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[Aristeia]

Correct. That’s why I am voting Ari. Still catching up but the move off of Lap to IV is sus. It matches the initial hop I would expect then back on when the wagon was a foregone conclusion. I haven’t read her plop back on but that’s what the vote count says

the hop where I follow Datisi is suspicious to you.

Amazing

Correct. It looks like you care more about pocketing Datisi than getting scum with the IV vote.

You don't even know what IV's alignment is

[Aristeia]

It's actually amazing you learned nothing from losing that open game in the spectacular manner that you did

[OutWorldER]

@1615 Your Datisi push at the beginning of the day was really tinfoily and reachy. The "chain elim" argument is something I've seen from town before when they're paranoid about a slot and it's usually a bad argument since it's much more likely that the slot in question is just looking through potential associatives.

So let me ask if you agree with datisi it is unlikely the other two scum were on a Lap bus. You think both scum were off wagon?

Yeah, I'd agree that the other scum were likely off wagon.

[Aristeia]

Like when you death-tunneled Dwlee into Dwlee revealing themselves as IC you'd think you'd sit down and re-evaluate your game state read but no you continued to not listen to anyone else and believe in your own solution above all else

[MathBlade]

Correct. That’s why I am voting Ari. Still catching up but the move off of Lap to IV is sus. It matches the initial hop I would expect then back on when the wagon was a foregone conclusion. I haven’t read her plop back on but that’s what the vote count says

the hop where I follow Datisi is suspicious to you.

Amazing

Correct. It looks like you care more about pocketing Datisi than getting scum with the IV vote.

You don't even know what IV's alignment is

I don’t know IV’s alignment for certain no.

However, House is more than likely town. And House defended IV and IV is acting similar to another game where IV was town. So it’s more a probable guess.

[Aristeia]

You actually are arrogant enough to believe you know better than someone who has actually played the entire game and is thinking and so you decide to vote your own solution rather than let Dwlee make a decision. It's really infuriating to me the way you play town.

[Aristeia]

You are incredibly confbiased.

[Frogsterking]

So I guess the list of potential bussers who aren't BWing skitter right now might be a good place to look.

VCs:

Spoiler:

Laplacian (7):

Reformed Toxic Player,

Andresvmb,

Datisi, Aristeia,

House

,

Frogsterking,

Almost50

With 13 alive, it took 7 to eliminate.

skitter30 (3):

Datisi, Aristeia, OutWorldER

With 11 alive, it's 6 to eliminate.

Deadline for Day 2 is February 7 at 8:00 PM EST.

Deadline Timer:

(expired on 2022-02-07 21:00:00)

Andresvmb, House, Frogsterking, Almost50

are the potential bussers who aren't bwing skitter.

So fmpov if I choose to believe everything I heard today and last night, including reading House as town based on dayplay, skitter and andres are the most likely scum team.

So the bias here is that skitter and andres have also spoken the least, so being that the general voices of the crowd are pushing me in a direction toward them, maybe that's not too surprising.

so if I assume that skitter and andres are NOT the correct solve, maybe I can work backwards and isolate the voices until I have a coherent whole with a minimum amount of assumptions.

So how exactly did you go from Ari not bussing to Ari bussing?

And what does BW stand for?

BW = band wagon

It was a very nonlinear approach compared to the one you took. I realized the logic of a skitter+andres team and figured it was unlikely, and then I started thinking about who was most likely to have given incorrect information and I went for a walk, and while I was walking I remembered a bunch of things Ari said D2 and how she followed Datisi onto the skitter wagon and stuff like that. When I got back I was already planning to vote Ari but then I saw the details of the case you'd laid out and that you had a lot more concrete information.

[MathBlade]

Like when you death-tunneled Dwlee into Dwlee revealing themselves as IC you'd think you'd sit down and re-evaluate your game state read but no you continued to not listen to anyone else and believe in your own solution above all else

I didn’t cause them to reveal Koba did. My solution had a greater than 90% chance of being correct. Yes, it wasn’t that game. But I always take what’s more likely over less likely. If someone explains you’re town that I townread I back off.

But you seem to fit the scum slot by VCA and by the play I have seen so I have no reason to Unvote based on some AtE.

[VP Baltar]

Yeah, I'd agree that the other scum were likely off wagon.

Can you walk me through your reason for believing this?

[Aristeia]

Mafia is not a dice game.

[VP Baltar]

Ari, what are your thoughts on the on and off wagon split?

[Aristeia]

You didn't have a 90% chance of being right

You don't even understand how you messed up.

You still think you are right despite hard evidence you are wrong.

[MathBlade]

You are incredibly confbiased.

Maybe so. But I am not demanding the conversation go my way.
All I am doing is stating my opinion.
I was actually poking Frog to see if they were scum buddying me before you decided to argue I suck vs who is scum or something productive.

I am one person with one vote. If I am unreasonable the wagon doesn’t gain traction. Gonna take a shower and back in a bit.

If you want a townread do something to earn it.

[MathBlade]

You didn't have a 90% chance of being right

You don't even understand how you messed up.

You still think you are right despite hard evidence you are wrong.

I don’t think you want to challenge me on math. I was wrong that game but the play was correct even though it ended in a loss.

Think of it like a game of poker. If you’re the second best hand the proper play is usually all in because someone having the best hand is very rare. That’s what happened so *shrug*

[MathBlade]

Mafia is not a dice game.

It is though. I have to make a guess based on incomplete info.
So I make a guess based on what is most likely.

[Aristeia]

Ari, what are your thoughts on the on and off wagon split?

I think probably 2 off-wagon.

[Aristeia]

Mafia is not a dice game.

It is though. I have to make a guess based on incomplete info.
So I make a guess based on what is most likely.

You really have learned nothing from the loss and that is a shame.

[MathBlade]

Vote Count 1.08

Laplacian (7):

Reformed Toxic Player, Andresvmb, Datisi, Aristeia, House, Frogsterking, Almost50

Almost50 (2):

VP Baltar, skitter30

innocentvillager (1):

OutWorldER

Frogsterking (1):

Laplacian

Datisi (1):

innocentvillager

Not Voting (1):

Something_Smart

With 13 alive, it took 7 to eliminate.

So you think two scum in VP,skitter,outer,IV, and SS yeah Ari?

[Aristeia]

You didn't have a 90% chance of being right

You don't even understand how you messed up.

You still think you are right despite hard evidence you are wrong.

I don’t think you want to challenge me on math. I was wrong that game but the play was correct even though it ended in a loss.

Think of it like a game of poker. If you’re the second best hand the proper play is usually all in because someone having the best hand is very rare. That’s what happened so *shrug*

I have never voted incorrectly in elo so you probably don't want to challenge me on how to play town.

[Frogsterking]

Math and Ari I think you guys are clashing maybe give this line of convo/each other a break for a little while and see how you feel.

[MathBlade]

Mafia is not a dice game.

It is though. I have to make a guess based on incomplete info.
So I make a guess based on what is most likely.

You really have learned nothing from the loss and that is a shame.

You have also failed to remember AtE is meaningless here.

If you want it to mean something you’d have to tell me what I was supposed to gleam from repping into an almost unwinnable game.

I’ve spent my whole life with belittling comments that aren’t constructive and that’s exactly what this is and those type of comments will cause me to stick with my vote on you.

So then miss high and mighty put up or shut up. What was I supposed to learn?

[VP Baltar]

Ari, what are your thoughts on the on and off wagon split?

I think probably 2 off-wagon.

What makes you feel this way?

[MathBlade]

You didn't have a 90% chance of being right

You don't even understand how you messed up.

You still think you are right despite hard evidence you are wrong.

I don’t think you want to challenge me on math. I was wrong that game but the play was correct even though it ended in a loss.

Think of it like a game of poker. If you’re the second best hand the proper play is usually all in because someone having the best hand is very rare. That’s what happened so *shrug*

I have never voted incorrectly in elo so you probably don't want to challenge me on how to play town.

I rarely have either but I also understand I am human. I also maybe have played a few more games than you. Even if I grant your premise it is a logical fallacy. Your perfection or lack thereof in elo is not this game.

[Frogsterking]

Ari AtE does look legit here I'm going to say now.