open 841: concgratulations to the winners and losers

[Kaiji]

"why did mena guilty him" well clearly as a distancing tactic considering catboi's placement in the gamestate at the time means the bus against mena was preplanned.

[Kaiji]

there's your viability for that scenario - i do not think it is implausible nor even a particularly risky/hard play to make there in that position.

[Kaiji]

(If anyone would like to know what I read on flow feel free to peruse Purgatory and draw your own conclusions)

can we get a rehash of what those conclusions were - i was in this game myself

I think I have solved at least 1 piece of the puzzle.


I'm going back to this: VOTE: Catboi

when looking back to d1 - catboi is fairly wishy washy and is not solving at all *even on d1* and you know who calls this out? Faker does. Faker gets on his ass near EoD1 and pushes catboi to do *something* and threatens to push catboi if they sit on their ass.

you know who died n1?

Faker.

The death isn't conclusive evidence - but its a flipped town voice that was against catboi early on.

that alongside the general vibes of the guilty being .. very stilted and awkward in terms of how quiet both sides were solidify this for me.

catboi coming into today not knowing what to do and reverting to their basic scumread of me is also cause for concern to me.

So for cat

Cat if you don't carry me and vote scum I am willing to yeet you our the window

why would you

ever

expect me to do that?

I get that this is likely hyperbolic and just trying to kick my butt into action but I read it at the exact wrong time

read the next few pages and had very little I want to talk about. Maybe I'll try again tomorrow. I'm not really in the mood for any more tonight.

I've spent a lot of time chewing on this post and how to respond, with 2011 as the stopgap. I'd like to offer you a verbal hand to stand up again and play some mafia. I think being roundabout is going to backfire, and I don't want any questions of good/bad faith or exploitation.

I'm going to vote you if I think you're the best vote available. I hope you won't be.

for reference for the post that sent me over on this route.

I also find the back and forth with pooky that occured on d1 to be extremely performative and since pooky flipped scum - a good indicator it is svs interaction.

requoting new page ya yeet.

[skitter30]

But if mena is going down anyways why doesnt he guilty a town?

And if catboi is top scum in the draft, what does he go for?
(Although it did just occur to me from a draft perspective alyssa/catboi make sense)

[Kaiji]

Andante: town
skitter30: null
midwaybear: probably town
Mare: lean town
innocentvillager: town
SirCakez: lean scum
Faker: sheepishly admitting he's town
catboi - nya
Menalque: scumlean from pooky, willing to give him time to get into the game
Datisi: lean town
northsidegal: probably town, under the impression she's fairly polarized and think posting is all right so far
Sleepless Assassin: null
flow trap: scum
Something_Smart: null

In draft order because that's more fun

I guess if the wagons are unsatisfying I'd entertain a vote on something_smart, or if I were feeling particularly spicy, skitter

hol up! rewind time!

catboi - please explain how you reached each and every one of these reads.

yes you may reference the textbook(the thread) for your answers - but you must explain your answers in your own words!

[Kaiji]

But if mena is going down anyways why doesnt he guilty a town?

And if catboi is top scum in the draft, what does he go for?
(Although it did just occur to me from a draft perspective alyssa/catboi make sense)

"why doesn't he guilty a town"


it is equally likely in that gamestate scenario to simply guilty a scumbuddy who is in decent enough standings with the townies in the playerlist.


i did not factor the guilty into my reasoning and i refuse to incorporate mechanics in my reads when they are just probabilities. if you wish to play probabilities, you can ask mathblade who handed me a scum win in white flag for free because "unlikely no scum on jester wagon".

[Kaiji]

that is to say I do not think mathblade is a bad player I just think their application of mechanical/wagon probability can lead to conclusions that let scum win for free and I am diametrically opposed to reading the game like that which is how you are presenting the argument to me.

[Kaiji]

oh yeah those edibles are strong

[Kaiji]

to answer how i do apply mechs - > is I use them as a catalyst to determine the most efficient way to sort dayplay in the least amount of time by utilizing that probability to narrow down what I'm looking for rather than let it override my reads.

there are only 2 truths known to me:

scum spew

and dead townie flip

those are the ultimate truths in mafia and they always are able to speak the truth about a gamestate

[Kaiji]

i also have trouble believing catboi ever goes for neighborizer when they hate using hoods

[Kaiji]

the viable scumteam world of Skitter/Catboi/Pooky:

Skitter: Tried for Jailkeeper, believing andante took vig, failed

Catboi: tried for bulletproof, succeeded

Pooky: tried for night 1 vig: succeeded


in the SS/Catboi/Pooky scum world

Catboi: Tries for bulletproof, or any other useful role(potentially n3 vig that went unused) - succeeds

Pooky- Tries for 1 shot vig - succeeds

SS - Opposite of whatever catboi goes for - fails? -> reminder that andante said that SS went no where so.


Honestly I wish galron confirmed that so we know that andante didnt get "No result" but unlikely that scum take ascetic cop over a bp

[Kaiji]

mech viability established.

now no one is allowed to ask me "but how does this match up with mechs?"

well thats the cool part. it still does.

[skitter30]

In the universe where catboi is scum i think he's the ac/bp bracket

[Kaiji]

who knew weed would be an effective way to increase one's own WIM

[Something_Smart]

if you wish to play probabilities, you can ask mathblade who handed me a scum win in white flag for free because "unlikely no scum on jester wagon".

Please do not conflate mechanical reasoning with VCA. That's like confusing astronomy with astrology.

Everything is probability. You act on your reads because you feel they have a high probability of being right. Mechanical-minded players act on mechanical arguments for the same reason.

[Kaiji]

mechanical reasons have blindspots where players with a penchant for risk taking(not really risks in the sense of gametstate - but moreso in the sense of if a piece was moved too soon, or a piece revealed in the wrong order, it all falls apart) will be able to slip through.


i still know my theories can be backed up by mechanical viability. i am just not into explaining things via mechs when I do not myself take into account mechs that do not strictly disprove me.

[Kaiji]

I myself exploited such players who had some level of trust in mechanics when I claimed something a dead player had done overnight - it would have taken 2 steps of logic to unravel that it was possible I *had* done so and I used it as a shield. When I'm town, I just ignore such claims and go straight for the dayplay.

[catboi]

well this is about more in line with what I was expecting

[catboi]

(If anyone would like to know what I read on flow feel free to peruse Purgatory and draw your own conclusions)

can we get a rehash of what those conclusions were - i was in this game myself

I'm pretty sure I already went over this but in short - flow as both alignments starts off heavy on the spam and filler but as town eventually they shift into something more serious and actually start solcing where as scum they just kind of don't, they'll give token reads without much behind them but mostly just keep shitposting

[schadd_]

you're hard on everything

vote count 5.3 !

catboi (1):

Kaiji

not voting (5):

Something_Smart, Datisi, skitter30, catboi, Alyssa The Lamb

6 are alive, and it takes 4 votes to reevaluate someone's considerations. day 5 ends in (expired on 2022-02-19 05:30:00)

other ideas

• did you know that skitter30 is vla on fridays and saturdays? and in this case sunday and maybe monday? and tuesday wednesday thursday friday? i just keep him satisfied through the weekend?
  
• did you know that datisi isn't vla on tuesdays and thursdays?

[catboi]

was typing up a reply but got distracted by other stuff

[catboi]

not gonna have time to get to this tonight will answer tomorrow

[skitter30]

(If anyone would like to know what I read on flow feel free to peruse Purgatory and draw your own conclusions)

can we get a rehash of what those conclusions were - i was in this game myself

I'm pretty sure I already went over this but in short - flow as both alignments starts off heavy on the spam and filler but as town eventually they shift into something more serious and actually start solcing where as scum they just kind of don't, they'll give token reads without much behind them but mostly just keep shitposting

Oh hey! The latter is what they were doing in this game!

[skitter30]

Alyssa why are you wanting to flip ss today?

[catboi]

(If anyone would like to know what I read on flow feel free to peruse Purgatory and draw your own conclusions)

can we get a rehash of what those conclusions were - i was in this game myself

I'm pretty sure I already went over this but in short - flow as both alignments starts off heavy on the spam and filler but as town eventually they shift into something more serious and actually start solcing where as scum they just kind of don't, they'll give token reads without much behind them but mostly just keep shitposting

Oh hey! The latter is what they were doing in this game!

yeahhh but the thing is they were onlyin the game for a few days realtime and then vanished so I'm not really sure it's all that meaningful