Newbie 2089 | Endgame

[NorwegianboyEE]

Pagetop!

[TistDaniel]

Thank you for your answers, NorwegianboyEE. I'm glad I asked about this stuff. You've given me some perspective that wouldn't have occurred to me. I've been thinking that of course you have to claim once you know scum, but I think you're right, ideally it's better not to claim, just make a case against them, and save your claim for if nobody is listening.

And of course a lot of the stuff we're talking about probably doesn't translate to non-newbie games, where the setup can be very different.

[NorwegianboyEE]

ideally it's better not to claim, just make a case against them, and save your claim for if nobody is listening.

To add on to that.
If you claim early it will give an very easy out for the mafia partner to vote their own partner without looking suspicious, as it is "mechanically confirmed" anyways.
But if you post an case then you might see an scum partner attempting to defend their partner because they don't know if you have an guilty, and get much more valuable reactions that simply claiming immediately. Which can mean the difference between winning a game immediately or simply chopping off one mafia off the list but allowing the other one to win.

[KittyTacky]

Reaction tests are very important in general, but it depends on player meta (common behavior) in many cases. Some get flustered and super defensive when pushed, some go quiet, some start passively agreeing with stuff. Not only is it important

how

they react in the vacuum of the game but also how they react as different alignments. That is a common tell. But it is possible to fake.

[KittyTacky]

3. If someone claims a role you know they don't actually have, don't counterclaim until late the following day. This gives them time to use their power and confess their lie on their own without you having to out yourself. But as we get close to elimination the day after they fake claimed, you should then claim, because they're probably scum. Worst case scenario, you die before you get a chance to counterclaim, but your death reveals your role, and once town knows your role, they know the claim was fake.

If there are no leads and/or the person getting pushed looks to be a scum-led push I think it's better to counterclaim immediately. Better to get a confirmed scum lim instead of someone who could well be town IMO.

[ofmercia]

@tits what made you choose progo as a case study?

[TistDaniel]

It wasn't a deliberate choice to read Progo. I did initially look for a game with multiple people I'd be playing with, but couldn't find one. If I recall correctly, I eventually settled on the most recent completed newbie game at the time I started reading.

[Micc]

AutoDefenestrator replaces MrRafexPL.
fwogcarf replaces YoloHammer.
These players have (expired on 2022-02-19 01:00:00) to confirm.

Votecount 1.01

fwogcarf (1) -

Frogsterking

AutoDefenestrator (1) -

KittyTacky

KittyTacky (1) -

NorwegianboyEE

Not Voting (6) -

AutoDefenestrator, fwogcarf, ofmercia, TistDaniel, ProgoWoshua, Dunnstral

With 9 players alive it takes 5 votes to eliminate.

The deadline for Day 1 is paused at 10 days until all players have confirmed.

[TistDaniel]

ofmerica, do you have any thoughts on strategy? Either power roles, or just general scumhunting? I haven't heard much from you.

[NorwegianboyEE]

Aren’t you lucky it wasn’t Progo that replaced out.

[ofmercia]

ofmerica, do you have any thoughts on strategy? Either power roles, or just general scumhunting? I haven't heard much from you.

Claiming your town power role when you're about to be voted out is good. Fake claiming is bad under all circumstances, it'll will most likely get 2 town power roles out and guaranteed to confuse the rest of town who has no other info and no private way of discussing things. Mafia will always know which column we are in, so I disagree when you say they will get confused about being in column A or C in your example where it's viable for town to fake claim.

[TistDaniel]

NorwegianboyEE:

Not especially. I've read 17 of Progo's posts, and it was all RVS stuff. I don't know which way he flipped, so I don't have any handle on his tells or anything.

I feel like all I really know about him is that 2087 was his first online game (though he played in person before that) and that he's never played League of Legends. (It came up as a discussion point in 2087.)

So ... I know almost as much about you as about him.

ofmerica:

My point is not that Mafia will be confused about whether we're in A or C.

Cop knows we're in A or C because those are A1 and C1 are the only setups that cop can appear. Mafia knows for sure whether we're in A or C, but they don't know whether it's 1, 2, or 3. A3 and C3 are both masons. Cop can claim mason, and Mafia doesn't know otherwise. If they're in A, it's A1, but Mafia thinks it's A3. If they're in C, it's C1, but Mafia thinks it's C3. Either way, it's a plausible lie to everyone except the doctor, if there is one, who knows for sure he's not in A3 or C3.

[ofmercia]

NorwegianboyEE:

Not especially. I've read 17 of Progo's posts, and it was all RVS stuff. I don't know which way he flipped, so I don't have any handle on his tells or anything.

I feel like all I really know about him is that 2087 was his first online game (though he played in person before that) and that he's never played League of Legends. (It came up as a discussion point in 2087.)

So ... I know almost as much about you as about him.

ofmerica:

My point is not that Mafia will be confused about whether we're in A or C.

Cop knows we're in A or C because those are A1 and C1 are the only setups that cop can appear. Mafia knows for sure whether we're in A or C, but they don't know whether it's 1, 2, or 3. A3 and C3 are both masons. Cop can claim mason, and Mafia doesn't know otherwise. If they're in A, it's A1, but Mafia thinks it's A3. If they're in C, it's C1, but Mafia thinks it's C3. Either way, it's a plausible lie to everyone except the doctor, if there is one, who knows for sure he's not in A3 or C3.

Thing about claiming mason is that there's no other power role which is worthy of killing more than mason anyway. So you're not buying yourself more time so even though you're the cop trying to hide, mafia have no reason to go night kill a better PR, and will most likely out the other power role who will and should counter claim you, since this legit town PR has no idea you are a different town PR fake claiming.

If they somehow can read your mind and know you're fake claiming as TOWN, it's still bad because now you open up a whole new way for scum to get away with fake claiming random power roles when about to be lynched. So for this setup, imo, NEVER fake claim as town. And always counter claim someone who has a direct contradiction to your power role.

[fwogcarf]

been about a solid year and a half since i last played a game here

what's going on fellas

[fwogcarf]

My first first post!

Hello everyone. I now realize I should have inned as a SE because I have a few games under my belt already...

Cool we have an armada of SEs this game.

VOTE: yolohammer doesnt sound like a newbie name.

I have a supplemental D1 start method called the SSS (standard survey start). I think it might be better after the RVS is over rather than right at the start of the game. I'll probably post it around 10-12 pages in.

fake frog never rescinding

VOTE: Frogsterking

[TistDaniel]

ofmerica:

There's no other power role as worthy of killing as mason? I thought mason would be rather weak, since you have one confirmed town you can talk to, which feels like a pretty weak power to me, and once one of you gets killed, the other has no power at all. Perhaps I don't understand how to play mason?

As for my fakeclaim thoughts, I know what I'm saying is against current site meta. I'm just not sure that current site meta is correct, at least with regards to NewD3 games.

You're right, my fakeclaim thoughts do make it easier for mafia to fakeclaim, but not really *that* much easier. If you read my original post on it, I am saying that if a person doesn't explain their fakeclaim within one full game day, they're scum and should be lynched. So it's a short-term strategy at best for scum.

Also, it's not all that easy for scum to fakeclaim. While town can fakeclaim certain roles and scum won't know (such as, in my example, cop claiming to be mason) the reverse isn't true.

Look at the NewD3 setup table. If Mafia knows we're in A, and fakeclaims any role at all there's a 100% chance that at least one person knows they're lying, and a 66% chance that two people know. If Mafia knows we're in C, and they fakeclaim any role, there's a 100% chance somebody knows. The only time it's at all feasible for Mafia to fakeclaim is if we're in B. And they're still not guaranteed to be safe. They're definitely unsafe the instant another power role flips or claims.

[TistDaniel]

Welcome to the game, fwogcarf. Any thoughts on the discussion so far?

[ofmercia]

ofmerica:

There's no other power role as worthy of killing as mason? I thought mason would be rather weak, since you have one confirmed town you can talk to, which feels like a pretty weak power to me, and once one of you gets killed, the other has no power at all. Perhaps I don't understand how to play mason?

As for my fakeclaim thoughts, I know what I'm saying is against current site meta. I'm just not sure that current site meta is correct, at least with regards to NewD3 games.

You're right, my fakeclaim thoughts do make it easier for mafia to fakeclaim, but not really *that* much easier. If you read my original post on it, I am saying that if a person doesn't explain their fakeclaim within one full game day, they're scum and should be lynched. So it's a short-term strategy at best for scum.

Also, it's not all that easy for scum to fakeclaim. While town can fakeclaim certain roles and scum won't know (such as, in my example, cop claiming to be mason) the reverse isn't true.

Look at the NewD3 setup table. If Mafia knows we're in A, and fakeclaims any role at all there's a 100% chance that at least one person knows they're lying, and a 66% chance that two people know. If Mafia knows we're in C, and they fakeclaim any role, there's a 100% chance somebody knows. The only time it's at all feasible for Mafia to fakeclaim is if we're in B. And they're still not guaranteed to be safe. They're definitely unsafe the instant another power role flips or claims.

If you bluff mafia into believing that you are mason instead of cop, there is no power role better for them to kill anyway (masons are a pair). So you're not delaying you getting night killed. Mafia would think there is a pair of masons. And they know one, might as well kill him, as there is no other threat of any other power role.

[TistDaniel]

Ah, that is a good point. If you claim to be mason, scum can eliminate all town power with a single kill.

Thanks for that insight.

[AutoDefenestrator]

I have awakened, hi. Just started thinking that I was a few hours too late for the last queue and would have to wait for a whole new game to fill in, whew. Big thanks to MrRafexPL for their kindness.

I've played many other social deception games (a lot) in the past and lately I've been getting real nostalgic over the few mafia games I've played on discord a few years ago, so I decided to try it out here. Anyway, I'll be sure to make a few accidental newbie slip-ups which shall confirm me as townie in the next day or two, so please hold.

i signed up to toy with newbies

VOTE: NorwegianBoyEE

For subtly threatening to bully newbies through his Machiavellian maneuvers of cognitive excellence.

[ProgoWoshua]

@TistDaniel, you know that you can still read previous games while in this one, right? There's no rule against it, and it's common practice.

[ProgoWoshua]

Uhh... Hi! I'm here too...

[TistDaniel]

ProgoWoshua: I know, I can reread older games. I'm a very slow and analytical reader though, especially when the content is as important as a mafia game. Little details matter, and I don't think I can give this game the attention it deserves while also reading another game. I might finish reading 2087, but I probably won't until this game is over.

I'm reviewing older posts in this game right now, which is why I haven't been talking as much. While I was waiting for the game to start, I made a lot of probability calculations about how to play, and obviously I missed out on a lot of things that are very obvious to people who are more in-tune to the social elements of the game. As far as probability goes, I maintain that cop claiming mason at E-1 is a good move. But I obviously completely missed what ofmerica pointed out about how scum would be thinking they could neutralize all town power with a single kill.

Discussion so far has given me a lot to think about, and I need to re-evaluate what I thought I knew.

[fwogcarf]

Welcome to the game, fwogcarf. Any thoughts on the discussion so far?

i find setup discussion nai

[TistDaniel]

But this is a newbie game, and it would benefit new town to know how to play.

Is it alignment indicative to not want to benefit new town?