Open 843 - Divide & Conquer - Game Over!

[Prism]

I'm going to circle back after I finish what I'm working on.

[Brighter Puppy]

What. I'm not allowed to read into it? I mean... ok.
Back to lurking then.

- Norwee

[Prism]

Honestly, no, let's skip to the end and then I'm going to go for a walk. This is going to be split up by points/slots.

There were several categories of mechanical/qualitative points presented. I could spend eons on Brighter's, but the one that struck me as particularly disconcerting was 36:

I think beta eliminating looks appealing on surface because of higher initial odds, but actually is a LIE once u really think about it and the chances of us messing up and then not even really get to enjoy perks of having say 2 confirmed townies.

LETS GO LONG BOIS AND GIRLS

The issue with this to me was that Firebringer cited the chance of "messing up" and losing out on perks/elims is cited only as a real issue for the voting in 3, but voting in the 6 was obviously broken townsided autowin. Understanding and pushing probability in one but not the other was very striking to me. I'm going to defer on the interactions with me, the math point I saw coming from a mile away and the fact that it was from Firebringer did not help. That said, I saw it coming.

My major hangups with the slot are 36 and the fact that Firebringer is actually pushing content forward instead of just shitposting. I don't think that's fair of me, because that's more in line with my own preference for play and it's just the mechanical points+fallacies that I hate, but the name of the game is what Firebringer does as scum not whether I approve of a playstyle shift.

[Brighter Puppy]

hmhmhmmm
okay now i want to hear from STD cause him and Dunny are my FOS for the day now.

[Prism]

But, there are other factors. Killing scum day 1 in the big hood wins the game, so scum can never bus into the big hood. But they can bus into the small hood. Meaning, if we are killing in the small hood day 1, the information we gain from associatives is not as good.

Also, if we kill into the small hood, and hit scum day 1, then the scum that is left gets to do two no info kills in a row. So, the literal best case scenario for killing in the small hood is a 1v5 mountainous game where the scum team does not kill anyone until the night before elo. (this is how my last game played out.)

Vs best case scenario of killing in the big hood - which is an auto win. And even if we miss in the big hood, night kills and associatives are stronger.

So, math wise, killing in the small hood is a +4% EV when shot at random, but shooting in the big hood results in better information to solve with, meaning we will not be shooting at random.

This point isn't the worst but I think you dismiss the value of interactions in 3 pool-lim too much. The scum in the 6 is

greatly

disincentivized from bussing, because that is two more elims to dodge, and bussing is not so simple either: There will be a scum nightkill on an unclear N3.

I have seen other towns fall asleep at the wheel after a scumflip Day 1...but none of my games have gone that way, and I suspect this table will be no different even were I completely absent. There are a few configurations where we wind up with paint drying in 3 way but not many.

I also do not think I gave nothing in my first two posts, and I am surprised that Lukewarm in particular has not speculated on where he was put.

[Prism]

Todoroki was a horrible choice to put in if they are town though.

?

You don't want difficult to vote people in the group of 3

unless

you're intentionally sandbagging it. Looking at the pairings, I thought all 3 are difficult to vote out as town, and perhaps that was intentional as opposed to some obvious juxtaposition, but likely they were thinking something else entirely.

Todoroki in particular has two different players that are generally easy to read, though there has been talk of notscience having "graduated". Not many people saw Guardians where Lukewarm improved rapidly. I was surprised to see Firebringer call notscience often misread, which I suspect he believes even in a scumworld, which speaks to the subjectivity of experience.

The only time I seriously considered eliminating in the group of 6 during my hike was wondering whether the group of 3 would be effectively self-resolving with time.

[Prism]

Focusing on the three, my current vote is esther. IV I feel I now have some idea how to read and think posts like 170 are very difficult for him to fake. 9:12 he really struggled to give reads like this off the cuff without making them overly convoluted, and the ones that did come were with a high degree of intentionality and thought. Wouldn't shock me if he's scum but yeah.

Todoroki is null for now. I am confident I still have, for the moment, Todoroki's number, and it is more of a matter of time for when I catch them than a question of if. There was one game I struggled to see notscience as town but even spectating I have always found it trivial. No one would be happier than me to be proven wrong.

Esther I think had a few issues. This sequence I felt the same as Kuriyama and thought the process transparently fake:

my gut caught this too, but i think it's lying to me. i just dont really see why scum would post it.

to try to get townread?

i dont think anyone's gonna townread firebringer for theoryposting, and i dont think firebringer expects to be townread for it.

This is tough to pin down exactly why it pinged me, but an easy logical criticism is that "don't see why scum would post it" and "wouldn't [explicitly] expect to be townread for it" is a big gulf. Fundamentally, "i just don't really see why scum would post it." is just a really low that I think is in the same dismissive family as Cabd's response to me in Holiday Dance.

"If we lim in the small pool we NEVER have conftown in 5p."

I'm going to combine a strategy critique here with a criticism of the slot. If we lim in the small pool we NEVER hit 5 way ELO is the key counterpoint, and the clear is not nearly enough to justify going out of your way to seek the scenario (20->25% EV in 5 way, probably more w/ kingmaker mech, countered by better odds+getting a clear in 7p instead)

And I absolutely think she should know better.

VOTE: mc esther

[Prism]

i probably ended up in that group on those grounds ("nobody knows me" is pretty similar to "hard to read" imo).

This isn't relevant to my vote on you-though I do believe you put yourself in the 3 over the 6-but I want to note that this isn't the best assumption that scum did not research you given they had the full 48 hours.

While I am unusually neurotic with these things, I would be shocked if neither head of Todoroki researched it as scum, and it is completely possible that they skimmed your games for a strength gauge without any idea of your main.

How they decided the pairings also depends heavily on who the scum are to start.

[Prism]

Pav, given that it is public information, is there any chance you can put the hoods into one of the opening posts?

[Prism]

I tried my best to make the recent set of posts as level, genuine, and critical without being mean-spirited or vicious. While I hope I succeeded, I apologize if that is not the case. Impact matters more than intent, but I hope knowing that I genuinely tried for that set to keep it level will allow for some benefit of the doubt.

What. I'm not allowed to read into it? I mean... ok.
Back to lurking then.

- Norwee

I think it was fine to question the legitimacy, which is why I pointed you to meta if you were concerned about it.

"Freaking out over nothing" though did indeed tilt me off the ends of the earth and when you said that you weren't questioning the legitimacy, yeah I almost blew a fuse. There's a disconnect here over "trying to understand" vs. "questioning the intent" which I viewed as equivalent, though the latter is arguably more aggressive.

I felt strongly that

why

I hated the qualitative points around the mechanical discussion was to just finish up my posts on them, which is why I said I'd circle back.

[Prism]

I felt strongly that [the best way to explain]

why

I hated the qualitative points around the mechanical discussion was to just finish up my posts on them, which is why I said I'd circle back.

EBWOP

I don't think I need the walk anymore but I do have to start packing for a flight in a few hours. I'll be around.

[Prism]

Should also note that my instinct was to scumread the "trying to understand" bit but I think the disconnect means I should allow for some leeway, and arguably showed more goodwill than bad.

[Save The Dragons]

Hi folks

Will get to this game when I can maybe later today/tomorrow

[Prism]

IV, why are you currently voting in the group of 6?

[Pavowski]

Pav, given that it is public information, is there any chance you can put the hoods into one of the opening posts?

I wanted to consult with the oracle before taking this action. The neighborhood playerlists are now public.

I have declined to provide names for the neighborhoods. That much is up to you all

[Brighter Puppy]

IV, why are you currently voting in the group of 6?

cause its best play

Pav, given that it is public information, is there any chance you can put the hoods into one of the opening posts?

I wanted to consult with the oracle before taking this action. The neighborhood playerlists are now public.

I have declined to provide names for the neighborhoods. That much is up to you all

mod secretly approves of my naming convention but doesn't want to appear to play favorites

[Kuriyama]

what do you like about dwlee?

[Prism]

Okay, I'm getting on my flight, you're all safe to start posting again.

[Todoroki]

Hey guys, running a fever and slept for the last several hours, and all I want to do is go back to sleep.. Probably going to leave the reigns of this hydra to Marci's capable hands.

[Todoroki]

Hey guys, running a fever and slept for the last several hours, and all I want to do is go back to sleep.. Probably going to leave the reigns of this hydra to

Marci's

Notty's capable hands.

Sorry.

[Kuriyama]

Hope you feel better soon!

[Save The Dragons]

Feel better soon, VOTE: todoroki

I give 0 shits which hood we lim from I'm just gonna scumhunt

[Save The Dragons]

Fire town prism town I wanna say IV town

[Save The Dragons]

Kuriyama seems town as well

[Pavowski]

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