Open 840 - Guardians of the Fortress [Game Over]

[imaginality]

it's past 1 am, and the past... 3 hours i have been doing literally anything i can to procrastinate this game. but, i've just noticed something... weird.

And another quick thing. I wasn't in favour of DArby joining me and VP so that speculation about both me and VP wanting that was a big waste of time.
I proposed Toogeloo as the third in post 275 and then argued against DArby and for Tanner being the third in post 314. On the other hand VP initially proposed DArby as the third and only said 'maybe swap DArby for Tanner' so it's not like Tanner was his first pick for the third slot.

And as I mentioned in my wall, remember also VP was aiming for me, him, DArby at the Wall so if DArby is town I think DArby was the intended mislim for that mini game.

this was imag discussing my "both imag and vp wanted imag/vp/darby, we know there's 1 scum in imag/darby, therefore darby is probably town because scum wouldn't be buddying 2 of themselves together". imag dismissed my idea, but not because talk is cheap, because he did not want darby with the two of them.

now, town!imag would know that vp is scum, so even if he found my idea bad because imag didn't want darby there... shouldn't he still find darby town from it? because from his pov, he has scum!vp arranging a trip of vp/imag/darby. yet that's not really the conclusion.

That was me discussing things from an objective viewpoint in relation to you saying you could draw conclusions either way about Pav because me and VP both wanted him in our game.

And as an aside I wouldn't place much weight on scum trying to get 111 rather than 210. 210 is a little more limiting but still avoids the 300 scenario scum want to avoid.

This seems very plausibly like buddies not wanting any connections between them. Note also that VP's proposed setup always had numberQ in a different game to him.
...
numberQ and Toogeloo both look very plausible as buddies. VP had both numberQ and Toogeloo at a separate location to himself so I don't think we can distinguish between them that way

due to these parts of the wall in 971, you can't argue that imaginality didn't believe in "scum!vp could be purposefully putting buddies together", since he used the arguments of "vp wanted these players at different locations than himself" as +scum points.

My point was they weren't different in that respect so whether you see it as +scum or not, it doesn't help us decide between them

I'd also note here that VP first proposed me+him+DArby/Pav, Tanner was just listed as an alternative. And from a scum!VP perspective DArby/Pav is very much mislim bait if town. So if DArby/Pav is town, VP's first option was what he himself says is a 'way easier scenario' and his backup option was a player who he knows will town read him for being at the same location. Flipping Keep first will confirm if DArby/Pav is town or not.

in this post, imag once again talks about the fact that vp wanted a vp/imag/darby location. he even proposes to flip the keep first to see. but like, shouldn't the logical conclusion from town!imag's pov here be that vp was trying to put two townies with himself??

As mentioned above I don't think scum have to try hard to get 111 here unless the 210 really screws them in the setup they can't swap.
The above post was to point out that VP said having DArby would have been an easier scenario than having you with him and i pointed out that yeah, he actually tried to have DArby (who we know now is town) with him.

I feel surest about Ari being town and Luke has said he thinks Ari's town so if it's entirely my call I'd get Luke to vote Ari.
If we do the 'get the scummiest player to choose who to vote' thing I'd get Pav to choose between the other two.

because, imag sure did not advocate for voting pav in the keep.

I saw some stuff making me think Pav was scum some stuff making me think he was town.both luke and especially Ari looked more town than Pav so i wanted Pav to have vote control. I don't see what's odd about that position?

like, i know i might be confbiasing here, but this kind of feels like scum who was, at the same time, using the arguments "vp didn't want to go to the same location as these players" to be +scum points, while somehow never making the connection that "vp wanted to go to the same location as this player" to be a +town point. there were like, at least 2 opportunities for that connection to be made. yet it wasn't made. because town!pav was supposed to be the "toss this yeetbaity slot at the keep, nobody is ever going to be voting him lmao" townie?

See above for the nuance/context. I probably have tunnelled a bit on finding objective reasons to prove VP is scum and if I've missed some implication about one of the other players that's slack on my part, but I'm not trying to deliberately have it both ways.

[imaginality]

at some point is not now

this is my method of dealing with all of my life problems and it's turned out fine

Mood

[Tanner]

I don't see what's odd about that position?

it's not odd to think pav was scum - i think every townie thought that at some point.

my issue is that the language you're using in 971 about nq and toog seems to imply that they are +scum because vp (confirmed scum from your pov) did not want to be in the same game with them. which, if you were working on the assumption that scum would be trying to achieve a 1-1-1 split at the time, is a logical conclusion.

however, when you're faced with information that vp wanted an imag/vp/pav game, you don't bring up that, by the virtue of vp being scum and you being town, that makes pav town. by the same logic, it should. it doesn't matter that you wouldn't consider that to be a strong point - it's completely omitted from your view of the game.

and the issue is that the above is REALLY convenient if pav was moved to keep as the "obvscum" slot that was never getting voted.

[imaginality]

it's gotten to the point where this is some vile shit if you're scum here lmfao

That's what I have been saying!

Getting buddied is always a painful way to lose.

[implosion]

But what does scum!Luke gain from going after scum!RH9 so hard? Luke was in the hardest game for scum to win, and RH9 is in the easiest game for scum to win. Not sure it really makes for scum!Luke to work on trading those odds.

If I was scum in the Keep I'd probably just consider it a lost cause and do my best to muddy associations. And my final thought for now is, wait, is that literally what Luke did and I'm falling for it?

I'm not sure why you're asking this question when you answer it immediately at the start of the next paragraph?

But moreso this post has no real conclusions in it; saying that Luke went after RH9 so if RH9 is scum he'd have to be bussing pretty hard but maybe he was doing it to muddy associations... is... all true. What's your conclusion from it? Is the conclusion that RH9 is town because Luke wasn't bussing, or that RH9 is scum because Luke was bussing?

We're at the point in the game where we need to be making conclusions, not just stating facts.

[imaginality]

I don't see what's odd about that position?

it's not odd to think pav was scum - i think every townie thought that at some point.

my issue is that the language you're using in 971 about nq and toog seems to imply that they are +scum because vp (confirmed scum from your pov) did not want to be in the same game with them. which, if you were working on the assumption that scum would be trying to achieve a 1-1-1 split at the time, is a logical conclusion.

however, when you're faced with information that vp wanted an imag/vp/pav game, you don't bring up that, by the virtue of vp being scum and you being town, that makes pav town. by the same logic, it should. it doesn't matter that you wouldn't consider that to be a strong point - it's completely omitted from your view of the game.

and the issue is that the above is REALLY convenient if pav was moved to keep as the "obvscum" slot that was never getting voted.

Okay i see what you're saying now. I was definitely tunneled on the fact VP had implicated himself rather than the corollary of what that implied about Pav

[numberQ]

numberQ, are you up to the part where I reaction-voted you and implosion didn't hammer?

No I did not see that.

If RH9 is scum, he did that to capitalize on my lurkiness and hope for implo hammering.

If implo is scum, he didn't hammer because he's playing the long game and is feeling fairly comfortable alongside two other slots who are more SRed than he is. Luke flipping scum is making me really paranoid that implo is too despite me mostly TRing him for a lot of the game (the parts of the game I read anyway)

My gut is telling me it's implo. With town having won a game already, I think it's perfectly within reason for scum!implo to want to keep helping tip the balance over at the Gate. And it feels like such a risky move for scum!RH9 to make, again, particularly because scum is already down one game.

But what does scum!Luke gain from going after scum!RH9 so hard? Luke was in the hardest game for scum to win, and RH9 is in the easiest game for scum to win. Not sure it really makes for scum!Luke to work on trading those odds.

If I was scum in the Keep I'd probably just consider it a lost cause and do my best to muddy associations. And my final thought for now is, wait, is that literally what Luke did and I'm falling for it?

I'm not sure why you're asking this question when you answer it immediately at the start of the next paragraph?

But moreso this post has no real conclusions in it; saying that Luke went after RH9 so if RH9 is scum he'd have to be bussing pretty hard but maybe he was doing it to muddy associations... is... all true. What's your conclusion from it? Is the conclusion that RH9 is town because Luke wasn't bussing, or that RH9 is scum because Luke was bussing?

We're at the point in the game where we need to be making conclusions, not just stating facts.

It was stream of consciousness. I answered it in the next paragraph because I literally had that thought as I was typing it. This is me messily sorting out of my thoughts as I go through some of the material I missed, it's all very patchwork. Stating facts, questioning them, and sorting through them is a valid way to come to conclusions.

[numberQ]

What would RH9’s scum motivation for voting here be. Like they can exist but it just seems much simpler to imagine it’s a town move. Scum should at least want to entertain the notion that the afk player might be convinceable.

I don't understand this post. I agree with the conclusion that the RH9 vote is probably town, but the way you got there doesn't make sense to me. Like, sure, scum are going to entertain any notion that might get them a mislim. Including trying to get an afk player mislimmed. Why is that a reason to TR RH9?

[numberQ]

Do 1086 and 1090 sound like scum talking about scum? Not to me.

Does RH9 bus his partner as hard as he does in 1256? Seems unlikely.

1299 from implo I feel deflates my scum!implo theory at least somewhat. I don't know if scum!implo defends his buddy this blatantly. Hence, I am still on the fence. I'm going to stop ISOing for now and live in the moment for a bit, get a feel for the current conversation.

(Note: "a bit" here means tonight. With just over 3 days left I think it's smart to try and resolve the next game within the next few hours.)

[RH9]

numberQ, are you up to the part where I reaction-voted you and implosion didn't hammer?

No I did not see that.

If RH9 is scum, he did that to capitalize on my lurkiness and hope for implo hammering.

If implo is scum, he didn't hammer because he's playing the long game and is feeling fairly comfortable alongside two other slots who are more SRed than he is. Luke flipping scum is making me really paranoid that implo is too despite me mostly TRing him for a lot of the game (the parts of the game I read anyway)

My gut is telling me it's implo. With town having won a game already, I think it's perfectly within reason for scum!implo to want to keep helping tip the balance over at the Gate. And it feels like such a risky move for scum!RH9 to make, again, particularly because scum is already down one game.

It actually isn't very risky. If I was scum, I would just need implosion to hammer and Tanner to miseliminate in order to win. While scum is down a game, if I was scum, I would know enough about your towngame to fake a reaction-vote so that you don't suspect me and scapegoat implosion if it went wrong. Also, then I could be an openwolf and say this exact paragraph.
But I am Town, so the above is just hypothetical, though I still think that it should to be taken into mind.

[RH9]

Do 1086 and 1090 sound like scum talking about scum? Not to me.

Does RH9 bus his partner as hard as he does in 1256? Seems unlikely.

1299 from implo I feel deflates my scum!implo theory at least somewhat. I don't know if scum!implo defends his buddy this blatantly. Hence, I am still on the fence. I'm going to stop ISOing for now and live in the moment for a bit, get a feel for the current conversation.

(Note: "a bit" here means tonight. With just over 3 days left I think it's smart to try and resolve the next game within the next few hours.)

I would say 1086 and 1090 scum trying to distance from Lukewarm. My reads table is easily faked because I just need to emulate my towngame, which I have done before as Town in Mini 2250. All I need to do is continuing pursuing a narrative in my reads table as scum. That's the only difference between scum!me and town!me.

And by the way, I'm think that scum would definitely try to pocket you because I've seen scum do it before.

If you're trying to catch up in a hurry, reading from this post forward might help.

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p13138357

This is replacement-Green's first post and it kicked the rest of the players in the butt. They wrapped up pairings pretty quickly after that and moved on to the elimination phase. Green was right about Heart and may be right about Red as well.

The earlier posts are good reading, though. The reads I formed to that point mostly remained solid later. The players I'm least confident about townreading outside of Heart and Red are Orange, Star, and maybe Pentagon.

My strongest townreads are Circle, Blue, Purple, Green and you.

I'm ready to talk about our ability/night action when you are.

This is scum!fferyllt talking to town!Titus in their PT. All scum needs to is to influence the catch up in order to portray themselves in a better light than letting the player catch up by themselves and finding scummy posts by themselves. I have to admit that my scumgame is similar to a combination of implosion's towngame and the scumgames of fferyllt, Galron, Toogeloo (who I coincidentally replaced) and MegAzumarill. I advice that you take a look at these if you want to catch scum!me in the act.

[numberQ]

[snip]

It actually isn't very risky. If I was scum, I would just need implosion to hammer and Tanner to miseliminate in order to win. While scum is down a game, if I was scum, I would know enough about your towngame to fake a reaction-vote so that you don't suspect me and scapegoat implosion if it went wrong. Also, then I could be an openwolf and say this exact paragraph.
But I am Town, so the above is just hypothetical, though I still think that it should to be taken into mind.

I don't follow. My town meta is to TR someone for reaction voting in LiLo? And it's like you're trying to incept the idea in my mind that you'd only scapegoat implo if you were scum. I don't see the throughline.

pedit: Are you pocketing me?

[RH9]

[snip]

It actually isn't very risky. If I was scum, I would just need implosion to hammer and Tanner to miseliminate in order to win. While scum is down a game, if I was scum, I would know enough about your towngame to fake a reaction-vote so that you don't suspect me and scapegoat implosion if it went wrong. Also, then I could be an openwolf and say this exact paragraph.
But I am Town, so the above is just hypothetical, though I still think that it should to be taken into mind.

I don't follow. My town meta is to TR someone for reaction voting in LiLo? And it's like you're trying to incept the idea in my mind that you'd only scapegoat implo if you were scum. I don't see the throughline.

pedit: Are you pocketing me?

I am

definitely

pocketing you. I'm saying that town!you in Open 835 said the following and that would be why scum!me chose to do a reaction-vote on you.

RH9: sheeping Roden for some reason. I don't really know why you're trying to reaction fish from me specifically when there were two other wagons with the same number of votes or more at the time of your vote.

Galron's vote being a reaction fish makes slightly more sense than RH9's, because it puts me at E-1. Though I have to wonder why I'm worthy of that but Egix wasn't, who had been at E-2 for several pages.

I know that you will think that I am reaction-fishing so I tell everybody that beforehand. And I wouldn't only scapegoat implosion as scum, but scum!me is more likely to do that.

[RH9]

Anyways, I'm going to take a short break from this game.

[numberQ]

So scum!you reaction votes me because scum!you thinks from my meta that I'm going to TR someone who puts me at E-1 as a reaction.

Which means town!you reaction votes me to legitimately get a reaction out of me, but then town!you spends a non-insignificant amount of effort trying to convince me it could be scum!you trying to score towncred from me because of my meta.

I guess all I can say is I have no idea what to make of any of that.

[implosion]

I don't understand this post. I agree with the conclusion that the RH9 vote is probably town, but the way you got there doesn't make sense to me. Like, sure, scum are going to entertain any notion that might get them a mislim. Including trying to get an afk player mislimmed. Why is that a reason to TR RH9?

There's strong disincentive to vote first in 3p elo and I think that incentive is more pronounced as scum than as town who can be more brazen specifically in the situation where things are so precarious as they were when RH9 voted. I think at a precarious moment like that scum will want to keep options open.

[implosion]

Speaking of keeping options open you seem to be still doing that in spades, saying you're gut scumreading me and then going back to on the fence immediately thereafter. I know it's possible to be on the fence as town but from the perspective where RH9 and I both at least seem to be leaning you (at least, I imagine RH9 is given that he was willing to vote you earlier, though things could have changed, but what's important here is the appearance) playing the way you are in this fashion seems like the prudent thing to do as scum.

RH9, do you think this recent spate of posting says much meaningful about nQ's alignment?

[numberQ]

I don't understand this post. I agree with the conclusion that the RH9 vote is probably town, but the way you got there doesn't make sense to me. Like, sure, scum are going to entertain any notion that might get them a mislim. Including trying to get an afk player mislimmed. Why is that a reason to TR RH9?

There's strong disincentive to vote first in 3p elo and I think that incentive is more pronounced as scum than as town who can be more brazen specifically in the situation where things are so precarious as they were when RH9 voted. I think at a precarious moment like that scum will want to keep options open.

If town vote first in ELo and they are wrong, the game is immediately lost. That is a much greater disincentive to be brazen. Unless I'm misunderstanding something your logic doesn't track to me.

Speaking of keeping options open you seem to be still doing that in spades, saying you're gut scumreading me and then going back to on the fence immediately thereafter. I know it's possible to be on the fence as town but from the perspective where RH9 and I both at least seem to be leaning you (at least, I imagine RH9 is given that he was willing to vote you earlier, though things could have changed, but what's important here is the appearance) playing the way you are in this fashion seems like the prudent thing to do as scum.

RH9, do you think this recent spate of posting says much meaningful about nQ's alignment?

Misrep. I didn't "go back" to the fence. I've been sitting there pretty comfortably ever since I started posting again, actually. I have been pointing out posts that make me suspicious of either party. Scumreading you and then finding a post that makes me doubt that scumread isn't "keeping options open". It's a thought process. Being extra cautious and particular about that process during ELo is not scummy.

[numberQ]

I have intent to vote implo, but won't be acting on it until the morning (EST) at the earliest. Would like some input before committing to it, and I have to at least try to sleep now.

[implosion]

If town vote first in ELo and they are wrong, the game is immediately lost. That is a much greater disincentive to be brazen. Unless I'm misunderstanding something your logic doesn't track to me.

I probably could have phrased this better but the idea is that the precariousness of the situation wouldn't really affect town as sharply. In this case town voting first in eLo doesn't necessarily mean losing the game because there's also the Gate. I guess I shouldn't have said 3p eLo in general (the reason I was thinking about it is because I was thinking about the MD article I linked earlier) because there are two things about this situation that make it different from the usual. The first is that there's the Gate - this affects scum by increasing the pressure on them (because they *have* to win Wall) and town by decreasing pressure on them (because we don't) and so I think that would lead town to be more likely to vote in the way RH9 did. The second is the precariousness thing I keep saying which basically, the fact that Gate is so chaotic for what it is combined with your slot being gone for so long and the fact that I'd been townreading you before I think would have made the more prudent move for RH9-scum to be not to vote (as evidenced by me not hammering I guess, but well, I guess I'm calling him town for it now so etc). All moot if you're voting me since there's not much reason to argue about RH9 beyond that.

Misrep. I didn't "go back" to the fence. I've been sitting there pretty comfortably ever since I started posting again, actually. I have been pointing out posts that make me suspicious of either party. Scumreading you and then finding a post that makes me doubt that scumread isn't "keeping options open". It's a thought process. Being extra cautious and particular about that process during ELo is not scummy.

It's not a misrep, you said your gut was saying I'm scum and then two posts later you were saying actually you're on the fence. That's literally "going back" to the fence. Maybe you were misrepresenting your own thoughts with your words but I'm accurately representing your words in the order you said them.

[RH9]

Speaking of keeping options open you seem to be still doing that in spades, saying you're gut scumreading me and then going back to on the fence immediately thereafter. I know it's possible to be on the fence as town but from the perspective where RH9 and I both at least seem to be leaning you (at least, I imagine RH9 is given that he was willing to vote you earlier, though things could have changed, but what's important here is the appearance) playing the way you are in this fashion seems like the prudent thing to do as scum.

RH9, do you think this recent spate of posting says much meaningful about nQ's alignment?

It makes me feel nice that he's back. Alignment-wise, not much but it has definitely improved my opinion of him.

[RH9]

Speaking of keeping options open you seem to be still doing that in spades, saying you're gut scumreading me and then going back to on the fence immediately thereafter. I know it's possible to be on the fence as town but from the perspective where RH9 and I both at least seem to be leaning you (at least, I imagine RH9 is given that he was willing to vote you earlier, though things could have changed, but what's important here is the appearance) playing the way you are in this fashion seems like the prudent thing to do as scum.

RH9, do you think this recent spate of posting says much meaningful about nQ's alignment?

It makes me feel nice that he's back. Alignment-wise, not much but it has definitely improved my opinion of him.

As a player in general.

[RH9]

numberQ definitely seems to be trying to catch up.

[RH9]

I have intent to vote implo, but won't be acting on it until the morning (EST) at the earliest. Would like some input before committing to it, and I have to at least try to sleep now.

Have a good night's sleep!

[RH9]

Actually, I don't think that scum would wonder if I'm pocketing them like numberQ did in 2011. But scum could say it in order to make me think that they're Town. But would scum!numberQ do that? I need to check his scumrange again.