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[morph the cat]

Vote Count 3-3

SirCakez

(1): Lady Lambdadelta

T3

(1): SirCakez

Rogue

(1): The Bombay

Not Voting

(6): StrangeMatter, T3, Rogue, mastina, That Idiot Ivan, Shiro

With 9 alive it takes 5 to eliminate

Deadline: January 26, 2:00 PM US Eastern Time.

Countdown: (expired on 2022-01-26 12:00:00)

Mod Notes:

Mastina is v/la through Jan 21
-

[That Idiot Ivan]

Suripoko came in trolling from the get-go. I suspect they planned to be spotlit from the start and use their self-redirect to do the N1 kill with minimal interference.

They might have been trying to protect Cakez or T3, but I think N1 kill plus confusion to the enemy was more the drift of things.

[The Bombay]

regardless, i want people to look at day 1 and decide, if Dwlee claims and we believe Dwlee's claim and don't kill them...

who would we kill after as a result?

Just skimmed through day 1, and I just don't think that this was ever something the Poooky/Ydra were thinking about. No one was particularly close to dying other then Dwlee.

Vote Count 1-15

[img]-[/img]

Dwlee99

(7): Lady Lambdadelta, T3, SirCakez, Shiro, mastina, That Idiot Ivan, Suripoko

SirCakez

(1): jjh927

T3

(1): Dwlee99

Lady Lambdadelta

(1): skitter30

Not Voting

(3): Rogue, StrangeMatter, The Bombay

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to eliminate.

Deadline: January 15, Midnight US Eastern Time.

Countdown: (expired on 2022-01-14 21:00:00)

Mod Notes:
Combined Mod ISO for vote counts

Malakittens head of Rogue v/la
skitter30 v/la until Sunday night
An error in VC 1-13 was fixed, the vote counter accidentally grabbed the hurt tag as a vote.
-

An Elimination Has Been Achieved!

There simply was not a counter wagon.

You, me, Rogue, and Ivan were all very safe.

T3 had some scum reads prior to 483, but a lot of people (including us) reversed their reads on him immediately following.


StrangeMatter and Shiro seemed like almost non-entities Day 1, which does leave room for them to be turned on, but there was not much to indicate that it was going to happen.

Maybe Mastina? Maybe Cakez? Both had few people voice scum reads on them, but no one was pushing very hard.

[The Bombay]

I don't know. : - (

Does this game line up with notsciences scum games? I'm so confused what to think right now can someone help?

[That Idiot Ivan]

Does it line up with his town game? Is he incapable of being tricky?

[That Idiot Ivan]

Make a case for them being town here? Am genuinely curious.

[The Bombay]

I don't know.

[T3]

Is your role worded basically the same as Dwlee's, just with the cop swapped out for doc?

@T3

ya

[T3]

T3 why were you so resistant to claiming? And why didn't you stick up for Dwlee?

i was reticent because i wanted to soft pr and all that so i could get niked

[T3]

i was bluffing that i had a secret reason

[T3]

i never knew that dwlee was the other player.

[marcistar]

Why are you lying?

[marcistar]

FUCK ME IT HAS THE SAME STYLE.

[The Bombay]

THATS ENOUGH POSTING FOR THE YEAR THAT EMBARASSES ME TOO MUCH AH..

I WAS DOING SO WELL NOOO I WANNA CRY.

[The Bombay]

i never knew that dwlee was the other player.

As a result of the chess game, Dwlee should be eliminated.

"As a result of" implies you knew, or had strong reason to suspect he was a player of the game.

tbh i just realized that my logic may be a little shaky, but i think they tmi'ed something about the chess game
so i'd like dwlee to claim what he knows about the chess game.

more specifically, i think that dwlee should claim their color in the chess game.

These?? No way you "never knew that dwlee was the other player."

[The Bombay]

I feel like this is just an argument over the term "knew"

T3 already explained that he figured out that Dwlee was the other chess player because he revealed the game had a victory condition that was different then normal chess rules.

~Luke

[mastina]

mastina, I'd also suggest you think about why if you're town I'd have to be about the least savvy and most disorganized scum player around to let things unfold as they did. Yes, WIFOM is a thing, but there's plausible deniability and then there's leaving gold bars unattended at a Wild West saloon.

Respectfully, what in your play makes it bad play for scum?

LLD is poisoned--she's set to die at the end of the day.
This,

in spite of

you having conftown'd her.
This,

in spite of

you having (allegedly)

bodyguarded

her.

LLD is going to die, and there's nothing anyone can do to prevent it.

And the funny thing is:

it's possible the poison was used on me to let me live long enough to clear Mastina, and not long enough to suspect her.

LLD said this about me, but who fits this better than me, Ivan?

You fit the description better than I do;
"it's possible the poison was used on me long enough to clear Ivan, and not long enough to suspect him".

What in that would be bad scumplay, Ivan?

Serious question, because I don't see anything inherently bad about it.

Now, granted!

I will admit: there's a decent chance you are town anyway.

I did some crunching on possible scumteams (I wanted to post it in this post but given the time, I might need to delay it because it's late and I'm tired, sorry), and you're only scum in a small small fraction of them. You don't fit as a Bombay scumbuddy (D2 makes this obvious), you being a StrangeMatter scumbuddy is only possible if the scumteam vastly vastly VASTLY and

terribly

misread the gamestate (basically, the ONLY way it's possible is if the scumteam erroneously thought that I was an easier mislim to push D2 than SirCakez, and that

would

be incompetence from a scum-Ivan which is why I am pretty much ruling this one out), so the only initial Ivan-scum worlds are,
{Ivan, SirCakez}; {Ivan, T3}; {Ivan, Rogue}. And that's just from memory, I might be able to narrow it down even more by doing additional research and crossreferencing and such. (But honestly, the only scumteam I think is very very highly probable is Ivan-SirCakez and in that instance we always eliminate SirCakez first and check for SirCakez scumbuddies after he flips scum.)

But while there's a decent chance you are town anyway--I'm not going to bet the game on you being town especially if SirCakez is in fact scum like I believe he is.

The fact that Shiro informed you you would be loyal prior to your action means that any strongman modification you could have placed on yourself would have pierced through the Loyal modifier.

Respectfully, LLD:
1: If I had the ability to tack on a strongman modifier, I'd have used it to

kill

you. Not message you through a loyal. Killing you is a

better

version of messaging you. Killing you means that I can claim to have messaged you, but didn't need to actually have messaged you. Literally nobody would be able to prove me otherwise. Because with me having said I'd target you, and you dead, nobody would know otherwise.

Plus, as an aside: if I had a strongman messenger? I'd have claimed it. I don't fucking lie about my role, and strongman-messenger isn't a scumclaim. Why isn't it a scumclaim? Well for a start: we have a proven Strongwilled Cop and a claimed Strongwilled Doc, so a strongman/strongwilled Messenger wouldn't be a scumclaim and would fit right in as a townclaim. And since I didn't claim messenger until D2, I'd have seen Dwlee's claim and known it was 100% totally and entirely safe to claim it, too. But I didn't, because I don't have a strongman messenger; I have a normal messenger that can and will fail if any blocking condition is met.

2: Does a strongman even pierce through Loyal? I don't think it does. Loyal causes your night action to fail if you don't target someone of the same alignment as you. Strongman causes you to pierce through blocking actions. But Loyal targeting a player of a different alignment isn't a blocking action. I suppose we can ask the mods;

MOD: if a player had a strongmanned action, and a loyal modifier to that action, and they targeted someone of a different alignment, would the Strongman cause the action to succeed or would the Loyal cause the action to fail?

3: If Shiro making me Loyal wasn't oneshot, I can just target literally any nonscum player and come tomorrow, if I am not roleblocked by scum (keeping in mind that we have both a jailkeeper and a watcher tonight so scum targeting me for a block is leaving both the jk and the watcher unblocked), I can confirm myself again tonight. Using a oneshot strongman to pierce through loyal

might

be possible (depending on the mod's ruling), but even you should agree that it's far far far less likely to have two strongmans to pierce through loyal, right?

4: On the note of saying I could've used a strongman on my messenger, I'd like to point out: there is an, unclaimed, source of poison on you. This makes it almost certainly a scum ability. There is also an, unclaimed, roleblock on you. This makes it definitely a scum ability. We have two scum left, and I am very much definitely a Messenger. For me to attach a Strongman to the messenger means that with only two scum alive, scum used

four

abilities

all on you

last night. FOUR abilities to target you last night, LLD. A strongman, a messenger, a poison, and a roleblock. Be honest--does that sound like it makes sense to you? Because to me that pretty blatantly violates Occam's Razor and general principles of scumplay.

5: But more than that, you should know DAMN well that this is my towngame. Like, you've SEEN my scumgame. You should really really REALLY know what my scumgame looks like. You've seen it more recently than most folks have in fact and you should know precisely what I do as scum and how night/day the difference is between my scumgame and my towngame.

Even if I

wasn't

conftown (and I think points 1-4 are pretty damn compelling in saying why it takes a flagrant violation of occam's razor to paint me as anything but), I wouldn't need to be conftown here; I should be obvtown anyway.

I realize that I don't generally vibe with you; I realize that I generally get in your way; etc. But when the outcome of the game is reliant on you being onpoint, you

should

need to realize why I shouldn't be on the elimination table, especially given the thing that you and I both know. (Which I will mention in a bit, but first...)

That's 5 kill immunities. I don't care how much poison is in this game, there are not 5 kill immunities.

Honorary point #6:
You're damn right there's not that many kill interferences. Your bulletproof, StrangeMatter's JK, Ivan's Bodyguard, Rogue's claim, T3's claim, Bombay's commute, and one more you forgot to list, that's literally SEVEN players with claimed killstop mechanics.

SEVEN of THIRTEEN players claiming roles that have killstop (or at least kill interference) mechanics.

Literally over HALF the players have claimed mechanics to interfere with kill mechanics.

There's AT LEAST one scum in there, possibly two.

And I am not a player who is among those.

As long as there's still 7 claimed kill interference players without a flipped scum in those players, I should not be the focus.

I am supposed to know something? and Ivan knows it too, but I have no memory? What?

Yes, think about what happens if I am eliminated. There's something which you should know will happen.

Now, after that thing happens, if scum either get lucky or happen to be in the know, they can take advantage of that thing which happens.

Even if we had the eliminations to spare (which we don't, we've got one, and that's it), we wouldn't actually have the eliminations to spare, at least not safely/reliably.

[mastina]

Do you think scum came in with a plan to avoid bussing Suripoko here?

From an entirely objective standpoint where only LLD and Shiro are conftown (even tho I

should

be, let's devil's advocate for a moment and pretend I'm not), that's pretty damn obviously impossible here.

The only teams with no bussing involved are:
{mastina, Ivan} (lol no)
{mastina, StrangeMatter} (okay technically possible I suppose?)
{mastina, Bombay} (lol no)
{Ivan, StrangeMatter} (only possible if the scumteam utterly botched D2 by vastly completely misreading the gamestate and thinking that I was a more viable mislim than SirCakez, which is to say: lol no)
{Ivan, Bombay} (lol no)
{StrangeMatter, Bombay} (N1 makes this a lol no)

I think all of these "lol no"s are fairly obvious and self-explanatory, but if you don't get why they are so obviously not a viable scumteam combo, I can go into why.

Since the only team that isn't a lol no is a team with me in it I know that it can't be the case and if you think that StrangeMatter is town then that should cement things as meaning that there's no truly possible scumteam with zero scum bussing.

Ergo, basically proven by the PoE, there is inherently, innately, a

requirement

for

at least

one scum bussing. There

cannot

be no scum bussing.

And look at the wagon order--the only conftown name there is Shiro at the

end

of the wagon.

Which implies a level of preplanned bussing of Suripoko.

The question isn't if there's bussing on Suripoko (there is).

It's "one, or two?", and which of them.

I honestly can see any of the three being scum in basically any combo. (Well not quite, again, I did some of the work last night but want to refine it.)

[That Idiot Ivan]

mastina, A) LLD poisoning isn't what I was talking about, B) LLD hasn't cleared me and I haven't asked her to, C) using a bunch of power in a mini to become 'conftown' with one miselim to spare is hardly bad scum play, D) you're wrong about what happens if you're eliminated, and it's really WTF for you to imply otherwise, E) I already asked the mod about strong vs. loyal modifiers privately and got the 'strong pierces loyal' answer; if they don't answer publicly, go ahead and try privately. That last one is to anyone, BTW. No need to take my word on it.

Why are you wasting your time answering a question I posed to Bombay intending to encourage them to look at the various votes for Suripoko and the naturalness thereof? You've been talking about putting up an analysis of who's likely scum. With two days left, maybe go there? Fuck refining it; if you're actually town, stop doing your normal thing of completely misreading me and get to talking about today's elim.

[mastina]

B) LLD hasn't cleared me

Ivan probably town at this point for me,

I'm willing to bet my game on it at least

.

C) using a bunch of power in a mini to become 'conftown' with one miselim to spare is hardly bad scum play

It's a violation of Occam's Razor.

It not only requires that all of those powers to exist, but for the scumteam to think to use them in that specific way when that specific way is contrived and convoluted. And I can tell you right here and now, scumastina does not think to pile on all scum actions onto a single player; in fact, her fear and paranoia of doubling down on something that won't work would, specifically, make her want to spread actions out. Maybe there's a player on this playerlist that would double down and put all on a single player. But it's certainly not me.

I do not think that way. I just don't. I literally can't think that way as scum. And since my message is something that I need to write, if I were scum, I would need to be involved in the scum's decision process--meaning that it's not something I would think of and I would object to as being too much "all eggs in one basket".

Which is simpler?

That I, as scum, have an unproven strongman modifier that I can attach to the messenger but either didn't or couldn't attach to the kill, knew that it would bypass being loyal, stacked literally all the scum power onto LLD, knowing that she would still have an entire day phase where she could EVEN IF I WAS TOWN still eliminate my scumbuddy, leaving me unable to use a third shot of the messenger unless said strongman modifier had a second shot, all for the chance at being falsely conftown'd, a gambit that frankly has a low chance of success because LLD and I have a poor meshing history...

...Or that I messaged LLD as a town with the Loyal modifier?

You're delusional if you say the former is simpler than the latter.

you're wrong about what happens if you're eliminated, and it's really WTF for you to imply otherwise

I'm pretty sure I'm not wrong? It'd require me outting the interaction but obviously I don't want to do that but I'm pretty damn sure I'm right about this?

My elimination causes something to happen. That something does not directly impact things, but has the potential to give the scum an advantage with bad town luck / good scum luck (or scum being in the know).

Unless the mechanic involved was a one-time thing, but I was under the impression it'd happen on my elimination too.

Why are you wasting your time answering a question I posed to Bombay intending to encourage them to look at the various votes for Suripoko and the naturalness thereof? You've been talking about putting up an analysis of who's likely scum. With two days left, maybe go there? Fuck refining it; if you're actually town, stop doing your normal thing of completely misreading me and get to talking about today's elim.

What's a waste about it?

I am giving extra info. The prompt for me giving extra info need not be directed at me. In fact most of the time I give info, it's because I see something directed at someone else, but I have my own thoughts that I want to give in spite of it having not been directed at me.

But if you want the raw version.

Sure, you can have it.

This was typed during N2, keep in mind, and has not been touched since then and thus, has not been updated with the new info, because I am literally an hour overdue from going to bed now (should've gone to bed before 4 am, is now almost 5 am), so I need to sleep the moment I hit submit on this.


There's exactly three possible worlds we live in:
-Both scum were off of Cakez/Suripoko. I find this doubtful, as it requires zero scum bussing and no scum voting SirCakez who in this situation would be town. So, basically impossible.
-Both scum bussed Suripoko.
-One scum bussed Suripoko and one was on neither Suripoko nor SirCakez.

The fundamental truth of those being the only possible worlds will be my foundation going forward.

We know the alignment of everyone voting SirCakez, the full spread: jjh 3p, Suripoko scum, and me town.

So, given that, there's precisely three worlds possible:

Scum didn't bus or vote SirCakez, being entirely among the mastina voters and Not Voting players. Given that LLD was voting me, that'd be 2/3 of the remaining players. This is the scenario which I find basically impossible. It'd mean that scum didn't want the towncred for bussing, but didn't pile onto SirCakez, who'd be town in this scenario. Also, pretty sure that this combo contains Bombay + Ivan, so yeah, this is NOT the world that we live in.

Scum double bussed Suripoko. Given that you voted Suripoko, Shiro, that'd narrow down the scumpool to 2/3 of {Rogue, T3, SirCakez}.
I'm most suspicious of all three of them overall, so this is probably actually the most likely, ESPECIALLY if SirCakez is a strong PR. Suripoko was a really weak scum PR, so was probably not a big loss.

The final world is one scum bussing, with one scum voting neither SirCakez or Suripoko. (This world is made most likely from SvS wagons yesterday.)

This would mean 1/3 of the Suripoko voters, and 1/3 of the mastina+NVers.

Suripoko

(4): SirCakez, Rogue, T3,

Shiro

SirCakez (3):

jjh927

,

mastina

,

Suripoko

mastina

(3):

Lady Lambdadelta

, That Idiot Ivan, StrangeMatter
Not Voting (1): The Bombay

GENERAL FINDING:

Unless we're living in World One, there

must

be

at least

one scum bussing. It's required, it's mandatory. It's genuinely necessary. 1-2 scum.

GENERAL SUSPICION:

That the scum voting Suripoko did so with TMI.

WORLD ONE:

No scum bussing; no scum on SirCakez

WORLD ONE SCUMTEAM COMBOS:

{That Idiot Ivan, The Bombay}: I don't think I need to explain why this scumteam is impossible. Their roles/claims and play all tells the entire story.
{StrangeMatter, The Bombay}: Given StrangeMatter jailkept Bombay N1 and Bombay did not know about this, this scumteam is imo impossible. Their interactions suggest not-scumbuddies.

{That Idiot Ivan, StrangeMatter}: The only scumteam combo that isn't outright impossible, but still rather unlikely. For this to be the scumteam, the scumteam would have needed to have not bussed Suripoko for towncred and yet, not hopped onto SirCakez in an attempt to save Suripoko.

There is

one

way it

could

be possible, I'll admit: if the scumteam had a misread of the gamestate. If the scumteam thought that I was an easier mislim than SirCakez thanks to your doubt on me and LLD's push on me, then they could've thought that piling onto me was better than piling onto SirCakez. So it's not

impossible

, but that badly misreading the gamestate is something I think is incredibly

improbable

.

WORLD TWO:

Both Scum Bussing

WORLD TWO SCUMTEAM COMBOS:

{SirCakez, Rogue}--I need to investigate this team combo. SirCakez looks like scum and Rogue's endorsement of my elimination when this is my towngame and notty should know it is suspect, but I need to look at the viability of it.
{SirCakez, T3}--this is an incredibly likely combo imo. I don't think it's coincidence that these two slots were the only two slots which were pressured to claim but then refused to do so.
{Rogue, T3}--I need to investigate this team combo. Rogue's endorsement of my elimination when this is my towngame and notty should know it is suspect, T3's lack of defense of me is suspect, and T3's lack of claim is suspect.

WORLD THREE:

One Scum Bussing; One scum off of both Suripoko and SirCakez

WORLD THREE SCUMTEAM COMBOS:

{SirCakez, That Idiot Ivan}--literally writes itself as a scumteam. The two have been hard-defending each other the entire game, and while they ended up voting separately, were voting together for quite a while and they used the same logic on Suripoko. While Suripoko flipped scum, I genuinely think that the push on Suripoko was a case of TMI.
{SirCakez, StrangeMatter}--I need to investigate this to be sure, but if I recall correctly, StrangeMatter was suspicious of SirCakez. If I was right about that, this team would be unlikely.
{SirCakez, The Bombay}--Given Bombay's suspects, I am pretty damn sure this scumteam is incredibly unlikely, borderline impossible.
{Rogue, That Idiot Ivan}--I need to investigate this team combo. Rogue's endorsement of my elimination when this is my towngame and notty should know it is suspect, and Ivan's play still looks scum to me and the claim I still think is suspect.
{Rogue, StrangeMatter}--I need to confirm this but I think StrangeMatter had suspicion on Rogue? If so this would be unlikely as a combo.
{Rogue, The Bombay}---I need to confirm this but I think The Bombay had suspicion on Rogue? If so this would be unlikely as a combo.
{T3, That Idiot Ivan}--quite likely as a combo. T3's lack of defense of me is suspect, and T3's lack of claim is suspect; Ivan's play still looks scum to me and the claim I still think is suspect.
{T3, StrangeMatter}--I need to confirm this but I think StrangeMatter had suspicion on T3? If so this would be unlikely as a combo.
{T3, The Bombay}--yeah no, Bombay's push on T3 means not scumbuddies here.

So compiling scumteams by most likely to least likely, initially, I get:

MOST LIKELY:
{SirCakez, That Idiot Ivan}

{SirCakez, T3} = {SirCakez, Rogue}

{T3, That Idiot Ivan}

{Rogue, That Idiot Ivan} = {Rogue, T3}

{Rogue, The Bombay} = {Rogue, StrangeMatter} = {T3, StrangeMatter} = {SirCakez, StrangeMatter} (but all of these pending reread to confirm)

{That Idiot Ivan, StrangeMatter}
^^^^^^^^
LEAST LIKELY
(If I didn't list it I am outright removing it as a possibility)

So I've got 11 scumteam combos possible right now, I'll narrow it down when I can.

[SirCakez]

we can do T3 idgaf

You should gaf.

And Bombay, I didn't make anyone bulletproof. I bodyguarded.

sorry my WIM for this game is just so dead because I'm frustrated with my role and was hoping somebody would be able to help me figure it out but no one did and I'm lowkey kinda annoyed I'm still a suspect after Suri went in trying to kill me yesterday

[SirCakez]

VOTE: mastina
I think I'll circle back here given 1399, that logic means that mastina basically has to be scum

[SirCakez]

Cause otherwise Why Hammer Dwlee Without A Claim?

There's only one reason to do that and it's self sacrificial. Suripoko had to know they would die as a result of this when they did it. So what do they gain?

except we nearly didn't kill them yesterday because people were like "Lol Pooky does this as town"

[SirCakez]

VOTE: mastina
I think I'll circle back here given 1399, that logic means that mastina basically has to be scum

or I can also circle back to Rogue given that they have been basically MIA the last few days

basically I'm saying I'll lim one of (Mastina, Rogue, T3)

[SirCakez]

The two have been hard-defending each other the entire game,

ummm this has literally not happened this game