Open 840 - Guardians of the Fortress [Game Over]

[RH9]

How do you know so much?

[implosion]

i've also decided to 180 my reads, since that's what's New and Hip. numberQ is clearly scum.

(i want to post this without anything else but I actually have started swaying this direction partially bc of the luke associative stuff and partially bc RH9's opinion changes are... well... i mean i still am not entirely sure about the sarcasm and that is genuinely making it hard to read >___> but if there isn't much then it's maybe townish to change so drastically in response to being challenged??? idk)

[VP Baltar]

sell me why this isn't your scumgame - without ate-y stuff

This isn't my scum game because:

A) I provided what I think was a very protown sort, which we now know forced scum Luke to, objectively, either face a tough game with a town implosion or force a suboptimal swap because there were two scum jammed together.

B) I have put myself out there on a limb this game with concrete read predictions that I can be held accountable for if I'm wrong. Ari is a good example of this. You can see I was suss of her off and on throughout the game, at times very certain I was right and at other times trying to engage and re-evaluate. This is basically true of my stance on all the players in the game except you and imaginality.

C) I honestly have fucked up understanding the mech of the game an embarrassing number of times. I would have more dignity as scum than to look like a complete dumbass so much.

D) you have apparently townpinged notably on a few things I never could have predicted would resonate with you.

E) Luke was legitimately coming after me several times and backing imaginality until you stated a town read of me clearly.

Tanner, what is not convincing about this? What can I tell you that will reassure you and we can end this madness?

[Tanner]

ah, i definitely knew that multifactorials are a thing that exists.

a) pro-town is nice, but in reality it's a pro-baltar slot. if you're town, you go with a person you have a somewhat good readrate on. if you're town, you get an opportunity to send me back into therapy. i can't really fault you for taking this route if you're town, after all i wanted to be selfish wrt the keep, but the truth is i did say i townread you on d1 and i became an ic by scum's choice on n1. and i have to take that into account.

b) i would want to reread your stuff to verify. it is true that you have engaged with a shit ton of things this game but i'm not sure if it's to the level fo unfakeable yet. it's like... you have been sorty and townie and all that but like. it's weird to say "i can be accountable for my reads" when this is a setup that we are playing.

c) i have seen heavy mechanical blunders from both sides so this isn't something i can take at face value

d) it's true, i don't think there's any way in hell you could have predicted that i would make a callback to that one (1) post in jungle oligarchy where you mentioned having notes, or that one (1) post in 2195 where you mentioned being labile in your reads as town. like, you would have to be a psychic for that. but the question remains that these might be traits of your game of mafia as a whole, and not necessarily town!indicative.

e) i mean, this is a setup where associates are very important to manipulate, and we can assume luke's associates with the rest of the gang are probably Good considering he forced his own flip first. but even ignoring all that, this is something i REALLY need to reread to see if that timeline holds up -- and frankly i have too much alcohol in my system right now for that

[Tanner]

if you're

scum*

, you get an opportunity to send me back into therapy.

this is the second time this game i miswrote "town" when i wanted to write "scum" wrt you, i wonder what my subconsciousness is trying to tell me

[VP Baltar]

Think of it this way, if I am duping you this badly, you would never trust me again. I wouldn't do that. Pls hammer imaginality. I won't be mad at you, but I'd be damn defeated if I put this much energy proving my townness and you save scumfuck imaginality

[Tanner]

I wouldn't do that.

yes you fucking would lmao i know you

[VP Baltar]

I wouldn't do that.

yes you fucking would lmao i know you

Nah. I wouldn't work this hard as scum

[VP Baltar]

I wouldn't do that.

yes you fucking would lmao i know you

Nah. I wouldn't work this hard as scum

Well that's probably not true, but still...

[VP Baltar]

I wish I could convey how agonizing it is to be town in this situation and have no idea what else I can say. Like just racking my brain constantly with what else to say and I have no clue.

[Tanner]

i mean, no matter your alignment, i am aware that it is not fun to deal with my lylo tantrums, so

[VP Baltar]

It's not your fault. I understand the pressure you're under. It's just like knowing the answer and screaming it from the treetops for 40 pages. I xam see the town win and I sound completely desperate because I'm out of ideas about what else I can do.

[VP Baltar]

xam = can

Very clear

[imaginality]

VP, your theory is Luke was trying a swift vote-unvote combo and got caught out, yep?

What exactly do you think Luke could have achieved with that?

[VP Baltar]

VP, your theory is Luke was trying a swift vote-unvote combo and got caught out, yep?

What exactly do you think Luke could have achieved with that?

Psyche out Pav into voting him by portraying Ari as a scumbutt out to vote herself? Idk. That's the only thing that occurred to me.

Why do you think he voted ari?

[imaginality]

So, under your theory:
1. Luke votes Ari
2. Luke unvotes
3. Ari self votes
4. Pav: look Ari voted herself, such scum
5. Pav votes Luke
6. Luke self votes

This fails at step 4 - the correct move for town or for scum is to self-hammer if possible. It doesn't do anything to heighten Pav's suspicion of Ari. If anything the fact she wasn't lurking ready to instavote herself might be painted as her being less likely to be scum.

So, the only thing that occurred to you wouldn't have achieved anything.

My theory as stated earlier: his vote was guaranteed to achieve the effect of freezing Ari's reads right when they were most beneficial to you. And with a side-chance of winning Keep if Pav was around to vote Luke before Ari self-voted.

[VP Baltar]

My theory as stated earlier: his vote was guaranteed to achieve the effect of freezing Ari's reads right when they were most beneficial to you.

I can't overstate how bad of a strategy this sounds. Why would scum risk losing a game when by all indications Ari was in favor of voting luke over Pav?

Like the optimal in your fantasy world is for Luke to win his game and then me to hammer on you today. It makes no sense to go down in some silly gambit that has no guarantee of working.

[VP Baltar]

Do you think that is a good scum strategy in this setup imaginality?

[implosion]

This fails at step 4 - the correct move for town or for scum is to self-hammer if possible. It doesn't do anything to heighten Pav's suspicion of Ari. If anything the fact she wasn't lurking ready to instavote herself might be painted as her being less likely to be scum.

You wrote step 4 wrong - it should say "Pav: look Luke voted someone other than himself, such town". And step 3 doesn't need to be there.

[imaginality]

My theory as stated earlier: his vote was guaranteed to achieve the effect of freezing Ari's reads right when they were most beneficial to you.

I can't overstate how bad of a strategy this sounds. Why would scum risk losing a game when by all indications Ari was in favor of voting luke over Pav?

Like the optimal in your fantasy world is for Luke to win his game and then me to hammer on you today. It makes no sense to go down in some silly gambit that has no guarantee of working.

I didn't say it was a smart move. But it seems like the only rational explanation for it. The alternatives all assume Luke is either a complete fool or a game thrower.

It seems an unnecessary risk to me too, but unless you can come up with a better alternative explanation...

And incidentally we* can't be sure Luke had that read on Ari of her genuinely being ready to vote him. We also know for sure Pav had recently said he was on the fence and would want to poll everyone before he voted.

*we being town. You can be sure if he said so in the scum PT I guess.

[imaginality]

This fails at step 4 - the correct move for town or for scum is to self-hammer if possible. It doesn't do anything to heighten Pav's suspicion of Ari. If anything the fact she wasn't lurking ready to instavote herself might be painted as her being less likely to be scum.

You wrote step 4 wrong - it should say "Pav: look Luke voted someone other than himself, such town". And step 3 doesn't need to be there.

I was responding to VP's post before about Ari being scum out to vote herself.

Your revised version fits with my view that Luke was open to that happening but also made the play worthwhile because of freezing the reads. Like how in Poker it might be a bad play to draw to a flush but if you also have straight possibilities it can shift the odds enough to make it a good play.

[VP Baltar]

It seems an unnecessary risk to me too, but unless you can come up with a better alternative explanation...

Why did you ask me about it then? If you agree your theory is just as bad as mine, what exactly was the point of the question?

[VP Baltar]

We also know for sure Pav had recently said he was on the fence and would want to poll everyone before he voted.

What do you think the overall outcome of that poll would have been?

This is why your theory is so bad. Much worse than mine. It was very clear luke was overall in a good position to win that game. I can read the room that much. It made zero actual sense what he did, so asking me for a plausible reason is silky theater.

[VP Baltar]

Who do you think is scum at the wall imaginality?

[imaginality]

It seems an unnecessary risk to me too, but unless you can come up with a better alternative explanation...

Why did you ask me about it then? If you agree your theory is just as bad as mine, what exactly was the point of the question?

My theory has added value (read freezing) that yours doesn't. Making a more plausible explanation