Open 840 - Guardians of the Fortress [Game Over]

[imaginality]

We also know for sure Pav had recently said he was on the fence and would want to poll everyone before he voted.

What do you think the overall outcome of that poll would have been?

This is why your theory is so bad. Much worse than mine. It was very clear luke was overall in a good position to win that game. I can read the room that much. It made zero actual sense what he did, so asking me for a plausible reason is silky theater.

The overall result of the poll is it would have taken more time to conduct, during which time there would have been the chance for the dynamics between you/me/Ari to have shifted again.

[imaginality]

Who do you think is scum at the wall imaginality?

If you're not reading my posts no wonder you think this should be an easy decision for Tanner.

[VP Baltar]

We also know for sure Pav had recently said he was on the fence and would want to poll everyone before he voted.

What do you think the overall outcome of that poll would have been?

This is why your theory is so bad. Much worse than mine. It was very clear luke was overall in a good position to win that game. I can read the room that much. It made zero actual sense what he did, so asking me for a plausible reason is silky theater.

The overall result of the poll is it would have taken more time to conduct, during which time there would have been the chance for the dynamics between you/me/Ari to have shifted again.

Ok yeah sure. I can't believe scum would play this badly.

[VP Baltar]

If yall intentionally tanked the keep as a way to smear me, that is so desperate and poorly planned. The logic you're putting forward makes no sense.

[imaginality]

If I were scum I would be banking on Keep and hoping on Wall, not ditching Keep. The move doesn't make sense with me as scum with how the reads and interactions were at the time. There's benefit to it if you're scum.

Another analogy, if you're ahead in a chess game you might sacrifice some material to trade into a simpler endgame rather than stay in middle game longer where there's more scope for tactical surprises and reversals of fortune.

To be clear, I think Luke misjudged it, I suspect he probably didn't think it would come across as dramatic as it has, which has led to this speculation about the real motive behind it. But if you say my explanation wasn't a factor then it's much more of a misjudgement and I think given how Luke's played, that seems more implausible than my theory.

[RH9]

numberQ, want a reaction test. I

[RH9]

implosion, you can do the reaction test too, if you want.

[VP Baltar]

If I were scum I would be banking on Keep and hoping on Wall, not ditching Keep.

Lol this is literally what I just said and you're acting like this was your thought.

If I was scum, Luke wouldn't have done that shit and I would just win the gate. Wall would be the back up.

It's very obvious you are reaching for a smear on me because yall tried some silly shit that didn't work out. A VP scum team wouldn't have needed a silly gambit at all. That's what is ridiculous about what you're saying. It's completely unnecessary in a scenario where Luke was likely to win the keep and Tanner had indicated he was leaning VP town.

You can talk about chess and poker and whatever, but that simply wasn't the game state at the time. You're talking about fantasy.

[imaginality]

You tried your hardest to win Gate as scum but Tanner wouldn't hammer.

Tanner's continued indecision despite your best efforts to make him hammer me made your buddy Luke panic. Luke thought he'd better take out Ari before she not only solves you for the second time and shifts Tanner into deciding you're scum, but also figures out what you're up to at the Wall.

If I were scum Luke wouldn't throw Keep because he sees it's likely I lose Gate. Luke wins Keep, I probably go down against you at Gate, and then it's down to my buddy at Wall. And who's my buddy? I don't have one, I'm town. I already told Tanner who I think yours is, I don't need to tell you who it is because you can just look at your role PM to see.

[RH9]

You tried your hardest to win Gate as scum but Tanner wouldn't hammer.

Tanner's continued indecision despite your best efforts to make him hammer me made your buddy Luke panic. Luke thought he'd better take out Ari before she not only solves you for the second time and shifts Tanner into deciding you're scum, but also figures out what you're up to at the Wall.

If I were scum Luke wouldn't throw Keep because he sees it's likely I lose Gate. Luke wins Keep, I probably go down against you at Gate, and then it's down to my buddy at Wall. And who's my buddy? I don't have one, I'm town. I already told Tanner who I think yours is, I don't need to tell you who it is because you can just look at your role PM to see.

Please remind me when you mentioned a possible candidate for the buddy of Baltar. It might help remind Baltar and Tanner too.

[imaginality]

If yall intentionally tanked the keep as a way to smear me, that is so desperate and poorly planned. The logic you're putting forward makes no sense.

There's no way a scum team would come up with the plan of tanking Keep to make it look like a scum team had come up with the plan of immediately resolving Keep to help you. That's nonsense on stilts.

I don't necessarily think it was a whole team Plan for why Luke did this, more likely he did it without waiting for your okay, which is probably part of why you're so annoyed about how illogical it was.

[imaginality]

@RH9: VP Baltar doesn't need reminding who his buddy is.
But for you and Tanner, I shared my thoughts on it in post 1654

[imaginality]

@Tanner:

The stress got to Luke. He saw you procrastinating, he saw Ari being smart digging into everything, and he made a play he thought would best control the outcomes. The motivation for his vote was well-hidden but like those 3D pictures, once you see it it is the only way the random dots make sense. Luke isn't a game thrower.

This is the first big scum mistake all game. Let's make them pay for it. I know you probably still doubt me but we won Keep so you're not betting the whole game on listening to me about this.

Anyhow, if you do still decide to vote me I can't complain, I know my post style is a bit waffly (as town or as scum) and VP has played well. I can hope that my town flip means you go on to win at Wall. But I do think at least, you need to have a better explanation for Luke's vote before you vote me. Because I think I've solved this game.

[RH9]

Ok, I'm going to step back now.

It'd be cool if implo/RH9/numberQ had some thoughts on what the Luke flip means for their game.

Missed this earlier. I think that Lukewarm's interactions with implosion feels like he was treating implosion better than numberQ and me. Lukewarm described numberQ as 'empty', 'feels off', 'first three posts all feel like nothing posts' and that his 'progression [from 335 and 361] feels weird'. Meanwhile, Lukewarm considered my predecessor as a townlean but considered that their ISO 'feels a little more barren on an iso-read vs a real time read'. (Also, he used a pronoun which is not the one Toogeloo prefers.) However, when I start showing that I SR him, he reacts badly. Read 1093, 1101, 1104, 1106, 1113, 1138, 1150, 1151, 1153, 1213, 1216, 1217, 1218, 1229, 1337, 1342, 1351, 1352 and 1353. He literally changes from townleaning my slot to what he saying that my entrance made him 'want to yeet' me 'into the sun'. He accused me of being 'buddy buddy' to implosion, while he was doing the exact same thing. And he said this exact statement in 1351.

Every time he posts, I lean more and more on him being scum

[RH9]

@RH9: VP Baltar doesn't need reminding who his buddy is.
But for you and Tanner, I shared my thoughts on it in post 1654

Thanks for the reminder. So you think that implosion is likely scum while Baltar thinks that it's likely numberQ?

[RH9]

Also, I suddenly realised that in a response to Baltar intending to share my thoughts on numberQ and implosion, quickly lead to me talking about Lukewarm's treatment of me.

[RH9]

And half of my post was just me throwing a selfpity party.

[RH9]

By the way, Tanner, imaginality and Baltar, feel free to do my reaction test if you want.

[VP Baltar]

By the way, Tanner, imaginality and Baltar, feel free to do my reaction test if you want.

What is the test you want to happen?

[VP Baltar]

If I were scum Luke wouldn't throw Keep because he sees it's likely I lose Gate. Luke wins Keep, I probably go down against you at Gate, and then it's down to my buddy at Wall. And who's my buddy? I don't have one, I'm town. I already told Tanner who I think yours is, I don't need to tell you who it is because you can just look at your role PM to see.

I thought you said Luke couldn't win the keep? Regardless of which of us is scum, he was either in a good position to win it or not. My stance is he was and you all either intentionally tanked it as a gamble for the gate and wall, or he just straight fucked up.

Your stance was, previously, luke was going to lose the gate and the tide was turning on me so he got desperate. You all fundamentally misread the gamestate out of scum fear and that's what you're projecting in this theory. You don't get to say that and then also say if you're scum, Luke would be correctly reading the room and would have won. That's trying to state it both ways.

As far as who is your buddy, I've already laid out a decent case of associatives between you/Luke/NQ.

[VP Baltar]

Imaginality is also not actually scumhunting. He doesn't look at Luke upon flip and try to evaluate his posts. He simply says "implosion is the least likely to be limped, therefore he is scum"....which.

There's so much hand waving in your posts. You say the VP/Luke/implo scum team sacrificed the Keep because they are likely to win the Gate and the Wall. But why not just win the Keep and have much better odds overall? If scum were correctly reading the game state at that point, that's what they would have done. Instead, yall buckled under the heat of Tanner leaning against you, and Luke tried to pull off whatever terrible move yall concocted. It backfired, and now you're trying to serve up some wild theory about how losing was actually a good move for the scum team....it's complete silliness.

You're right that I don't have a good answer for why yall did what you did because it makes no sense. It was a move made under pressure. And the simple answer here is who was more likely to feel under pressure at that point knowing Luke's alignment was going to be revealed? The VP-Luke-implo scum team you are proposing or the Imaginality-Luke-NQ scum team I've proposed?

[VP Baltar]

And happy new year everyone! (Even you scumbutts)

[Tanner]

good

morning

evening, what fresh hell have you scumfucks prepared for me this time

[Tanner]

here's another thought - maybe luke didn't think his scumflip would help win the other two games. maybe he thought somebody else's scumflip would have tanked his odds of winning the keep.

bah, i still need to reread this shit

[Tanner]

He simply says "implosion is the least likely to be limped, therefore he is scum"....which.

... You say the VP/Luke/implo scum team sacrificed the Keep because they are likely to win the Gate and the Wall. But why not just win the Keep and have much better odds overall?

this has me thinking. maybe we're overly focusing on the gate. maybe luke's scumflip helps somebody else. implo isn't likely to be limped, sure, but he was already likely to win the wall anyway if he's scum.

did anyone else notice how weird luke and toog/rh9 relations are this game? like, luke started off townreading toog and straight up inviting him to the keep which he obviously refused if he's scum. okay. then toog got sick and disappeared from the game. fine.

then rh9 replaced in, and whoooo boy. first he made a readslist where his ONE AND ONLY scumread is luke. like. isn't that just a bit odd?? and his reasons for scumreading luke were??? ? ?? ? ? ? and then luke starts going how he really REALLY wants to suddenly yeet rh9?? and then he just fucking goes and commits scooter ankle at the keep?