Newbie 2089 | Endgame

[ofmercia]

Also Frog's been scumreading/pushing me for the majority of today

we're not partners

I checked day 2, not a single push or scum read towards you from frogster today. He has been defending you, that's all I see.

[Frogsterking]

In order from most to least significant explanations of my Progo read:

1) Progo's activity levels maintaining consistency up to this point indicate continued or elevated interest in this situation of the game; a situation where at least half the Town is bickering, clueless and/or inactive and the conclusion of the day seems inevitable and unpromising. This is the type of situation where activity tells invert start to become inverted because town are becoming less motivated and scum are becoming motivated.

2) Progo's read on my slot from D1 to now is contrived and lacking in depth. I believe Progo's interpretations of my play is a response to the outted reads of the players Progo is planning to leave alive. Progo believes you and Kitty will be less likely to trust me because of my accusations and attempts to solve the game, and became more emboldened once Kitty made it clear today they would hammer me over Strange if given the choice.
I believe if players were less trusting of Norwee or Kitty for example, Progo would have outted with different reads which are convenient to that situation.

I have more reasons but I need to switch to my laptop because this is taking too long without a keyboard.

This shows me you're town, I can see the reasoning from your POV. I just disagree about your solve.

I've switched to a keyboard but I won't out my other explanations because it seems their existence is redundant.

There is an urgency for you to reconsider your solve now ofmercia because Kitty's townread of Strange will cost town the game. Once the player count drops to 5 with 2 scum it's unlikely you will win even with strong play.

Yeah you understand the urgency, so why are you trying to change the wagon. Fwog is showing great valor here in this last ditch defense but he's having to resort to lies like mistaking 3 votes, with a big blue vote count, with 5 votes (a hammer btw). Is that actually believable to you?

Yes fwog's show of valor is townie, it's very difficult to motivate yourself to convince another human of a downright lie when the group is already accusing you of lying. This is why Strange is struggling to even attempt to do anything in this game, and that's with far less pressure than fwog is experiencing.

Fwog's mistakes are NAI in my opinion, this is a game where it's easy to make mistakes. I think fwog is trying and doing the right thing. I don't see a scum agenda in the inconsistencies like fwog made with the amount of players required to make a hammer, there's no benefit to the scum team of convincing town of a lie like that.

This wasn't his initial reaction though. Go read his initial reaction and how it developed to this and the scum agenda becomes clear. The wagon reads as savable to me and scum do not want to lose 1 here, he has to try and save it. Maybe you advised him in the scum thread? Then in this defense it's not just "mistakes", it's unbelievable mistakes. 3 votes instead of 5 isn't believable to me. In the astronomically rare chance he did make a mistake I apologise but claiming he thought it was 5 votes seems like a cover to change a stance on something he posted.

I used to push players a lot for things like this so I understand where you're coming from. It will cost you games until you change though.

[Frogsterking]

Pushing isn't the right tactic here ofmercia because the information it's generating isn't increasing your ability to solve the game and fwog and I are being compliant.

Instead of attaching your ego to the fwog/Frog solve, assume the fwog/Frog solve is 95% correct and formulate questions based on the 5% that bothers you.

[Frogsterking]

Reading 845 in a moment.

[ofmercia]

It's fwog + kitty. Fwog + frog is just what you make it look like. Not sure what's happening but your late take on the game is the thing that'll make town lose, imo.

You mention ego but you're claiming to have solved the game with reads that only sort of make sense from your POV, after making rapid insanity votes all over the place the first what, 3 weeks of this game?

2 days left you come with a brand new impulse solve that we're all supposed to hop onto or we're throwing. From what I see most have been seeing the fwog case as more plausible. So isn't your ego in the way and not mine?

[KittyTacky]

@ofmercia @kitty

If I share something to make you more confident in my gamesolve will you sheep my vote on Strange?

Been waiting since day 2 started already.

Okay: I think you and Kitty are Town Power Roles, Progo and Strange are scum.

I will not confirm or deny whether I am a PR or not.

[KittyTacky]

I'm doubtful on the Strange tunneling but the Progo push makes even less sense to me. Progo has been so transparently town to me all game.

[KittyTacky]

Just because town is overall sleepy doesn't mean all townies are.

[KittyTacky]

It's most likely fwog, but Auto flipping town threw my entire attempt at a solve for a loop.

[KittyTacky]

I know my fwog push looks like a bus but I was genuinely swayed by the case on him.

[Frogsterking]

Okay thank you ofmercia:

1)"...reads that only sort of make sense from your POV..."

My solve makes sense internally from my point of view. I believe Progo is newbscum who was able to succeed D1 because of his humility. I believe he's struggling to appear Townie now unlike D1 because he's realized he is talented.

I also believe based on past results that my intuition works on a VT/non VT basis. so I continue to trust my intuition as a key player for my gamesolve because it's actually been doing it's job this game (albeit in the quirkiest way possible.) This is also why I'm confident in my ability to hit pr as scum.

Regardless of its extrinsic validity my current solve is internally on solid ground.

2) "rapid insanity votes...first 3 weeks of game?"

Yes I wasn't smooth and I made multiple things more difficult, I'm sorry for my weakness as a player this way

3) "So isn't your ego in the way and not mine?"

Most likely it's the combination of both our egos here creating obstacles. I believe your ego is making you resistant to challenging the fwog solve which is dangerous because there is a diffusion of responsibility and complacency surrounding this fwog wagon and it's bad Townplay to limp along with it. I don't recognize what my own ego is up to at the moment and I'm sure my ego is on the verge of ruining something too.

[Frogsterking]

I'm doubtful on the Strange tunneling but the Progo push makes even less sense to me. Progo has been so transparently town to me all game.

Yes I believe you are the mark for scum. And I understand why you townread Progo.

Why

do you townread Strange??

[ofmercia]

That's fine I don't think you're ruining anything. Was just responding to your accusations of my reads. Heck you might even be right about progo + strange. Who knows for sure. All I know I have are my reads and what I see/feel is happening.

I would sheep as I did day 1 when I didn't even want to elim auto but voted anyway. But it's getting to the point of less room for error here and I am quite confident fwog is scum. We'll get the partner later (there are a lot of options tbh).

I felt strongly about fwog being red even before he started seriously defending the wagon, but the wagon defense is hella sloppy. For example this page top (850). It's just completely false, I checked multiple times and cannot find you scumreading or pushing fwog at all today or anything related to a push for the entire day 2.

[ofmercia]

I'm doubtful on the Strange tunneling but the Progo push makes even less sense to me. Progo has been so transparently town to me all game.

Yes I believe you are the mark for scum. And I understand why you townread Progo.

Why

do you townread Strange??

This is a good catch, and I believe it can maybe make you see strange being town and kitty being scum that knows strange is town. Which supports my fwog + kitty theory.

[Frogsterking]

I'm thinking about 845 and ofmercia's stance on fwog. I'll most likely sleep on it and post when I have something.

I believe Kitty's townread of Strange is either a idiosyncratic phenomenon or a TMI tell. I agree it looks just like a TMI tell and it's possible I'm mistaking the forest for the trees. I'm expecting there is some townie explanation for the read.

[NorwegianboyEE]

@ofmercia @kitty

If I share something to make you more confident in my gamesolve will you sheep my vote on Strange?

Been waiting since day 2 started already.

Okay: I think you and Kitty are Town Power Roles, Progo and Strange are scum.

Protip:
Don’t do this.

"I think you are the power roles"

[NorwegianboyEE]

Don’t get me wrong, i think Frog is town here.

[NorwegianboyEE]

100% a scum in Kitty/Strange based off of this. I have townreads for a good amount of people that I'm comfortable with based mainly off the votecount.

Plus the fact that I don't think Norwegian, Ofmercia, or Frogster make that Tist kill.

I’m ok with killing Kitty obviously.
If you town wanna vote there?

[NorwegianboyEE]

That's textbook definition of what they call a scum slip.

Oh no, not the scumslip stuff again…

[ofmercia]

Don’t get me wrong, i think Frog is town here.

Same.

[PenguinPower]

Votecount 2.05

fwogcarf

(3): ofmercia, ProgoWoshua, KittyTacky

StrangeMatter

(1): Frogsterking

KittyTacky

(1): NorwegianboyEE

Not Voting

(2): StrangeMatter, fwogcarf

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to eliminate.

Deadline

: (expired on 2022-03-09 11:21:56)

[ProgoWoshua]

So... What are we waiting for?

[NorwegianboyEE]

I’m not that confident in the flip anymore personally.

[Frogsterking]

I was kind of solvey last night so now it's your turn Norwee

[NorwegianboyEE]

But i dun wanna >:(