Open 843 - Divide & Conquer - Game Over!

[Brighter Puppy]

fat american here ready to party

[Brighter Puppy]

Thoughts?

i think if you really believe that me and inno both have such strong associations attached to us, you want a small-group elim

i don't.
i want to win the game today if possible anything less is just useless to me.

i also don't want to be in this game longer and be proven wrong on any of my other reads when i feel like im doin pretty well..

[Brighter Puppy]

Explanation: mc esther scum should probably hammer me there but didn't

I think dunnstral is scum

wouldn't hammering just make esther more scummy. Esther hasn't argued for u being scum basically all day as far as i can tell

[Brighter Puppy]

yo esther why can't it be u and dwlee again.
Only way im seeing dwlee here is if its dwlee/IV right now and ur opposed to this possibility and idgi

[mc esther]

iv/dwlee is fine to me afaicr; i was opposed to it earlier but dwlee (lmao) told me im wrong.

i dont think that dwlee wouldnt have a path to victory if they bussed me today. the only real way i see to explain the bus would be "we're so heavily losing here that we may as well gamble on a high-risk strategy"; but even this doesnt really work, in this world i would hammer dwlee for the same reason.

[mc esther]

should say, "i dont think that dwlee would"; idk how the double negative slipped in there

[Dunnstral]

in this world i would hammer dwlee for the same reason.

If we eliminate the mafia in the group of 6 today, town has enough eliminations remaining to eliminate everybody in the small group, meaning they automatically win.

[mc esther]

dwlee said earlier that if they were my buddy and bussed me, they'd win by pushing dunn and std. i dont think this is realistic, but it makes it hard to make this sort of call -- dwlee and i disagree on so many fundamental things like this that i cant really put myself in their head in order to make this sort of case.

p-edit: huh, okay, yeah i guess i wouldnt. does that make dwlee literally my only possible buddy? like, a few people have said that i probably hammer town!dwlee there, so if im maf, does that also make dwlee maf?

[mc esther]

unfortunately, at least two players dont really believe my townflip clears dunn, otherwise three-group flip would be amazingly informative right now.

[innocentvillager]

VOTE: InnocentVillager

can you explain what your problem with me is? this is like the 4th time I’m asking dude

[innocentvillager]

I think maybe IV should be flipped

wait, i think there are numbers of this now? dwlee/esther/prism/dunn?

no

[Save The Dragons]

iv any thoughts on the game besides people voting you

[Save The Dragons]

i don't know that scum!esther hammers town!dwlee there especially when complaining about my hammer yesterday, and scum!esther certainly doesn't hammer scum!dwlee there

[mc esther]

i think iv expected to coast by today lmao

[Prism]

I am currently inclined to flip him but I still intend on doing my due diligence. I don't really have a timeline, though. I am getting increasingly concerned about my ability to stay balanced & emotionally level and might just do what I did in MELO and block out strict 1/2 hour playtimes.

Very convenient stopping point for IV.

[Prism]

Assuming we wind up flipping in 3, Brighter I am sorry I have not really been able to accommodate for your preference, and while it would be justified please do not burn down my house if it ends up in a loss.

I am very impressed with your play this game (both heads!) regardless of alignment. My votes have not been out of disrespect or stubborn dismissal.

[Prism]

I did not like dwlee's posts on the last page.

I posted it for consideration but did not myself find the hammer argument decisive, because while under threat Esther has been on the upswing and a flip in 6 means she has a good chance of winning tomorrow. She also just can't afford it if her partner is Dragons or Dunnstral.

They have not at all tackled the IV side of the equation. Last we checked IV was still town.

[Prism]

I stopped after I went to verify 859 and did not realize 861 existed until I went back and ISO'd last night.

I don't like that Dwlee is advocating to elim in the small hood for info but can't pinpoint what that info is, and won't try to do so.

850 is the entire reason a flip in 3 is better to begin with, and I while perhaps a bit too removed I think 654 had a point. I think you didn't like this post nor the followup, and I still disagree. The game definitely changes even if you can't run it all in advance.

I don't like their fake looking analysis of their own kill choices:

I also wouldn't kill kuriyama though and your reason sounds more made up

If I were scum one of the puppies or prism would be very dead right now

As it seems pretty unfounded.

I concur. Kuriyama is always going to be a threat and even while I doubted them they were at the top of my reads at the end of the day. While there are arguments for us individually, it is unclear why Brighter or myself were comparatively completely better.

[Prism]

Am i correct in assuming that you as scum would more likely view an scumread from Esther as something to be ignored, than if you were town and feel forced to respond to it?

I don't think this is correct, but it is very situation-dependent. I would likely be worried about esther/Todoroki haunting me from the grave in 3 way. Situationally, I save dismissive approaches more for 1v1s or Elo.

There are a variety of tools I use to deal with pushes on me as scum, but most of them involve intentionally leaning into the person's scumread to make them bite off too much and get dismissed by the rest of town, or playing a game of chicken so that I can fake tilt and get townread for it.

Pushing IV as the scum with 0 explication and full knowledge they cannot logistically get flipped with way votes were set

Is it my fault they can't be flipped?

Yes, though the fault is town-wide. No player in the 3 could get flipped without a self-hammer or someone from 6 switching, which means it was at the time only possible to either vote town in 3, regardless of which it was, or to force a vote in 6. I think you are usually very attuned mechanically and aware of what votes are required.

And when did I start pushing IV?

You have said a few different times IIRC that he was your pick for scum in 3. "Pushing" might have implied that you were advocating for his vote today, which was not the case, as you obviously were pushing for a vote in 6.

[Prism]

I think those are all of the questions for me.

I would like more from Dunnstral on the shift in 987. An explication on the room for doubt in small reads, why the initial reads were what they were and what changed over time, would be appreciated.

[Prism]

My plan essentially is to work through esther/IV ISOs and meta if I feel it would help. I would invite others to do the same.

If I feel motivated/something about the ISOs & votes tell me I should, I will also work through the 6 but I don't think there's a serious point in doing so right now and would be overkill. I can evaluate overnight as required.

[Prism]

Brighter, I will try and talk to you about esther later, am very willing to hear the concerns on the slot. I think they are playing very, very well if they are scum but it is not out of the realm of reason.

IV's content early was very impressive IMO. The last check-in in particular is egregious and I think he would have been doing aerials to get the scum flipped in a 1v1 basically right from the start.

[Prism]

(And I know you have posts typed up on it that I need to revisit already)

[mc esther]

i think we should kill in group of 3 first

i get that killing the scum in the group of 6 is autowin but i feel it's just so unlikely

i feel like killing in group of 3 first is better because we are higher chance to hit scum earlier. we are guaranteed even we completely suck and kill two townies d1,d2 to kill scum at 2 v 3 then turns into a f3 elo. By that point we'll have associatives to look back on. We're basically guaranteed a flip if we focus our attention on the the g3.

If I don't correctly read IV this game I should probably end up BoP'd

VOTE: dwlee99

i feel as though killing in group of 6 is a waste of time and we are gambling too hard. if we hit town we are not much closer to solving that group. i think someone would need to be really scummy or the group of 3 would have to be really hard for us to not want to go group of 3.

VOTE: dunnstral

this point's already been litigated, but i think there's some detail missing

IV, why are you currently voting in the group of 6?

honestly i did forget i was voting dwlee who i think is town i blame pav's unreadable vc color (n.o seems like im the only one with this issue)

also idgaf about the group of 6/3 thing rly rn, i loosely prefer g3 because im in it but i don't want to get caught up in it anymore

doesnt even bother discussing his dunn vote lmao. i dont really buy "dgaf about the group of 6/3 thing" as an explanation, given earlier stronger phrases like "so unlikely" and "waste of time"; sure, i believe he didnt care in the sense that he didnt view it as worth arguing about, i believe that he didnt care in the sense that he'd vote six if the only viable wagon he liked was in the six. but neither of those things are relevant factors for these votes. this also ties in with my later/earlier (depending on where we're counting from, lmao) observation about his me/dunn solve -- which is the one place where his "someone would need to be really scummy" condition would actually kick in as a reason to vote six, but is the only place where he acted in accordance with his stated beliefs about voting three (when prompted lmao).

[Prism]

It is probably good for you to know that my 238 came after IV's "says vote in 3 but votes in 6" progression was pointed out by Dunnstral in the 6 hood.

I am not sold that it is not a partner interaction but that is a question to me for another day.