Open 843 - Divide & Conquer - Game Over!

[Todoroki]

i think he wouldve thought a lot more about how to vote and recalled this discussion from last game were he scum.

I am still not sure what you are saying.

His first post about which hood we should shoot in was the "correct' mech conclusion.

Do you mean you giving him town points because his rvs vote was in the small hood?

[Brighter Puppy]

Notsci don't u think u hunting in beta group is waste of time.
WE GOT SCUM IN ALPHA TO CATCH AND I NEED UR THOUGHTS THERE

don't distract

[Brighter Puppy]

i should go back to shitposting.
tryhard is not my suit

[Todoroki]

Notsci don't u think u hunting in beta group is waste of time.
WE GOT SCUM IN ALPHA TO CATCH AND I NEED UR THOUGHTS THERE

don't distract

Hello, I am Lukewarm.

[Todoroki]

This is hydra erasure

[Brighter Puppy]

put notsci on the phone i wish to speak with him

[Brighter Puppy]

so that i can

manipulate

convince him i have game winning strategy

[Kuriyama]

Hello, I am Lukewarm.

Hi Lukewarm,

do you have any thoughts about who is town/scum in the Large Hood?

[innocentvillager]

i asked him who does he think we will be paired with/who does he want to be paired with. he responds with okay we scum, who should we pair with (before i even saw role pm) then he suggest pairing with innocentvillager and dialogue about strategy to lim him and say scum want everyone paranoid us. then i ask him if we are really scum or is he memeing (we had a pre role pm discussion of what we would rather be and i said hydra is better as town than scum)

this was to extend of basically all our discussions of the game besides "WHEN IS THIS GAME STARTING. WHY ARE WE STILL IN NIGHT 0. WHEN WILL THIS START"

why me?

[innocentvillager]

IV do you forget I've been an active member in two of your scum games?

don’t you need to see a towngame before you can be more confident in recognizing my scumgame?

your confidence in reading me just from that seems a bit jarring

[innocentvillager]

firebringer eagerness comes off as townie but I hear he’s a good player so idk if I can believe my TL there strongly

[innocentvillager]

Vote Count 1.01

Official Vote Count

Todoroki

(2): mc esther, Dunnstral

mc esther

(1): Dwlee99

Brighter Puppy

(1): Kuriyama

Dwlee99

(1): innocentvillager

Not Voting

(4): Save The Dragons, Todoroki, Prism, Brighter Puppy

With 9 employees, it takes 5 to fire.

is anyone else having trouble reading this? :3 should I just change my theme

[Dwlee99]

IV do you forget I've been an active member in two of your scum games?

don’t you need to see a towngame before you can be more confident in recognizing my scumgame?

your confidence in reading me just from that seems a bit jarring

Have I not? But no

[innocentvillager]

lowkey i think ur kinda townie for saying that early ig. I don’t see the scum incentive for you to dig yourself into a hole like that when literally nobody here should expect you to have a perfect read rate on me. idk maybe ur just being performative but it doesn’t feel that way.

lol it’s so weird not knowing your alignment I’ve never actually tried to read you

any tips? do you think you would say that as scum?

[innocentvillager]

I was in that game too

Copying my notes: eliminating 3-person hood mafia day 1 is bad because it means the next 2 kills are the town players in the 3 person hood

VOTE: Dwlee99

yeah im really gonna be upset if we hit scum on d1

[Dwlee99]

The trick is that I'm always town

[innocentvillager]

Hey, I was in a previous running of this game.

There ended up being a lot of discussion on which hood to kill in first. After lots and lots of back and forth mech talk, it was decided that killing in the big hood first is better. Despite that, we killed scum in the small hood day one, and then proceeded to lose the game.

I don't remember all of the math on why it is better, but that was Bingle's final conclusion, and I trust Bingle's set up spec better then my own anyways.

Spoiler:

I know, I know. Bingle was scum that game.

But then he stood by it in the ghost chat, and he also said it in the original run of this set up, he had the same conclusion

So, would love to skip all of the mech back and forth and just all agree to kill in the big hood. Thanks!

Interesting, I’m down to just follow it even if it feels a bit wrong to me.

also fwiw I think this comes from town!NS unless he’s confident that people are going to bring it up. Either that or it’s scum!NS who wants people to kill in the 6 first for whatever reason. But it seems like in general he believes that town should kill in the 6 so if he’s scum it should be bad for him to reinforce town optimal strategy when he could’ve just let us bicker about it more

[innocentvillager]

The trick is that I'm always town

i claim doctor

[Dwlee99]

That NS read is bad. Enforcing town optimal strategy hasn't been townie since 2005

[innocentvillager]

if town is divided between the optimal town strat and the non optimal one why would scum want to push it in the direction of the optimal one and cite evidence for it? especially if you think it “hasn’t been townie since _”

[innocentvillager]

the only reason I can really think of is that for some reason scum!NS set it up in a way such that it’s better for them in this case to go for group of 6, that somehow the incentives align, but I dont know wtf that could be

[innocentvillager]

Idk I’ll keep thinking on it I guess maybe there’s nothing there and I just got excited

[Dwlee99]

Anyway here's a math post:

If we lim in group beta chance of winning is:

1/3(1/6 + (5/6)(1/5) + (5/6)(4/5)(1/3)) [hit scum D1] + 1/3(1/5 + (4/5)(1/3)) [D2] + 1/3(1/3) [D3] =~ 45%

Alpha math is more complicated cause I can't tell if scum should shoot in alpha or beta if we lim in alpha

[Dwlee99]

I will say 45% EV is enormously town-sided though so I like that route unless more math shows alpha route is better

[Dwlee99]

(1/6) + (5/6)(1/4)(1/3 + 1/3) + (5/6)(3/4)(1/2)(1/3) =~ 41%

I want the beta route