Open 840 - Guardians of the Fortress [Game Over]

[VP Baltar]

Maybe you already answered this, my bad if so. But who would you be comfortable voting in that 3rd slot?

Implo is probably my top choice atm

Luke advocating for implo at the third keep spot....only to have him switched out over night. So weird.

[VP Baltar]

Gate

Tanner

His plan for the keep does nothing for me reading it back, because that plan wins it for town tanner and for scum tanner, so he could very much want that plan either way.

21 feels

off

to me. like the "I want you to be town, bit it's obviously too early to tell" feels... idk if performative is the right word, maybe forced?

I also don't like his interaction with Ari 72 and 74 72 feels like a lot of words to say nothing, but then to drop his town lean on Ari for some reason.

I am strugling to see the town motivation behind

why would your read of me even matter if I am going to be voting for you?

those are words that aren't yet actions, and i'm still not sure if i will be calling that bluff.

His response here does not make sense to me. Her "bluff" is that she is going to vote for him, which if she is telling the truth wins the game for him regardless of his alignment. If she is "bluffing" what is the concern for town Tanner? IF she is scum bluffing, then she you give her voting power, and town tanner wins. IF she is town bluffing, then she is giving voting power, and tanner is in a 1v1 with the other person in the keep - which is where he later says that he wants to be, the person in the 1v1, not the person making the vote

depends on whether i'm the person 1v1'ing or if i'm the person deciding the vote. if i'm the one 1v1'ing, i've never lost. if i'm deciding, i've never decided correctly. which is why i wanted to go to keep and why i want to avoid the gate at all costs. and why i'll probably end up there.

So this worry about "calling her bluff" feels more like scum tanner, worried that if he acceprts her offer, she will scum read him for it and then vote the other person.

-Also, all the things I brought up day one about his game choice
-Also, also, his attempt to force the implo, baltar, imafin game felt contrived
-Also, also, also - him jumping to the gate, after I said that I did not think that town tanner would want the all bothers me.

Maybe I just conf biased myself, but looking back over his iso, I'm pretty sure he is scum.


imaginality

His 87 entrance is a mixed bag for me.

I like his question for toog. Like his response to me, and I like that he is advocating for us to not give up on implo's plan just because me and ari were locked in at that point.

But on the other hand, His response to numberQ felt forced, like he was looking for something to comment on. Not a fan of "any early reads" question at the top of page 2. I also don't like that he has an idea for how to sort the game, his nomination method, that he mentions but never brings it up again.


I like 159

Like the mech points in 172 about game resolution

Really don't liek 193. Combo of the shade at Ari and the linking up with Toog, both give me hives.

His back and forth with Tanner over the mix up, was... weird. But, I don't think that it happens with tanner/imaginality if they are s/s.

His Ari and Tanner S/S idea is also... weird. Not sure if it is scummy, but definitly weird.

283 is the best post of the game lol

I like 209

First person I fell like I have a less then definitive read on. Like, in a vacuum, I think I would lean scum here, slightly? But I also see a lot of interactions with Tanner that I dont think come from s/s, so that is helping him some from my pov.

So, null I guess?


Baltar

Baltar has some weird interactions with Tanner, where he first says he doesn't care where he goes, but then makes multiple posts about being in the same game with Tanner. Not really sure how to feel about that. Definitly worse if Tanner is town (one way to gurantee that the day 1 auto loss never happens is to get any townie to agree to go to the same place as you)

Huh, just saw in Baltar's iso that he asked implo about the scum chat before he posted it - did not realize when I was isoing implo since he did not post it as a response to baltar's question. That kinda undoes that little worry about implo pointing it out for us to see that he was being genuine.

Don't like

I kind of agree with Aris that first movers probably have +scum due to the simple fact scum have more direct incentive to move first.

In post 135, implosion wrote:
(and also... keep in mind that in that game scum moved 2nd yes, but the rest of the first 5 people to move were town)

My point is there is more likely to be a scum among the first movers due to the desire to prevent a lockout.

I agree first first mover is probably slightly +town.

Ari was actively trying to say I was scum for voting first, and he agreed with Ari (at the time only me and ari had voted in, so I doubt he thought ari was calling herself scum) - But immediately 180'ed to say that my vote was +town once he got push back on it. Which feels like one or both of those those thoughts were not genuine, and it does not feel like he was actually trying to sort me because he was not applying these thoughts to me, the actual first voter, he seemed to be talking about it in the abstract. Do not like.

His sudden strong town read on imaginality feels like it was pulled out of a hat.

257 does not make sense to me - I asked him about it (286), but he never responded :/

I feel like most of his iso leaves me feeling empty, little thoughts about him one way or another.

I want to say scum here. The early stuff with tanner would be weird for partners tho? Maybe distancing, but then they really did end up at the same place... hmm.

[/u]Reread verdict if there is no swap[/u]
I think it is Tanner. I don't feel great about either of the others, but I think it is just Tanner here.

But if either of the others swap out, then they are people I would give a second look over

Then we have this piece of scum theater.

Fake Tanner scum read that he uses to base all his other reads on.

Big surprise the read on imaginality read is a pile gray, formless porridge, while he shades me to he'll without having the guts to call me scum definitively.

[VP Baltar]

If I had any advice for the scum team this game, it is don't do giant reads lists people can refer back to after your flip is known.

[VP Baltar]

[/u]Reread verdict if there is no swap[/u]
Of these three, I think that DArby and numberQ end up cross voting and Toog decides.

I don't know how one even decides here tho...

Need to THONK if Luke would just open wolf on the least clear game and try to get his buddy deciding power though.

[Tanner]

I so bad want to provide commentary haha.

why didn't you provide commentary and what did you want to say?

[VP Baltar]

I so bad want to provide commentary haha.

why didn't you provide commentary and what did you want to say?

I was going to say at that point that Luke and Pav should cross vote with ari deciding, but that actually would have been pointless because Luke could have self hammered.

I don't think we took into account how fucking crazy the voting in the Keep is.

The reason I didn't say anything at that point is because I didn't want to influence the outcome of the game, or give someone an excuse if something shady went down. I figured town gets the most information when the action plays out purely with the players involved at that point.

[VP Baltar]

I don't think we took into account how fucking crazy the voting in the Keep is.

Seeing it play out, keep actually almost requires the two town to read each other correctly to win. That or scum voting town for some reason.

On paper it seems like the odds are 67%, but in reality they are much lower.

[VP Baltar]

btw who are we liking for the 3 scummiest thrown into Gate?

I think rn my too early list is:

1. numberQ
4. imaginality
6. Toogeloo

Do you have reasons for these, outside of post count? I have had no thoughts on either numberQ or imaginality, which is kind of a bad sign, but Toog I like Toog

This is actually a very interesting post combined with my read of imaginality's list. Scum luke is coming in to try and subtly flag off Ari's idea of putting scum imaginality with scum!NQ together if I'm right.

[VP Baltar]

but Toog I like Toog

can you spell this out for me?

also, i'm probably getting tunnelled, but i think i unironically want imaginality and baltar at the same location. these interactions bug me.

I liked his entry about being willing to float where ever for the games, when I would expect scum to be wanting to have some control over it. I also noticed that he did not lock into the keep, even through I kinda invited him to twice. And atm I am leaning town on Ari, so I would expect a scum player to be almost looking for a reason to take that last slot in the keep, and he just ignored me - both times lol. That would have been pretty good cover for him too I think, he already said he didn't care where he went, so he could just say he was following my suggestion. So unless I am just wrong on Ari, that is a pretty good +town for Toog imo.

I have also seen Toog get scum read for lower content, but I think that is just how he plays, so I was hoping Ari would tell me if they had suspicion for anything more then that.

Also, like, is this a post you'd make about your scumbuddy? Or rather, would you flat out invite your scumbuddy to the same game as you twice so they have to say no?

These seem like negative associatives with the RH9/toog slot.

[VP Baltar]

We don't have to get scum here, we just have to find town. This is easy and makes me think even more that Luke is scum, because I know he thinks (knows) he can look townier than me.

?

If you think Luke is scum why wouldn't you just vote for me?

Imaginality, what was the purpose of this question?

I feel like the answer was fairly clear given Ari's stances - They should never want themselves to get vote power, that is anti win con, and then they said that they thought I was town.

I guess, my point more is, why are you asking Ari this instead of talking about who

You

think should have the vote power?

This is classic scum softball theater.

What is the purpose of this question! Look how hard I'm being on you without actually being hard on you!

[VP Baltar]

Why did you shift from your 2-1-0 view to your 1-1-1 view?

My original assumption was it was all town at your location. The fact that no one shifted from there LEDs me to the more likely scenario of 1/1/1

you thought all three of imaginality, baltar, and tanner were town?

This also seems like an unlikely post if this is the team. What is the likelihood that scumLuke sees scumImaginality questioning scum!Toog and decides to jump in on it rather than let scumImaginality do his thing?

Again, feels like a negative associative for RH9 here.

[VP Baltar]

This is classic scum softball theater.

If you compare how Luke questions imaginality throughout the game to how he is questioning me (example, busting my chops over trying to claim town cred for proposing the sort), I think it is blatantly obvious who Luke is buddies with. There's no pressing on imaginality to try and expose contradictions or trip him up.

[VP Baltar]

Ok, I'm going to step back now.

It'd be cool if implo/RH9/numberQ had some thoughts on what the Luke flip means for their game.

[Tanner]

baltar, do you have an opinion on why luke decided to brute force the keep to flip first

[VP Baltar]

Is this whole VP-is-better-than-imag-at-1v1s thing like, public knowledge that I just didn't know or what.

I have no idea why Ari thinks this. I'm definitely not the type of player to ever quit a game, even if my odds of winning don't look good. So maybe that's what she means. I've never 1v1'ed imaginality, so I don't think there is any actual evidence I'm "better" than him at it.

[VP Baltar]

baltar, do you have an opinion on why luke decided to brute force the keep to flip first

A complete guess would be that he was trying to vote/unvote fast and lost on the draw? IDK, that's the only thing I could think of last night. It seemed rather silly. If I was scum in his situation, I would have just been patient. It seemed like Ari was going to pick him over Pav eventually. Maybe he just felt pressure to move because I was kind of hyping them to hurry up and do something? Definitely seemed like a mistake from my perspective.

[Tanner]

I was going to say at that point that Luke and Pav should cross vote with ari deciding, but that actually would have been pointless because Luke could have self hammered.

i still find it kinda wild that apparently, even after being in day 2 for like... 5? days? you still thought there's gonna be a cross-vote rather than someone self-hammering as soon as they get the chance.

like, i can't even say that this is ai, but like.

[Prism]

Note that today is New Year's Eve, and prod timers will be paused for the day. In accordance, numberQ has not yet been prodded.

I hope you all have had a great year to look back on, and have an even better one to look forward to. Enjoy the holiday!

[VP Baltar]

I was going to say at that point that Luke and Pav should cross vote with ari deciding, but that actually would have been pointless because Luke could have self hammered.

i still find it kinda wild that apparently, even after being in day 2 for like... 5? days? you still thought there's gonna be a cross-vote rather than someone self-hammering as soon as they get the chance.

like, i can't even say that this is ai, but like.

The amount of thought I put into the other games is very small. Ultimately, I don't have control over those. All I have to do to fulfill my win condition is show my towniness to you.

This isn't really the type of game I would have joined on my own because I don't care for mech heavy games too much, but you're here and so are other fun people.

[Tanner]

okay, i'm up to page 33 in my reread, and my current solve is "waiting for rh9 and numberq to do some goddamn analysis now that we have a scumflip so that i don't have to. and possibly bully implo into doing more"

my new year's eve >_>

[VP Baltar]

Just hammer and this game is over. You stress yourself out so much

[Tanner]

why does imaginality ic me when i said i'm scumreading him and townreading you? like i realize i fucked up massively on d1 by actually talking about it but why does he do that?

[numberQ]

jfc. I'm like 30 pages behind. I see there was a flip so today I'm going to try and at least look at associations before my NYE plans this evening. Sorry for the total lack of engagement on my end, just didn't expect this week to be so difficult for me to play in a fast paced game like this.

[VP Baltar]

why does imaginality ic me when i said i'm scumreading him and townreading you? like i realize i fucked up massively on d1 by actually talking about it but why does he do that?

My pet theory is the scum were boned by the player slottings. Implo is probably town and needed to be swapped with someone Luke stood a better chance against, so they couldn't switch at the gate. Our game had you leaning more town on me, and me saying I can definitely town read you. The IC choice would be a gamble either way. You're a more thorough player than me, but also much more paranoid. There's maybe some wiggle room there you make the wrong call through overthinking it. If I'm IC, there's a good chance I just get stubborn with a townread on you and refuse to change it.

[VP Baltar]

jfc. I'm like 30 pages behind. I see there was a flip so today I'm going to try and at least look at associations before my NYE plans this evening. Sorry for the total lack of engagement on my end, just didn't expect this week to be so difficult for me to play in a fast paced game like this.

If Luke is scum at the Keep, _____ is scum at the Wall.

Only question you need to answer.