Holiday Dance Party ---- Game Over

[GuiltyLion]

...and only after typing this whole thing, i had enough brain to check when did pooky alert us that a pair had left the dance, and it actually does leave enough time for gl to see the pm and get here without it looking like scum who saw a t/t pair getting paranoid and not wanting to interrupt

Also yeah, it was unfortunate, I was online but just playing OOTP and not looking at the thread and then I got the email notification on my phone

[Ydrasse]

yes???

but it feels shitty to have everyone go “it’s you” when it’s not and i hate that

[GuiltyLion]

I think if I had to pick a T-T pair to endgame, it'd be Alyssa/RH9

I'm not especially pleased about that choice but RH9 has suddenly felt very town to me in how he's played the past few pages, like there's just little agenda to it and thinking that my 1705 read like a rehearsed post doesn't feel like a thought he would fake as scum

Taly I had also landed on this a while back too

[GuiltyLion]

Ok Ydra we can try a different approach

If you're town then the scum is in my pair - why did Smart not bus at all when Taly/Alyssa both wanted my pair flipped at 8p? How does his play make sense in the world where Datisi/GL contains his partner

[GuiltyLion]

Did Ydrasse/Andante talk to each other a single time...?

[Taly]

GL you are giving my paranoia a megaphone lmao

Paranoia about you, not Ydra.

You're posting at such a volume and in a manner that vindicates yourself while suggesting Ydra is scum.

Usually elo in large themes with an active plist the wolf that is missed is the one in the stronger position than a slot suspected throughout the game.

And I'm not just pulling up Slaughter Hour and Anything Upick as suggestions.

Tell me why . And it's not effective to just say that you wanted to leave at 6p/8p because you didn't snd that alone is not a differential factor between you and Ydra.

What is different is that Ydra has expressed exhaustion with this game for almost half of it and it has strengthened progressively. Whereas you knew that I and the dead thread wanted your flip and yet you pursued SS/Galron - I believe after Datisi hopped onto it.

You know, it's kind of odd how SS pivots onto Ydra/Me after telling me I shouldn't be voting him because I'd be ignoring the dead thread... which would mean eliminating you/Dat, and he even says this.

So why does he contradict a vote on you around the time that Ydra begins fending for herself in the thread? Was there no thought that I as an IC makes 6p or 4p much easier on the town?

[Taly]

Tell me why .

You aren't scum trying to convince me to leave here because I don't see evidence to the contrary.

[Taly]

Omg I once again reach elo for the third town game in a row

At threat of a 3/3 loss based on indirect or direct decisions made by me.

I need therapy lmao

[Taly]

All large themes

[Taly]

Ydra did you ever think I was the type to make elo this game?

[Taly]

Should've been more clear with Aly that I'm always the first of us to leave LOL oops

[GuiltyLion]

GL you are giving my paranoia a megaphone lmao

Paranoia about you, not Ydra.

You're posting at such a volume and in a manner that vindicates yourself while suggesting Ydra is scum.

Usually elo in large themes with an active plist the wolf that is missed is the one in the stronger position than a slot suspected throughout the game.

And I'm not just pulling up Slaughter Hour and Anything Upick as suggestions.

Tell me why . And it's not effective to just say that you wanted to leave at 6p/8p because you didn't snd that alone is not a differential factor between you and Ydra.

What is different is that Ydra has expressed exhaustion with this game for almost half of it and it has strengthened progressively. Whereas you knew that I and the dead thread wanted your flip and yet you pursued SS/Galron - I believe after Datisi hopped onto it.

You know, it's kind of odd how SS pivots onto Ydra/Me after telling me I shouldn't be voting him because I'd be ignoring the dead thread... which would mean eliminating you/Dat, and he even says this.

So why does he contradict a vote on you around the time that Ydra begins fending for herself in the thread? Was there no thought that I as an IC makes 6p or 4p much easier on the town?

first off to clarify, I never wanted to leave, I said as much, that would be doing scum's work for them. What I wanted was for you all to vote me out, for scum (and town) to put their money where their mouth is if they were going to actually push for me to be eliminated. And I promised that I wouldn't throw a fit about it once HQ/Shiro flipped town, and I didn't. I was totally willing to get limmed there to resolve my slot.

That's different than just claiming I want to/am going to leave. It relates to your point because Ydra has never had to deal with an actual wagon on her at any point this game since it's always been assumed you will just leave once we collectively (or you unilaterally) decide it is right to do so.

Why

is Ydra exhausted with this game? In my mind flipping scum!Smart was huge, that resolved my anxieties about who was the deep wolf and put town in a much better chance to win the game. Ydra's just AtEing when it makes no sense from her as town, if she were town and gave a fuck about winning this game she'd be casing which of Datisi/GL is scum and trying her damndest to make us crack/mess up in the main thread by pressuring us. All she's done instead is try to make us feel bad for wanting her gone and say she's exhausted. Why? Who has even done a lot to make her feel bad this game when she's gotten to coast for the first half of it and had most of the game basically treat her as self-resolving town? If she gets 'exhausted' by just trying to Solve Correctly then why does she even play mafia?

I don't quite follow your last question here, can you rephrase it? I've already speculated several times on Smart's play in 8p. I think the plan was for Smart to endgame and look good off of Ydra scumflip, to not look

bad

off of Datisi/GL T-T flip, and Ydra was playing to live as long as she can while setting up Smart to endgame and not be the carry herself. I don't think the scumteam anticipated us pivoting onto Smart/Galron pair and I think that's why

both

Smart and Ydra had their mini freakouts exactly when they did. And if scum was in our pair and not Ydra, then frankly Smart played 8p completely abysmally when he could have taken all the towncred in the world by convincingly bussing us, we were extremely likely to go down anyways, and he just... chose not to. For what? So Datisi/myself could be the endgaming scum instead of him? In what world is that a good or logical plan? Smart is a more calculated scum player than that and if I were scum with him personally I would have been telling him to bus the shit out of me basically the entirety of second dance.

[GuiltyLion]

Tell me why .

You aren't scum trying to convince me to leave here because I don't see evidence to the contrary.

This is a bad reason to suspect me because as town

or

scum I want you to leave to win this game. Me trying hard in LIMLO and trying to get you to yeet the slot I think is scum isn't itself evidence for my alignment one way or the other, what you need to be doing is looking at the points I'm making and see if they make sense to you or not. Or convince me that I'm wrong on Datisi being town. I put forward a town case for Datisi and why I think it's Ydrasse, I would do that as either alignment, the simple fact of me doing it doesn't make me scum

[GuiltyLion]

I also think Ydrasse not being NK'd is always going to be good evidence for her being scum because otherwise scum chose to forfeit their singular chance to take out the conftown player and leave it out of their control that you'll remove yourself from the game at some point, and to what end?

To outweigh/ignore that piece of evidence and bet the game on Ydrasse town requires, in my mind,

quite

good evidence that Ydrasse is town and I don't see that in her ISO in this game. She hasn't really championed any lims on scum, she hasn't been transparently obvtown in sharing her thoughts or her reads, she's tried to make us feel bad for flipping her, etc etc. I don't see any posts of hers that I say "Scum!Ydrasse almost never writes that post", whereas I have a handful of those for Datisi, in how he interacted with me, flipped town, flipped scum.

Look at Ydrasse's interactions with scum and convince me they look unaligned? She has a pretty textbook distancing type of conversation with marci in 614 (and everything quote chained inside of it), she virtually never speaks with Andante at all... like the entire game... she pokes fun at Smart but doesn't do a lot of work to sort/solve him either. Whereas Datisi has page after page of these long involved conversations with each of the scum, trying to understand their posts and though processes, Datisi was repeatedly trying to get me to consider scum!Andante in our PT, etc, etc.

[GuiltyLion]

i'm literally doing the biggest thing someone could do if they were scum to handicap themselves and then i just fucking sit around doing nothing all game. like im good at being townread if i try to be because i know what /works/ and then i just said "fuck it no lol" this game danced and twirled some with taly said "yep ready to leave when you are boss" and did nothing but twiddle my thumbs when i could have just paired with someone else and brute forced my way to endgame with them

like yeah sure i let everyone scumread me and just sit there going yep mhm no i wont talk to you actually and just keep going hoping that im dragged along when if im scum i literally know that i am not going to die and have to like.... compensate for that

I dunno, which of the gentlemen do you think scum!you would have the best chance of pocketing all the way through endgame? And when Taly proposed, how would scum!you play that off if you didn't want to pair with him?

I see your point here that you haven't tried to be townread, but I feel if you're scum the plan was never for you to endgame (as soon as you paired with Taly), it was to stay alive as long as possible to keep people paranoid about other slots, pocket Taly, and give away as little info as possible as to who your partners are. Which I could see fitting your ISO/play this game.

and the last point about compensating for not dying doesn't make sense to me because if you were widely townread it would make even less sense for you to not die. the only way you not dying is explicable (if you are scum) is if it's reasonable to think scum might try to WIFOM your slot, which can only work if you've got suspicion on you already

I want to highlight this post/point again.

If I were town with the IC, IMO the best way to play that spot is to power obvtown and try to lead on scum, eat the bullet, and hope whoever is the most obvious T/T pair remaining can carry to endgame.

I can

understand

an idea of playing cagey during first dance, keeping reads in a PT, and forcing scum to be put into a harder NK decision not knowing how much they can count on IC leaving. I don't think I subscribe to that being the

best

use of the spot, but I can maybe buy the idea.

What I

can't

understand is coming out of intermission, still alive, and then NOT being like "alright scum y'all fucked up it's time for me to powertown because if I'm townread by everyone then we auto". Maybe it wouldn't work, but I'd at least

try

, otherwise I'm just setting myself up to get pushed by scum at some point.

Ydra's lack of effort during second dance hasn't helped town at all and it's entirely consistent with how scum would play if they want to keep the WIFOM alive and make things harder for town. And also if it's just hard for them to convincingly keep up appearances. Playing scum is difficult and draining. Ydra has half the posts of all the rest of us alive.

Ydra claims why wouldn't she become townread as scum, her play doesn't help the scumteam, but she's leaving out the fact that she didn't become townread as town either, and her play didn't really help the town team. It's a null point in her defense at best.

[Datisi]

i was taking a walk in the cold wind earlier, seems to be the best place for thinking about mafia for me. and i thought back to something that guiltylion said earlier this game, that he's paranoid of me being scum because our slot was always so suspected but it never seemed to get quite over the edge. considering our pair has been the "we need to flip this pair next" for the last... 3? 4? 5? flips, i think it shows the opposite. for like the entire game, at least one of us has been likely to flip, if not both of us. what partners *wouldn't* bus in this scenario. trying to keep us alive would've been incredibly risky because it was always very likely we were going to flip. it would've potentially brought the whole scumteam down.

i reread parts of the game between shiro/hq flip and s_s/galron flip, and ydrasse seems much more likely to be partnered with s_s than guiltylion. and like, usually i wouldn't be rushing this, but we don't have the luxury of time, especially considering i'll be busy for half the day again tomorrow. how likely do you think it's gl over ydra? (i'm assuming you don't think it's me but if you do any want to talk about anything, lemme know i guess)

[Taly]

I think I'm going to leave.

I have retorts to GL but they seem like playstyle differences to hash out.

[Taly]

Idk the biggest difficulty I have is why did

SS

feed into the paranoia that I should leave if all it did was hurt his partner's survival?

It doesn't make sense to me. It borders on throwing.

[GuiltyLion]

basically I think S_S planned to be the endgame scum, not Ydrasse

I know this probably doesn't mean a whole lot at the moment but I am town and so if Datisi is game winning scum and we lose, the large brunt of the responsibility will be on me for getting massively massively pocketed and I wouldn't say it's your fault for leaving but rather mine for not leaving

[GuiltyLion]

to flesh out that first point, given a S_S/Ydrasse team, I really don't think that team tries to have Ydra survive make it to endgame, I think they assume she's going down before F4 and so everything Smart would be doing would be to make sure he's not too apparently linked on a Ydrasse red flip

[Datisi]

In an ydra scum world, what is her partner most likely doing rn?

And what is scum doing if she is town?

i don't know. if ydra is scum, i would imagine her partner is someone who is pretty well distanced from both flipped scum, and potentially someone who would egg on ydrasse being scum today - because they could probably sense that they would have to be The Endgaming Scum so i imagine they were preparing for it for a bit

i spoke about that way back, like if ydrasse is scum she wasn't supposed to be endgaming. it just so happened that the thread suddenly decided there's scum in s_s/galron

[Datisi]

I know this probably doesn't mean a whole lot at the moment but I am town and so if Datisi is game winning scum and we lose, the large brunt of the responsibility will be on me for getting massively massively pocketed and I wouldn't say it's your fault for leaving but rather mine for not leaving

this is kind of on my mind, the reverse of it technically

not only would i have been massively pocketed, i'd also have been told by the majority of the dead town and i didn't listen to them

but i'm not sure how i can justify leaving here when gl feels like he has much less chance of being scum than ydra does

[Ydrasse]

because he didn’t want to kill his partner so he opted for the alternative easily set up by the rest of the game which allowed him to. when people kept insinuating i was scum despite it being off limits it became more concrete of a thing.

i don’t think that gl/dats ever were the pair that Had to flip and i said as much to you when i didn’t prefer them and instead went after galron/ss. i have... no real incentive to do that at that point in the game when there’s something easy in front of me, easy to line up with past comments and reads i’ve had, easy to line everything up for myself and keep a buddy alive and give us twice a fighting chance. instead i... set myself up on a whim to kill them and then hope i can tear through the remaining pairs?

which like, yeah, i sure did tear through them. really pushed my buddy out hard for that sweet towncred

[Ydrasse]

like i literally had the option of setting him up by quick hammering and leaving if i wanted to. just there you go final 4 good luck everyone with galron who townread s_s and would only leave if everyone else ty ought it was s_s... and that would have been against rh9 who would be a way easier person to kill

[Datisi]

like i literally had the option of setting him up by quick hammering and leaving if i wanted to. just there you go final 4 good luck everyone with galron who townread s_s and would only leave if everyone else ty ought it was s_s... and that would have been against rh9 who would be a way easier person to kill

what is this talking about?