much water this holds if lukewarm entered the scumchat like "ok i'm locking in the keep immediately fuck y'all", *and* considering he was lowkey angling towards a scumread on me on day 1... pain.

[Tanner]

on *another* note, luke flipping scum looks potentially bad for vp (bc vp wanted luke to to be the one voted in the keep) and ari flipping green looks potentially good for imaginality (bc he wanted her to get voted). so if we're going by *that* route, it's kinda puzzling why scum!luke would be like "ackchually we're resolving the keep now" when i was giving very clear indication that i was on the verge of voting baltar.

why do i play mafia

[Tanner]

aaaand if i were to vote, and baltar were to flip red, that makes ari look bad? because she went to trying to pocket me and get me to vote imaginality? wouldn't that have made the keep easier to win? instead of doing the yolo suicide strats?

[Tanner]

interesting that baltar was like "yo, why is imaginality wanting to give ari the voting power when she would obviously vote luke, that implies a scum!luke" *twice* when that never happened. tmi slip?

[imaginality]

And yeah, my explanation does imply they deliberately went 2-1-0 with the locations. I think it's more likely they did that (which limits their options but also gives them some advantage with it not being the expected move), than that Luke deliberately tanked Keep for no good reason.

I guess maybe they could have numberQ and feel that confident of winning Wall with how RH9 is playing? But I doubt it.

Pedit: were you on the verge of voting Baltar? Not sure that was clear in the thread compared to just indecision and wanting to delay the vote longer. And as I mentioned, that would have given Ari time to swing back.

And they did also try to get Gate to flip straight away also:

you have called me a coward like 5 times today

not saying i don't deserve it, but like, do you have to >_>

I believe you can rise above this by taking action, either tell Ari who to vote or hammer imaginality. This game needs to move forward.

The reason I keep telling you to hammer imaginality is that you will feel good when he flips red. I'm actually trying to relieve your anxiety by telling you to trust yourself.

<<Obi-wan fades into mist>>

So I think they tried what you said of getting Gate to flip, saw you didn't bite and wanted to delay more, and forced Keep to resolve rather than risk the dynamics shifting again.

[imaginality]

interesting that baltar was like "yo, why is imaginality wanting to give ari the voting power when she would obviously vote luke, that implies a scum!luke" *twice* when that never happened. tmi slip?

Yeah. There was some other slip VP made that you picked up on too, I think?

[Tanner]

Also, Baltar, you do realize that imaginality is only confirmed

town

from your POV, and not from tanner's, right?

luke and vp confirmed scum ggwp

wouldn't it be really fucking funny if

[imaginality]

I should sleep in a bit but can stick around another half hour or so if you want to discuss this stuff more?
Otherwise happy to leave it with you. My main point is, is there any better alternative explanation for Luke's vote? Cos I'm not seeing one

[Tanner]

i'm currently out, and i'm not sure if there's a point in me discussing this stuff until i sit down and actually reread at least parts of this game. and this cursed game kept me up till 5am last night so i would like at least half a day off. will be back on it before the new year here, though.

[imaginality]

Okay, all good. Yes good to get some time away to clear your head!

[VP Baltar]

Imaginality, you sneaky sneak, trying to paranoia Tanner while I sleep.

[VP Baltar]

Implo was talking about literal first movers and I was talking about early voters in general. The fact ari said that doesn't make her +town and it's silly you'd make that assumption.

I am not sure what you are saying here?

Spoiler: The posts I'm talking about

I kind of agree with Aris that first movers probably have +scum

due to the simple fact scum have more direct incentive to move first.

My point is there is more likely to be a scum among the first movers due to the desire to prevent a lockout.

I agree first first mover is probably slightly +town.

Of course, now that we have talked about it, it feels like it all means nothing, so...

From my pov it just looks like you called me +scum in 120 and then turned around and called me +town in 138 for the exact same action, both times being agreeable with who ever made the original argument.

Are you saying that you were calling ari +scum in 120? if so, why lead it with "I agree with ari"

This should have been a red flag for me. Of course scum is so paranoid of being called scum they'd interpret a harmless post from me talking about theory as an affront to them.

[VP Baltar]

Lukewarm
- the vote explanation feels genuine to me
- my sense is he wouldn't want to be the centre of attention as scum in the way casting the first vote made him

So if I had to guess, imaginality probably didn't town read both of his scum buddies in this post. That means...(next post)

[VP Baltar]

numberQ
- only two posts, so not much to go on
-but I find this switch jarring, from #42"I was really hoping we'd talk about assignments more" to #64 "I'm fine not picking where I go. I have no real preference for which location I'm in."

NQ is most likely our third scum. He's the only person from the last game listed among imaginality's scum reads in that initial post.

Maybe after I get some coffee this morning, I'll look at Luke/NQ interactions for funsies before Tanner hammers.

[Tanner]

ok my "half a day break" has turned into a "half an hour break"

that's pretty quick to conclude who's the last scum, eh?

[VP Baltar]

Speedy speedy

[Tanner]

i'm rereading my argument with luke on day 1 and how he was misrepping me and i feel very dumb now

[Tanner]

though i'm not sure how much stock i should be putting into "scum would be trying super hard to be 1-1-1". not only were they guaranteed to not autolose on day 1 based on ari and luke locking into keep within the first 3 minutes, i still think my feelings of most of the game being "i don't care where i go" on day 1 are valid, especially now that we know that pav was town. means scum didn't really care about where they go.