Holiday Dance Party ---- Game Over

[GuiltyLion]

alright well I got through 65 pages of read and like I said earlier, it's just reinforced Datisi + Alyssa townreads for me

I don't TR any of RH9's early game but I think his play lategame hasn't been agenda-driven at all and I think he's town by virtue of being

off

the marci wagon

will play more tomorrow but I'd support a Ydra Yeet so far

[RH9]

btw I saw that RH9 had a recently completed scumgame and I skimmed through parts of it

he seemed way more content-centric in that game, which leads me to believe that he's the type of scum player that's really self-conscious about his appearance

if that's a correct assessment, that's borderline clearing for him this game since I don't have that impression from him at all, at least not from a gameplay sense

I'd really just go back to the PT summary for examples of that; if you really look, the conversation about his initial reads list just kind of ends very shortly after my thoughts are out there, I don't think he ever even answered me when I asked him what he's thinking regarding his reads now that he has my thoughts on them, and it's really incongruent with that type of playstyle

You mean the one with Datisi (as Tanner) in it. Datisi (as Tanner) was the only person to catch scum!me.

[RH9]

btw I saw that RH9 had a recently completed scumgame and I skimmed through parts of it

he seemed way more content-centric in that game, which leads me to believe that he's the type of scum player that's really self-conscious about his appearance

if that's a correct assessment, that's borderline clearing for him this game since I don't have that impression from him at all, at least not from a gameplay sense

I'd really just go back to the PT summary for examples of that; if you really look, the conversation about his initial reads list just kind of ends very shortly after my thoughts are out there, I don't think he ever even answered me when I asked him what he's thinking regarding his reads now that he has my thoughts on them, and it's really incongruent with that type of playstyle

Are you talking about the one with Datisi (as Tanner) in it? Datisi (as Tanner) was the only person to catch scum!me.

EBWOP
I rephrased the sentence.

[Datisi]

okay, now that

that

game is finally over, i am not feeling immensely stressed about mafia, so i will be able to focus more here. (also, if you want to see why i said "thank fuck i'm not the ic" here, just skim through my iso that game >_>)

when i was falling asleep last night, i realized that i have reasons for everyone here to not be scum.

- gl has been showing immense effort and i've been reading him as town pretty much every step of the way since like, middle of pre-dance (and also, now that i actually hammered right in open 840 and it turned out that a very similar townread of mine was correct there, i feel much better calling him town)
- alyssa would have had to powerbus andante and also craft the game around people not turning on rh9. i will check the gamestate after marci/norwee to see if that would have been truly necessary, but my first hunch is a no
- rh9, while definitely feeling like an odd player (not an insult, that definitely doesn't equal to bad), feels pretty agendaless here. while i was similarly completely unable to read his tone in open 840, i did get a feeling at times how his actions could have malicious intent behind them. here, i didn't get it at all.
- and we're left with ydrasse, whose townpoints are that i have no clue why would she pair with the ic and then bus her partners in dance one.

i guess ydrasse's reasons for being town are the weakest? i'll review this stuff when i come home this evening, should be in some 6-8 hours.

[Ydrasse]

i’m off work a little early today so when i’m home and settled i’ll write up everything on my mind here because it’s a lot

[Alyssa The Lamb]

Where is my boy taly

[Alyssa The Lamb]

I still think it's better for him to designate the endgame pairing if we go with his leaving first

Ngl I really really really really do not want to have to deal with determining which read I'm wrong on if ydrasse is town

[Taly]

I don't know how much help I can be if it becomes 4p with my pair having left.

Gut says it is GL/RH9 but that practically doesn't accomplish much.

[Taly]

What can I give to you that will help you?

[Alyssa The Lamb]

Poke holes in my logic on the last page

[Alyssa The Lamb]

It hit me today that Andante flipping scum should have shot SS to the top of my scumreads

The fact that I've gotten this feeling twice within two games is really concerning for my ability to retain the right information

Zzz

[Ydrasse]

what information questions do people want from me i’m not home right now

[Alyssa The Lamb]

Just thoughts on every remaining slot

[Alyssa The Lamb]

Really anything

[Ydrasse]

okay when i’m home

can also just share all my pt stuff or taly can if he wants too

[RH9]

okay when i’m home

can also just share all my pt stuff or taly can if he wants too

Cool. A summary will be OK.

[RH9]

okay when i’m home

can also just share all my pt stuff or taly can if he wants too

Cool. A summary will be OK.

And preferably, spoiler the summary.

[PookyTheMagicalBear]

VoteCount 2.11

Taly - Ydrasse [0] -
Datisi - GuiltyLion [0] -
RH9 - Alyssa the Lamb [0] -

Not Voting [6]

Datisi, Ydrasse, Alyssa the Lamb, GuiltyLion, RH9, Taly

With 6 alive it takes 4 votes to execute

.

Countdown to deadline: (expired on 2022-01-08 02:00:00)

[Taly]

girl you makin me WERK

Second Dance Ends In: (expired on 2022-01-08 02:00:00)

Well, my pet theory is that the IC almost always dies if they're partnered with town.

Taly should give his thoughts on Ydrasse, of course, but I don't feel like that pair should be endgaming.

I do not think that having voted Andante makes anyone town when it was known that FB was going to leave.

It makes Shiro look better, for sure. But not "damned obvious".

I think the endgame with both our pairings gone is very sketchy in general

Seems to me that this mostly comes down to whether Shiro is scum. If he is then we're going to have a real hard time killing him if you and Taly are both gone.

After Shiro/HQ my tentative flip order would be Taly/Ydrasse -> GL/Dats -> RH9/Alyssa, I guess.

But I'm definitely willing to listen to Taly and Alyssa, my reads this game have not been super strong or super good.

I'm not opposed to switching around the first two. I still feel like my pair is the best chance to endgame but if not then it would probably be RH9/Alyssa.

I have very strong doubts that S_S pairs himself and his partner like that, I strongly believe that the best plan here was to stick to the S_S/Galron endgaming plan while setting up his partner to endgame if he winds up dying first

I think this can be simplified to whether we think

SS

posits a partner endgame with him, IE, try to keep

RH9

-scum as long as possible. I keep double taking when I try to discern the motive. On one hand he needs his other scum to be as safe as possible, but if he was trying to endgame and it backfired so horribly in such a short of period of time, then it couldn't have been something

SS

or his partner played to.

Still, why does he go after

Ydra

so blatantly? Trying to pull another T/T down or - the much less likely successful route - bussing

Ydra

? I think looking at his momentum in

Ydra's

read congruent to the suspicion of him lies the motive.

If Ydrasse is scum, then my previous thoughts about why Titus/STD was killed still remains as true.

Which ones, exactly?

Titus

NK was meant to throw town's scent off

Ydra

-scum?

If Datisi is scum, then the scumteam were probably hoping that they would win the 1v1 against the Shiro/HQ hydra, with them losing that giving a much harder endgame; although it's not inherently impossible since they can reasonably expect that Taly and I would both not endgame there.

I don't think

GL/Dat

-scum ever expect surviving to elo or to elo.

If RH9 is scum, then they can expect that whoever wins the 1v1 would be the next flip, and then they would have to hope that Taly can be convinced to leave Ydrasse, which I guess is a reasonable assumption

How has

RH9

been in your PT?

my other question is why S_S felt the need to go the path he did; I don't think there's very good odds that he was faking the stress he was expressing towards the end, so I think that he was legitimately feeling desperate

Suggests to me that whatever scum's plan was, they weren't going to win. So what was most likely the course of the game at that very snapshot of

SS'

stress?

I think all I did was just convince myself that Datisi is town

SHRUG

:DONK:

SO BASICALLY I'M BACK TO IT'S JUST YDRASSE

and

RH9

?

does a Datisi/S_S team have any other better kills in intermission?

my only guess would be my pairing??? I'm not even confident on that one

I think that's the only realistic guess. Unless maybe

Shiro/HQ

if they were that tilted by

Harley

.

atm I'm actually okay with that too

temperature check, still OK with us both leaving here?

I still want to wait until GL is done though

do you think he could be deepwolfing atp?

I've felt for a good chunk of the game that town just hasn't been really in the forefront of the game

now that I'm fairly sure that all the people who could be "deepwolf" active players are just town, it really just comes down to what player is playing the most like how the scumteam in general has been playing the game

Marcistar has been just sitting back and adding stuff, but not really anything that progresses anything
Andante has been in the background, not adding a whole lot, and started an arbitrary wagon when it became clear her time was short
S_S has been idly sheeping for most of the game and started panicking when we were turning on his wagon

I really don't think that the last scum would be doing more than that, really

Agreed, especially since this seems to point

SS

being scum's prize survivor because I don't think scumteam banks the game on

RH9/Ydra/GL

survival even with

Titus

NK.

and I think it's a lot less likely to be Datisi and RH9 since their play patterns don't entirely mesh like it

Ydrasse's does

I agree with

Dat/Ydra

but what about

RH9

?

and just like how Andante started throwing desperate plays out there, so did S_S

Andante strikes me as the type of player that would just go with whatever seems like it might work to save her own skin
S_S is much more calculating than that, I don't think he actually expected that we would turn from him onto Ydrasse at the point where he was arguing it the most intensely

Note: check early-game

SS/Ydra

interactions

I mean, I do remember

SS

being the original person saying never to voice a read on

Ydra

until intermission.

btw I saw that RH9 had a recently completed scumgame and I skimmed through parts of it

he seemed way more content-centric in that game, which leads me to believe that he's the type of scum player that's really self-conscious about his appearance

if that's a correct assessment, that's borderline clearing for him this game since I don't have that impression from him at all, at least not from a gameplay sense

I'd really just go back to the PT summary for examples of that; if you really look, the conversation about his initial reads list just kind of ends very shortly after my thoughts are out there, I don't think he ever even answered me when I asked him what he's thinking regarding his reads now that he has my thoughts on them, and it's really incongruent with that type of playstyle

He was very complacent with a no-scumread readslist, do you think that comes from town or scum more often in this type of game?

idk if the game makes any sense to me if Ydrasse flips town

at that point it's probably my curse of always having exactly one scum I can just never catch

tbh I'm waiting for

Ydra

to reply but I am at peace with leaving atm

Idr why I was scumreading ydrasse predance

why were you?

[RH9]

If RH9 is scum, then they can expect that whoever wins the 1v1 would be the next flip, and then they would have to hope that Taly can be convinced to leave Ydrasse, which I guess is a reasonable assumption

How has

RH9

been in your PT?

You should be asking me about Alyssa. She thought that Galron/S_S had to be S/S or she will be broken.

[Taly]

If RH9 is scum, then they can expect that whoever wins the 1v1 would be the next flip, and then they would have to hope that Taly can be convinced to leave Ydrasse, which I guess is a reasonable assumption

How has

RH9

been in your PT?

You should be asking me about Alyssa. She thought that Galron/S_S had to be S/S or she will be broken.

And so, I do that with this post

[RH9]

If RH9 is scum, then they can expect that whoever wins the 1v1 would be the next flip, and then they would have to hope that Taly can be convinced to leave Ydrasse, which I guess is a reasonable assumption

How has

RH9

been in your PT?

You should be asking me about Alyssa. She thought that Galron/S_S had to be S/S or she will be broken.

I paraphrased what she actually said.

[Alyssa The Lamb]

girl you makin me WERK

Second Dance Ends In: (expired on 2022-01-08 02:00:00)

Well, my pet theory is that the IC almost always dies if they're partnered with town.

Taly should give his thoughts on Ydrasse, of course, but I don't feel like that pair should be endgaming.

I do not think that having voted Andante makes anyone town when it was known that FB was going to leave.

It makes Shiro look better, for sure. But not "damned obvious".

I think the endgame with both our pairings gone is very sketchy in general

Seems to me that this mostly comes down to whether Shiro is scum. If he is then we're going to have a real hard time killing him if you and Taly are both gone.

After Shiro/HQ my tentative flip order would be Taly/Ydrasse -> GL/Dats -> RH9/Alyssa, I guess.

But I'm definitely willing to listen to Taly and Alyssa, my reads this game have not been super strong or super good.

I'm not opposed to switching around the first two. I still feel like my pair is the best chance to endgame but if not then it would probably be RH9/Alyssa.

I have very strong doubts that S_S pairs himself and his partner like that, I strongly believe that the best plan here was to stick to the S_S/Galron endgaming plan while setting up his partner to endgame if he winds up dying first

I think this can be simplified to whether we think

SS

posits a partner endgame with him, IE, try to keep

RH9

-scum as long as possible. I keep double taking when I try to discern the motive. On one hand he needs his other scum to be as safe as possible, but if he was trying to endgame and it backfired so horribly in such a short of period of time, then it couldn't have been something

SS

or his partner played to.

Still, why does he go after

Ydra

so blatantly? Trying to pull another T/T down or - the much less likely successful route - bussing

Ydra

? I think looking at his momentum in

Ydra's

read congruent to the suspicion of him lies the motive.

He was content enough to sit in the background and let us control things up until the momentum started shifting to killing his pairing.

Gun to my head that means that our current course was game winning for him (which is reasonable), while he doesn't expect scum to endgame if he dies first

If Ydrasse is scum, then my previous thoughts about why Titus/STD was killed still remains as true.

Which ones, exactly?

Titus

NK was meant to throw town's scent off

Ydra

-scum?

My idea was that Galron/Ydrasse scumteam kills Titus/STD, lets the 1v1 between GL/Dats and Shiro/HQ go on until one is removed, and then use the momentum from that TvT flip to get the other ones. Then at that point they just shade RH9 enough to get me to leave the dance and they win.

If RH9 is scum, then they can expect that whoever wins the 1v1 would be the next flip, and then they would have to hope that Taly can be convinced to leave Ydrasse, which I guess is a reasonable assumption

How has

RH9

been in your PT?

He's been trying to engage more than I have

I've basically abandoned the PT at this point tbh

my other question is why S_S felt the need to go the path he did; I don't think there's very good odds that he was faking the stress he was expressing towards the end, so I think that he was legitimately feeling desperate

Suggests to me that whatever scum's plan was, they weren't going to win. So what was most likely the course of the game at that very snapshot of

SS'

stress?

I don't remember if there was any momentum towards killing that pairing before I pivoted onto my Galron/Ydrasse solve, but after that there definitely was.

SO BASICALLY I'M BACK TO IT'S JUST YDRASSE

and

RH9

?

Still not really likely imo

atm I'm actually okay with that too

temperature check, still OK with us both leaving here?

Currently yeah

I still want to wait until GL is done though

do you think he could be deepwolfing atp?

if he is, he's just cherry picking things atm

I don't think the momentum of the game and how they've been acting as a duo really matches as scumpartners. If this was choreographed, it was really well done, but I simultaneously think that it would be very difficult to match emotional states and their general flow of the game together as well as they did as SvS and I think GL's overall trajectories in second dance have been town indicative

and I think it's a lot less likely to be Datisi and RH9 since their play patterns don't entirely mesh like it

Ydrasse's does

I agree with

Dat/Ydra

but what about

RH9

?

I don't get the impression that RH9 was being coached or warned about me in any way like I did Andante. I guess it's not really impossible, but I find it a bit unlikely

btw I saw that RH9 had a recently completed scumgame and I skimmed through parts of it

he seemed way more content-centric in that game, which leads me to believe that he's the type of scum player that's really self-conscious about his appearance

if that's a correct assessment, that's borderline clearing for him this game since I don't have that impression from him at all, at least not from a gameplay sense

I'd really just go back to the PT summary for examples of that; if you really look, the conversation about his initial reads list just kind of ends very shortly after my thoughts are out there, I don't think he ever even answered me when I asked him what he's thinking regarding his reads now that he has my thoughts on them, and it's really incongruent with that type of playstyle

He was very complacent with a no-scumread readslist, do you think that comes from town or scum more often in this type of game?

that entirely depends on personality

for his specifically (at least my read of it), I think that it's town indicative

Idr why I was scumreading ydrasse predance

why were you?

I'm still trying to figure it out again, but I did find this quote during my search if it's interesting to anyone else

okay i’m not in the right headspace to think right now but @taly what do you think about this, isis was the ic in the last game

Subject: Epilogue! - [Endgame]

BTW among the setup abuse +EV things I want to do this game is that I want my dance partner to prod dodge in the game thread and play in the dance PT to wifom the NK
That didn't happen in wolf dance but I want it to happen.
My dance PT will be plenty fun on its own we will play chess and twenty questions and I will bring you crossword puzzles

[Datisi]

i said i was gonna reread

i ended up not doing that and now it's 3am and i just realized we have less time than i thought, oops

can i outsource my read for the next twelve hours to gl? he's smarter than i am anyway ok cool

[Taly]

In an ideal world where I had the time and energy to dedicate that much, I would be ISO diving GL/Dat and putting them on spot to truly assess whether I'm OK with that pair being T/T because they've been at the center of a lot of adversity this game and tbh, I've skimmed most of it since I've always had something else at a high priority in solving or replying to.

So my biggest hesitation on them is simply a lack of diligence.