CONTROL - GAME OVER!

[The Three Bears]

Not going to lie, i kind of regret not doing this reread yesterday. the associatives with andante pretty much clear her.
while andante was absolutely scummy, these associatives are very much clearing her.

[The Three Bears]

Malal would say tictac/mastina is the team here. just a thought.

i know this is wifom, but that's why i wouldn't have killed her if i were scum.

shrug i dont take arguments like this because scum me has slipped by off arguments like this too often.

[Cephrir]

Not going to lie, i kind of regret not doing this reread yesterday. the associatives with andante pretty much clear her.
while andante was absolutely scummy, these associatives are very much clearing her.

i feel like i tried to tell you this ;~;

[Cephrir]

could i really have unlost this game if i had towncased her more thoroughly

idk i don't think you were ready to hear it if it was coming from me

[The Three Bears]

new prfpc!

i would have needed to reread yesterday. nothing works but a change of heart from me.

[The Three Bears]

"I do believe" is a phrase that sticks out to me. im going to meta you for that specifically

[The Three Bears]

Pinkie here, we have a saying where I'm from, "It comes in 3's" - and ye gods it certainly fucking did...

Fact: there cannot be 5 scum, we are proven to have only 4.

potential kingmaker is my response to that.

However, we know that it was indicated in a TMI as a scum ability;

Where?

Bears is town for so many reasons that every time I try to list the reasons Bears is town, I miss something because it's too damn hard to remember that many reasons.

We just that good.

ok. both scum in (ceph, norw, mastina)
scum-mastina voting there is probs cause me scumreading her is better than me focusing on (ceph,norw) so probs more vulnerable of those is her partner.
i wanna say town mastina waits a bit more before voting to see the effect of the 2 votes first.
@ mastina it's meaningless to say mold is malevolent if u can't give an example of

how

in practice it could be malevolent.

I would imagine the wincon as a M3P being "infect all living players"

Idk what the point of a reeval is really. Everyone here knows you are never going to get past whatever your issue with me is.

Bwtween me and you, personality clash, it happens. We're playing a game here and we want to try and salvage any win chance.

k i give up

tet's line implies that he investigated the bears. this much is obvious. if you cannot follow me this far then like, fuck off.

so, why did tet post that "you'll know why" the bears should be side eyed when we see his flip. and yes, i know he addressed this to mush, but i believe that's just because they were hardtowning each other and he trusted it.

OBVIOUSLY, it's because THERE IS SOMETHING SUSPICIOUS ABOUT THEIR FLAVOR. otherwise, he wouldn't have said this.

therefore, if they CLAIM FLAVOR THAT ISN'T SUSPICIOUS, they are probably scum.

thanks for completely not fucking helping @ literally everyone.

If Tet investigated us, they got Dylan Faden who to me is a scummy claim. Compared to the other claims we've had which would have shown up, you can see why I was a pain around that.


-Pinkie

[Cephrir]

If Tet investigated us, they got Dylan Faden who to me is a scummy claim. Compared to the other claims we've had which would have shown up, you can see why I was a pain around that.

I thought that might be the reason you were resisting at some point which was all the more frustrating bc that was actually the town response.

[The Three Bears]

im really brainfried rn. gonna take a break and come back and summarize from the posts i've written and then maybe continue reading idk. we'll see. im burned out as fuck.

[The Three Bears]

page 168. gonna do some other stuff and then maybe be back maybe not

[The Three Bears]

no actually im not doing any more today. im too burned out and i care about my poor brain.
ok i'll be back tomorrow.

[mastina]

when was the "dead thread slip" anyways? perchance the night after mastina claimed molded?

Impossible to tell for sure. However,

I talk with dead people. For example, you know that Tet was blocked N2. I know he was blocked N3 as well. I don't know of a clever way to do it, but I've been chasing things like mail and mold today because Tet mentioned them.

No, I tried LLD but she didn't respond. Tet thought STD sent him mail, and STD confirmed that. He also believed mold was a scum ability of some sort, but I haven't gotten too far with that.

Anyway, I have some news. I got a phone call from the afterlife, specified as "Contact From the Beyond".

apparently scum might've TMI'd a bit

in the dead chat.

Dunn also hinted that the Mold actually is a scum ability

.

Mold got TMI'd as a scum ability according to dead chat.

^This seems to suggest it's unlikely.

Mold could be an arsonist like action, able to kill everyone.

i which case nothing we do today will matter. game would be called already.

Norwee isn't infected and there are two scum. If everyone needs to be infected, and we eliminate the mold today, threat neutralized before it could take effect.

This is also true if, like an arsonist, everyone needs to be infected/doused

before

you hit the 'ignite' button--which would mean even after Norwee was infected, we'd still have a final day phase tomorrow since it would take an extra night phase to hit the 'ignite' switch.

and even this assumes i gamethrew for lols and didn't immolate last night.

Arsonists can't ignite while everyone is not doused. If there were an arsonist who could kill everyone doused without needing to douse everyone? Sure, yes, the game would have ended--so

that version

of arsonist is impossible.

That version, which is a variation and an uncommon one at that, rather than the normal/default version.

And the normal/default version is very much still possible.

so yea. after eliminating the impossible. "no yeet" is the best answer even if "mold is supes weak" is improbable.

Mold being 3p that ends the game is in no way shape or form made impossible by you saying "this isn't the case".

And I very much did not say that mold was unlikely to be a 3p that ends the game--if the mold is 3p, then that would in fact be precisely what the mold

is

. I said the mold could not be benevolent 3p. You are attempting to combine the two, when they are very much separate. The mold cannot be benevolent 3p. The mold very much can be malevolent 3p that ends the game in a solo win.

That, plus the above reasons for why it can still be a dangerous scum action, mean: no, no limming is not a good idea; it is never a good idea.

[mastina]

Oops botched quotes, lemme fix that:

when was the "dead thread slip" anyways? perchance the night after mastina claimed molded?

Impossible to tell for sure. However,

I talk with dead people. For example, you know that Tet was blocked N2. I know he was blocked N3 as well. I don't know of a clever way to do it, but I've been chasing things like mail and mold today because Tet mentioned them.

No, I tried LLD but she didn't respond. Tet thought STD sent him mail, and STD confirmed that. He also believed mold was a scum ability of some sort, but I haven't gotten too far with that.

Anyway, I have some news. I got a phone call from the afterlife, specified as "Contact From the Beyond".

apparently scum might've TMI'd a bit

in the dead chat.

Dunn also hinted that the Mold actually is a scum ability

.

Mold got TMI'd as a scum ability according to dead chat.

^This seems to suggest it's unlikely.

Mold could be an arsonist like action, able to kill everyone.

i which case nothing we do today will matter. game would be called already.

Norwee isn't infected and there are two scum. If everyone needs to be infected, and we eliminate the mold today, threat neutralized before it could take effect.

This is also true if, like an arsonist, everyone needs to be infected/doused

before

you hit the 'ignite' button--which would mean even after Norwee was infected, we'd still have a final day phase tomorrow since it would take an extra night phase to hit the 'ignite' switch.

and even this assumes i gamethrew for lols and didn't immolate last night.

Arsonists can't ignite while everyone is not doused. If there were an arsonist who could kill everyone doused without needing to douse everyone? Sure, yes, the game would have ended--so

that version

of arsonist is impossible.

That version, which is a variation and an uncommon one at that, rather than the normal/default version.

And the normal/default version is very much still possible.

so yea. after eliminating the impossible. "no yeet" is the best answer even if "mold is supes weak" is improbable.

Mold being 3p that ends the game is in no way shape or form made impossible by you saying "this isn't the case".

And I very much did not say that mold was unlikely to be a 3p that ends the game--if the mold is 3p, then that would in fact be precisely what the mold

is

. I said the mold could not be benevolent 3p. You are attempting to combine the two, when they are very much separate. The mold cannot be benevolent 3p. The mold very much can be malevolent 3p that ends the game in a solo win.

That, plus the above reasons for why it can still be a dangerous scum action, mean: no, no limming is not a good idea; it is never a good idea.

[mastina]

Also hasn’t Mastina explained that they don’t really buss as scum?

Yeah, I literally wrote an article on it, and have a recent track record (look at where Suripoko and Rogue are in my readslist and what I did on D2 with Suripoko) to prove that it still applies.

Bussing doesn't give enough town credit to be worth the loss in a member; bussing gives the town a free elimination on scum; bussing can ironically be seen as TMI because town players are more likely to fuck up than scum players so having good reads can be seen as TMI. So bussing is basically never worth it. You're putting the town's spotlight/focus onto a scumbuddy and increasing the odds the town is going to go to the right place, all for what? Towncred that the town doesn't actually give? Because the town expects bussing, because town players are so used to bussing, there's no benefit to bussing.

mastina can you explain how cakez locking the thread conftowned LLD and us

Well, basically: it was direct moderator influence on the game. It was the mod playing along with a fake-vig. That meant that the mod was using their moderator-given knowledge of the game to know the alignments/roles of both participants, and decided to have some personal fun.

That moderator interference doesn't happen if LLD/Bears contains scum.

That, aside from how the interaction hard-spewed both participants as town. SirCakez locking the thread strengthened this. If SirCakez had not locked the thread, then the reactions would have been seen as possibly just reactions. SirCakez locking the thread gave a moderator-approved seal of authenticity of, "yes, these interactions were real, not fake", which hard-spewed you and LLD as town.

Basically, the mod trolling as he called it, revealed moderator info he had access to but which we did not (altho we could infer, from both you and LLD being obvtown anyway). He knew that there would be reactions to be had from his trolling--those reactions would not exist if there were scum in you; he would only know there was something to be gained from trolling if he knew that the participants were town.

It legitimized your reaction to the dayvig and it legitimized the fake-dayvig. It gave us moderator-provided info for free, because SirCakez has knowledge we don't and his actions are painted by that.

There might've been more, even stronger, reasons than that, but I've forgotten them. (I feel like I am missing something really big about just how clearing the modlock was. Like, really big, "this is literally what makes them conftown", big, and the above are lackluster compared to it. But I can't for the life of me remember it, so the above will have to suffice instead.)

if you are town,
the only possible teams are [roden, mastina, cephrir] + tictac
or mastina + cephrir.
rank the four choices in terms of how likely they are

Cephrir + tictac > Roden + tictac >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> x infinity Norwee + tictac/Cephrir (because Norwee is never scum here)

Basically, there's zero universes in which tictac is town here, because Norwee is always town here and if either of you/Roden were scum with a non-tictac name, you'd have hammered by now.

[mastina]

Mastina SRs galron and toog. so she doesnt have PERFECT reads.

Actually, my Galron read fluctuated between town and scum in both this game and uPick Normal--
I could tell Galron was playing identically in both, and he even posted about Ircher (from this game) in uPick Normal, telling me he was the same alignment in both.

The problem was, I didn't know

which

alignment that was until uPick Normal ended, revealing he was town.

I went from Galron town both games to Galron scum both games to Galron town both games to Galron scum both games to Galron town both games, and it was off of his posting in both games. When he looked town in one game, it affected my read on him in both games; when he started to look scum in one game, it affected my read on him in both games. Which will show if you iso me in both games. (Btw that should also tell you that I am town here because if I was scum in this game while knowing Galron was sharing an alignment in both games, I'd have locktowned Galron in uPick Normal. As in lock LOCKtowned him. Instead, the read was far more fluid, fluctuating with my doubt. Because I didn't know his alignment here, I didn't know his alignment there.)

all we have to do is find the town in that group and we win.

That would be me. I can give a plethora of reasons for why if you'd prefer, since I'm well out of my scum meta and even disregarding meta there's half a dozen reasons for me to be town in

this

game that aren't meta-related.

the point is to not be paranoid of everyone in the game.

Just be like me and whenever you get paranoid, say "nah fuck that" and double down on your reads! Reverse the paranoia and turn it into absolute conviction that no, you are not wrong.

Works pretty damn well for me.

Malal would say tictac/mastina is the team here. just a thought.

And then she would vote tictac because she also had suspicion on Roden--since a Roden/mastina team is impossible, but theoretically Roden-tictac and mastina-tictac are both possible, she'd vote tictac because tictac would be scum no matter what.

[mastina]

However, we know that it was indicated in a TMI as a scum ability;

Where?

5150 among others. And we know we can trust Roden here--

If Roden were lying about that, then Galron would've said so in the message to me.

That, aside from the fact that the only world where Roden would be scum is Roden + tictac since in any other world, Roden hammers tictac.

Plus, Roden's almost certainly town anyways, so.

The information is reliable.

[tictac]

I would imagine the wincon as a M3P being "infect all living players"

in which case a noyeet would still be the best action here because nk+yeet > yeet, and scum doesn't want to lose to mold3p either.

[tictac]

I would imagine the wincon as a M3P being "infect all living players"

in which case a noyeet would still be the best action here because nk+yeet > yeet, and scum doesn't want to lose to mold3p either.

ok. unless i'm the mold, which is like really? and if i was yeeting me would still be a town loss.

[The Three Bears]

Knew the Galron wagon felt off. Problem is that Tictac might've been lined up to be the next mis-elim. Which means we have way more deep wolves than I thought and that a bunch of my reads have to be wrong.

Anyway, I have some news. I got a phone call from the afterlife, specified as "Contact From the Beyond". Kinda surprised I was chosen but

apparently

scum might've TMI'd a bit in the dead chat.

Gonna try to paraphrase as best as I can.

First, Tet says that they still don't think STD is scum even after the claim. They don't think it makes sense to RB them and send them a letter, then confirm the presence of a Roleblocker instead of just targeting the town JK or something comparable. Only way that works is if the abilities are tied. They also believe Toog has to get elim'd next, he isn't providing any meaningful input and Tet sees it as scum indicative.

Dunn also hinted that the Mold actually is a scum ability.

Bell says not to immediately go after Tictac because the vibes are bad. We need to explore everything more.

That's all I got. I pretty much agree with everything that was sent to me.

This is nothing concrete. This is speculation from a dead red who is smart enough to know that they win over a neutral 3p.

-Pinkie

[The Three Bears]

I cannot see a town win currently, and ngl I'm thinking this is Kingmaker. Problem is odds are in maf favour at the moment.

-Pinkie.

[NorwegianboyEE]

Well if it is then that's pretty shitty, but no point giving up just because there's a possibility it is.

[mastina]

Knew the Galron wagon felt off. Problem is that Tictac might've been lined up to be the next mis-elim. Which means we have way more deep wolves than I thought and that a bunch of my reads have to be wrong.

Anyway, I have some news. I got a phone call from the afterlife, specified as "Contact From the Beyond". Kinda surprised I was chosen but

apparently

scum might've TMI'd a bit in the dead chat.

Gonna try to paraphrase as best as I can.

First, Tet says that they still don't think STD is scum even after the claim. They don't think it makes sense to RB them and send them a letter, then confirm the presence of a Roleblocker instead of just targeting the town JK or something comparable. Only way that works is if the abilities are tied. They also believe Toog has to get elim'd next, he isn't providing any meaningful input and Tet sees it as scum indicative.

Dunn also hinted that the Mold actually is a scum ability.

Bell says not to immediately go after Tictac because the vibes are bad. We need to explore everything more.

That's all I got. I pretty much agree with everything that was sent to me.

This is nothing concrete. This is speculation from a dead red who is smart enough to know that they win over a neutral 3p.

-Pinkie

I can address this later, but actually, Flea, I just had a breakthrough realization thanks to your posts:

Unless the 3p is an arsonist who needs to ignite during a night phase, there CANNOT be a 3p in this game at all.

Why?

Well:
-There are precisely two players who have not claimed infected. These are Norwee and Tictac.
-There are six players alive. Six, not five.
-There is, presumably, two groupscum alive.
-tictac is at L-1.

What happens when you combine all these points together?

You might be able to figure it out on your own, but if not, I'll explain when I can.

Basically, the above four points mean that it's literally impossible for today to be a kingmaker. There MUST be two scum, and ONLY two scum. (That, or the scumteam is only 3 members strong, which would still mean no kingmaker today.)

[The Three Bears]

i think all of this arsonist talk is dumb. liek if theres an arsonist, they should've blown people up a lot earlier. Also, it does not seem like a balanced setup in litearlly any way if mold can kill. That is way too many extra kills. I guess I see a possibility of like every other night or something but full on flag a target a night and blow them all up one night is just impossible imo.

im busy as fuck today. way too much homework. tutoring session and friends coming over. i cant do this today.

[tictac]

this proof gonna assume mastina-town again, i'm guessing, but cool.
we can do the noyeet then?

[NorwegianboyEE]

Stop trying to make no yeet happen, it’s not gonna happen.