Mini Normal 2258 | Bunnies [Postgame]

[House]

Not my first choice, but I'd hammer it.

Oh yeah, this reminds me. House hammers everything, so don't put anyone at E-1.

Spoilsport.

[Something_Smart]

Sorry that I spoiled you spoiling the game.

[Laplacian]

ffff that's a lot of posts. I'll fully respond once I'm off work, but 1. frogster's 592 case is garbage and 2. what exactly is "lunchbait"? I have ideas from context, but want to make sure.

[Aristeia]

it means you are an easy elimination because you are naturally scummy when town.

Frog is asking what the odds are that you are a townie being run up for being scummy rather than a mafia being run up.

[House]

Sorry that I spoiled you

spoiling

improving

the game.

Fix't.

[Laplacian]

it means you are an easy elimination because you are naturally scummy when town.

Frog is asking what the odds are that you are a townie being run up for being scummy rather than a mafia being run up.

What I thought, thanks.

[House]

it means you are an easy elimination because you are naturally scummy when town.

Frog is asking what the odds are that you are a townie being run up for being scummy rather than a mafia being run up.

What I thought, thanks.

Would you be so kind as to self-vote?

[Datisi]

class break ending, gotta run, i can go into this further later today if you'd like

I haven't really read the last 10 pages yet (and probably won't for a few hours since I need to do some work atm), but if you didn't really directly address iv's posts, I would be interested in hearing you give them a close look and some level of conclusion on where your stance on his slot is given he was your wagon focus for a bit there.

i "directly" addressed the fact that his readslist felt very odd

ok, i reread the most recent parts of his iso, and it all just feels... muddy. like he's Here and Posting and whatever but none of it feels like there are actual cogs turning behind the scenes. which doesn't 100% make him scum, but it's nothing to townread him for. like, his reads are... nothing? which, sure he hasn't read the game etc, but why is he town here?

like, if you really wanted, i *could* go post by post but i feel like my commentary would be "this adds nothing to the discussion" for the most part - and i just don't think the annoyance is townie, like i've said. the genuineness of it means nothing to me because iv is one of those people that knows how to fake emotional genuineness as scum.

i can't really give you a firm conclusion, though. "he feels scummy rn and i'm not buying the reasons he's supposed to be town but i'm aware it's too early for me to read him yet" is all i got. also, just because i swapped my vote from his wagon does *not* mean my read of iv improved in any way. i'm not one of those "must hold vote at strongest scumread at all times" people.

[Datisi]

Iv is at least being active and giving thoughts.

uhh...

Why do you think these responses are towny? The Datisi one I can maybe maybe see, but definitely not the VP Baltar one.

Both responses are towny because they both seem obviously wrong, and it's more likely that scum would have given a serious thought to it and thus would accurately report how they would treat it.

what is wrong about my response? do you think a personality test report would help someone read my in-game alignment?

[Something_Smart]

I don't think you would fill it out immediately as scum.

[Frogsterking]

ffff that's a lot of posts. I'll fully respond once I'm off work, but 1. frogster's 592 case is garbage and 2. what exactly is "lunchbait"? I have ideas from context, but want to make sure.

FYI no one cares about your stupid ego and your response to my case, do something besides shit post and vote your town read.

This is Lap from another thread:

I really like Tejate's argument here (+town) and their response in 854 is correct-- The way that Laplacian is approaching MegAzumarill and their role claim is not the point at all. It's specifically the way that Lap is using the role claim as an opportunity to shade Tejate's slot without consideration for the possibility that they're a real PR. I do think Lap's response is baaad looking here and there's a

chance

it's a scum slip, but I need to see more Lap posts while I mull over my read. Either way, he should respond and then drop this case & place a real vote for end of day.

I started writing up a post using statistics and bayes's theorem to show why the binatog/Tejate slot became more suspicious with the cop claim's existence and realized two things:

1. I skipped a step in my inference - P(A or B) > 0 does not imply P(A) > 0 which wrecked my core argument. Intuitively I felt that reducing odds of a player having a town role increased odds that they are scum, but that's not strictly true.
2. Mathematically, I should actually be more suspicious of

everyone

, not just Tejate*.

So yeah, I was overly hasty and still kind of tunneled. I still don't believe Tejate has a town role because binatog's softclaim doesn't mesh well with that and the repeated phrasing from FF earlier pinged some alarm bells in my mind, but writing out a bunch of equations made me less suspicious of them. I've moved them down to scumlean, maybe vt on my list.

*suppose the odds the cop claim is real is c. Then with probability c there are 0.5** town roles and 2 scum left, or with probability 1-c there are 1.5 town roles and 1 scum left. This means there are (1+c)/8 other scum. If c > 7/9, then (1+c)/8 > 22.2%, the baseline odds of a random player being scum***. With no counter claim I feel c is pretty high, and thus should ratchet up the paranoia!

**given we have a cop, there are 0.5 average town roles remaining. Again, I could add math for "what if we don't have a cop", but then I have to add more priors and branch the probability tree even more

***before anyone tries to go "you didn't include yourself as town in the math therefore you're scummmmm" I wanted to keep this generic. Hence 2/9 as the odds a random person is scum instead of having to throw a bunch of priors in there. The same conclusions hold no matter whether you include yourself or not, plus it's easier to see how to generalize this math to any size game

[Datisi]

i'm reading the vp v rtp spat on pg 31 and i am too tired for this - 768 feels weird because vp has never said either of those reads as far as i remember

which is actually kinda unfortunate because i would like him to have a stance on either of those players but

like, on one hand i feel for baltar because those are things he definitely didn't do and i know how annoying it is to have to defend against bullshit you did not do

on the other i individually do not like baltar's laplacian read enough that i am thonking on it for a bit

easiest solution would be to flip laplacian and the go after either rtp or vp depending on the flip, yes i am very smart

in all seriousness, i feel like i wanna have an honest convo with rtp about their thoughts on vp because i can kinda ~feel~ the idea behind it, but a lot of it feels like making a conclusion then fitting the thread events around that conclusion and that's not something i can vibe with

[Datisi]

the post above made me skim laplacian's iso from newbie 2085 and my conclusion is that i do not feel like unvoting right now

@baltar, if you wanna do meta reads, can you do one here, might be spicy

[Frogsterking]

Iv is at least being active and giving thoughts.

uhh...

Why do you think these responses are towny? The Datisi one I can maybe maybe see, but definitely not the VP Baltar one.

Both responses are towny because they both seem obviously wrong, and it's more likely that scum would have given a serious thought to it and thus would accurately report how they would treat it.

what is wrong about my response?

do you think a personality test report would help someone read my in-game alignment?

If it's better not to share information about each other because it could help the mafia manipulate us, why are we talking in the thread at all? It makes no sense, and the idea that you understand the five factor model has some utility, and this makes you paranoid about the scum using test results to better manipulate us in practice even though you can acknowledge how the idea of knowing our temperaments seems good on paper is like a townie dumb tell.

[VP Baltar]

the post above made me skim laplacian's iso from newbie 2085 and my conclusion is that i do not feel like unvoting right now

@baltar, if you wanna do meta reads, can you do one here, might be spicy

Yeah, looking at SS and Lap metas is something on my vague to do list.

[Something_Smart]

good luck with my meta lol

[VP Baltar]

Nah im not wasting discussion space for this conversation

If youre trying to say im scum you should be voting me (:

I am just trying to understand your thought process in switching from iv to Lap when there was a viable iv wagon.

Then you said it was obvious you felt better about iv ... which idk how anyone is supposed to know that, but ok.


Then I realized you just said you felt better about iv at the same time he was in your vp/iv/Lap solve. Which, uh...

Datisi, did you read this and does it strike you as weird?

[skitter30]

I kinda like the comp of the laplacian wagon, but thh i'm not sure he's scum ...

And wrt rtp, his reasoning feels very opaque to me, and i dont really understand his reads

[VP Baltar]

good luck with my meta lol

Well, I do at least have that wild ass large where you were scum to look at

[Datisi]

frogster, i was asking s_s why he thought that my 392 is wrong but uh thanks i guess

anyway,
still don't really see why iv is townie, so @skitt/baltar/whoever the fuck, lemme know k thanks

i need to speak to rtp because like uhh just as i was able to put away my baltar paranoia for now they did the thing

i'm gonna go pass out at the very late time of 9:21pm because i didn't sleep shit the past two days, see y'all tomorrow

[skitter30]

I'm kinda getting vague and inarticuable townpings on ss but idk how ro explain them

[Something_Smart]

And wrt rtp, his reasoning feels very opaque to me, and i dont really understand his reads

I feel this way about everyone, so it doesn't bother me anymore. (Also, *they)

[Something_Smart]

(Assuming you were talking about RTP there, it wasn't totally clear)

[skitter30]

anyway,
still don't really see why iv is townie, so @skitt/baltar/whoever the fuck, lemme know k thanks

While i can *see* a universe where he's scum and choosing to be low-effort to evade scumreads, his explanation tbh feels more to me like he genuinely wants to scale back.

His content last night was decent

This isnt a strong read (we know i just misread him >.>) but that's what i'm thinking rn

[Datisi]

Nah im not wasting discussion space for this conversation

If youre trying to say im scum you should be voting me (:

I am just trying to understand your thought process in switching from iv to Lap when there was a viable iv wagon.

Then you said it was obvious you felt better about iv ... which idk how anyone is supposed to know that, but ok.


Then I realized you just said you felt better about iv at the same time he was in your vp/iv/Lap solve. Which, uh...

Datisi, did you read this and does it strike you as weird?

i read it and i said the whole you/rtp exchange gives me a headache because it feels weird in multiple ways, but i cannot put my finger on WHY

it is definitely weird, but i know rtp is somewhat easy sometimes to be made out of to look weird because their thought processes aren't 100% connected at times and they don't always elaborate when asked

so in order to determine wtf is happening, i should try to figure out whether there's any merit in what they're saying, which means i need to figure out whether you're actually doing what they're accusing you of... which is a problem for another time because reading words is too much effort right now.