Open 843 - Divide & Conquer - Game Over!

[Brighter Puppy]

i think alpha route actually still has higher odds and i don't think ur calculating math completely right.
say we miss on elim scum in alpha today. game becomes (1/3 and 1/5 scum have to shoot one of groups more likely to shoot in alpha if they are worried about getting poed maybe in smaller, so lets say next day its 1/3 and 1/4 if its another mis yeet then it becomes optimal to kill in either group because 1/3 and 1/3 - so it becomes a 1/3 and 1/2 situation in either if we finally get scum in say the 3 group then we still have a confirmed town left to solve the game giving u a 50/50 scenario.

if we go back to original and take say elim scum day 1 in group 1/3 then by day 3 we have no confirmed town for remaining of the game.
If we elim in alpha at any time we would get at LEAST 2 confirmed town with at least one at endgame no matter how badly we played (unless we just mislim the whole game).
Alpha route is actually better for getting confirmed towns and having them alive in endgame. Even if we have higher chance of misyeets.

[Brighter Puppy]

Say we misyeet no matter what we did today in either grouping here is where are at
Beta route:
1/2 and 1/5 (assuming scum don't be stupid and just give away teammate) - if we get it right at this point in beta then confirmed townie dies and we have no confirmed townie for remaining of game
Alpha route:
1/3 and 1/4 (assuming scum decide to thin crowd in alpha still) if we get rid of scum successfully in alpha here we have 3 townies so we would have a endgame confirmed townie in a 1/2 1 scenario

Option 2 is a much better position to be in

[Prism]

Very tired. Very sure that shooting in Group of 3 is optimal but will do the math tomorrow, sometimes mechanics can be counterintuitive and surprising. Intuitively, note that scum has to shoot an unclear after a wrong elim regardless of what group we pick, and eliminating correctly in group of 3 is rewarded with 1/2 elims, not just 1/2 clears. Worst case scenario also obviously better going down the line in 3.

Will substantively read in morning, not going to YOLO read right now.

Thinking while hiking I decided not to speculate on groups until we actually get a scumflip. Todoroki was a horrible choice to put in if they are town though.

[mc esther]

i think he wouldve thought a lot more about how to vote and recalled this discussion from last game were he scum.

Do you mean you giving him town points because his rvs vote was in the small hood?

yes

[Brighter Puppy]

Like I think a fairly reasonable thing for norwee to say to you if you were town is "I won the first running of this setup as town when we eliminated scum in large group d1 and we lost the second running of this setup as town when we eliminated scum in small group d1, so we should aim for large group to go for that d1 win"

Which makes your entry into today feel kind of weird and intentionally oblivious to me. So you're saying he didn't say that to you, and I'm asking you, what did he say to you?

I'm asking now because he's probably asleep right now.

Why you think i would be so helpful to Fire.
I literally just making fun of him in our hydra chat this entire time.

- Norwee

[Brighter Puppy]

Perhaps I expect too much of Norwee.

Yes. I just complained about how this game is too serious and doesn’t have enough memes.
I was not setting up plans and being some kind of master strategist. I like to just play the game and see how things go, and act based on the present. Now is past experiences useful? Sure, but i don’t think to bring it up until i have a good reason too.

- Norwee

[Brighter Puppy]

i asked him who does he think we will be paired with/who does he want to be paired with. he responds with okay we scum, who should we pair with (before i even saw role pm) then he suggest pairing with innocentvillager and dialogue about strategy to lim him and say scum want everyone paranoid us. then i ask him if we are really scum or is he memeing (we had a pre role pm discussion of what we would rather be and i said hydra is better as town than scum)

this was to extend of basically all our discussions of the game besides "WHEN IS THIS GAME STARTING. WHY ARE WE STILL IN NIGHT 0. WHEN WILL THIS START"

why me?

You’re my (self-imposed) GREATEST rival in this playerlist.
I still remember that time i had pocketed the entire playerlist but you just wouldn’t stup sussing me!! Norwee NEVER forgets such DISLOYALTY!

- Norwee

[Brighter Puppy]

Anyway here's a math post:

If we lim in group beta chance of winning is:

1/3(1/6 + (5/6)(1/5) + (5/6)(4/5)(1/3)) [hit scum D1] + 1/3(1/5 + (4/5)(1/3)) [D2] + 1/3(1/3) [D3] =~ 45%

Alpha math is more complicated cause I can't tell if scum should shoot in alpha or beta if we lim in alpha

The world is spinning around and around… I’m so confused…

- Norwee

[Brighter Puppy]

I think limming in bigger pool is better since another Bingle endgame scenario would suck…
Never underestimate the tremendous hubris and ego an day 1 scumflip brings! The greatest downfall of townies, for they will make ALL the wrong conclusions.
But if we day 1 scumflip in big hood we just win so whatevs lmao.

- Norwee

[Todoroki]

Hello, I am Lukewarm.

Hi Lukewarm,

do you have any thoughts about who is town/scum in the Large Hood?

Nothing strong.

Vaguely thought that if there was scum in the you + puppy interaction, it would be you. But as a whole it looked t/t.

But we also have not even heard from Save the Dragons or Prism yet.

[Todoroki]

Hey, I was in a previous running of this game.

There ended up being a lot of discussion on which hood to kill in first. After lots and lots of back and forth mech talk, it was decided that killing in the big hood first is better. Despite that, we killed scum in the small hood day one, and then proceeded to lose the game.

I don't remember all of the math on why it is better, but that was Bingle's final conclusion, and I trust Bingle's set up spec better then my own anyways.

Spoiler:

I know, I know. Bingle was scum that game.

But then he stood by it in the ghost chat, and he also said it in the original run of this set up, he had the same conclusion

So, would love to skip all of the mech back and forth and just all agree to kill in the big hood. Thanks!

Interesting, I’m down to just follow it even if it feels a bit wrong to me.

also fwiw I think this comes from town!NS unless he’s confident that people are going to bring it up. Either that or it’s scum!NS who wants people to kill in the 6 first for whatever reason. But it seems like in general he believes that town should kill in the 6 so if he’s scum it should be bad for him to reinforce town optimal strategy when he could’ve just let us bicker about it more

Hello, I am Lukewarm.

But also, I don't think this is a good reason to town read us. Almost certain I would have said we should elim in the big hood as scum. Especially since there are two other players in this game that were in that game with me.

I am town, but please find a better reason to call me town. Thanks!

[Todoroki]

(1/6) + (5/6)(1/4)(1/3 + 1/3) + (5/6)(3/4)(1/2)(1/3) =~ 41%

I want the beta route

I asked nicely for us to skip the mech back and forth.

The math is very slightly better to kill in the small pool first,

if all shots are made at random.

But, there are other factors. Killing scum day 1 in the big hood wins the game, so scum can never bus into the big hood. But they can bus into the small hood. Meaning, if we are killing in the small hood day 1, the information we gain from associatives is not as good.

Also, if we kill into the small hood, and hit scum day 1, then the scum that is left gets to do two no info kills in a row. So, the literal best case scenario for killing in the small hood is a 1v5 mountainous game where the scum team does not kill anyone until the night before elo. (this is how my last game played out.)

Vs best case scenario of killing in the big hood - which is an auto win. And even if we miss in the big hood, night kills and associatives are stronger.

So, math wise, killing in the small hood is a +4% EV when shot at random, but shooting in the big hood results in better information to solve with, meaning we will not be shooting at random.

This is the exact discussion that Bingle and Vander had day 1 of the last game on where to shoot.

[Dunnstral]

I agree with the above mech

[innocentvillager]

Todoroki was a horrible choice to put in if they are town though.

?

Especially since there are two other players in this game that were in that game with me.

hm yeah this is true too. honestly i still get a decent ish vibe from you adamantly shooting down my early TL of you but dwlee did it first so /shrug

why are concerned in general about being "TR'd for the wrong reasons" though?

[innocentvillager]

i asked him who does he think we will be paired with/who does he want to be paired with. he responds with okay we scum, who should we pair with (before i even saw role pm) then he suggest pairing with innocentvillager and dialogue about strategy to lim him and say scum want everyone paranoid us. then i ask him if we are really scum or is he memeing (we had a pre role pm discussion of what we would rather be and i said hydra is better as town than scum)

this was to extend of basically all our discussions of the game besides "WHEN IS THIS GAME STARTING. WHY ARE WE STILL IN NIGHT 0. WHEN WILL THIS START"

why me?

You’re my (self-imposed) GREATEST rival in this playerlist.
I still remember that time i had pocketed the entire playerlist but you just wouldn’t stup sussing me!! Norwee NEVER forgets such DISLOYALTY!

- Norwee

lol you flatter me, is this ur attempt to pocket me :3

i do feel like one of my few strengths in this game is not being pocketed easily and if i am then it's lightly/temporary, but that's also bc im a paranoid person in general

i guess i still don't understand why you would specifically want me in a hood with you? is it to fight me basically? i mean you know how annoying i get as town when attacked right?

[innocentvillager]

lukewarm is there a reason that you're actually upset by the mech talk? i trust the process but some of us haven't played this setup before and want to convince ourselves/think through it first, i think this is reasonably productive discussion

im just gonna assume dwlee did the math right, given that i think your latest post makes a lot of sense

fwiw
-I disagree with the "best case scenario being a 1v5 mountainous" because this ignores the fact that we get a 1/6 shot in scum the day before that.
-also i think NKA is overrated, but the asymmetric bussing dynamic definitely seems like it can make for some good info
-also 4% EV is a LOT imo lol

honestly as im writing this i kind of think it's worth discussing an idea where we don't "decide on a hood to kill in". It seems close enough that maybe we should just sort everyone and have everyone on the table for today and play it like a normal game on D1 for the most part. That way we don't hyperfocus on a particular set of players and can get more cross hood associatives.

[Todoroki]

I am town, but please find a better reason to call me town. Thanks!

I asked nicely for us to skip the mech back and forth.

Both of these are me making jokes.

I am not upset by either thing.

[Todoroki]

-I disagree with the "best case scenario being a 1v5 mountainous" because this ignores the fact that we get a 1/6 shot in scum the day before that.

I am including that 1 in 6 shot.

If we kill mafia in the small hood day 1, then the game becomes a mountainous game for the small hood. 6 players. 1v5. / But the scum team is not killing anyone until the night before elo, because they will be killing off the two confirmed townies first.

[Todoroki]

-also 4% EV is a LOT imo lol
-
It seems close enough that maybe we should just sort everyone and have everyone on the table for today

Is 4% EV a LOT, or is it close enough that we should just ignore it? lol

[Brighter Puppy]

i guess i still don't understand why you would specifically want me in a hood with you? is it to fight me basically? i mean you know how annoying i get as town when attacked right?

Yes and that would be funny.

- Norwee

[Brighter Puppy]

Because then Fire would need to clean up the mess.

See where i'm going with this?

- Norwee

[Brighter Puppy]

I agree with the above mech

I also agree with the aforementioned mech.
And i also agree with this post agreeing on the mech.

- Norwee

[Pavowski]

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[Pavowski]

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[Pavowski]

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