Newbie 2089 | Endgame

[TistDaniel]

It's page 13 and Frogsterking is now officially overdue on his SSS.

[NorwegianboyEE]

Still ok with my vote on Frog, and nothing much i feel the need to comment about. Except that i'm not all that sure of Mercia being scum, i don't really see most of their posts as showing scummy motivation. Sure they might 'look' shifty, but on second thought i'm not sure most of their actions truly come from someone with an scum allignment, they just say what's on their mind or don't try to act like holier than they are. So conclusion: town.

[NorwegianboyEE]

ofmercia/kitty not w/w

Based on what?

[KittyTacky]

Auto: Looks like you're saying in 277 that I'm recommending seeking breadcrumbs and rationalizing gutreads, when that's the exact opposite of what I recommended in 273. Have you just given up on reading the thread?

Kitty: I agree that ofmercia seemed scummy in response to the Progo controversy. But ofmercia is right that they said the RNG stuff after I unvoted. Sure, Progo was scumreading them, but that's not a whole lot of pressure.

Let's look at Progo's activity:

Two posts at the top of page 5: 100, 102. We hear nothing at all from hum after that until 205, more than a hundred posts and four pages later. He drops his reads in 216, and then, up until ofmercia's RNG comment, never made another post. Progo had put very nearly the absolute minimum pressure on ofmercia that he absolutely could. Plus, I had just removed my vote from ofmercia, which I originally placed in 116 on page 5.

ofmercia has had a vote on them ever since Norwegian's vote in 93 on page 4. In other words, ofmercia has had at least one vote against them, sometimes two, for eight of the twelve pages of this game. They had been scumread by one of our least active players three pages earlier, and never heard from the guy since then.

I mean yeah, I guess ofmercia had a little pressure on them, but not more than they've had on them for most of this game. Actually, it feels like significantly less, because my vote which had ridden for six pages had just moved.

Are you really sure the "RNG" comment was intended to deflect pressure?

I'm not completely sure if it was. From my perspective it made sense though, I'm a bit trigger-happy with making that kind of play to save my hide if constantly hounded by someone all day (generally as scum). Even if it wasn't, ofmercia is still the scummiest player to me currently, both off "vibe" and their strange early push.

[AutoDefenestrator]

Auto: Looks like you're saying in 277 that I'm recommending seeking breadcrumbs and rationalizing gutreads, when that's the exact opposite of what I recommended in 273. Have you just given up on reading the thread?

I wasn't talking to you, but was making a reference to what you said. Have you just given up on reading the thread?

[TistDaniel]

I hate quote blocks, but ok.

I'll be sure to artificially boost my visual contribution to town by hunting breadcrumbs and making up vacuous rationalizations for gutreads from now on (Daniel, 2022), sir.

I read this as you ascribing those views to me. I realize you're not addressing me, but you're presenting it as if these are views which I agree with.

That just feels a little weird as it comes right after this post:

"Mastin's Golden Rules" suggests coming up with logic to justify your gut reactions. Again, as a psych student, I think that's the exact opposite of what you should do.

[...]

Going beyond guides and into what I see in use, I feel like a lot of people majorly overvalue "slips". The idea is that scum somehow can't keep straight in their head that seven of the nine players in the game are not in on their secret, and so they keep saying scummy things without thinking about it. The idea seems really silly to me.

It seems like you're suggesting that I'm promoting things that I literally said were bad ideas just four posts earlier.

[Micc]

Votecount 1.05

Frogsterking (2) -

NorwegianboyEE, TistDaniel

ofmercia (2) -

KittyTacky, ProgoWoshua

KittyTacky (2) -

Frogsterking, ofmercia

TistDaniel (1) -

AutoDefenestrator

AutoDefenestrator (1) -

fwogcarf

Not Voting (1) -

Dunnstral

With 9 players alive it takes 5 votes to eliminate.

The deadline for Day 1 is in (expired on 2022-02-27 19:15:00).

Dunnstral has requested replacement.
Prodding Frogsterking.

[Micc]

StrangeMatter replaces Dunnstral.

[StrangeMatter]

Hey.

[StrangeMatter]

I think I've seen the most scummy behavior from ofmercia, but I think true scum would make more of an effort to hide scummy behavior. Not quite ready to townread them yet, but they are at least one of the more active players.

Ofmercia is new. Honestly their posts ping me more as a newbie scum than a scummy newbie, if that makes sense.

Sorry can’t post as much but, can you point out what and why you think this?

[StrangeMatter]

A lot of people have been saying that discussing town strategy is not alignment indicative, but I'm also the most town-read player (18, 59, 60, 72, 128, 137) when most of what I've done in this game is discuss town strategy. Not quite sure how to interpret that. Anyway, I decided to read back over responses to my discussion of town strategy.

Dunnstral came in (14) immediately after my first post (13), answering a lot of my questions. He didn't really go deep into advice for town strategy. He also didn't agree with my ideas about town power fakeclaiming. I asked (15) if cop should claim the instant they detect scum, or wait to find the second scum. (I personally was thinking that cop should claim immediately after detecting scum, since that's vitally important information for town to have, and there's a 50% chance there will be a doctor to protect cop.) Dunnstral never actually answered this question instead talking (17) about how cop shouldn't claim when they *haven't* found any scum yet. Could just have skimmed over my post and misunderstood.

NorwegianboyEE came in (16) to reply to Dunnstral's answers (14) to my questions (13). His advice is good. He townreads me after (18). I asked about an unlikely hypothetical situation with doctor (19). I think it's best to claim in that circumstance. NorwegianboyEE disagrees with me (20), but his perspective is a normal perspective for people to have. NAI. He responds (21) to another unlikely situation about cop that I asked about (19). His answer seems reasonable to me. Elaborates on views (22, 23), and points out (24) that cop doesn't need to claim after a guilty to make an elimination happen, so claim should be a last resort. He elaborates on this further (26). He didn't have to point this out, and I don't think anyone would have noticed if he hadn't, and it's good advice that hadn't occurred to me, and probably hadn't occurred to other newbie town. I think this *is* alignment-indicative, and it indicates town.

KittyTacky came in (28) to elaborate on what NorwegianboyEE said (26), then disagreed with my fakeclaim ideas (29). This is not an unusual perspective to take. NAI.

ofmerica pretty much just restated accepted site meta (35) when prompted (34). They seem to have misunderstood what I was saying about what mafia would know in my hypothetical, so I clarified (36). Then they went on to say that it's a bad idea to claim mason (37, 42). I'm not going to say this is alignment-indicative though, because I think mafia would want cop to claim cop rather than mason. I can read what ofmerica said as either town-beneficial or scum-beneficial.

fwogcarf said (48) that strategy discussion is NAI. I think it can be AI, as I explained in my read on NorwegianboyEE. Still, I can believe town having fwogcarf's perspective here. I prodded (49) saying that this was beneficial to town, and fwogcarf blew it off (52) saying that it wouldn't factor into his reads. He then said (53) that it benefits mafia more than town, but he wouldn't protest if the discussion continued without him (54). Seems a bit shady to me. If you believe that a discussion benefits scum more than town, why wouldn't you try to shut it down? I called him out (56) pointing out that his claim (53) that scum knows more about the setup is wrong (on average). He admits to having made a mistake (64). And it is an easy mistake to make. I don't think anyone was studying the NewD3 table as much as I was.

ofmerica (66) asked Dunnstral about Progo's "slip" (62), but without saying there was anything wrong with it. ofmerica spent a lot of P5 arguing that this was a slip. That looks to me like scum trying to start a wagon without actually being on it, and I said as much (116). ofmerica defends by saying that they didn't vote Progo because they wanted to hear from Progo first (118) ... but I'm not finding anywhere where ofmerica actually asked Progo to address what was happening, or anywhere where ofmerica actually addressed Progo directly at all. Just double-checked ofmerica's posts: they have not directly addressed Progo in this entire game.

Reads thus far:

NorwegianboyEE - Probably town for volunteering town-beneficial advice that wasn't obvious (at least to newbies) and wouldn't have been noticed if it were omitted.

fwogcarf - Might be scum for not trying to stop a discussion that he seems to have thought benefited mafia. I don't have a strong feeling about this though. Might be sub-optimal town play.

ofmerica - Might be scum for quietly trying to start a wagon without engaging in any actual questioning of the person the wagon targets. I'd put the odds of them being scum higher than fwogcarf, which is why this is still my vote.

I'd really like to hear more from the other five players though. Since I don't have much in their words to go off of, I'm going to post some stats:

AutoDefenestrator
5 posts: 44, 122, 123, 129, 130
447 words. 89 average words per post.

fwogcarf
12 posts: 38, 39, 48, 52, 53, 54, 64, 70, 78, 79, 80, 84
216 words. 18 words per post.

ofmercia
15 posts: 8, 30, 35, 37, 42, 66, 87, 94, 98, 103, 111, 112, 115, 118, 128
566 words. 37 words per post.

TistDaniel
19 posts: 13, 15, 19, 26, 31, 33, 36, 40, 41, 43, 47, 49, 50, 56, 116, 117, 119, 125, 131
2616 words. 137 words per post.

ProgoWoshua
9 posts: 45, 46, 51, 62, 68, 88, 89, 100, 102
183 words. 20 words per post.

KittyTacky
14 posts: 6, 11, 28, 29, 74, 75, 76, 86, 99, 110, 113, 114, 121, 124
437 words. 31 words per post.

NorwegianboyEE
37 posts: 9, 10, 12, 16, 18, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 27, 34, 57, 58, 59, 60, 61, 63, 69, 71, 73, 81, 83, 90, 91, 92, 93, 95, 96, 97, 101, 105, 106, 107, 109, 132
1474 words. 39 words per post.

Dunnstral
5 posts: 14, 17, 65, 67, 82
387 words. 77 words per post.

Frogsterking
7 posts: 7, 72, 77, 85, 104, 108, 120
234 words. 33 words per post.

I said (47) that I'm a very slow and analytical reader when it comes to mafia games. This is why. I'm collecting and organizing data as much as I can. I feel it helps with investigation. For example, you can tell at a glance that Dunnstral, AutoDefenestrator, and Frogsterking are the biggest lurkers in this game. fwogcarf and ProgoWoshua are less obvious lurkers: they've made more posts, but they've said less in those posts. I'm the most active player by wordcount, and second most active by postcount. NorwegianboyEE is the most active by postcount and the second most active by wordcount, which reinforces my townread on him: lurking is anti-town, and he's lurked less than anyone.

My vote remains on ofmerica.

Pars of this post reads similarly to the player Sommus (Who was scum) in the last newbie game being Information instead of Analysis, such as the early paragraphs and the words per post.

I'm still very on the fence right now (posts that are townie but this post pings me as scummy) with Daniel's alignment from this but I need to keep reading.

[TistDaniel]

Welcome to the game, StrangeMatter! I notice you're quoting relatively recent posts. Have you been following the conversation? Are you roughly caught up?

[StrangeMatter]

i do not like a majority of autodefenestrator's posts, his first ones to me explain how he's going to play the game, which i find scum indicative in most cases.

i feel like he hasn't done anything this game

I'm not sure I'm following this bolded part here. Exactly what about that is scum indicative that translates over multiple games?

[StrangeMatter]

I'm caught up on most major parts of this game, but I'm just going to point out things that stick out to me.

[NorwegianboyEE]

Ey, ok based on you being a much more readable slot than Dunnstral i'm gonna put you out of my PoE for now.

[TistDaniel]

Good to hear you're mostly caught up. My wife should be out for a few hours, and all I'm doing is wrapping her birthday presents and occasionally walking the dog, so I should be available if you have any questions for me.

[StrangeMatter]

Consistent or not consistent isn’t necesarilly indicative of town or scum.
Town players contradict themselves all the time. And players that are very consistent when they are usually not, may be scum.
Is consistency something you scum hunt with Frog?

This is one of those posts that is so easily faked with how often I've heard this exact phrase and wording.

[StrangeMatter]

It's not wrong, but not really unique enough to say this is indicative of town.

Also, I gtg I need to do my work. Be back soon.

[fwogcarf]

ofmercia/kitty not w/w

Based on what?

their recent interactions

i dont think a wolf votes their partner based on the conversation that took place afterwards

[fwogcarf]

i do not like a majority of autodefenestrator's posts, his first ones to me explain how he's going to play the game, which i find scum indicative in most cases.

i feel like he hasn't done anything this game

I'm not sure I'm following this bolded part here. Exactly what about that is scum indicative that translates over multiple games?

This is a read that's supported from other games that are not on this site, and I tried to make this play when I rolled scum in one game, didn't work out.

[fwogcarf]

Oh, I haven't read any of it, because it's pretty obvious the game is mostly rng especially day 1. So there's probably no reliable guide to catching scum. Especially with all the varying behaviors each game from both alignments.

lmao. It's not quite RNG because scum tend to be scummy. Like you for example.

Actually proving me right. So keep going.

This is still scum. Not much ofmercia said or did makes much sense as town. Jumped on someone for what is blatantly a language mistake, when people started piling up votes, attempts to deflect with "the game is RNG".

What? We were discussing something totally different. This is a big stretch lol. The two aren't even related at all. This has to be scum.

VOTE: kittytacky

This post is what solidified that read for me

[TistDaniel]

Could be bussing? I mean, it's still early in the day, and there isn't much actual risk. Plus, if this does actually carry through to elimination, Kitty would be just about the last person we'd suspect.

It seems very unlikely, but I wouldn't say impossible.

[fwogcarf]

I highly doubt scum busses D1

Even if it was some big brained play, this is a newbie game, and I would expect both scum to want to remain alive

[TistDaniel]

Yeah, you're right. Just because it's possible doesn't mean it's at all probable. I think we can safely say they're not scum together. It was poor reasoning on my part to suggest it.

[NorwegianboyEE]

Consistent or not consistent isn’t necesarilly indicative of town or scum.
Town players contradict themselves all the time. And players that are very consistent when they are usually not, may be scum.
Is consistency something you scum hunt with Frog?

This is one of those posts that is so easily faked with how often I've heard this exact phrase and wording.

Post faked? I stated a fact.
TF you talking about.