Holiday Dance Party ---- Game Over

[Alyssa The Lamb]

because the read expressions on Ydrasse were all negative and leaving your pairing alive heightens the paranoia, which means your slot leaving is very likely a gimme TvT flip

[Alyssa The Lamb]

btw when you have a game that seems hard like this, find a way to break it down into something simple and it looks way more manageable

[Taly]

The scumteam couldn't have predicted that

Ydra/Taly

would still be a potential endgame pair?

[Taly]

I mean, I practically crumbed that pairing with me was a death warrant for any other player so

[Taly]

This is the most simplified approach to this game right now. Brute forcing my initial read on

Ydrasse

to be correct and winning.

[Alyssa The Lamb]

I mean

Shiro+HQ probably never dies, at least it would be very rare; if this pairing is a threat, then it's way safer to kill off a pairing that is actively defending it
Datisi+GL never dies
Me+RH9 dies in some scenarios where RH9 is town, probably, but there is inherent value in keeping this pairing alive since RH9 has mostly garnered negative reads on him
SS+Galron might die if there's no good kills, it's probably the most likely pairing to just be arbitrarily turned on
Titus+STD and Taly/Ydra have very similar traits, where STD/Ydra are both viable reasons to kill off their specific pairings and you/Titus both are players that are most likely to pull town together in second half

so basically I think that 80+% of scenarios are your pairing or Titus' pairing dying for that reason alone

[Alyssa The Lamb]

I honestly could see the STD push and subsequent Titus/STD kill to be just really sloppy implementation of whatever they were trying to do

it just doesn't feel like it was planned very well

[Taly]

lmao this is such a unique dance game regardless of how this ends.

[Alyssa The Lamb]

this is the second dance game where I reached late game with a partner that nobody thinks is town

[Alyssa The Lamb]

only difference is I'm not actually townreading RH9 and therefore if he's town and we endgame, the entire dead thread doesn't get to eat shit this time

[Taly]

do you think

ydra

is town?

[Alyssa The Lamb]

I actually am townreading her atm

[Taly]

Haha, this is great. S-tier conversation,

Alyssa

.

I'd prefer Ydrasse and I to be the final pair standing.

There are some special conditions that give this statement a hidden asterisk, but I won't say.

[Taly]

Let's start flipping.

[Taly]

nighties

<3

[Alyssa The Lamb]

Should i leave now

[Something_Smart]

Taly, I can't speak to anything that happened in the PT, but I still feel like it's pretty unlikely that the scumteam would leave your pair alive if it's T/T. That would risk you coming out with a townread on Ydrasse, which would pretty much singlehandedly lose scum the game if they didn't have a S/S pairing.

Especially since the pair that died was STD/Titus, not a universally townread pair, or even the most townread pair overall. It may be that scum really wanted Titus dead... but Titus scumread Ydrasse, so that points back to her anyway.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

VoteCount 2.5

Taly - Ydrasse [0] -
Datisi - GuiltyLion [3] - Alyssa the Lamb, Taly, Galron
RH9 - Alyssa the Lamb [1] - Datisi
Galron - Something_Smart [0] -

Not Voting [4]

RH9, Ydrasse, GuiltyLion, Something_Smart,

With 8 alive it takes 5 votes to execute

.

Countdown to deadline: (expired on 2022-01-08 02:00:00)

[Taly]

I should've trolled the shit out of the scumteam

Been like "I'm always leaving at 10p if I make it" and then be like "SIKE, BITCHES!"

[Taly]

Should i leave now

Hard to say, how comfortable do you feel leaving this game in someone else's hands?

My paranoia of you has drastically reduced if that helps your decision.

Taly, I can't speak to anything that happened in the PT, but I still feel like it's pretty unlikely that the scumteam would leave your pair alive if it's T/T. That would risk you coming out with a townread on Ydrasse, which would pretty much singlehandedly lose scum the game if they didn't have a S/S pairing.

Especially since the pair that died was STD/Titus, not a universally townread pair, or even the most townread pair overall. It may be that scum really wanted Titus dead... but Titus scumread Ydrasse, so that points back to her anyway.

I'm very aware that this is still a possibility. But

Aly

made a sound consideration imo: scum likely predicted that I'd leave. Thinking of the game in this context weakens the WIFOM of my survival. Why would they kill

Titus

to protect scum-

Ydra

late game if it didn't matter? If I would leave anyway?

This assertion implies that

Titus

wasn't killed for her solve on

Ydrasse

. So even in a

Ydra

-scum world, my NKA doesn't point to a 100%

Titus

solve.

It's very easy to see why scum would be comfortable keeping

Ydra/I

alive T/T since people somewhat ignored my protection on

Ydrasse

in First Dance and because I always played up the narrative that I would never endgame.

So the assumption I gain here is that

Ydra

is scum serving a deeper wolf or

Ydra

is town in the death of a potentially town losing T/T lim. I've yet to figure a potential deepwolf.

But I do have two prompts that seem more useful to consider now

Do you townread

Ydrasse

?
Which pair do you both think most likely contains scum and leaves?

[Datisi]

ok i'm gonna do sometning else

VOTE: s_s

over the last few page, i've gotten this feeling that whenever i try to bring up something new to shake up the gamestate, s_s is there to kinda like, shut me down. and similarly with the taly's proposal of him/ydra endgaming, here's there to talk about how scum never leaves the t/t ic pair alive etc etc. but he's there to just shut down ideas, he doesn't really present any of his own or how he wants the game to go. which kinda gives the vibe of "scum who is in a good position gamestate-wise and wants to keep it that way"

[Taly]

Also, even if

Titus/Dragons

were run up.

They were the most townread pair by me, the IC.

And my tilt wasn't quiet when that pair was wagoned.

Not out of the question that they wanted to rattle me by keeping me alive under these conditions.

[Alyssa The Lamb]

I'm kinda in a state where I don't think I can ever be sure about RH9 to ever be comfortable endgaming

[Something_Smart]

and similarly with the taly's proposal of him/ydra endgaming, here's there to talk about how scum never leaves the t/t ic pair alive etc etc.

I have been arguing this since the beginning of second dance...

[Datisi]

i am aware, in the world i proposed, scum!you would be banking on the fact people start paranoia-ing the ic pair...?