MT 2263: Web of Lies - Game Over


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Post Post #1550 (ISO) » Tue Feb 22, 2022 3:46 pm

Post by Noraa »

it means he's town @_@
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Post Post #1551 (ISO) » Tue Feb 22, 2022 3:46 pm

Post by Noraa »

but it does depend i think.
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Post Post #1552 (ISO) » Tue Feb 22, 2022 3:47 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1550, Noraa wrote:it means he's town @_@
I have made this argument before lmao
I have a GTKAS now! - Come ask me questions!

They're super opinionated and make a lot of assumptions, they're also pretty clumsy with word choice - Bell
Luke, respect for your scumgame has gone up massively - Hectic
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Post Post #1553 (ISO) » Tue Feb 22, 2022 3:49 pm

Post by Noraa »

In post 1552, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 1550, Noraa wrote:it means he's town @_@
I have made this argument before lmao
it might be true tbh
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Post Post #1554 (ISO) » Tue Feb 22, 2022 3:50 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

In post 1624, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 1580, Off The Hook wrote:it's hard to verify how his posting rate measures to each game without doing some fancy shit I lack the time for
I did fancy shit because why not?

Spoiler:
Image

So, I ran all three games that you linked as well as every game that I can remember playing with Dunn through the spread sheet. Calculated Dunn's percentage of all posts made day 1 compared to how many players were in the game, then did conditional formatting to color his higher post rate games green. (because you are positing that lurk dunn = scum dunn) to then see if there is any corrolation.

The conditional formatting guessed incorrectly 4 times, got it right 1 time, and then it did not give a result on his middle of the road game.


If anything, this is wrong more then it is right, and lurk Dunn = town Dunn.
In post 1627, Lukewarm wrote:
In post 1588, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 1580, Off The Hook wrote:https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=87781 - Chromatic Ascension, Dunn was Knight Beige
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=83&t=87638 - True Love
https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=83971 - Forest Fire

some (semi-)recent samples of lurkscum Dunn
there could be others from games I didn't keep tabs on but it's hard to verify how his posting rate measures to each game without doing some fancy shit I lack the time for

-GE
I'm not lurking in the first 2 games, I'm town in the last game.
omg. If you were town in Forest fire, that would eliminate the singular correct guess based on posting habits, and it will have been wrong in every single listed game lmao
In a prior game, I put in a lot of work to prove that inactive dunn =/= scum dunn
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They're super opinionated and make a lot of assumptions, they're also pretty clumsy with word choice - Bell
Luke, respect for your scumgame has gone up massively - Hectic
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Post Post #1555 (ISO) » Tue Feb 22, 2022 3:52 pm

Post by Noraa »

i want to see if i can get a correct read on dunn by page 5. let's see!!!
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Post Post #1556 (ISO) » Tue Feb 22, 2022 3:55 pm

Post by Noraa »

town. i had to look a bit further. about ten posts in iso maybe.
i have trouble reading the shakespeare language @_@
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Post Post #1557 (ISO) » Tue Feb 22, 2022 4:09 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

Yeah, but a smathering of 7 random Dunn games showed that Dunn was ALWAYS lower activity then the average player (average post count would have been 100% on my table. He never got there)

Once you correct forrest fire, every game he was between 0-29% he was town.
Every game he was over 50% he was scum

So the really low activity Dunn was town Dunn
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Luke, respect for your scumgame has gone up massively - Hectic
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Post Post #1558 (ISO) » Tue Feb 22, 2022 4:10 pm

Post by Noraa »

activity tells r kind of easy to break though TBH
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Post Post #1559 (ISO) » Tue Feb 22, 2022 4:10 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

I don't use this to read him. I have not actually run the numbers on any of his games since.

But I will laugh at anyone who ever tells me that low activity dunn is scum dunn forever now.
I have a GTKAS now! - Come ask me questions!

They're super opinionated and make a lot of assumptions, they're also pretty clumsy with word choice - Bell
Luke, respect for your scumgame has gone up massively - Hectic
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Post Post #1560 (ISO) » Tue Feb 22, 2022 4:11 pm

Post by Noraa »

but i believe you fs.
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Post Post #1561 (ISO) » Tue Feb 22, 2022 4:11 pm

Post by Noraa »

In post 1559, Lukewarm wrote:But I will laugh at anyone who ever tells me that low activity dunn is scum dunn forever now.
agreed. you do that!
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Post Post #1562 (ISO) » Tue Feb 22, 2022 4:11 pm

Post by Lukewarm »

It was more a "Low activity is a terrible reason to think that Dunn is scum" point that I was making
I have a GTKAS now! - Come ask me questions!

They're super opinionated and make a lot of assumptions, they're also pretty clumsy with word choice - Bell
Luke, respect for your scumgame has gone up massively - Hectic
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Post Post #1563 (ISO) » Tue Feb 22, 2022 5:05 pm

Post by Bell »

In post 1456, Lukewarm wrote:Gg, Bell I'm glad we managed to not miselim you along the way!
Me too.
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Post Post #1564 (ISO) » Tue Feb 22, 2022 5:08 pm

Post by RH9 »

In post 1563, Bell wrote:
In post 1456, Lukewarm wrote:Gg, Bell I'm glad we managed to not miselim you along the way!
Me too.
I was convinced that you were going to get mislimmed.

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Post Post #1565 (ISO) » Tue Feb 22, 2022 5:08 pm

Post by RH9 »

Thank goodness that I was wrong!

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Post Post #1566 (ISO) » Tue Feb 22, 2022 5:12 pm

Post by RH9 »

Sorry Bell anyways for not having faith in you.

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Post Post #1567 (ISO) » Tue Feb 22, 2022 5:17 pm

Post by Bell »

1. It’s mafia and I’m in the wrong for getting frustrated at being pushed. No matter what the reason as long as it’s within win con.
2. I probably would have gotten eliminated if the scum team didn’t concede. Maybe if I tried and spammed more I could have gotten enchant limmed before getting limmed myself.
3. LLD, if they didn’t care about the game being lost would have easily stomped me after though and I’d be dead before her.
Prolly.
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Post Post #1568 (ISO) » Tue Feb 22, 2022 5:22 pm

Post by RH9 »

Bell. I thought that your solve was perfect.

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Post Post #1569 (ISO) » Tue Feb 22, 2022 5:23 pm

Post by MathBlade »

Mainly even with the not slip it was more I was pretty sure LLD was scum even before the claim and didn’t want to push her
Noraa and the others voted her but I just couldn’t push her

I don’t think LLD dies here but maybe she does

I just had a PoE of three even before the slip. So I was predisposed looking for any little thing sorry
ScumBlade's eloquent performance left me utterly disoriented, debased, depraved and sent me spiraling into a horrific murky abyss with emotional turmoil and immense despair as my only companions until slowly I suffocate in my own gloom, surrounded by failure. I will never recover. -- Zachstralkita about Mini 1841
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Post Post #1570 (ISO) » Tue Feb 22, 2022 5:24 pm

Post by MathBlade »

I kinda spoke a bit in the ban feedback thread a little of the pain that was going on but I needed help to push her and not you
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Post Post #1571 (ISO) » Tue Feb 22, 2022 5:30 pm

Post by Bell »

In post 1568, RH9 wrote:Bell. I thought that your solve was perfect.
I was pushing SM throughout the game incorrectly.
I only got the solve right because there were three people in the PoE and one of them was me.

@MB: please don’t apologize. I also openly admitted I don’t know how to push LLD either.
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Post Post #1572 (ISO) » Tue Feb 22, 2022 5:40 pm

Post by Bell »

My dog died during this game. So I didn’t read much but the absolute end of the exchange between house and LLD and never read back.
Maybe I will anyway, later but all I got from it was that house misgendered LLD and refusing to apologize or back down because I guess if you don’t respect someone you can call them whatever you want which yeah. Good ban was good.
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Post Post #1573 (ISO) » Tue Feb 22, 2022 6:04 pm

Post by MathBlade »

In post 1572, Bell wrote:My dog died during this game. So I didn’t read much but the absolute end of the exchange between house and LLD and never read back.
Maybe I will anyway, later but all I got from it was that house misgendered LLD and refusing to apologize or back down because I guess if you don’t respect someone you can call them whatever you want which yeah. Good ban was good.
It’s a lot worse than that but I kinda need to be 18+ to explain why just yes ban is good
ScumBlade's eloquent performance left me utterly disoriented, debased, depraved and sent me spiraling into a horrific murky abyss with emotional turmoil and immense despair as my only companions until slowly I suffocate in my own gloom, surrounded by failure. I will never recover. -- Zachstralkita about Mini 1841
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Post Post #1574 (ISO) » Tue Feb 22, 2022 6:05 pm

Post by MathBlade »

And May your dog enjoy doggy Heaven or a peaceful rest

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