Large Normal 238 | Mafia Thread

[Datisi]

if you wanna keep the informed claim, the information i've seen given to informed townies (who weren't any other role) is... XYZ is aligned with the town, there is a mafia 1-shot strongman in the game, there is a mafia neighbour in the game (in a game where all 3 scum were neighbours).

maybe don't claim the last one

[Frogsterking]

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... &start=425

I'm reading the link, it's a large normal with a killer in it.

[Datisi]

dunno how much use a 10 year old game will be for setup meta

[Frogsterking]

The game brought to my attention that rolling Killer might tend to make players appear to suck more relative to how they usually play

[Frogsterking]

I think killer is likely to be in the mid to bottom half of the poe relative to the table and their performance is likely to appear mediocre or inferior relative to both their completed town meta and completed scum meta.

I think a really small amount of players are able to have success with killer outside of incredible luck. I think high trait conscientious, low trait agreeableness, low trait neuroticism, and at least a dozen 15+ player forum mafia games completed are increasingly predictive of the killer's identity the farther the game progresses.

I think the ability to night kill may load on its own factor of tells which can be extracted out of pr/scum tells. What i mean by that is that there are ways to "guess the vig" that are subsumed by "guess who is pr". The tells unique to "guess the vig" and not "guess the pr" can increase our chances of guessing killer. These are also practical to know if they exist because we could be looking for a vig instead of or in addition to a killer.


*Data on replacement rate of Killer
*We know being informed of a psychologist increases chance of vig OR killer, and does the presence of one of those roles increase our chances of having the other role in the setup?
*Does presence of killer/vig predict chances of having town doctor or similar mitigative role?

[Frogsterking]

https://www.researchgate.net/publicatio ... _Detection

I can probably answer all of my * questions with access to this dataset or one like it

[Eyes without a face]

Hmmm.. what am I confirming if my role pm is already posted here?? lol

If it were up to me I would have swapped my role with any of my fellow mafia members. I don't think I survive for four complete cycles.

[Datisi]

claiming gunsmith is likely to buy you a day or two if needed, i think. and i think it's unlikely there are town gunsmiths in the setup.

[Eyes without a face]

judging by the fact that there's a town psychologist, there's probably a vigilante, no? that's either great or horrible depending on who it is

My first guess was there's a serial killer. I also think we should all perform kills to avoid being caught by the psychologist

[Eyes without a face]

He wanta to work with me, apparently. So there's only like 11 people the traitor can be

Sorry but who is "he"

[Datisi]

hmm. 17p's are generally a 4v13, so if no sk, this is a 4+t vs 14, which like, can be balanced with a somewhat decent amount of town power. so i'd say it's not *likely* there's an sk, but it wouldn't surprise me i guess.

[Eyes without a face]

claiming gunsmith is likely to buy you a day or two if needed, i think. and i think it's unlikely there are town gunsmiths in the setup.

OK. Noted

[Datisi]

i was on a walk, and i thought how it would be really funny if on d2, i claimed pt cop with a guilty on baltar

it would be 99.9% be throwing, but like, funny

[Frogsterking]

i was on a walk, and i thought how it would be really funny if on d2, i claimed pt cop with a guilty on baltar

it would be 99.9% be throwing, but like, funny

it would be throwing if you did it. it would be a good strategic play if :
1) skitter confirms via hood: baltar is a powerful tpr and if a doc has a soft claim or hard claim to him at all
2) vp isnt widely townread d1
3) i emulate my limited available town meta d1 and am widely townread d1

then I think our default expectation should be that i will make this play.

As everyone's teammate here I hard claim intent to make this play D2 if the conditions for it be useful are met.

[Datisi]

errr, that was a shitpost, none of us should be claiming a powerful role like that unless our alternative is death

[Frogsterking]

errr, that was a shitpost, none of us should be claiming a powerful role like that unless our alternative is death

even with a scum team of 5 as the lowliest goon?

[the worst]

Quackup mod egopost.

[Frogsterking]

Hardclaiming intent to survive as long as possible by imitating my town meta and claim pt cop with guilty on baltar in a worst case situation.

[Datisi]

i am telling you that nothing good comes from fake claiming a power role like that because it basically locks in our death in the next 0-2 days, depending how smart the town is

which is like, unless our other option is instant death, is a bad thing

[Frogsterking]

i am telling you that nothing good comes from fake claiming a power role like that because it basically locks in our death in the next 0-2 days, depending how smart the town is

which is like, unless our other option is instant death, is a bad thing

Yes and I didn't understand what you're saying at first. After I thought it about it I understood better and I made a new plan which doesn't involve fake claiming at all unless the only other option is instant death.

[Frogsterking]

Does anyone know for sure why there's been a delay in the start of the game?

[Datisi]

I made a new plan which doesn't involve fake claiming at all unless the only other option is instant death.

also you shouldn't claim pt cop with a guilty on him even then, because when you flip, you basically confirm that there is scum in the neighborhood

no idea why the game is delayed

[Frogsterking]

I made a new plan which doesn't involve fake claiming at all unless the only other option is instant death.

also you shouldn't claim pt cop with a guilty on him even then, because when you flip, you basically confirm that there is scum in the neighborhood

no idea why the game is delayed

I think there is an important reason why the game is being delayed

[Frogsterking]

I believe the most likely explanation for the delay in order from most probable to least probable:

#1 The event has been delayed because someone very important hasn't shown up yet
#2 There is something mechanically wrong with the setup which has been noticed at the last minute
#3 Mizzy is applying artistic liberty and making a last minute change to the setup; and/or has decided to deviate from their previously intended plan and is now improvising something
#4 The delay is intentional for an unknown reason

[Frogsterking]

Do you see what I'm implying in #48??