Newbie 2089 | Endgame

[Frogsterking]

Yes what you've said is true fwog and I actually scum read enough of your reactions to be willing to double down on you now fwog. I think you have a like 50% chance to flip scum which is great expected value for town on D1.

[Frogsterking]

Thanks, Frog!

Could you use help with your survey? If you're working with the IPIP, I have some experience with that.

Yes I could use help. My design for the SSS has a first and fourth short written response question section (like a mini pre test and post test questionnaire), the second section is completing and posting the results of a free and credible OCEAN test and the third section is a 15 question Likert scale I made to help with D1 scumhunting and early strategy.

Likely only desktop users can be expected to complete it and players can opt to complete individual sections whenever they get an opportunity rather than all at once.

The place I got stuck on is which 3-5 questions would be best for the mini questionnaires at the beginning and end.

[TistDaniel]

So what is your aim for the first and fourth section? Are you trying to see how attitudes change before and after the questionnaire? Gathering additional information? Collecting material for sentiment analysis?

My other question would be how long this will take to complete. I know some of the OCEAN tests can be long, but the longer a questionnaire is, the fewer people complete it.

[Frogsterking]

I think the aim of the first and fourth sections is to prompt players to start sharing useful information quickly. I'm predicting this has some minor positive affect on town win rate or D1 scum lim. Of course if the questions are poorly chosen and useless information starts being shared very quickly I don't think that'll be positive for town win rate or D1 scum lim. So there is some degree of precision required in choosing what those questions will be.

I think the OCEAN section was supposed to take much longer than the other sections to complete. Completing the non-OCEAN sections was only supposed to take an average like 5 minutes each.

How accurate are the shorter versions of the IPIP compared to the standard versions?

[fwogcarf]

Yes what you've said is true fwog and I actually scum read enough of your reactions to be willing to double down on you now fwog. I think you have a like 50% chance to flip scum which is great expected value for town on D1.

Hm, no.

Here is the problem I have with some of your reads. First off you never answered my question when I asked how I, specifically, was scummier than Kitty. Along the way you continue to talk about the two of us in a couple of short posts that don't say anything. You've linked a couple posts describing that they had more content than the "positions" we've taken. Why is this? And then right after that you say "I don't like how Fwog/Kitty put just enough effort to get townread and are posed with their outted scumreads on town limbait". There is so much wrong with this statement. Number one, of course you put in effort, that's usually how a lot of people get townread day 1. Look at Tist with his wordy posts, look at Norwegian with the amount of posts they've made. Then you look at someone like yourself/Auto/StrangeMatter who haven't made a whole lot of posts/put a whole lot of words in them. The top posters managed to get themselves out of mostly consensus PoE for today (because I know some people don't like Tist, which is fine). Specifically the "outted scumread" part is pinging me because you're discouraging me from making a scumread on someone who you think is town. I'm allowed to have my own opinions about people in the game, and in this case, I think Auto is scum. I'll get to that in a minute

Second off, your limbait reads aren't good reads. Your explanation for Auto being town is because he "doesn't post much" and is "paranoid of a popular town read". The second reason for that is fine, but the first one isn't. How does it make sense for someone like Auto to be town in your eyes because he doesn't post much, while someone like me is, in your words "50% to flip scum", with a decent amount of posts? I get that I don't put words in my posts but that's just how I play. I'm not a wordy type of guy unless I absolutely need to be.

Third off is the post where you say "You have a 50% chance to flip scum, which is great expected value for town" itself. If you're really relying on self calculated RNG more than your own intuition and logic thinking then you need to change your game up a bit because that's not how mafia works. You and Tist can calculate all the probabilities you want but at the end of the day, the game is about deception, not probability. In that same post you say "I scumread a lot of your reactions to be willing to double down on you" Ok, what reactions pinged you? Which ones were scummier than others?

[fwogcarf]

I may switch later onto someone like fwog or Dunnstral though.

Dunnstral/StrangeMatter is definitely off the radar for now, seems as if everyone agrees with that

so far

. Still neutral on Norwegian (a 'town-controlling and analyzing' attitude is easy to pull off as a SE town and might work on newer players). Frogster remains a townlean in spite of the recent inactivity.

Hence I'd still like to vote off Daniel or Fwog, preference on former.

Would also like to know why I'm suddenly a scumread for you when there's no other mention of it in your ISO

[Frogsterking]

@fwog 379

I scum read pretty much every part of your reaction. I believe you're more likely to flip scum than random chance would indicate.

[fwogcarf]

@fwog 379

I scum read pretty much every part of your reaction. I believe you're more likely to flip scum than random chance would indicate.

Why so?

I'm asking for you reasoning WHY you see it that way. You just saying "I'm scumreading it" without any reasoning is not going to fly with me

[NorwegianboyEE]

I'm so lost now.

[NorwegianboyEE]

My townreads are Daniel, Mercia and tbh i think Strangematter has been pretty townie as well.

[Frogsterking]

@fwog 379

I scum read pretty much every part of your reaction. I believe you're more likely to flip scum than random chance would indicate.

Why so?

I'm asking for you reasoning WHY you see it that way. You just saying "I'm scumreading it" without any reasoning is not going to fly with me

I think asking why over and over again is one kind of scummy reaction to being voted.

[Frogsterking]

My townreads are Daniel, Mercia and tbh i think Strangematter has been pretty townie as well.

I agree with you and I also include you and Progo in my town reads but I don't include Strangematter.

[ProgoWoshua]

@fwog 379

I scum read pretty much every part of your reaction. I believe you're more likely to flip scum than random chance would indicate.

Why so?

I'm asking for you reasoning WHY you see it that way. You just saying "I'm scumreading it" without any reasoning is not going to fly with me

I think asking why over and over again is one kind of scummy reaction to being voted.

Refusing to respond to the "why"s is even scummier.

I ask you to properly address #379 instead of deflecting it.

[fwogcarf]

I still think Auto's 123 is scummy. While I do see some truth in the first part of the post I don't think it's a definitive reason to not be able to make reads. Sure you can't make them immediately and that's fine but he outright states that he can't make "a real read" or fish for reactions. I don't get why he needed to say this last part.

He's consistently gone after Tist today, which starts in 195. Normally this wouldn't be a problem but it's HOW he's going about this is the problem I have with him.
Most of if not all of his recent posts are about Tist, whether it's responding to Tist's posts or talking about how scummy he is. He did call Norwegian and Frogster town in an earlier post and then only has reads on those two players in a later post along with Tist and I, which is weird in itself. His next post after that vote is 267 where again he calls Tist scum and doesn't form a read on anybody else. "I might switch to someone like fwog or Dunnstral though" is said without further explanation, and suddenly takes the Dunnstral/StrangeMatter slot off the list because "everyone agrees with that so far" (354). This post introduces him throwing me into the PoE for some reason, which I find strange because he's never explained why he scumread my slot. (And somehow Frogster is now his only townread)

His 209 looks really bad for StrangeMatter if Auto flips scum. Auto seems to not want to have them respond to Tist about a scumhunting strategy, which I find more suspicious than if that slot had discussed their strategy at all.

[fwogcarf]

My townreads are Daniel, Mercia and tbh i think Strangematter has been pretty townie as well.

any reasoning for them?

[fwogcarf]

@fwog 379

I scum read pretty much every part of your reaction. I believe you're more likely to flip scum than random chance would indicate.

Why so?

I'm asking for you reasoning WHY you see it that way. You just saying "I'm scumreading it" without any reasoning is not going to fly with me

I think asking why over and over again is one kind of scummy reaction to being voted.

Because you're not providing any reasoning for it.

[fwogcarf]

Your reasoning now for me continously asking why over and over doesn't count because that's not your original reason for scumreading me

[Frogsterking]

Fair enough: @379

I think scum are in some kind of mix of the KittyTacky /fwog slots and the two slots that replaced out. I think the towniness of the players at this table might cause the scum team to self-select for moderate skill or replace out.

Your slot is consistent with a moderately skilled scum and Auto's isn't, so I'm thinking Auto is more likely to be a townie who just happens to be getting pushed for their play.

You can always argue that the replacement slots are more likely to flip scum because the scum got intimidated by the town core and left and that could be correct. I'm assuming some competency on the part of both scum team and town when suspecting you and Tacky.

[TistDaniel]

Frog: So you're looking for stuff like "How much experience do you have with Mafia?" Stuff that gets useful information out and starts a conversation?

I'll have to get back to you on the IPIP. I have exact numbers on my computer at home. (Out with my wife right now, writing this on my phone.) Every time you reduce the number of questions, you reduce the accuracy, but some questions are more important than others. So removing some questions results in a very large drop in accuracy, while others results in a much smaller drop. But I experimented with reducing the number of questions back in 2019, tracking how much accuracy was lost, so I do have the numbers and the most important questions saved.

[ProgoWoshua]

Fair enough: @379

So... You don't have a problem with #379 after all?

[fwogcarf]

Fair enough: @379

I think scum are in some kind of mix of the KittyTacky /fwog slots and the two slots that replaced out. I think the towniness of the players at this table might cause the scum team to self-select for moderate skill or replace out.

Your slot is consistent with a moderately skilled scum and Auto's isn't, so I'm thinking Auto is more likely to be a townie who just happens to be getting pushed for their play.

You can always argue that the replacement slots are more likely to flip scum because the scum got intimidated by the town core and left and that could be correct. I'm assuming some competency on the part of both scum team and town when suspecting you and Tacky.

You're still not pointing out what reactions I had that you thought were scummy

[Frogsterking]

Fair enough: @379

So... You don't have a problem with #379 after all?

If you town read fwog for some reason just tell me. I will push Kitty instead.

[ProgoWoshua]

Fair enough: @379

So... You don't have a problem with #379 after all?

If you town read fwog for some reason just tell me. I will push Kitty instead.

This isn't about my read on fwog, this is about my read on

you

.

First, you go:

@fwog 379

I scum read pretty much every part of your reaction. I believe you're more likely to flip scum than random chance would indicate.

Then, after both me (#387 ) and fwog (#390) ask you to explain your scumread, you go:

Fair enough: @379

It sounds to me that you wanted to push on that post without a real reason... Then, once you were expected to explain your reason, you backed off. This sounds like something Mafia would do.

If you have an alternative interpretation of events, please share with me.

[Frogsterking]

@Daniel Yes questions like that, and that sounds great about your work on the IPIP.

[Frogsterking]

Fair enough: @379

I think scum are in some kind of mix of the KittyTacky /fwog slots and the two slots that replaced out. I think the towniness of the players at this table might cause the scum team to self-select for moderate skill or replace out.

Your slot is consistent with a moderately skilled scum and Auto's isn't, so I'm thinking Auto is more likely to be a townie who just happens to be getting pushed for their play.

You can always argue that the replacement slots are more likely to flip scum because the scum got intimidated by the town core and left and that could be correct. I'm assuming some competency on the part of both scum team and town when suspecting you and Tacky.

Why do you keep cutting off the rest of 392? My "fair enough" is in response to Progo insisting I answer fwog's questions. All of 392 is in response to 379.