Open 843 - Divide & Conquer - Game Over!

[innocentvillager]

That's disappointing IV.

I told Firebringer that you would succeed in our little test of not just insta-1v1-ing MC Esther and prove how much townier you are by going above your station and considering the whole game.
But imagine my disappointment when you just say you couldn't care less about that.

- Norwee

ah cool, shade time

i don't know what you were testing/why you expected town!me to play a certain way that fits your agenda. but AT this point my value added here is taking down confirmed scum. I can add some value on who is scum in the big hood but i doubt i will be able to get it right with more than 20-30% accuracy when there's 5 people here.

i simply feel like the best thing for town to do is kill in me/esther, especially fmpov but even objectively. I was planning on jumping into 1v1 today and dying next day regardless of how the battle went. im not someone who cases tf out of people or has godly reads and expects everyone to postmortem sheep me - that's just not realistically going to happen/where i can best spend my limited effort these days.

If town is set on killing in big hood, i will look and add my two cents. but we will have to resolve me/esther the next day. or the next day. The chance of autowin here is simply not that high and i don't want to 2v3 tomorrow because that's just really bad. The value of whatever associatives we come up I just don't feel are that useful as they can be easily manipulated. anyway I'm rambling - this is my opinion fmpov and if town really wants to kill big hood whatever i'll go along with it

[innocentvillager]

obviously i dont have much on innocentvillager and dont really expect to survive the day. imma iso him later (phoneposting at a friend's rn), i mentioned my main questionmark over him yesterday (although tbh on reflection im not actually sure how much i stand by it, again, gonna need a reread). i also felt that his concern over e-1 seemed really fake, i didnt mention that second point at the time, mostly because i was sick of being told i was hedging.

VOTE: innocentvillager

ya this first sentence feels fake af looking back

clearly she was going to put in the effort looking back. What kind of town says that and then proceeds to suddenly up the activity across like 5 pages? this post implies there's not much fight in her but she's out here grinding. Which I RESPECT IT dawg the AtE game is strong there. But in context it's scummy and just not coming from a real headspace.

[Prism]

lmao maybe i should consider the all-town wagon theory, because at this point i feel more like im being encouraged to spam the thread repeating the same "yes, i did explicitly say im asking from my perspective" points ad nauseum than i am getting a real answer to a question whose basic premises i think ive outlined pretty explicitly.

i think i am town.
i think maf are on the wagon.
the above two makes you and dunn town.
scum!dwlee, knowing my alignment and reasonably assuming i believe maf to be on the wagon, would have the ability to determine this for themself.
scum!dwlee is therefore advocating for clearing puppy and dunn in advocating for a three-group flip day three.
is it more likely that scum!dwlee simply hadnt thought this through, or doesnt care about clearing a player, than that prism is mafia?

again, for i think the eightieth time at this point, from my perspective?

I think this is batshit insane FWIW

1. The entire chain of clearing based off of your flip is ???. Dunnstral literally showed up right after the wagon was hammered, and IV was in no danger. Brighter was committed to voting in 6 and at no point was IV in any danger. This is significantly more persuasive reversed to be about your slot being scum, which was actually a viable wagon.
2. dwlee assuming first that you will come to the two clear conclusion is an even bigger ?????? and second worried that town will buy it,

based off of your play Day 1

, is batshit crazy.
3. dwlee has a 50%+ chance of losing on the spot if we voted in 6 today and knows that from 6hood

[innocentvillager]

I'm leaning IV as scum but can see it being mc esther as well.

I'm thinking Dwlee of Save the Dragons in the big hood

why?

[Prism]

EBWOP

2. dwlee assuming first that you will come to the two clear conclusion is an even bigger ?????? and second be worried that town will buy it and he will be PoE'd by essentially clears,

all of this based off of your play Day 1

, is batshit crazy.

[Prism]

this post implies there's not much fight in her but she's out here grinding. Which I RESPECT IT dawg the AtE game is strong there.

I think you're in for a very rude awakening.

[innocentvillager]

gth here's where im at

{puppy} - approaching obvtown tonally/energy and doesn't endgame anyway. kill with fire before elo but there's no value added for me here saying this.
{prism} - Prism's confident bloodthirst for Todoroki yesterday was weird and putting him back at E1 was bad too. Yes it wasn't actually E1 but he thought it was functionally. im not gonna pretend to know prism meta inside and out but meta-wise everything else the slot has done seems tonally townie though. im not as confident here as puppy and it feels more likely he was just tunneled on todo.
{dwlee} - still don't think scum!dwlee BoPs themselves early on me for no reason but i have zero opinion on anything else they've done
{dunnstral, std} - i guess it's in this tier? neither player has done much but STD went for the kill immediately when we had plenty of time left but I almost don't think scum do nothing all game and then quickhammer for lols. It's possible though. Dunnstral has done nothing all game but shade me once which is just null for him - ive seen him do this as town and scum too.

[innocentvillager]

this post implies there's not much fight in her but she's out here grinding. Which I RESPECT IT dawg the AtE game is strong there.

I think you're in for a very rude awakening.

what do you mean?

[Prism]

I will weigh in more later. This has me wanting to do more extensive meta of esther, who I am very familiar with as town but have never seen as scum.

Brighter has harped very repeatedly on the point that scum is counting on us to not be able to work together, which again strikes me the wrong way along with the fullthroated defense that I don't think is really justified.

[Prism]

this post implies there's not much fight in her but she's out here grinding. Which I RESPECT IT dawg the AtE game is strong there.

I think you're in for a very rude awakening.

what do you mean?

...Did you find the rest of her posting as without any fight in her?

It is arguably a last ditch flail, but that is not my current impression.

[innocentvillager]

uh read my post again i think you are misinterpreting it?

[Prism]

Very fair and deserved criticism.

[innocentvillager]

Very fair and deserved criticism.

??

[Prism]

Still not sure I buy the point. Town absolutely starts from a place of demoralization only to catch inspired fire.

[Prism]

Very fair and deserved criticism.

??

I skipped around the post and definitely missed your larger point. You have my sincere apologies.

[innocentvillager]

uh lol it's fine, i do that too

your posting confused me a lot for a second but whatever

obviously i dont have much on innocentvillager and dont really expect to survive the day. imma iso him later (phoneposting at a friend's rn), i mentioned my main questionmark over him yesterday (although tbh on reflection im not actually sure how much i stand by it, again, gonna need a reread). i also felt that his concern over e-1 seemed really fake, i didnt mention that second point at the time, mostly because i was sick of being told i was hedging.

VOTE: innocentvillager

Still not sure I buy the point. Town absolutely starts from a place of demoralization only to catch inspired fire.

are you saying im scum here...?

for your point like maybe? i mean fmpov that's just not what happened lol but idk i don't think it happens that drastically and quickly. even objectively i would just say more likely it's some sort of subconscious AtE to curry favor but wtf do i know. i just came in ready to fight from the get go and my opponent starts out by basically admitting defeat before spamming 3 pages so the approach just doesn't make sense to me.

[innocentvillager]

i just reiso'd dwlee and yeah i literally have no opinion on their posting. maybe the BoP on me early was to pocket me honestly so idk if i townlean them that much anymore. it's like borderline unreadable and i would want to see more from that slot because they definitely can obvtown when they put in the effort on later days

[Prism]

I was reacting specifically to your point that it was implausible town behavior. I am not the best representative sample but I have done such drastic motivation swings frequently.

I think it is plausible for esther-town with some reservations that lead me to defer until I can work back over more comprehensively.

Historically, I have placed great value in personal reactions to me and aggressively pursuing anything I felt was off-key. While I have had some spectacular hits, I have also had several recent disasters of misses and Todoroki, who I was certain was the one player I

did

have this on, is the nail in the coffin.

It would be very easy for me to assume several points, in particular the strategic angle, are in bad faith, but I increasingly think this is a mistake.

[Dwlee99]

VOTE: MC esther

I think she is simultaneously trying to pocket me and set me up to look like her partner if she gets flipped. Her read on me is arguably TMI cause I probably say vote in small group as scum anyway

[Prism]

How confident are you that IV is town?

[Prism]

I will be absent most of the day, but I will try to check in. We have plenty of time right now and should use it.

My focus is primarily going to be on esther/IV but I will try to circle back in the group of 6 when I have time. Brighter is most likely town by default but I would like to be very rigorous moving forward.

[Dwlee99]

I feel decent about IV town

[Save The Dragons]

lazystd wants to scumread esther for the multiposting which almost seems like desperation but i'll try to be less lazy

to be clear on the hammer it was always something i was going to do because i scumread todoroki and i was waiting for dunnstral to post before doing it but when presented with the scumread i reacted emotionally and hammered right away. it was always happening.

let's not forget that todoroki was scummy as hell. i think it's possible that the wagon was town driven by prism/kuriyama/myself or at least reinforced by belief in the others (at least for me; i thought both kuriyama and prism were town and both of them scumreading todoroki reinforced my belief they would turn up scum

i think it's just dwlee lurking d1 because they were scum and didn't need to do much

i also never make that kill there kuriyama was tring me for writing the story in the PT

[Save The Dragons]

you can argue i did nothing yesterday but i was pushing todoroki in my own way

[Save The Dragons]

which obviously was wrong but i believed in it