Newbie 2089 | Endgame

[Micc]

Votecount 1.04

ofmercia (2) -

TistDaniel, KittyTacky

TistDaniel (1) -

AutoDefenestrator

Frogsterking (1) -

NorwegianboyEE

KittyTacky (1) -

Frogsterking

Dunnstral (1) -

fwogcarf

Not Voting (3) -

ProgoWoshua, Dunnstral, ofmercia

With 9 players alive it takes 5 votes to eliminate.

The deadline for Day 1 is in (expired on 2022-02-27 19:15:00).

[fwogcarf]

I don't like your logic on that.

But this is a newbie game so I GUESS I can respect that. It doesn't make me comfortable though

[KittyTacky]

Anyone has thoughts on Fwogcarf?

Town lean but shaky.

[KittyTacky]

I think I've seen the most scummy behavior from ofmercia, but I think true scum would make more of an effort to hide scummy behavior. Not quite ready to townread them yet, but they are at least one of the more active players.

Ofmercia is new. Honestly their posts ping me more as a newbie scum than a scummy newbie, if that makes sense.

[KittyTacky]

VOTE: Dunnstral activity read

also seems like volume tells will not work in this game

thank god honestly

I think he's lurking as town waiting for something.

how does that make sense?

I asked him a few things. I don't feel he's hiding anything. But also feels as if he doesn't know what to do.

He's quite experienced though.

[ofmercia]

I think I've seen the most scummy behavior from ofmercia, but I think true scum would make more of an effort to hide scummy behavior. Not quite ready to townread them yet, but they are at least one of the more active players.

Ofmercia is new. Honestly their posts ping me more as a newbie scum than a scummy newbie, if that makes sense.

A new scum player would be even more likely to hide scum behavior. Open wolfing is not something normally seen from inexperienced players.

Not that I'm doing anything scummy though, tist is just wrong. And I do scum read him so I can see his early vote on me sticking no matter what. He is sort of building the case for a while already, changing facts to suit the case instead of changing the case to suit the facts.

But I won't vote him, since for a chance to hit mafia we will almost certainly need 5 town votes and multiple have shown an interest to give him day 1 immunity due to his activity regardless of alignment. So I'd rather not tunnel that direction.

[KittyTacky]

When I was new I accidentally scummed it up as a

townie

, I don't think newbscum slipping up is implausible.

[NorwegianboyEE]

Frogs inactivity is bothering, and more than Dunnstral because i at least expected Frog to be more eqger to solve if he’s town.

[ofmercia]

When I was new I accidentally scummed it up as a

townie

, I don't think newbscum slipping up is implausible.

Which was tist's original point which you opposed.

[ofmercia]

Frogs inactivity is bothering, and more than Dunnstral because i at least expected Frog to be more eqger to solve if he’s town.

Have you played with frog before?

[NorwegianboyEE]

I’m in anlther game with them, but it’s not allowed to talk about ongoing games so i can’t say anything.

[ofmercia]

Why does activity = town?

[NorwegianboyEE]

I also feel like their activity is subpar and not very solvey.

[NorwegianboyEE]

Like keeping up an appearance y'know.
Is the vibe i get.

[ofmercia]

Maybe, hopefully he'll post the survey thing soon.

What do you think about tits activity? Are you getting a solvy vibe?

To me the post count (which we already have available, and updated every post) and the word count and word per post stuff feels like filler. Can't find a reason for town to be trying to use fillers. Then there's also the part about it being ok for town to fake claim which would invite so much chaos and chances for scum to play a much easier game. I can't really see those as pro town.

But at a stage even I was town reading it just on pure volume. In detail I can't find the towniness. There is a LOT of content though so my take is just some highlights that stood out to me.

What stood out to you as town? (Or scum) is it all just nai?

[TistDaniel]

Oh neat! I didn't realize that ISO gave you post count. Well that's handy!

So ofmercia, I agree: activity does not equal town. But I also believe that activity is pro-town. The more active scum is, the easier it is to find their motivations. So when someone is very inactive, they're making it more difficult for town to function, whether they're town or scum themselves.

For what it's worth, I do think wordcounts help as well. Looking at post counts, Frog has 14 posts, which puts him above Auto with 10, Progo with 11, and Dunnstral with 11. But Auto has 992 words, Progo has 1310, and Dunnstral has 511, while Frog only has 432. Frog has said less in this game than our three biggest lurkers--but you wouldn't know that looking only at post counts.

I asked in 207 about the status of Frog's survey. That was more than 36 hours ago, with no response. The last time we heard from him was 189, more than 48 hours ago. Frog did say in his first post that he'd post his survey 10-12 pages in, which is right where we are now.

Looking back at Progo's reads, he says Frog and ofmercia can't both be scum, and he thinks it's more likely that ofmercia is. Based on the Progo controversy alone, I agree. But ofmercia has been here all along, taking part in discussion, answering questions, putting pressure on people. I still don't feel so certain they're town, but if they're not, we at least should see some signs that we're not appearing more and more as we go forward. I can't say that about Frog.

VOTE: Frogsterking

Frog, where are you? What are your reads? Are you ever going to post your SSS?

[KittyTacky]

When I was new I accidentally scummed it up as a

townie

, I don't think newbscum slipping up is implausible.

Which was tist's original point which you opposed.

Well the thing is, you don't read like a newbie town being scummy to me.

[AutoDefenestrator]

Checking in. I personally don't have anyone read as scum as TistDaniel, in spite of the "I'm the only one talking so I'm the only one giving out reads in the first place" point. I may switch later onto someone like fwog or Dunnstral though.

I'd also like to hear about the survey thing and get done with D1 sooner than later.

[fwogcarf]

Checking in. I personally don't have anyone read as scum as TistDaniel, in spite of the "I'm the only one talking so I'm the only one giving out reads in the first place" point. I may switch later onto someone like fwog or Dunnstral though.

I'd also like to hear about the survey thing and get done with D1 sooner than later.

Why Dunnstral and I specifically? Did you just pick two random players off the top of your head?

I'll post some reads in a moment I need to reread some of the game

[fwogcarf]

i dont have an alignment read on tistdaniel but he doesnt feel partnered to anyone at the moment.

norwegian is still town

dunnstral and frogsterking are both inactive. i would scumread them for it but activity reads arent too reliable. frogsterking's vote and unvote on progo probably means that they arent mafia together (not too sure)

i think progo and ofmercia arent mafia together. ofmercia is probably not partnered with norwegian either

i don't have a read on kitty

i do not like a majority of autodefenestrator's posts, his first ones to me explain how he's going to play the game, which i find scum indicative in most cases. i feel like he hasn't done anything this game

[fwogcarf]

im more confident on this read

VOTE: AutoDefenestrator

[TistDaniel]

I'm with fwog on this: I don't like how quiet Auto is. I don't think I need to rehash what I've said about lurking, because I feel like I've said it quite a lot recently.

I don't like how quiet Auto is, but I can also understand town having the views Auto has. I'm skeptical of how useful a lot of the scumhunting tactics people talk about actually are, especially on Day 1, so I can understand being reluctant of taking part in the process, particularly with how long day length is here. (I've read some games on other forums, and day length is 48 hours or so, so activity expectations are very different.)

I could believe Auto stepping forward and being more useful on Day 2. That said, I don't have so much faith in that outcome that I'd try to dissuade a wagon on him, or use a power on him tonight.

[ofmercia]

I'm with fwog on this: I don't like how quiet Auto is. I don't think I need to rehash what I've said about lurking, because I feel like I've said it quite a lot recently.

I don't like how quiet Auto is, but I can also understand town having the views Auto has. I'm skeptical of how useful a lot of the scumhunting tactics people talk about actually are, especially on Day 1, so I can understand being reluctant of taking part in the process, particularly with how long day length is here. (I've read some games on other forums, and day length is 48 hours or so, so activity expectations are very different.)

I could believe Auto stepping forward and being more useful on Day 2. That said, I don't have so much faith in that outcome that I'd try to dissuade a wagon on him, or use a power on him tonight.

What are the scum hunting tactics people talk about? Which reminds me. Frog needs to post that SSS tactic he said he was going to post 2 days ago.

[TistDaniel]

In one of Micc's pre-game posts, he posted a link to a wiki page of articles on how to play well. I found a lot of the advice very disappointing.

"Antrax's Guide to Being a Good Townie" repeatedly gives the advice "Use your brain" without actually explaining what that entails. As a psych student, I can tell you that the brain has particular flaws that you need to be aware of and compensate for. You can think of it like a gun that always shoots left: unless you know that the gun always shoots left, and you deliberately aim to the right of your target to compensate, you will never hit your target. Telling people "Use your brain" without telling them *how* is a recipe for failure. It's like how conspiracy theorists repeatedly say "Do your own research" because when the average high-school graduate does their own research, they come to very different conclusions from people who do research professionally.

"Mastin's Golden Rules" suggests coming up with logic to justify your gut reactions. Again, as a psych student, I think that's the exact opposite of what you should do. There's a psychological phenomenon called "choice blindness", where people make choices without knowing why. You can actually have someone take a political survey, then swap it for a completely different set of answers when they're not looking, and ask them why they answered the questions in a particular way, and they'll tell you why *when they actually gave the exact opposite answers*. Like you can have someone who strongly believes that abortion is murder, swap their survey for one that says they selected the multiple choice option that abortions should be legal, and ask them about it, and they'll justify why they gave you an answer that's the exact opposite of what they really believe. "Oh, I really just meant in very particular cases, etc." So in my humble opinion, we should listen to gut reactions (gut reactions are often more accurate than conscious analysis) but we also need to acknowledge that they're gut reactions that we don't actually have any reasoning for.

Going beyond guides and into what I see in use, I feel like a lot of people majorly overvalue "slips". The idea is that scum somehow can't keep straight in their head that seven of the nine players in the game are not in on their secret, and so they keep saying scummy things without thinking about it. The idea seems really silly to me. I mean maybe in an in-person game it might happen from time to time, but we're all taking our time to write out replies and get all the details right. I think it's probably far more likely for town players to look scummy by accident than for scum players to accidentally let slip their one big secret. Not to say that Progo is town, but if he's scum, I don't think he'll ever out himself with pretend instead of intend. And I felt that way before the revelation that English seems to be his second language.

I'm also skeptical of reads based on player meta. "I played with him before, and he's like this as town." I mean that's great and all, and there probably is some value to that, but at the same time, N = 1, no control group, and no blinding for observer bias. I don't think this carries as much weight as many people seem to believe it does.

[NorwegianboyEE]

Hey you’re welcome to type your own guide if you catch scum today Listdaniel.
xP