open 841: concgratulations to the winners and losers

[Alyssa The Lamb]

If that's still one of your main arguments when it's one of those types of information that's most prone to change with flips, especially when you're suddenly sure, it doesn't look genuine at all

[Alyssa The Lamb]

And idk how Enchant + Mare even affects it

[Alyssa The Lamb]

Actually not even enchant since he was consensus scum yesterday

[Something_Smart]

Because eod wagons with that much scramble are rarely all on town imo, and the more people involved makes it less likely

This feels like a misapplication of probability. If we assume that all wagons were completely random, then it would be 33% for all four wagons to be town (from a neutral POV), and 73% for the fourth wagon to be town knowing that the first three were. Is there a particular reason outside of this to believe that they weren't all town?

[Something_Smart]

2960 - this post speaks to me, and it says skitter and alyssa are not s/s (yes, i know nobody is thinking that they are, shut up)

I'm considering that team. I also don't think that post really refutes it; skitter does love her distancing.

[Alyssa The Lamb]

I'm pretty certain Kaiji never survives this long if skitter and I are both scum

The game gets a lot simpler for us when he's not in the game and both of us together could probably brute force a win from this spot

Instead we kill... Mare. Ok

[Something_Smart]

I mean, if skitter is ascetic cop, Mare can guilty her.

[skitter30]

This day one flow trap argument feels really reachy

In that ...

[skitter30]

If that's still one of your main arguments when it's one of those types of information that's most prone to change with flips, especially when you're suddenly sure, it doesn't look genuine at all

Sorry shoupd have gone to next page >.>

From my pov its looking more and more suspicious with more flips, not less suspicious. I dont know how else to explain eod1 if you're town. What's your explanation?

[skitter30]

Because eod wagons with that much scramble are rarely all on town imo, and the more people involved makes it less likely

This feels like a misapplication of probability. If we assume that all wagons were completely random, then it would be 33% for all four wagons to be town (from a neutral POV), and 73% for the fourth wagon to be town knowing that the first three were. Is there a particular reason outside of this to believe that they weren't all town?

I utterly suck at probability >.>
From just a 'i've played a lot of mafia and seen a lot of eod scrambles' perspective, i find it unlikely that everyone involved is town.

How often do you see that happen?

[skitter30]

Fwiw i did claim the hood, not sure scum-ac-me knows i was the target ... (i.e. and risk that mare didnt target like ss or something)

Alyssa are u gonna address my 'you're using kaiji to misflip me today' theory?

[skitter30]

Ss why am i scum?

[Datisi]

i reskimmed the ending of d1 and i have talked myself into a catboi/alyssa team, someone yell at me if there are any obvious reasons why that team doesn't make sense

yell at me regardless, probably

[Kaiji]

VOTE: skitter

[Kaiji]

This latest "alyssa scum" angle is just frankly, embarassing. Alyssa just goes with consensus of pushing me and it could be gg+ it silences me.

[Datisi]

no offense but nobody is pushing you right now

[skitter30]

This latest "alyssa scum" angle is just frankly, embarassing. Alyssa just goes with consensus of pushing me and it could be gg+ it silences me.

Why tho. Ur townreading her and pushing me, its easier to the way she is at this point

[skitter30]

* to go the way she is as scum

I would appreciare it if you can at least consider that universe, because voting for me is gonna be a loss and i'm p sure she's scum

[skitter30]

But either way after this 300 page behemoth i dont have much else to say if you're set on this

[Alyssa The Lamb]

I'm pretty sure Kaiji means yesterday

[skitter30]

Alyssa are u gonna address my 'you're using kaiji to misflip me today' theory?

[skitter30]

And wrt yesterday - i mean sure, but its a lot easier to fit scum-me into your pov than scum-kaiji all of a sudden.

[Alyssa The Lamb]

I mean

What exactly is there to prove or disprove that theory

Because the town version of that is I just think you're scum and don't feel like putting effort in

That's not exactly out of my townrange in a game like this

[Alyssa The Lamb]

And wrt yesterday - i mean sure, but its a lot easier to fit scum-me into your pov than scum-kaiji all of a sudden.

Reassessing is a thing

[skitter30]

Fair enuf

Any more thoughrs on a solve feom your pov ?