Newbie 2089 | Endgame

[fwogcarf]

Really don't think that all the wagons yesterday were pure however

[fwogcarf]

Really don't think that all the wagons yesterday were pure however

i mean the people who were wagons

[Frogsterking]

In order from most to least significant explanations of my Progo read:

1) Progo's activity levels maintaining consistency up to this point indicate continued or elevated interest in this situation of the game; a situation where at least half the Town is bickering, clueless and/or inactive and the conclusion of the day seems inevitable and unpromising. This is the type of situation where activity tells invert start to become inverted because town are becoming less motivated and scum are becoming motivated.

2) Progo's read on my slot from D1 to now is contrived and lacking in depth. I believe Progo's interpretations of my play is a response to the outted reads of the players Progo is planning to leave alive. Progo believes you and Kitty will be less likely to trust me because of my accusations and attempts to solve the game, and became more emboldened once Kitty made it clear today they would hammer me over Strange if given the choice.
I believe if players were less trusting of Norwee or Kitty for example, Progo would have outted with different reads which are convenient to that situation.

I have more reasons but I need to switch to my laptop because this is taking too long without a keyboard.

This shows me you're town, I can see the reasoning from your POV. I just disagree about your solve.

I've switched to a keyboard but I won't out my other explanations because it seems their existence is redundant.

There is an urgency for you to reconsider your solve now ofmercia because Kitty's townread of Strange will cost town the game. Once the player count drops to 5 with 2 scum it's unlikely you will win even with strong play.

[ofmercia]

In order from most to least significant explanations of my Progo read:

1) Progo's activity levels maintaining consistency up to this point indicate continued or elevated interest in this situation of the game; a situation where at least half the Town is bickering, clueless and/or inactive and the conclusion of the day seems inevitable and unpromising. This is the type of situation where activity tells invert start to become inverted because town are becoming less motivated and scum are becoming motivated.

2) Progo's read on my slot from D1 to now is contrived and lacking in depth. I believe Progo's interpretations of my play is a response to the outted reads of the players Progo is planning to leave alive. Progo believes you and Kitty will be less likely to trust me because of my accusations and attempts to solve the game, and became more emboldened once Kitty made it clear today they would hammer me over Strange if given the choice.
I believe if players were less trusting of Norwee or Kitty for example, Progo would have outted with different reads which are convenient to that situation.

I have more reasons but I need to switch to my laptop because this is taking too long without a keyboard.

This shows me you're town, I can see the reasoning from your POV. I just disagree about your solve.

I've switched to a keyboard but I won't out my other explanations because it seems their existence is redundant.

There is an urgency for you to reconsider your solve now ofmercia because Kitty's townread of Strange will cost town the game. Once the player count drops to 5 with 2 scum it's unlikely you will win even with strong play.

Yeah you understand the urgency, so why are you trying to change the wagon. Fwog is showing great valor here in this last ditch defense but he's having to resort to lies like mistaking 3 votes, with a big blue vote count, with 5 votes (a hammer btw). Is that actually believable to you?

[fwogcarf]

Also Frog's been scumreading/pushing me for the majority of today

we're not partners

[fwogcarf]

If you think it makes sense for scum to both be on me right now feel free to explain.

Because I don't think it's that way

[fwogcarf]

If you think it makes sense for scum to both be on me right now feel free to explain.

Because I don't think it's that way

[Frogsterking]

In order from most to least significant explanations of my Progo read:

1) Progo's activity levels maintaining consistency up to this point indicate continued or elevated interest in this situation of the game; a situation where at least half the Town is bickering, clueless and/or inactive and the conclusion of the day seems inevitable and unpromising. This is the type of situation where activity tells invert start to become inverted because town are becoming less motivated and scum are becoming motivated.

2) Progo's read on my slot from D1 to now is contrived and lacking in depth. I believe Progo's interpretations of my play is a response to the outted reads of the players Progo is planning to leave alive. Progo believes you and Kitty will be less likely to trust me because of my accusations and attempts to solve the game, and became more emboldened once Kitty made it clear today they would hammer me over Strange if given the choice.
I believe if players were less trusting of Norwee or Kitty for example, Progo would have outted with different reads which are convenient to that situation.

I have more reasons but I need to switch to my laptop because this is taking too long without a keyboard.

This shows me you're town, I can see the reasoning from your POV. I just disagree about your solve.

I've switched to a keyboard but I won't out my other explanations because it seems their existence is redundant.

There is an urgency for you to reconsider your solve now ofmercia because Kitty's townread of Strange will cost town the game. Once the player count drops to 5 with 2 scum it's unlikely you will win even with strong play.

Yeah you understand the urgency, so why are you trying to change the wagon. Fwog is showing great valor here in this last ditch defense but he's having to resort to lies like mistaking 3 votes, with a big blue vote count, with 5 votes (a hammer btw). Is that actually believable to you?

Yes fwog's show of valor is townie, it's very difficult to motivate yourself to convince another human of a downright lie when the group is already accusing you of lying. This is why Strange is struggling to even attempt to do anything in this game, and that's with far less pressure than fwog is experiencing.

Fwog's mistakes are NAI in my opinion, this is a game where it's easy to make mistakes. I think fwog is trying and doing the right thing. I don't see a scum agenda in the inconsistencies like fwog made with the amount of players required to make a hammer, there's no benefit to the scum team of convincing town of a lie like that.

[fwogcarf]

Oh nevermind Progo had a spiritual vote

They're town

[fwogcarf]

Norwegian voting Kitty and not switching off of them for the longest time makes me think they aren't partnered.

[Frogsterking]

In order from most to least significant explanations of my Progo read:

1) Progo's activity levels maintaining consistency up to this point indicate continued or elevated interest in this situation of the game; a situation where at least half the Town is bickering, clueless and/or inactive and the conclusion of the day seems inevitable and unpromising. This is the type of situation where activity tells invert start to become inverted because town are becoming less motivated and scum are becoming motivated.

2) Progo's read on my slot from D1 to now is contrived and lacking in depth. I believe Progo's interpretations of my play is a response to the outted reads of the players Progo is planning to leave alive. Progo believes you and Kitty will be less likely to trust me because of my accusations and attempts to solve the game, and became more emboldened once Kitty made it clear today they would hammer me over Strange if given the choice.
I believe if players were less trusting of Norwee or Kitty for example, Progo would have outted with different reads which are convenient to that situation.

I have more reasons but I need to switch to my laptop because this is taking too long without a keyboard.

This shows me you're town, I can see the reasoning from your POV. I just disagree about your solve.

I've switched to a keyboard but I won't out my other explanations because it seems their existence is redundant.

There is an urgency for you to reconsider your solve now ofmercia because Kitty's townread of Strange will cost town the game. Once the player count drops to 5 with 2 scum it's unlikely you will win even with strong play.

Yeah you understand the urgency, so why are you trying to change the wagon. Fwog is showing great valor here in this last ditch defense but he's having to resort to lies like mistaking 3 votes, with a big blue vote count, with 5 votes (a hammer btw). Is that actually believable to you?

Yes fwog's show of valor is townie, it's very difficult to motivate yourself to convince another human of a downright lie when the group is already accusing you of lying. This is why Strange is struggling to even attempt to do anything in this game, and that's with far less pressure than fwog is experiencing.

Fwog's mistakes are NAI in my opinion, this is a game where it's easy to make mistakes. I think fwog is trying and doing the right thing. I don't see a scum agenda in the inconsistencies like fwog made with the amount of players required to make a hammer, there's no benefit to the scum team of convincing town of a lie like that.

In my opinion what's happening with fwog here is that they became complacent and waited too long to solve the game. Now faced with the threat of loss fwog is motivated into action, but the time pressure and the accusations of the other players are making the solve much more difficult than if they had started much earlier in the game.

[Frogsterking]

Oh nevermind Progo had a spiritual vote

They're town

Norwegian voting Kitty and not switching off of them for the longest time makes me think they aren't partnered.

Fwog is there any way I can assist you in this moment?

[fwogcarf]

100% a scum in Kitty/Strange based off of this. I have townreads for a good amount of people that I'm comfortable with based mainly off the votecount.

Plus the fact that I don't think Norwegian, Ofmercia, or Frogster make that Tist kill.

[fwogcarf]

Oh nevermind Progo had a spiritual vote

They're town

Norwegian voting Kitty and not switching off of them for the longest time makes me think they aren't partnered.

Fwog is there any way I can assist you in this moment?

Go for it

[Frogsterking]

Also Frog's been scumreading/pushing me for the majority of today

we're not partners

Yes and your reaction to my push D1 is difficult to fake.

[Frogsterking]

Okay can you walk me through your town read of Progo?

[ofmercia]

In order from most to least significant explanations of my Progo read:

1) Progo's activity levels maintaining consistency up to this point indicate continued or elevated interest in this situation of the game; a situation where at least half the Town is bickering, clueless and/or inactive and the conclusion of the day seems inevitable and unpromising. This is the type of situation where activity tells invert start to become inverted because town are becoming less motivated and scum are becoming motivated.

2) Progo's read on my slot from D1 to now is contrived and lacking in depth. I believe Progo's interpretations of my play is a response to the outted reads of the players Progo is planning to leave alive. Progo believes you and Kitty will be less likely to trust me because of my accusations and attempts to solve the game, and became more emboldened once Kitty made it clear today they would hammer me over Strange if given the choice.
I believe if players were less trusting of Norwee or Kitty for example, Progo would have outted with different reads which are convenient to that situation.

I have more reasons but I need to switch to my laptop because this is taking too long without a keyboard.

This shows me you're town, I can see the reasoning from your POV. I just disagree about your solve.

I've switched to a keyboard but I won't out my other explanations because it seems their existence is redundant.

There is an urgency for you to reconsider your solve now ofmercia because Kitty's townread of Strange will cost town the game. Once the player count drops to 5 with 2 scum it's unlikely you will win even with strong play.

Yeah you understand the urgency, so why are you trying to change the wagon. Fwog is showing great valor here in this last ditch defense but he's having to resort to lies like mistaking 3 votes, with a big blue vote count, with 5 votes (a hammer btw). Is that actually believable to you?

Yes fwog's show of valor is townie, it's very difficult to motivate yourself to convince another human of a downright lie when the group is already accusing you of lying. This is why Strange is struggling to even attempt to do anything in this game, and that's with far less pressure than fwog is experiencing.

Fwog's mistakes are NAI in my opinion, this is a game where it's easy to make mistakes. I think fwog is trying and doing the right thing. I don't see a scum agenda in the inconsistencies like fwog made with the amount of players required to make a hammer, there's no benefit to the scum team of convincing town of a lie like that.

This wasn't his initial reaction though. Go read his initial reaction and how it developed to this and the scum agenda becomes clear. The wagon reads as savable to me and scum do not want to lose 1 here, he has to try and save it. Maybe you advised him in the scum thread? Then in this defense it's not just "mistakes", it's unbelievable mistakes. 3 votes instead of 5 isn't believable to me. In the astronomically rare chance he did make a mistake I apologise but claiming he thought it was 5 votes seems like a cover to change a stance on something he posted.

[ofmercia]

Also Frog's been scumreading/pushing me for the majority of today

we're not partners

You posted that you town read him. Shouldn't that be enough? What does you're not partners have to do with anything? Are you claiming to be a different alignment to him? But you town read him, that means you're...?

[ofmercia]

In what world does a town player post "we're not partners"?

[ofmercia]

That's textbook definition of what they call a scum slip.

[fwogcarf]

Okay can you walk me through your town read of Progo?

Sure

Spoiler:

Here's the game summary that I created to help me with my reads:

#1-#61 was mostly RVS ans setup discussion (which I view as NAI), except for:

• #18 - NorwegianboyEE's Town-"Newbiereads" TistDaniel, for being a newbie asking about PR play.
  #56 - TistDaniel's votes fwogcarf, for... "discouraging other people from learning how to play town roles better"?

#62 was my "slip". #62-#87 was mostly people reacting to it.

• #66 - ofmercia asks Dunnstral's opinion on it.
  #67 - Dunnstral assumes it was a joke.
  #72 - Frogsterking's votes me over it. Frogsterking's obvtown-reads TistDaniel.
  #73 - NorwegianboyEE questions Frogsterking on "consciousness of guilt slip".
  #75 - KittyTacky questions Frogsterking on "consciousness of guilt slip".
  #79 - fwogcarf, quoting #72, dismisses the idea.
  #83 - NorwegianboyEE finds it NAI.
  #86 - KittyTacky doesn't think it's a slip.
  #87 - ofmercia scumreads me because of it, and scumreads NorwegianboyEE for defending me.

#88 is where I explain my mistake, and everyone believes it. Now, everyone is discusing everyone else's previous reaction to the "slip".

• #90 - In response to ofmercia, NorwegianboyEE defends how my mistake didn't make sense as a slip.
  #93 #94 #96 - NorwegianboyEE votes ofmercia, claiming their reason for suspect both of us doesn't make sense. ofmercia explains their reasoning, and NorwegianboyEE unvotes.
  #99 - KittyTacky suspects Frogsterking and ofmercia for possibly jumping on an early wagon, also claiming their reasoning doesn't make sense.
  #102 - I don't scumread Frogsterking and ofmercia based on their reactions to the "slip".
  #103 - ofmercia insists that their previous reaction makes sense.
  #104 - Frogsterking unvotes me.
  #106 - NorwegianboyEE don't think Frogsterking and ofmercia are partners, due to their very different reactions.
  #108 - Frogsterking thinks I'm town based on #102.
  #116 - TistDaniel votes ofmercia, for trying to incide a wagon without actually voting for me.
  #137 - Dunnstral townreads TistDaniel.
  #148 - TistDaniel's wall of text. Most of it is about people responding to his strategy. There's a paragraph about ofmercia's post-"slip" reactions. Townleans NorwegianboyEE and scumleans fwogcarf for their responses to his strategy. Scumleans on ofmercia a little harder for pushing a wagon on me without talking to me at all.
  #158 - ofmercia defends their reasoning for geting imput from Dunnstral before pushing a wagon on me. But doesn't scumread TistDaniel for acusing them.
  #170 - NorwegianboyEE votes Frogsterking for being oportunistic about my slip.
  #173 - ofmercia claims that they've believe that scum had sliped, but was hoping that wasn't the case.
  #174 - NorwegianboyEE townreads ofmercia based on #173.
  #177 - Prompted by TistDaniel, fwogcarf states his townreading of NorwegianboyEE.
  #179 - Frogsterking townreads me and TistDaniel. Has a null read on ofmercia.
  #184 - Frogsterking votes KittyTacky after reading his ISO. Scumreads Dunnstral by PoE.
  #185 - KittyTacky townreads TistDaniel and NorwegianboyEE.
  #190 - Prompted by Frogsterking, KittyTacky states a slight townlean on AutoDefenestrator and a null read on Dunnstral.
  #195 - AutoDefenestrator is neutral on TistDaniel and NorwegianboyEE, and townleans Frogsterking.
  #198 - ofmercia changes their read on TistDaniel to scum, and votes for him, based on #148.

My thoughts about everyone:

AutoDefenestrator: It's the least active player overall. He only has one post that I deem relevant for scumhunting porpuses (#195), where he claims to be neutral on TistDaniel and NorwegianboyEE, and townleans Frogsterking. It's also worth noting that he's still keeping his vote on NorwegianboyEE since the RVS. I'm inclined to say I scumlean him, but it's also possible that he's just a newbie learning to play the game, so I'll grant him a null read.

Dunnstral: Once I made my "slip", It's possible for Mafia to not push a wagon immediatly, and instead wait to see if the Town would push a wagon first. However, ofmercia asked Dunnstral about his opnion on my "slip", and he responded that he didn't think it was a slip. I think that, if he is mafia, he would express suspicion or doubt once asked, to leave the door open and push a wagon later. He didn't do that, so I think he is town.

Frogsterking: I doubt Frogsterking and ofmercia are partners. Not only because of their reactions after #88, but also because having both scum to push the same mislim on Day 1 is really risky, and I don't think they would do that. I believe ofmercia is scummier than Frogsterking, so Frogsterking gets a townlean by default.

fwogcarf: He's been one of the most active players, but he posted mostly about things I deem irrelevant for scumhunting porpuses (mostly discusing TistDaniel's strategy). He only has two relevant posts: #177, where he townreads NorwegianboyEE, and #79, which is the important one in my opnion. Again, it's possible for Mafia to not immediatly push a wagon on me after my "slip", but fwogcarf went out of his way to disagree about it being a slip completely umprompted. In my opnion, he's townier than Dunnstral.

KittyTacky: His #86 post about how he don't think I sliped comes pretty late. By then, 3 other players already said they didn't think it was a slip, so this could be read as Mafia waiting to see how the town would react to the "slip" before making a move. However, KittyTacky's earlier #75 post clears him, in my opnion. There, he doubts Frogsterking reasoning to suspect me. After that, I can believe his reasons for his reads, so I think he is town.

NorwegianboyEE: I think he's town for the exact same reason as KittyTacky. At first, he question Frogsterking's reasoning, and then states that he doesn't think I sliped. I can't find a problem with his reasons for his reads, so I think he's town.

ofmercia: In my opnion #66, #67, #72 and #87 tell a story. At first, ofmercia tries to get Dunnstral to push a wagon on me. Dunnstral doesn't do that, but Frogsterking does. Seeing the opportunity, tries to give the wagon momentum without actually geting on the wagon themselves. This looks pretty scummy to me.

TistDaniel: Before I talk about him, I want to ask him something:

A lot of people have been saying that discussing town strategy is not alignment indicative, but I'm also the most town-read player (18, 59, 60, 72, 128, 137) when most of what I've done in this game is discuss town strategy.

Is (18, 59, 60, 72, 128, 137) supposed to be a list of posts where people townread you?

(18, 72, 137) sure, but NorwegianboyEE's #59 and #60 have nothing to do with you, and #128 is from the actual mod. Explain to me how you got that wrong.

This is the first post that makes me feel good about him. I like how he steps it up in terms of his activity with this post which not only summarizes the game in a way which he understands it but also provides his conclusion off of it as well, hence the reads he has. I also like how he tries to start conversation with Tist about an issue that would help him determine what alignment his slot stands at.

Fair enough: @379

So... You don't have a problem with #379 after all?

This post and the next couple he makes after that are good to me because he brings up a point about your push on me D1 being fabricated. He does re-eval on that as well after he understands what you meant with your response, which I think a scum member would try to continue pushing that slot rather than immediately retract their read on you.

Not Voting (2) - StrangeMatter, ProgoWoshua

You two gonna vote? What's your preferences today?

It's clear that today's elimination will be one of ofmercia, Auto and Kitty.

Out of those, I'm more suspicious of Auto.

I was just going to vote them, but they are in E-1 now. Now's your chance to claim your role, Auto.

I feel like scum!Progo would've immediately hammered instead of making this post.

Spoiler:

Ok, I just started a full game analysis that will most certainly NOT be finished today. So for now I'll just spew out what I think. Note that these reads are based of my memory, so take them with a grain of salt:

Town Reads

• NorwegianboyEE: I was worried about him when he wasn't killed in Night 1, but Daniel's death makes sense in hindsight. Other than that, he's been helping town since the beginning, so I can't imagine him as Mafia.
  
  KittyTacky: It makes sense he would hammer Auto as Mafia, but it makes just as much sense he would hammer Auto as Town. He was tunneling Auto for a while, and probably suffered from confirmation bias. I still townread him from earlier in Day 1.
  
  ofmercia: Started of scummy, but got townier later. I completely get their reasoning for outing the PRs Today. In fact, I would probably came up with these sort of strategies myself (tho I would probably listen to the voice of experience).

Null Reads

• StrangeMatter: I don't remember her.

Scum Reads

• fwogcarf: I agree with ofmercia, Auto's wagon had at least one Mafia. Fwog is the only one left.
  
  Frogsterking: In the middle of Day 1, the only thing stopping me from SRing him was my SR on ofmercia. That isn't a problem now.

I like the readlist here because instead of just providing reads that are based on just activity, he's also including the votecount from D1 here as well. His analysis of my slot I feel is really good because it means he believes there was a scum on the Auto wagon (which there most definitely is.) and singles out the townies first before he gets to me.

I think him offering to change votes is NAI but he's keeping within his PoE as well so it's not outlandish

[fwogcarf]

Also Frog's been scumreading/pushing me for the majority of today

we're not partners

You posted that you town read him. Shouldn't that be enough? What does you're not partners have to do with anything? Are you claiming to be a different alignment to him? But you town read him, that means you're...?

Haven't you been pairing us together today pretty frequently along with Kitty and I?

I'm telling you that's not possible because of our interactions together.

[fwogcarf]

Interaction/partner reads are important as well because they can help shape your townreads together

That's the majority of my reads as they stand right now because 1. Interactions show they can't be partners. 2. Someone's pressure on someone else suggests they can't be partners. And the most loose reasoning for it would be two or more people working collectively to get a solve.

[fwogcarf]

It's late for me so I must head off for now

[ofmercia]

Interaction/partner reads are important as well because they can help shape your townreads together

That's the majority of my reads as they stand right now because 1. Interactions show they can't be partners. 2. Someone's pressure on someone else suggests they can't be partners. And the most loose reasoning for it would be two or more people working collectively to get a solve.

Agreed, interactions are good. Just never seen a player making interaction reads of themself and another player. As a town trying to solve it's usually a given that you are not partners with any other player. Would be extremely pointless for town players to start making interaction/partner reads about themselves.