Holiday Dance Party ---- Game Over

[RH9]

I'm frustrated. Shiro is the only misread that didn't AtE me and I confbiased on him being scum.

Don't worry. It was only a mistake.

[RH9]

I am suddenly scared that Alyssa is scum but I want to wait a bit longer before deciding if I should leave.

[GuiltyLion]

well I was hoping to muster up more energy to like, Really Care, but I haven't been able to do that yet today (hangover certainly isn't helping...)

happy New Year to you all btw!!

I think my main thought here at the moment is like,

assuming Datisi is town

(which I think he is), I think it's better to take a shot in one of the pairs prior to Taly leaving. There'd be guaranteed scum in one of them and I think Ydra would be easier to sort correctly if you had the third member of the scumteam flipped rather than trying to bet the game on her alignment solely based on marci/Andante.

I'm kinda worried the deepwolf is Smart, I'd be curious to understand whether/why Alyssa has him at locktown still. If he's scum he's played a tremendous game but when the game starts feeling really difficult like this it means whoever is scum is playing a tremendous game and I still still still kinda feel some kind of way about Cabd's catboi read, especially knowing now that catboi was town.

I want to review Smart's associatives but haven't done that yet. and if it's not Smart I could see it being Galron. The thing I'm worried about is both pairs being T-S and Ydra miselim being the game loser

[GuiltyLion]

I said this in the PT and Datisi corroborated it a couple pages ago, but I feel I actually have the best town!case for Alyssa of all the players remaining? Obviously I'd look like a massive idiot if I'm wrong but I think if she powerbussed Andante she basically made the game way harder for herself than it needed to be at that point (again assuming Datisi town), and I kinda buy the reasoning for limming Shiro/HQ yesterday as that would be the pair most likely to become impossible to lim if there was scum in it.

The only way I see scum!Alyssa is if her partner is RH9 and she's like totally banking on endgaming as a pair, but that feels pretty unlikely overall and I don't think RH9's play vibes that way

[Alyssa The Lamb]

how funny would it be if we decide to delay today to think things through more

and then RH9 suddenly becomes sure I'm scum, leaves, and we flip TvT

[GuiltyLion]

btw I do not envy you Taly. this game is hard and unless Datisi flips scum will continue to remain hard

[Alyssa The Lamb]

idk if I feel like I need to throw out all of my reads yet

tbh I've actually been feeling that maybe my pre-dance reads were the strongest they've been

[Alyssa The Lamb]

I helpfully posted my reads in the beginning of my PT with RH9 when the dance started

Firebringer

(Town) +

Andante

(Null)

Taly

(Town) + Ydrasse (Hidden)

Save The Dragons

(Null) +

Titus

(Town)

Marcistar

(Scumlean) +

NorwegianBoyEE

(Scumlean)
Datisi (Town) + GuiltyLion (Town)
RH9 (Townlean) +

Alyssa The Lamb

(Town)

Shiro

(Townlean) +

Harley Quinn

(Scumlean)
Galron (Scumlean) + Something_Smart (Town)

[RH9]

Alyssa, you are voting Datisi/GL which contradicts with your pre-dance reads which you claim to be the strongest they've been. I'm guessing that your pre-dance reads of Datisi and GL is currently not applicable.

[RH9]

btw I do not envy you Taly. this game is hard and unless Datisi flips scum will continue to remain hard

Why does scum!Datisi make the game hard?

[Alyssa The Lamb]

yes my vote has not changed

[Taly]

I think you're awesome and will still think that even if we lose.

What makes you feel something's wrong?

I proposed the initial leave order believing that

Shiro/HQ

contained scum. The less cohesive their game viewpoints became told me they were very likely different alignments.

But since that premise and assumption are both incorrect, I'm in a very poor position to discern the 2 final scum between

aly/rh9/taly/ydra/ss/galron

if

Dat/GL

is T/T.

On one hand

Ydrasse

is more comfortable with keeping

Dat/GL

around over

Aly/RH9

which aligned with

Shiro's

POV
On the other, I can't help but wonder if

Titus'

reads alone were why her pair was NKed, if I really were T/T with

Ydra

, there's certainly a deepwolf if not both wolves in

aly/rh9/ss/galron

.

Independently though, I kinda feel like the perception of my alignment is kinda important at this stage so I'll engage into it

Main thing about it is how would you all expect me to approach this game from a scum pm? I can prove how I approach it with a town pm but I can't atm

Similar to what you're doing now tbh, you seem comfortable eliminating pairs that are unlikely to break up. While this does hold town to a standard of critically evaluating their partner, I see the counter argument in that this erodes townblocs and it seems convenient for you with a scum wincon to vie for the current yeet whether they're misses or bussing another player.

i'm worthless this game

Add a bit more than this?

I said this in the PT and Datisi corroborated it a couple pages ago, but I feel I actually have the best town!case for Alyssa of all the players remaining? Obviously I'd look like a massive idiot if I'm wrong but I think if she powerbussed Andante she basically made the game way harder for herself than it needed to be at that point (again assuming Datisi town), and I kinda buy the reasoning for limming Shiro/HQ yesterday as that would be the pair most likely to become impossible to lim if there was scum in it.

The only way I see scum!Alyssa is if her partner is RH9 and she's like totally banking on endgaming as a pair, but that feels pretty unlikely overall and I don't think RH9's play vibes that way

Can you give the exact quotes from

Aly's

ISO that lead you to this conclusion?

[Alyssa The Lamb]

Similar to what you're doing now tbh, you seem comfortable eliminating pairs that are unlikely to break up. While this does hold town to a standard of critically evaluating their partner, I see the counter argument in that this erodes townblocs and it seems convenient for you with a scum wincon to vie for the current yeet whether they're misses or bussing another player.

okay, but would I create this specific gamestate in the first place?

[Taly]

Similar to what you're doing now tbh, you seem comfortable eliminating pairs that are unlikely to break up. While this does hold town to a standard of critically evaluating their partner, I see the counter argument in that this erodes townblocs and it seems convenient for you with a scum wincon to vie for the current yeet whether they're misses or bussing another player.

okay, but would I create this specific gamestate in the first place?

I don't know what you're comfortable with as scum. Why wouldn't you want this gamestate?

[Alyssa The Lamb]

I'd still like to point out that we had a scenario where a known TvT pair was under an insane amount of pressure for a long period of time, with a player inside of it that can easily disrupt town for the rest of the game

it's also relatively simple to eliminate that pairing in first dance, because I would have gone out of my way to set it up in the first place

I had a prime chance to remove the pairing that had next to zero odds of ever turning on each other

...yet I bussed my partner instead, knowing that it was very likely going to cause Firebringer to leave

also simultaneously after throwing my other partner in marcistar under the bus in first dance

[Alyssa The Lamb]

me being scum also pretty naturally follows that I bussed Andante and then instructed her to try to kill the Titus/STD pairing, then killed that pairing immediately afterwards

[Taly]

Yeah, I haven't seen you do something like this as scum.

[Alyssa The Lamb]

simultaneously, I am well aware of the following:

1. I am notoriously hard to read for a lot of people on this website
2. I have burden of proficiency attached to my name, so the fact is that there's likely to be paranoia on me when I start pushing down TvT slots, especially after explicitly being correct on 2/2 pairings in first dance having scum within it
3. I can't truly ever be sure what Ydrasse's place in the game is, since I can never be quite sure what you are thinking of her
4. SS/Galron has been the most floated endgame TvT pairing for a long while now, while I had been setting up the Titus/STD pairing to die in second dance

[Ydrasse]

shower thoughts from earlier were that if gl/dats are t/t this game's been imploding townwise for a long long time and i dont think scum had to do a lot to really egg on anything to happen since everyone was being sets of stubborn asses so looking back and people who haven't really uh. had really big stances at any point probably are just scum (rh9/galron)

like i still can't get over galron trying to reaction test his own partner in the pt for like minimal/no reason and then not even talking about it until he was prodded to do so lol and then rh9 being wishywashy and not committing to anything really and wanting more time but just kind of. there.

i kinda think that everyone who voted out shiro/hq was town

[Alyssa The Lamb]

so if I'm bussing two of my scumpartners immediately, I have to have a damn good reason for it and to be certain that I can keep RH9 in my pocket, because all my work in fooling everybody else is irrelevant if I can't even prevent my own partner from leaving

that's the thing about this setup, you can't ever truly know what endgame is going to look like when the pairings are all fucked up like this, so it's easily way safer to play to have as many endgame options as possible

[Alyssa The Lamb]

shower thoughts from earlier were that if gl/dats are t/t this game's been imploding townwise for a long long time and i dont think scum had to do a lot to really egg on anything to happen since everyone was being sets of stubborn asses so looking back and people who haven't really uh. had really big stances at any point probably are just scum (rh9/galron)

like i still can't get over galron trying to reaction test his own partner in the pt for like minimal/no reason and then not even talking about it until he was prodded to do so lol and then rh9 being wishywashy and not committing to anything really and wanting more time but just kind of. there.

i kinda think that everyone who voted out shiro/hq was town

blunt honesty?

I can very easily see this being true

[Ydrasse]

also gonna be real

i am an insanely selfish scum player and i wouldnt pair with an ic because that makes my wincon way harder and the competitive little gremlin inside of me wouldnt stand for "Get thing done fast as possible or you suck" which is like. this isnt gonna do it for people but i genuinely cannot think of anything more apt to describe why im town other than calling myself a dumbass a la slaughter hour reads

[Taly]

My

Ydra

progression began with a townread that has all but changed through various levels of confidence

It initially began because I don't think

Ydra

sets herself up for late-game WIFOM or challenge as scum. It's not something she'd want to deal with nor would she believe to survive through it.

We proceeded to build a PT that is now about 10 pages long with her dwarfing my post count. None of her posts seem overtly intent to control my perception or manipulate a scenario. If anything, she has mindmelded with me at some points or at least understood where I came from on a read or scenario.

And I don't think

Ydra

waltzes into the thread right now and says

"I'm worthless"

when it doesn't seem like it will take a lot to dissuade suspicion on her given the current gamestate.

[Alyssa The Lamb]

I have a proposition for you Taly

if you can ever be confident about a townread on Ydrasse, we just nuke every other pairing

[Taly]

I have a proposition for you Taly

if you can ever be confident about a townread on Ydrasse, we just nuke every other pairing

I like this plan

The biggest thing that vexes me is... if

Ydra's

town, why are we still alive?