Newbie 2089 | Endgame

[Frogsterking]

Why would you think they were masons?

Because Progo looked like they were softing it with how hard they were chainsawing for fwog yesterday.

[NorwegianboyEE]

Consider that there's an 7/9 chance of there not being masons in this setup. (Except scum would narrow it down more by knowing if it's setup A B or C)

[Frogsterking]

KittyTacky: His #86 post about how he don't think I sliped comes pretty late. By then, 3 other players already said they didn't think it was a slip, so this could be read as Mafia waiting to see how the town would react to the "slip" before making a move. However, KittyTacky's earlier #75 post clears him, in my opnion. There, he doubts Frogsterking reasoning to suspect me. After that, I can believe his reasons for his reads, so I think he is town.

I observed the same things and I think it makes Kitty more likely to flip scum than town.

Fair enough: @379

So... You don't have a problem with #379 after all?

If you town read fwog for some reason just tell me. I will push Kitty instead.

Around this time I thought Progo was softing to me

[Frogsterking]

I don't know Norwee this game is kind of hard.

[Frogsterking]

I think scum will win if we miss today I suggest unvoting fwog unless you're confident.

[NorwegianboyEE]

I have some reasons for wanting to lim Fwog but i don't know if they are good reasons, and game would be in a pretty bad state if it flips town.

[NorwegianboyEE]

I feel like you (Frog) is town, Mercia is town. Progo i got a townlean on.
Leaving Fwog/Kitty/Strange

[Frogsterking]

I feel like Strange is sort of open wolfing at this point?

[NorwegianboyEE]

How possible is Fwog/Strange for the team?

[NorwegianboyEE]

I feel like both scum in my PoE but i really don't want to kill the town in those 3 today.

[NorwegianboyEE]

I think limming Fwog might be the best from optimal perspective because i feel like he is scummy and he did claim VT so there's no chance of outing a town PR by wagoning someone else today.
But i'd also wanna wait for more content from Strange/Kitty before committing.
So ghost vote on Fwog but i'm gonna stand by for a bit more.

[Frogsterking]

The other game in which you were town?

I meant my last newbie game.

I'm about to deathtunnel you so if you've had any strong scumreads you've been holding back I suggest you case them now.

literally the most antitown thing you could do

Vanilla townie. Have a good day.

And my leans remain same. I could've made 10 more posts reiterating them again and again, but oh well.

Here, Auto is showing acceptance of their own elimination while in E-1. This is a town tell, and I don't think newbie scum would be able to fake that. I'm townreading Auto right now.

There's a few hours left in the deadline. Can we still eliminate someone else?

UNVOTE: Frogsterking
VOTE: fwogcarf

I agree with ofmercia. I'm willing to eliminate fwog today.

StrangeMatter

seems like i can't dig myself out of this one

good luck everyone

claiming Vanilla Town

It seems in line for Progo to unvote now.

[Frogsterking]

I think limming Fwog might be the best from optimal perspective because i feel like he is scummy and he did claim VT so there's no chance of outing a town PR by wagoning someone else today.
But i'd also wanna wait for more content from Strange/Kitty before committing.
So ghost vote on Fwog but i'm gonna stand by for a bit more.

Does he not claim pr tho?

[Frogsterking]

Does Strange/Kitty or Strange/Fwog make more sense?

[Frogsterking]

We should prob switch to Kitty IMO

[Frogsterking]

I think limming Fwog might be the best from optimal perspective because i feel like he is scummy and he did claim VT so there's no chance of outing a town PR by wagoning someone else today.
But i'd also wanna wait for more content from Strange/Kitty before committing.
So ghost vote on Fwog but i'm gonna stand by for a bit more.

We can always mass claim today and go for a solve i guess. Might be higher winrate.

[Frogsterking]

Nevermind, nevermind my last post!

[NorwegianboyEE]

I think limming Fwog might be the best from optimal perspective because i feel like he is scummy and he did claim VT so there's no chance of outing a town PR by wagoning someone else today.
But i'd also wanna wait for more content from Strange/Kitty before committing.
So ghost vote on Fwog but i'm gonna stand by for a bit more.

Does he not claim pr tho?

This is pretty much WIFOM at it's finest.
You can say he claims VT because that is what you don't expect scum to do, hence wrongly townread scum. Or he is genuinely town that is just VT.
Can you tell the difference? If not then this is an bad argument to switch off imo.

[ProgoWoshua]

[...]

It seems in line for Progo to unvote now.

After I townread Auto for not defending himself at E-1, it became a valid strategy for scum too.

My PoE at this moment is Frog, fwog and Strange. I too want to hear more from Strange, but with the way things are right now, I want to eliminate either Frog or fwog.

[ofmercia]

Fwog is my vote today. Kitty/frog as last.

[Frogsterking]

Hmm what to do what to do

[Frogsterking]

I think limming Fwog might be the best from optimal perspective because i feel like he is scummy and he did claim VT so there's no chance of outing a town PR by wagoning someone else today.
But i'd also wanna wait for more content from Strange/Kitty before committing.
So ghost vote on Fwog but i'm gonna stand by for a bit more.

Does he not claim pr tho?

This is pretty much WIFOM at it's finest.
You can say he claims VT because that is what you don't expect scum to do, hence wrongly townread scum. Or he is genuinely town that is just VT.
Can you tell the difference? If not then this is an bad argument to switch off imo.

[...]

It seems in line for Progo to unvote now.

After I townread Auto for not defending himself at E-1, it became a valid strategy for scum too.

My PoE at this moment is Frog, fwog and Strange. I too want to hear more from Strange, but with the way things are right now, I want to eliminate either Frog or fwog.

This would explain why fwog's reaction to being accused was so different between D1 and D2.

StrangeMatter

seems like i can't dig myself out of this one

good luck everyone

StrangeMatter

seems like i can't dig myself out of this one

good luck everyone

cant even do the fuckin vote right lmfao

this is the most lost i've been playing a game in a long time because i was so confident on an Auto/??? world and seeing Auto flip town literally made my worldviewing crash down

Strange would be the person i would go for but it's a weak read and it's a gutread

so do with that what you will

Very wifomy and the tone is completely different from D1:

Yes what you've said is true fwog and I actually scum read enough of your reactions to be willing to double down on you now fwog. I think you have a like 50% chance to flip scum which is great expected value for town on D1.

Hm, no.

Here is the problem I have with some of your reads. First off you never answered my question when I asked how I, specifically, was scummier than Kitty. Along the way you continue to talk about the two of us in a couple of short posts that don't say anything. You've linked a couple posts describing that they had more content than the "positions" we've taken. Why is this? And then right after that you say "I don't like how Fwog/Kitty put just enough effort to get townread and are posed with their outted scumreads on town limbait". There is so much wrong with this statement. Number one, of course you put in effort, that's usually how a lot of people get townread day 1. Look at Tist with his wordy posts, look at Norwegian with the amount of posts they've made. Then you look at someone like yourself/Auto/StrangeMatter who haven't made a whole lot of posts/put a whole lot of words in them. The top posters managed to get themselves out of mostly consensus PoE for today (because I know some people don't like Tist, which is fine). Specifically the "outted scumread" part is pinging me because you're discouraging me from making a scumread on someone who you think is town. I'm allowed to have my own opinions about people in the game, and in this case, I think Auto is scum. I'll get to that in a minute

Second off, your limbait reads aren't good reads. Your explanation for Auto being town is because he "doesn't post much" and is "paranoid of a popular town read". The second reason for that is fine, but the first one isn't. How does it make sense for someone like Auto to be town in your eyes because he doesn't post much, while someone like me is, in your words "50% to flip scum", with a decent amount of posts? I get that I don't put words in my posts but that's just how I play. I'm not a wordy type of guy unless I absolutely need to be.

Third off is the post where you say "You have a 50% chance to flip scum, which is great expected value for town" itself. If you're really relying on self calculated RNG more than your own intuition and logic thinking then you need to change your game up a bit because that's not how mafia works. You and Tist can calculate all the probabilities you want but at the end of the day, the game is about deception, not probability. In that same post you say "I scumread a lot of your reactions to be willing to double down on you" Ok, what reactions pinged you? Which ones were scummier than others?

This is after I accuse fwog.

The difference between D1 and D2 fwog makes sense if one of these is true:

1) fwog is scum hoping to be townread by changing their reaction
2) fwog is scum being bussed now
3) fwog is town and more resigned to their fate

There is something else fishy, that everyone is agreeing. Usually everyone agreeing is a bad sign. It means one of:

1) fwog's partner is completely lacking presence in the game
2) fwog is scum being bussed now
3) fwog is town being mislimmed

I guess I'm leaning toward 1) being true for both. The only partner seems to be Strange for these explanations.

I guess the 2) and 3) explanations need to be revisited once fwog/Strange is ruled out.

[ofmercia]

Fwog + frog doesn't feel right to me. Fwog + kitty makes perfect sense the way day 2 unfolded.

[StrangeMatter]

Why are you so hard tunneled on me anyways? Right now though, you've started to ping me as most likely to be opportunistic around my slot whenever I read your posts. I mean first you threw out that I was trying to fake my town game off a really weird and bad scum tell, then you come back and continue to focus me as a slot that doesn't add much to the game (which from experience alone I know is easy pickings), along with constantly throwing my name around quite a bit, which to me seems like you know I would be an easy slot to vote out, and have been hoping to set up for my elimination for a while now.

[StrangeMatter]

Snip

Replying to this by the way. Snipped for space of course.