Newbie 2089 | Endgame

[TistDaniel]

AutoDefenestrator: While I agree completely on the value of RVS analysis, town starts this game with almost no information. Discussion is the only way for the town to obtain information. When someone does not join in the discussion, that is an anti-town act.

Virtually your only contribution to discussion so far is the extremely safe "I agree with everyone else about Progo, now that the drama is over and everyone is agreed about Progo". Town at this point has no reason not to think that you're scum. And if you're town, it's bad for town to end up eliminating you just because you never gave us any information to work from.

As I've said before, I dislike RVS. But I'm still here talking to people, asking questions, throwing votes, trying to get a town-beneficial conversation started. Because information benefits town, and I want to win this.

[ofmercia]

I have tistdan and norweigian as town atm. Rest null. Nothing really scummy atm but I'm looking closely.

[Micc]

Votecount 1.03

Frogsterking (1) -

fwogcarf

NorwegianboyEE (1) -

AutoDefenestrator

ofmercia (1) -

TistDaniel

Not Voting (6) -

ofmercia, ProgoWoshua, Dunnstral, KittyTacky, NorwegianboyEE, Frogsterking

With 9 players alive it takes 5 votes to eliminate.

The deadline for Day 1 is in (expired on 2022-02-27 19:15:00).

[Micc]

.

[AutoDefenestrator]

And going ranty off-topic, I joined another community's mafia game on discord at the same time with this one, and I find it pretty weird that I'm being straight-up forced to memechat throughout the entire 48h D1 there. Someone who checked in a whole three times during that period actually got prodded for 'not talking enough', even though there was straight-up zero real conversation concerning setup/strategy going on there.

Forum Mafia, Discord Mafia, and social deduction games like Town Of Salem and Among Us have very different cultures between each. Forum mafia is super slow-paced, usually, for example. You're not in a rush here, at least early, so adapt to that.

I enjoy long games once they become complex and substantial, so dw. I was just explaining as to why I wasn't too talkative. Brings back memories of me having hour-long arguments or running homemade statistics scripts in C9++ games :p

[AutoDefenestrator]

AutoDefenestrator: While I agree completely on the value of RVS analysis, town starts this game with almost no information. Discussion is the only way for the town to obtain information. When someone does not join in the discussion, that is an anti-town act.

Virtually your only contribution to discussion so far is the extremely safe "I agree with everyone else about Progo, now that the drama is over and everyone is agreed about Progo". Town at this point has no reason not to think that you're scum. And if you're town, it's bad for town to end up eliminating you just because you never gave us any information to work from.

As I've said before, I dislike RVS. But I'm still here talking to people, asking questions, throwing votes, trying to get a town-beneficial conversation started. Because information benefits town, and I want to win this.

> While I agree completely on the value of RVS analysis [as in not giving much information]

> information benefits town

> when someone does not join in the discussion, that is an anti-town act

Doesn't follow. Our point of disagreement must still be on exactly how much value this D1 information has, which imo is microscopic. But at this point you already dragged me into the conversation, so I suppose you got what you wanted.

[TistDaniel]

I agree, D1 information has very little value ... *on D1*. After the elimination and the nightkill, town is going to look back at this discussion knowing the alignment of two players, and being able to assign much more significance to it.

What we're saying right now is going to be the foundation of D2 cases. And if we say nothing right now, town won't be able to make cases come D2.

[NorwegianboyEE]

I have solved some games on day 1. Sometimes it’s not that easy, but to say: "Meh day 1 pointless so nobody should care what we say" is blatantly anti-town.

[AutoDefenestrator]

I agree, D1 information has very little value ... *on D1*. After the elimination and the nightkill, town is going to look back at this discussion knowing the alignment of two players, and being able to assign much more significance to it.

What we're saying right now is going to be the foundation of D2 cases. And if we say nothing right now, town won't be able to make cases come D2.

Yes, I had that in mind when I said:

e.g. "Did he actually distance from X because that's what scum do, or does he know we look out for that and thus is setting someone up in a long con?"

Vote patterns etc do become valuable when people are attacking/defending others over matters which are actually consequential and not memes. On D1 you can basically pick anyone to shade or defend, you have no actual need to side with anyone out of necessity. A bit rambly, but essentially all D1 information is very easily manipulatable and should as a consequence still be assigned very insignificant weight.

But hey, just my view. Don't mind it being challenged by some with way more experience. NorwegianBoyEE 'solving some games D1' seems quite peculiar!

[TistDaniel]

So according to you, we should each issue a random vote, hammer the D1 elimination, and then begin discussion on D2 with which D1 votes didn't seem random? Because if discussion on D1 doesn't matter, that seems like the optimal strategy.

I agree, solving games D1 does seem quite peculiar. But if I recall correctly, that's what happened in Newbie 1856. (That's one of the games I read before I started looking for people I'd actually be playing with.) It's rare, but it does happen.

[NorwegianboyEE]

I remember playing a game called gun game on this site where i was scum, all the town instantly found each other and locktowned each other in like a couple hours and then voted scum.
I don't even know how you would survive that as scum.
Anyway this isn't very game revelant other than to say, if you're town plz contribute day 1. Don't excuse yourself that nothing useful happens anyway, if that is always the case then maybe the problem is with you.

[ofmercia]

@Dunnstral any town reads?

[Dunnstral]

Yeah, I like Tistdaniel for town

[fwogcarf]

How can you just assume it was a language error? That seems a bit tmi.

not everything is a scumslip lol

[Dunnstral]

I didn't assume it was a language error, I thought they were being playful. I didn't see it as a slip though.

[fwogcarf]

really recommend that you dont talk about ongoing games even if its off this forum

from the fm sites i play on its either frowned heavily upon or just straight up banned

[ofmercia]

How can you just assume it was a language error? That seems a bit tmi.

not everything is a scumslip lol

Lol still, there's a difference in making assumptions and guesses to flat out knowing not only it was an error but the exact nature and cause of the error.

[Dunnstral]

Who?

If you mean NorwegianboyEE's 135, I'm fairly certain that the game is completed. We can't talk about ongoing games on this site either.

[fwogcarf]

I have solved some games on day 1. Sometimes it’s not that easy, but to say: "Meh day 1 pointless so nobody should care what we say" is blatantly anti-town.

preach

[fwogcarf]

How can you just assume it was a language error? That seems a bit tmi.

not everything is a scumslip lol

Lol still, there's a difference in making assumptions and guesses to flat out knowing not only it was an error but the exact nature and cause of the error.

Yeah I can agree with that

[fwogcarf]

fun fact if you click "activity overview" below the page numbers on the bottom right side you can see how many posts people have made along with how long ago it was

[fwogcarf]

Who?

If you mean NorwegianboyEE's 135, I'm fairly certain that the game is completed. We can't talk about ongoing games on this site either.

who are you talking to?

[TistDaniel]

I believe Dunnstral is asking fwogcarf who is talking about an ongoing game. fwogcarf was talking about AutoDefenestrator (122).

[TistDaniel]

A lot of people have been saying that discussing town strategy is not alignment indicative, but I'm also the most town-read player (18, 59, 60, 72, 128, 137) when most of what I've done in this game is discuss town strategy. Not quite sure how to interpret that. Anyway, I decided to read back over responses to my discussion of town strategy.

Dunnstral came in (14) immediately after my first post (13), answering a lot of my questions. He didn't really go deep into advice for town strategy. He also didn't agree with my ideas about town power fakeclaiming. I asked (15) if cop should claim the instant they detect scum, or wait to find the second scum. (I personally was thinking that cop should claim immediately after detecting scum, since that's vitally important information for town to have, and there's a 50% chance there will be a doctor to protect cop.) Dunnstral never actually answered this question instead talking (17) about how cop shouldn't claim when they *haven't* found any scum yet. Could just have skimmed over my post and misunderstood.

NorwegianboyEE came in (16) to reply to Dunnstral's answers (14) to my questions (13). His advice is good. He townreads me after (18). I asked about an unlikely hypothetical situation with doctor (19). I think it's best to claim in that circumstance. NorwegianboyEE disagrees with me (20), but his perspective is a normal perspective for people to have. NAI. He responds (21) to another unlikely situation about cop that I asked about (19). His answer seems reasonable to me. Elaborates on views (22, 23), and points out (24) that cop doesn't need to claim after a guilty to make an elimination happen, so claim should be a last resort. He elaborates on this further (26). He didn't have to point this out, and I don't think anyone would have noticed if he hadn't, and it's good advice that hadn't occurred to me, and probably hadn't occurred to other newbie town. I think this *is* alignment-indicative, and it indicates town.

KittyTacky came in (28) to elaborate on what NorwegianboyEE said (26), then disagreed with my fakeclaim ideas (29). This is not an unusual perspective to take. NAI.

ofmerica pretty much just restated accepted site meta (35) when prompted (34). They seem to have misunderstood what I was saying about what mafia would know in my hypothetical, so I clarified (36). Then they went on to say that it's a bad idea to claim mason (37, 42). I'm not going to say this is alignment-indicative though, because I think mafia would want cop to claim cop rather than mason. I can read what ofmerica said as either town-beneficial or scum-beneficial.

fwogcarf said (48) that strategy discussion is NAI. I think it can be AI, as I explained in my read on NorwegianboyEE. Still, I can believe town having fwogcarf's perspective here. I prodded (49) saying that this was beneficial to town, and fwogcarf blew it off (52) saying that it wouldn't factor into his reads. He then said (53) that it benefits mafia more than town, but he wouldn't protest if the discussion continued without him (54). Seems a bit shady to me. If you believe that a discussion benefits scum more than town, why wouldn't you try to shut it down? I called him out (56) pointing out that his claim (53) that scum knows more about the setup is wrong (on average). He admits to having made a mistake (64). And it is an easy mistake to make. I don't think anyone was studying the NewD3 table as much as I was.

ofmerica (66) asked Dunnstral about Progo's "slip" (62), but without saying there was anything wrong with it. ofmerica spent a lot of P5 arguing that this was a slip. That looks to me like scum trying to start a wagon without actually being on it, and I said as much (116). ofmerica defends by saying that they didn't vote Progo because they wanted to hear from Progo first (118) ... but I'm not finding anywhere where ofmerica actually asked Progo to address what was happening, or anywhere where ofmerica actually addressed Progo directly at all. Just double-checked ofmerica's posts: they have not directly addressed Progo in this entire game.

Reads thus far:

NorwegianboyEE - Probably town for volunteering town-beneficial advice that wasn't obvious (at least to newbies) and wouldn't have been noticed if it were omitted.

fwogcarf - Might be scum for not trying to stop a discussion that he seems to have thought benefited mafia. I don't have a strong feeling about this though. Might be sub-optimal town play.

ofmerica - Might be scum for quietly trying to start a wagon without engaging in any actual questioning of the person the wagon targets. I'd put the odds of them being scum higher than fwogcarf, which is why this is still my vote.

I'd really like to hear more from the other five players though. Since I don't have much in their words to go off of, I'm going to post some stats:

AutoDefenestrator
5 posts: 44, 122, 123, 129, 130
447 words. 89 average words per post.

fwogcarf
12 posts: 38, 39, 48, 52, 53, 54, 64, 70, 78, 79, 80, 84
216 words. 18 words per post.

ofmercia
15 posts: 8, 30, 35, 37, 42, 66, 87, 94, 98, 103, 111, 112, 115, 118, 128
566 words. 37 words per post.

TistDaniel
19 posts: 13, 15, 19, 26, 31, 33, 36, 40, 41, 43, 47, 49, 50, 56, 116, 117, 119, 125, 131
2616 words. 137 words per post.

ProgoWoshua
9 posts: 45, 46, 51, 62, 68, 88, 89, 100, 102
183 words. 20 words per post.

KittyTacky
14 posts: 6, 11, 28, 29, 74, 75, 76, 86, 99, 110, 113, 114, 121, 124
437 words. 31 words per post.

NorwegianboyEE
37 posts: 9, 10, 12, 16, 18, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 27, 34, 57, 58, 59, 60, 61, 63, 69, 71, 73, 81, 83, 90, 91, 92, 93, 95, 96, 97, 101, 105, 106, 107, 109, 132
1474 words. 39 words per post.

Dunnstral
5 posts: 14, 17, 65, 67, 82
387 words. 77 words per post.

Frogsterking
7 posts: 7, 72, 77, 85, 104, 108, 120
234 words. 33 words per post.

I said (47) that I'm a very slow and analytical reader when it comes to mafia games. This is why. I'm collecting and organizing data as much as I can. I feel it helps with investigation. For example, you can tell at a glance that Dunnstral, AutoDefenestrator, and Frogsterking are the biggest lurkers in this game. fwogcarf and ProgoWoshua are less obvious lurkers: they've made more posts, but they've said less in those posts. I'm the most active player by wordcount, and second most active by postcount. NorwegianboyEE is the most active by postcount and the second most active by wordcount, which reinforces my townread on him: lurking is anti-town, and he's lurked less than anyone.

My vote remains on ofmerica.

[TistDaniel]

Oh, and I suppose I should point out that this is only current up to post 132. Though not much has happened since then.