Mini Theme 2255 | UPick a Normal | Endgame

[Mizzytastic]

Official Votecount 3.1

Scorpious (3): Dwlee99, House, Greeting

[E-3]

Dwlee99 (1): mastina
Titus (1): Enchant

Not Voting (5): Galron, Taly, Titus, ɀefiend, Scorpious

With 10 players alive, it takes 6 votes to achieve an eliminaton.

Day 3 will end in (expired on 2022-01-31 14:55:00).

[Enchant]

But really, there's questions appearing in my mind.

Why mafia didn't roleblock you or za...well Jailkeeper.

They could simple RB JK and kill you, without needing wasting kills on protect. Why didn't?

Even if mafia are fools and decided to roleblock someone else, then why they still attacked you instead of JK.


Hm.

[Galron]

If anyone is scum reading enchant, they are fools

[Scorpious]

If anyone is scum reading enchant, they are fools

Where are your reads right now?

[House]

Official Votecount 3.1

Titus (1): Enchant

*twitch*

If anyone is scum reading enchant, they are fools

Not exactly helping me townread them, and I'm the one that's been fighting their wagon.

[Galron]

Yeah, I don't even know where I am right now.

[Galron]

All I know is I've got to do something different.

[Greeting]

All I know is I've got to do something different.

So do I. But I feel like I'm taking to a wall here.

[Titus]

Design Process

Below are the steps I will take to produce a design.

UPick Submissions:

Players will submit their UPick submissions. This will be up to three Normal legal mafia and town power roles (so up to six roles in total), including any modifiers the player wants to include. A player may also submit a

Mafia Preference

or a

Town Preference

, and a

Vanilla Preference

if they would prefer to avoid a power role. Preferences are only that and may end up not being followed, but the role you receive will be a town power role or mafia power role from the ones you submitted, or the town vanilla or mafia goon roles presented below.

I realised.

I just realised why Scorpious could make sense as NK if real town.

Scorpious very early posted townpicks. Of course he didn't submit 1-Shot Neapolitan, but submitted JOAT and other roles. Mafia certanly could have notice that faster than we did (No one even noticed lol).

This is possible.

The way I see it is either zefiend and his team no killed for a miselimination or Scorpious is scum.

Right now, I am thinking massclaim might be in order. We've got a lot on the table and arguably a leashable jailkeeper

[Titus]

Official Votecount 3.1

Titus (1): Enchant

*twitch*

If anyone is scum reading enchant, they are fools

Not exactly helping me townread them, and I'm the one that's been fighting their wagon.

Whichever alignment Enchant is, the scumread is a pride read.

[Galron]

What about mastina?

You people are weird. Dwlee's town.

If

Dwlee99

is town then who is scum,

ɀefiend

or

Flea The Magician

?

Well, yes, if Dwlee is town then I would think those two would have a much much higher chance of being scum.

I am pretty damn sure there's a minimum of 1 town in {House, Enchant} with a fairly high chance both are town.

Given {Taly, Titus, Greeting, Scorpious} as town, that narrows down the scum to 2-3 (with a fairly high chance of being 3) of:

{Galron, zefiend, Dwlee99, Flea the Magician}.

(I admit my townread on Scorpious is not as strong as the townreads on Taly/Titus/Greeting, or for that matter House/Enchant but I still think Scorpious is unlikely to be scum here.)

If that pool of four has 2-3 scum in it, then one flipping town basically confirms the rest as scum imo.

Here she's got 1-2 scum among {Galron, zefiend, Dwlee99, Flea the Magician}. Flea was green, and I'm willing to believe zefiend's claim atp. So she's
confirming dwlee and me as scum. But she couches that prognostication with IF that group of four has 2-3 scum in it, which gives it faulty legs to begin with. So even though she's sticking with her plan, it's based on a faulty premise. She got there by assuming {Taly, Titus, Greeting, Scorpious} as town; and she got

there

by assuming at least one town (likely both) in {House, Enchant}.

The problem here is if one of {House, Enchant} is not town, how does that change the rest of the forecast? Or, if one or more of {Taly, Titus, Greeting, Scorpious} isn't town, how does that change the forecast?

And we know that Flea was town, can speculate pretty heavily that zefiend is town, and I know that I am town, so that leaves one scum in that grouping of four.

This rundown contains to many unanswered contingencies. All we're doing is working our way up mastina's layers from here:

I didn't mean technicalities, I meant the method itself. Some players submitted town preference, some submitted scum preference. Some townies might have submitted scum preference. What if scums lie about scum preference and those townies who submitted scum preference didn't lie and simply didn't get it? This is what I'm sceptical about.

Well about that.

If Enchant was serious about submitting scum preference, then I'm pretty sure that if the mod gave everyone their stated preference?

We have three scum who submitted scum preference and then either refused to state their alignment preference (Cheeky, Meg) or lied about it and said they had town preference. (Technically, they could lie and say 'no preference', but I've reason to believe that everyone who claimed 'No Preference' is actually town here, just off of who the names claiming no preference are. I don't think scum truthfully claimed no preference given Enchant, and I don't think scum lied about it being no preference given who the names are and basic psychology in mafia play in that mafia would be afraid to claim 'no preference' if they thought that claiming no preference would make them more likely to be seen as a scum candidate.)

Spoiler: Notes

TOWN

PREFERENCE:

mastina

House
Scorpious
Yume
Greeting
Flea the Magician
CheekyTeeky (after much resistance)
ɀefiend

NO ALIGNMENT PREFERENCE:

Taly
Titus
Galron

SCUM

PREFERENCE:

Enchant? (Not sure if serious)

PREFERENCE NOT YET STATED:

MegAzumarill

MAFIA ROLES

POOL:

1-Shot Strongman (mastina)
1-Shot Universal Backup (mastina)
Mafia PT Cop (mastina)
Informed Goon (Enchant)
Macho 1x Strongman (Enchant)
Mafia Rolecop (Enchant)
Mafia Ascetic Multitasking Rolestopper/Rolecop (House)
Mafia Ascetic Multitasking Hider/Watcher (House)
Ascetic Strongman (House)
Mafia Neapolitan (Taly)
Mafia Neighborizer (Taly)
Mafia Combined Rolecop, Loyal Neighborizer Loyal Doctor Traitor (Titus)
Mafia Combined Disloyal Universal Backup Encryptor (Titus)
Mafia Combined Personal Alien Mailman (Titus)
Ninja (Scorpious)
Mafia JOAT (Scorpious)
Mafia Roleblocker (Scorpious)
Mafia Loud Alien (Galron)
Mafia 2-shot Strongman (Galron)
Mafia Roleblocker (Yume)
Mafia RoleCop (Yume)
Mafia Neighbour (Yume)
Mafia Roleblocker (Greeting)
(Mafia (not specific)) Jailkeeper (Flea the Magician)
(not specific) Informed Goon (Flea the Magician)

MAFIA ROLE

FREQUENCY:

Strongman: x4
Rolecop: 4 (+2 variants)
Ascetic: 3
Roleblocker: 3 (+1 variant)
Rolestopper/Variant: 3
Universal Backup: 2
Neighborizer: 2 (+1 variant)
Informed: 2

PICKS NOT YET STATED:

MegAzumarill
CheekyTeeky

Between the players having stated town and the player refusing to state a preference, we have 9/13 players.

So what this tells me:

Taly

and Titus are town;
Galron is

probably

town.

If Enchant is town, which he probably is, then all three scum would be in those that didn't claim or claimed town.

Removing myself, that pool?
{House, Scorpious, Yume, Greeting, Flea the Magician, CheekyTeeky, ɀefiend, MegAzumarill}.

Of those players?

Greeting has no completed scumgames per their wiki. They have four towngames and zero scumgames. The preference for a towngame is probably thus true and accurate. So

Greeting is town

.

Scorpious's wiki leaves it unclear, but very loosely imo indicates that town is

slightly

more likely.

House I think has stated his town/scum preference before, but I sadly can't remember it and he has no real wiki so I have to keep him in the pool

for now

until I track it down.

Ditto for Flea; fae might've stated faer preference but I can't remember it.

Yume might've stated preference on one of her accounts but thanks to the number of them I can't track it down.

If Cheeky has stated her preference previously, I don't know it.

zefiend is impossible to track; ditto, for Meg.

So sadly, that doesn't narrow the pool down as much as I want, but it still helps as a

starting

point.

It gives us 3/7.5 names as scum from a narrowed list.

Not quite 50% odds of hitting scum, but 40% odds of hitting scum beats the default 25% we'd have otherwise (3/12).

And from this, we can get into the reads on players from that list.

{House,

Scorpious

, Yume, Flea the Magician, CheekyTeeky, ɀefiend, MegAzumarill}

Cheeky's play looks like scum;
Meg's play looks like scum.

Even if both are scum, that'd leave 1/4 of the remaining prime suspects as candidates.

What mastina is doing both scum!mastina and town!mastina could do; the act is merely Information Instead of Analysis, which is NAI. However there are some flaws, and although I have no way to prove it, what mastina says about what everyone submitted is not 100% true.

I submitted town preference overall, but all three of my scum roles were rejected (which seems ridiculous reading what some of y'all claim to submitted) -- so I was assigned a Vanilla preference if rolling scum.

I will also be keeping my own notes on people's claims, but if someone wants to neighborize me into mastina's PT so that I don't have to keep notes, it would be appreciated.

Not enough petty arguments to generate any reads yet.

This makes me lean town on zefiend.

Which leaves 1-3 scum in {House, Yume, Flea the Magician}.

I could see it being any of them, but while I can't read House worth a damn, loosely, I think his contributions are town. I think 102 was accurate regardless (if House is scum, he was the scum; otherwise, it's probably Meg), and find the Cheeky House vote there sus.

If I had to go gun to my head, I'd say that in {Yume, Flea, House}, towniest to scummiest it'd be House > Yume > Flea.

So right now, I'm thinking:

All 3 scum are in {CheekyTeeky, MegAzumarill, House, Yume, Flea the Magician};
CheekyTeeky and MegAzumarill have a high chance of being scum;
House is less likely scum;
There's 1-2 scum in {Yume, Flea the Magician};
There's basically a guaranteed scum, 1-2, in {CheekyTeeky, MegAzumarill}

.

And we keep hitting green, except for Cheeky who was green most likely hit by scum.

[Taly]

scumreading

mastina

is illegal

*pecks galron*

[Greeting]

I just realised. We have 10 players left, with a miselim Day 3 and a successful NK Night 3, we are down to 8 players Day 4. Miselimination Day 4 leads to 7 players Night 4 and a successful NK 6 players Day 5, of whom half will be scum.

So, if we miseliminate again, and the town Power Roles fail, next Day will be ELo.

Can someone please confirm if that is correct?

[Taly]

It is currently 7:3

If we mislim and town is Nked, it will be 5:3 D4.

And yeah that is elo. Shit.

[Titus]

Miselimination today takes us to 9, 3 scum
Assume successful NK, 8, 3 scum.
No elimination.
Successful NK, 7 alive, three scum.

A miselimination takes us to melo.

[Taly]

Titus

what's the benefit to massclaiming now and not next day phase?

[Greeting]

Thank you,

Taly

. It's 1:30 am and my brain only now started working.

Now, do we know how many town Power Roles we have?

[Titus]

I just realised. We have 10 players left, with a miselim Day 3 and a successful NK Night 3, we are down to 8 players Day 4. Miselimination Day 4 leads to 7 players Night 4 and a successful NK 6 players Day 5, of whom half will be scum.

So, if we miseliminate again, and the town Power Roles fail, next Day will be ELo.

Can someone please confirm if that is correct?

It is currently 7:3

If we mislim and town is Nked, it will be 5:3 D4.

And yeah that is elo. Shit.

Are you of the opinion that scum no killed to keep the miseliminations going or that scum are capitalizing on a Scorpious kill failing?

An off the wall kill isn't completely unheard of in a spot like this but unlikely.

[Titus]

Titus

what's the benefit to massclaiming now and not next day phase?

Leashing zefiend.

[Taly]

We can't determine nor accurately verify the number of PRs

[Taly]

I just realised. We have 10 players left, with a miselim Day 3 and a successful NK Night 3, we are down to 8 players Day 4. Miselimination Day 4 leads to 7 players Night 4 and a successful NK 6 players Day 5, of whom half will be scum.

So, if we miseliminate again, and the town Power Roles fail, next Day will be ELo.

Can someone please confirm if that is correct?

It is currently 7:3

If we mislim and town is Nked, it will be 5:3 D4.

And yeah that is elo. Shit.

Are you of the opinion that scum no killed to keep the miseliminations going or that scum are capitalizing on a Scorpious kill failing?

An off the wall kill isn't completely unheard of in a spot like this but unlikely.

I'm of the opinion that the scumkill was blocked somehow but

Scorpious

would not be my first guess for a target.

[Taly]

Titus

what's the benefit to massclaiming now and not next day phase?

Leashing zefiend.

Thinking of any consequences of claiming now?

[Greeting]

I'll get back to you in a second,

Titus

.

We can't determine nor accurately verify the number of PRs

We know that we had at least one with

CheekyTeeky

dead. And we know that there is a 62.5% of mafia having 3 power roles. We have two town PR claims,

ɀefiend

and

Scorpious

. Neither has been counterclaimed. Is there a way to figure out if town has more than 3 power roles given a balanced setup?

I need someone who is more experienced in mafia setups to help me with this. It's really important.

[House]

I still refuse to claim.

Ever.

[Greeting]

*62.5% chance EBWOP